Argh, that sux, you just got FXCM’d haha, just kidding…no consipracy, just CPI, headline a little weaker, but trimmed mean stonger. Liquidity dries up over the news, sorry they tagged you out, but nice trading none the less.
Personally, I am more concerned with fib proportions, price action in the PRZ, and the pattern’s place within the broader market structure, than exact fib levels or fib convergence.
I hope you are right Stu as I still have my little short on, but I also see the possibility of the 0.50 B retracement setting up a bearish bat 0.8375 where there is a bearish crown, broken TL resistance etc etc. Would love to be wrong.
This one seems working for CD leg, so far. EUR/GBP 1H. The point is the same, against the main trend will most likely fail, like my previous three entries. :26:
Stupip, do you think this wild movement was caused by news or by a fat guy who deliberately forced most traders out? Can some big fish control the market like that (one or twice a week, seems remembering some one suggested)?
Just one thing, I really suggest you learn the various pattern’s proportions. For example, that EG had a 0.50% B retracement, so set up a BAT. Bats terminate at 0.886 XA - which is where we finally turned (around 0.8383), so even though you may have had better fib convergence elsewhere, you want to be aware of these ratios. They are all distinguished by the first retracement (ie how far B retraces XA)
Finally, if you look at the EG short, as I posted earlier in the day, it had the correct bat proportions, broken TL test, bearish crown (ie, retest of high prior to trend change of correction), time of day was good, supply to the left etc.
Yet I STILL did not take the trade as I already have a small position, we had not done ATR, and have been making higher lows. I have not traded all week. Granted, I am conservative, but as TMB states on the very first post, the most important tool of the trader is PATIENCE. Any good trader will tell you that is probably their most important trait.
I know I probably sound conceited, but it’s taken a long time for me to put these pieces together, and I am just trying to pass on some of the lessons I have learnt the hard way.
Many thanks for the advice, modo. I really appreciate those comments. I am still in the process learn the deciplines and it really not easy especially when I am in loose position. For example, I am currently short the AUD/USD 1H potential gartely CD leg, it is 45+ pips, so I can be patient (or greedy?) but if I am loosing to near nagative, I would be hurry to close it, but just dont know when to stop (should be close earlier).
Ideally you would know before you enter the trade where you will exit and what you will do under the varioius different scenarios. That is called trading. Making decisions on the run, on impulse…that’s gambling. It’s not easy to make good objective decisions when in a trade - even for the pros - better to formulate a plan when you are out of the market with a clear head. But hey, it takes time to find your trading plan, then time to stick to it. That is the journey.
BUT, if you do trade a more discretional style, I think you need to be a very good student of yourself. You need to constantly evaluate your mental state. Are you fearful, euphoric etc. Generally I have found euphoria as an excellent signal to take profit haha. If you find yourself bragging about trades, almost guaranteed it’s time to book some profit.
If you are fearful, what are you fearful of? Giving back profits? Taking a loss? Again, a trading plan will help you with this. You may be afraid of giving back unrealised gains, but if you consult your trading plan you might find reassurance that you are doing the right thing holding the position.
As for your AU exit, you might want to consider if you are trading with or against the trend. One might be more inclined to hold a postion if trading with the trend, but more inclined to take profit if trading countertrend. Also, beware the fear of missing out. You will never get every pip, and your goal should not be home runs, just chip away and accumulate pips.
I think you have a good eye for the patterns. Keep it up.
I do not have much experience for a sound trade plan. For example (for the AUD/USD), my original TP is 100%CD (above 100XA, for AB=CD so go to 100%CD other than 100XA. but another thought is that 61.8XA is a main resistant so I am struggling to decide if I should go with the origianl plan or take profit at 61.8% for safety reason. But I did trail the stop loss at a lower FL when it passes the next fl. So I will most likely be knocked out one FL lower if I dont interfere.
Thanks for the encouragement. The thing is most of the patterns I recognized is agaisnt the trend. I am also struggle to decide which direction is a real trend, and which one is anti-trend. I feel that at the end,it is not the pattern but the trend decides if one will win or loss. Pattern is just looks like a feeling better factor (fib and ab=cd is important though).
