By re-reading your comments, I realized that I did not have a plan under various different scenarios. I only mainly have one scenario, which maybe why I am always strugglling. From now on I will have several scenarios decided before trading so I know how toreact accordingly other than test my heart every time.
Excellent point for me but I almost missed.
Hi,
I totoally agree with you, especially since there are always multiple trends in a currency pair. So you might look at say a weekly chart, 8 hr, 4hr etc and find a trendā¦ These are the oneās I call āMajor trendsā, these I find you have to be particularly aware of and always respect.
Then you have the sub trends that go up and down with market breaths. These are the ones that the patterns may or may not blast through, depending on the strength of the movement. These may go with or against the major trends, I think harmonic patterns expoit these minor trends by indentifying the turn (reversal) points.
I think itās the major trend lines that will usually trump patterns, so its always good to be aware where they are, as your profit taget may be past that line and I find its better to pull out at the line. If the major trendline gets broken, the direction of the whole pair can chage against you, so good to be aware of this also. This may lead you to pull a trade at max profits rather than get a bad retracement against you.
Having said all this, at the moment, you may have noticed I have not been putting up gartley charts etc, I am looking into another method, whereby I focus more on trends, channels, RSI and MACDā¦ as well as the harmonics and elliott. So far, its going very well, I have to say much more consistantā¦(in fact, when I follow the rules strictly, the worst case senario is a +2pip stop out. I am getting an extreamly high success rate, but its a little early to tell if it is viable.
Although Stuās cd trades seem to be quite consistant too 
Iām also intrigued by this because of the much larger target pip gains
One problem I get is trades are quite short lived, and the max pips I have gained so far from a single trade is 30. Having said that, the extreamly high success ratio means I can trade more lots wtih greater confidence.
I will let anyone who wants to know about this method if I find it continues to workā¦and is viable. so far, I am targeting a certain daily profit gain.
Hope all that made senseā¦ I think the late nights have been interfering with my clarity of expression lately!
Hi Modo,
Do you have a decent trading plan template? I have one that I pulled off the net, I just get a feeling my plan could be better, but not quite sure where tha gaps may beā¦ I guess I just dont know what I dont knowā¦
This one would definately have kicked me out tooā¦ but I was using a manual stop.
Just think, that so could have just as easily stayed down on the CPI news, (which I was anticipating, to make that decision worse!) and I would have lost just over 1kā¦ phew!
open the weekly charts, zoom out, step a few paces back from the pc. If you canāt determine the trend, there isnāt one.
Sorry Sanjoz, I do not. I just made my own. I think the trick is to try to distill it as simply as possible. Here is mine if you did not see it the other day modoforex: How
yes, please! I would like to know your method. Combination of different tools and weight on the trend is what I most interesited in.
Wow! mine is on about 5 sheets of A4 paper! lol (nice paper)ā¦ Thanks, it will give me something to do over the wet weekend!@
The challange is which direction it is going to be. Even it is clear of the trend of weekly, daily, 4H and 1H, my next trade could be still anti-current trend. For example, my last AUD/USD is against the 1H, 4H, 1D and 1W trend, and now I entered a long, which is then with those trend. But I dont know if the current trend is going with me or not, becuase each entry is anti-current (very short) trend. Here is the chart to illustrate.
Anti-trend trade: entry anti-BC trend)
with-trend trade: entry anti-BC trend (previous CD trend).
I agree with Modo hereā¦ I thought I would just give a very high level overview of drawing tendlines, in case anyone is interested. This is just intended to be very basic, so sorry if I am stating the obviousā¦ I learnt some of this the hard way, so here are the basics:
To determine a major trend, I start with the monthly, weekly, 8hr and 4hr, these will give you the overall theme of what a currency pair is doing. If you cannot find a consistant trend between these charts (bar the monthly), the likelyhood is that it has been broken and a new trend is probably being established. There is also the possibility of long term ranging, but that is a little advanced to go into here.
