I am totally with you for all of your comments. What I am trying to fit a pattern in a specific tf is not for validating/invalidating patterns but for find out conditions for fakeout after entry and terminate a trade if not fit the plan. If a pattern is valid in a higher tf, it should normally valid in lower tm.
I quickly went through the patterns in the tread during the weekend, especially TMB’s patterns, and got the impression that the difference could be on the BC leg. For example, the BC legs were all at least two bars (quite some patterns were two legs in TMB successful charts), and most 5 to 13 bars (an extreme was more than 30 bars). The AB and CD legs were actually quite flexible, as long as they are symmetrical.
A valid pattern does not mean a winning pattern, which is the reason to have all the other things considered as you listed.
I am going to put an order for the completed gartley.
The convergence is 361.8%CD/88.6XA. It also at the site of a daily trend line and has an extra AB=1.27CD (green line). A concern is the strong EURO so I will wait for the close to decide the entry point other than a pending order.
Turned out Euro is too strong to stop (EUR/AUD 30 m gartley and butterfly). It would be better keeping an eye on 200%CD/61.8XA gartley, or even 261.8CD/78.6XA gartley, co-converging with 314%CD butterfly and just above the main trend line HH of 23 Nov and 20 Jan (red).
Oh, I see… But if you have entered on say the completion of a gartley, for example, then I normally let it run until I hit my target or sl, trailing the stop along the way to lock in profits… In fact its because I trail the stop, I sometimes get a little too close and get stopped out. If I see other conditions that invalidate the direction of the move, then I pull the trade manually, but 99% of the time, the sl beats me to it!
Are you saying you re-analyse the entry pattern itself once you have already entered the trade? The reason I ask is, I think it would be great to be able to call a losing trade as early as possible, but can’t see how you would do this once you decide the pattern is valid and enter? Would you not be then re-analyzing a pattern that you have called valid and negating it, in which case, maybe the entry was incorrect?
I would rather enter long and take 30 pips off this trade, with a SL of 15 pips…entry at blue circle…there’s alot of convergence in that area…(however, I won’t take it, as I prefer to having a greater than 2:1 RRR)
I have been trying to reply to your posts over the last two days, but I keep getting a strange error… hopefully this one will go through…
Great trades on the cd legs! I have a couple of q’s:
when do you decide to draw your lines form wick to wick/body to body, or in your case body to wick? just trying to understand how you have drawn your lines…
I take it the first red diagonal line is the XA leg?
Lastly, how are you determining that the bc leg has completed? I normally wait for the CD leg to reach atleast B’s level before concluding that the BC leg is complete, however I can tell you are making the call a lot earlier than that as you are entering the trade well before.
Looking at the 8 hour chart for the Euro, it appears to me that the long term down trend was broken last week. We can also see that the trend line has not be retested.
Conversly, we can see on the 4 hour chart the break of the down trend and the support of the newly establishing uptrend.
Combined with the fundamentals, the Euro having managed to withstand the pressure of the crisis to a large extent, (expectaions were that the Euro should be much lower), I am wondering if my long position on the Euro is a good idea. I just dont think at this stage it is worth risking a short position. If the trend breaks, clearly this position would need to be changed…
Thanks mate, my question was really a little more generic… I was looking to switch to taking long setups and passing on the shorts… eg, looking for bearish or bullish gartleys/bats etc… but yes, absoloutely need to wait for a dip.
Just wondering what others will be doing, still looking for bearish gartleys etc?
Well, rather embarrassingly, I have one more question… how dumb am I???
After psoting ‘I think we should be going long on the Euro’, I somehow, not quite sure exactly how, came to the conclusion that I would sell the EuroBGP off the long term down trend… now I am a few pips down and hoping I will get enough of a retracement to pull out even…
:50: words fail me!
just as I was typing, the EurBgp just hovered into my break even space and I managed to pull the trade without loss, phew!
looking at the EURBGP 240, I wouldnt touch it until we get a clean break of the downtrend, or we get a proninant bounce off the down trend… the latter would suggest we would get a break on the Euro uptrend…
There is a weak bearish bat on EG, the B retracement is not exactly 50%. Yesterday we far exceeded ATR, which is not to say we retrace, in fact it could be bullish. The down trendline appears to have been broken.
There is enough to give me a glimmer of hope on the balance, but I’d struggle to justify a new position. Getting tired of the final runner position not following through, but I have to trade the plan.
ou Contrare! I thought your trade idea came through picture perfect! Here is what I mean:
Firstly, our graphs are slightly different as mine doesnt show a break of the down trend yet… but leave that aside for a sec… on second look, the graphs are the same, I just move my lines when it isnt broken and forms a resistance point…
Looking at the EURBGP, I would have been looking to take profits on touching the bottom part of the wedge… so as soon as a line hit it, pull your profits. The likelyhood of going any lower is pretty slim, this line has been tested twice before. After you placed your trade, a change happened, ie the EUR broke its resistance, so more support to take profits.
If you were hoping to cross the bottom wedge line, I personally would have done it with a very tight SL and a small amount of your trade.
But I would say you picked a winner!
Personally, I wouldnt take any bearish position at the moment, despite my earlier mishap.
Agree, not worth taking a new position until the market has decided which way it wants to go.
