ok, now the downtrend is broken… ish. the line is broken, I was lucky enough to have traded the breakout… (only 10 pips targeted and hit) 
but now it remains to be seen if it is a real break or a fake… it could end up another resistance point…
at the time of wriing, its dropping right back down through the resistance line, but time will tell… it it continues, Modo’s bat could shape up quite well…
Modo et al, anyone taking the short?
Yes, I did cover 2/3rd of my position at good levels yesterday. Worst case i make about 10 bps if the runner stops out, but I do think there is a chance we break the bottom of that wedge, 3rd push on the daily, down to around 0.8130. GBP looks strong to me. Agree probablilites are low, hence only small residual position.
I decided to take this trade…and got 31 pips:
Trade on secondary account:
I still have 1/3 of my position in EG long…around 70 pips right now…but SL to BE+50:
Nice! the long term down trend could break on this one too… it’s right on the line now… and as far as I can tell, still going strong…
another pair to go bull on, if the break holds
Nice work Stupip.
Here is a possible CD leg for you to trade on the AU weekly butterfly, entry around 1.04 at tl support and broken tl test. target 1.14
That’s pretty…I jumped into a D trade on EA just now…doesn’t look great…
I don’t like trading at D…but will give it a try…
Yeah, I know what you mean. D is crowded and you are standing in front of price, rather than going with the flow with CD trading.
CD trading is really breakout trading. I used to do it with ABCD’s of 0.382 BC retracements as the stop requirement was smaller therefore better RR (as you were saying earlier), and the shallower the pullback the better the follow through. I did it on H1 and would wait for H1 close above the range before entering to try to avoid fakeouts. I still like it, but I don’t do it any more, not sure why really haha, but I do see the appeal.
you got about enough room to take 30 pips between the price and the trend line… if the price swings in your favour and against the up trend… good luck!
Yes, I would monitor the entry bar for its close, which is one of the rule that TMB uses to find out fakeout and keep losses short. So if I know a pattern is a 4H pattern, I would monitor the 1H entry bar. If the entry bar closes positively (based on the entry), I would allow the trade carry on, otherwise, find a exit as soon as possible and get out with a couple of pips/ without loss/with small loss based on the situations. But if I think this pattern is a 1H pattern, I would then monitor the 15m chart for the entry bar.
Apart from this, I am also trying to find a way to figure out fakeout for a trade that would not reach 23% or 38% AD retraceemnt (I have not get it yet, which I would like to get help from you and others), which may also need to monitor a chart based on the time frame of the pattern. if a pattern is not draw in a right tf, the information may not accurate.
What can I say…crappy D trading…going back to the CD trades…not good enough RRR and probability for me.
try only taking the D’s when they are in favour of the direction of the major trends… that way, you have a better chance of success…They may come about less often, but when they do, they hit nicely
I see AU (AUS/USD) moving up towards the 1.0700 level (so 200+ pips)…so i’m looking for a good entry…
I think of maybe entering here:
This is where I think price could go…
My AUD/USD 1H
HI Stupip, as comparing to your chart, an anternative may be the 787.6XA/200%CD, which co-located with the weekly trend line (blue)? 61.8XA is an option but seemd the down-trend is strong at the moment.
update: i entered at 61.8XA as the 15 m chart entry bar respected the fib level.
EUR maybe strong at the moment, but it is likely to meet resistance aroung 1.30740 (EUR/USD, 1H gartley/butterfly)) and looking at the weekly chart, a bearish gartley for the D at 1.24276-1.25324 is on the way. Which way to go is really a question in a couple of weeks.
I think I worded this really badly I was trying to suggest that a validity criteria for a harmonic pattern for this pair should be that it is a bullish pattern. So far the bullish trend line holds. I am suggesting that a bearish pattern should not be traded as it would be going against the trend.
Sorry for my misunderstood. Indeed most bearish patterns failed recently (and there are more bearish patterns in a bullish market).
Hey Stu,
If you were/are still selling EURBGP, that must worked out well for you
just a question for all, how are you guys handling your SL’s? I am finding I either get too close, or if I leave too wider gap, I risk a bigger loss… so far, I have been lucky in that my trades have always come back towards my target, but sometimes after going around 25 pips down…
Am I just being too over cautious with my SL’s? I find any less than 25 pips kicks me out, with BE+2. I just dont like that 25 pip down feeling :15:
PS, personally I’m still bullish on the Euro (still on the bullish trend line), but now bearish on EUBGP (didnt hold the break of the bearish trend line), (just got booted out of a EURBGP sell at only +15 pips grrrr) - Still +ve is always better than -ve I guess!
But it is so volitile… so I’m going to halve my stake on trades to withstand the wider fluctuations…