Always make sure your line has been tested TWICE before you determine it is a trend, this means there must be at least three touchpoints to the line. If the price leaves the line significantly, thats fine it doesnt mean the price wont return and bounce off again - look at your charts you will find good examples of this in every currency and every timeframe.
Remember, if the price line is consistant, you may be able to place a channel around it, ie a line touching the tops and the bottoms. If you can do this, ALWAYS do itā¦ the price will bounce both walls.
Always draw downtrends on top of the bars and uptrends at the bottom of the bars - Never reverse this rule.
Then you can start on the 2hr and lower charts all the way to 5minsā¦ here you will find there may be conflicting ātrendsā. within a major trend channel, you will get minor up and down trends. the rules to draw these are the same as above. Because of the two test rule, you may find it is harder to find a trend hereā¦ be patient, if there is no trend, then there simply isnt oneā¦, the market will be ranging (more about ranging later).
you will find that in a major uptrend, there will be a significant minor downtrends (and vice versa). That is fine and valid, just ensure you know where the two meet and understand that you should ALWAYS treat the MAJOR trend with more wieght than the minor. as the price approaches the wedge of a major and an minor trend, be cautious of any trades you are already inā¦ you just dont know which way it will breakā¦ I prefer to exit, let the break happen and then trade that break.
A good example has just occured on the five min chart AUD. The Major trend (cannot be seen clearly on this chart) is an uptrend. The first minor trend (red line) is broken, and the new minor uptrend is established (three touch points). NOTE: three touchpoints means the price bars MUST LEAVE the line and retest it at least TWICE before it is a trend.
Thats it for nowā¦ I apologise if this is far too basic or stating the the obvious.
Hey NBFX
I think I was writing my āessayā on trendlines while you sent this. If you consider major and minor trends, does that help?
Thanks! Itās always helpful. I have learned the twice test rule, for a startā¦
Excellent summary for trend!
I placed this two trades today, one on USDCAD (M5) and other on NZDUSD (M5 detected but very big, so I show it on H1), both of them are Crabs. The green area is the first take profit, the end of yellow area is the third take profit and the end of green area is the 2nd take profit. The stop is bellow the D point, at about 5% more of the retracement (i mean, if the retracement is 161.8%, then the stop is at 161.8%+161.8%*5%
Ok, so both of the trades failed 
good is that Iām demo trading until I start being constant with my trades.
May I ask you how do you determine that a pattern contains the AB=CD? if you can show me with a chart of lets say, a butterfly, marking the butterfly and also marking the AB=CD inside the butterfly would be great
Thanks!
Hi Medisoft, here is an example of a gartley/butterfly and AB=CD, and 1.27 and 1.618 CD extensions. The red bars (left red bar is AB, right red bar is CD, they are of the same length, hence AB=CD. If CD extended to 1.27x and 1.618x of ABs, that 1.27CD (the blue bar) and 1.618CD (black bar) (but all belong to the AB=CD pattern)ā¦ you can find many AB=CD, AB=1.27CD, AB=1.618 CD et al in any time frame chart. You can find plenty of AB=CD in the charts in this thread.
If you read the book Trade what you see recommanded by TMB, you will see all the definitions and examples there.
Hope this helps.
Taking a riskā¦
Entry: .9218
SL: .9180
TP1: .9316
TP2: .9450
[B][U]
Update: [/U][/B]
[B]SL: .9190
TP: .9450[/B]
Ok, think iāve given every one enough time to message meā¦ I will begin Teaching Live on Monday January 30th 2012 (7am EST) Cya Soon (Must have Skype and Mikogo downloaded).
Note.: If I have not messaged you with the info simply msg me again.
Not much move for a good patterns. Here is a EUR/AUD 30m gartley. also find a really small guy, EUR/GBP 5m, target 61.8XA/161.8%CD. CD trade.
Why are you jumping to the CD trade? : )
Itās risky you knowā¦
(I would look at 4 HR chart for CD tradesā¦and 5-30 min for entry)
