Well executed. Generally, 222’s will send price back down to the .5 of XA. this is verified in your chart where you can see some significant consolidation around that level. Aditionally, what Time Frame are you using?
it is on the 1min TF which is why I was a bit skeptical about it’s success… i only gave it a shot because it seemed to be forming nicely but I have been faked out various times on this TF so I’ve moved up to looking for patterns on the 30min and use the 5min to plan my entries and stops…
would you mind posting a photo of your USD/CAD trade? I’ve looked through the recent pages and can’t seem to find it in the thread, my eyes are failing me as I’ve been looking at charts for the past 13 hours haha…
thanks for your comment, sir!
Your X isn’t low enough, it has to be the bottom of a swing low. Otherwise, it looks good regarding the S/R levels & Fib’s.
May I suggest: (AUD/JPY 1 Hour chart)
I’d go long @ 81.03 for a 15 pip move.
N.B. look at the extremely significant divergence between higher highs in price versus the lower highs on your MACD… its screaming at you to go short immediately, but your setup tells you to go long. Food for thought
N.B. #2; It seems valid, but price isn’t necessarily oscillating, nor is it respecting the fib levels to a significant degree… use caution here!
I tried to post but I don’t think it worked. Here are two different analysis I have of GBPUSD, which one do you think is the correct analysis?? it could be either way right???
thanks for your input!!1111
it can be either way, yes, and these are great drawings of yours. By the way, this is what I think of your daily chart;
http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/21934-30-pips-day-keeps-your-money-bay-640.html#post367613
hope it helps, stay tuned for more
PJ
good morning, here is a developing 30-min 222 that has a projected convergence at the 100% CD expansion and 88.6% XA retrace level.
My current prediction is on the GBP versus the USD where the AB = CD in a very symmetrical manner.
Any questions, give me a shout
Hey jong,
Gonna ask you cause you seem to know what you’re doing, I’ve been identifying gartleys and ab=cd patterns for about a month down, but most of my projections are on the larger time scale, that is, 4h/daily
You seem to find them on the 30 min charts, what advice would you give for looking for patterns on shorter t/f? I know that a lot of times you find patterns inside of patterns so you should look for the smaller one inside of a bigger pattern to find an optimal PRZ but I never seem to find any smaller ones!!!! (only ABCD patterns)
Also do you just trade gartleys or do you have an understanding of the other animals (bat, crab, butterfly, 3 drive, etc.)
Thanks!!!111
Edit: and what resources do you refer to while you study if you don’t mind me asking, right now i found a copy of carney’s book but there is so much out there it’s intimidating hahaah.
Thank you for your kind remarks!
I sometimes use two different ‘zig-zag’ indicators, set them to be extremely wide, and zoom out to help fid potential patterns. Formerly, i solely relied on the ‘222’ pattern due to its lower risk and higher certainty. Lately, however, i’ve been seeking more butterfly patterns due to their frequent apparitions. I am familiar with The Three Drive pattern but I prefer to trade it as a channel, wait for the breakout and retest, then go in that direction. It does limit the winning amount, but it does maximize the surety of direction within the trade.
As for resources, I simply googled Gartley levels and have been experimenting with the specific rules he followed. Furthermore, I have started to read ‘trade what you see’ and have ordered ‘Bloombergs Visual Guide to Price Action’ because it looked incredibly informative, and a great tangible reference for that matter, when i spent a couple of hours with it in the book store.
I will post an example of the ‘zig zags’ that I use.
Zig-Zag settings:
Red: 4/5/3
Black: 12/5/3
Occasionally, however, i will remove these and find even more hidden patterns. These are solid tools to train the eye.
Before:
After:
This is not how my charts would normally look, but it is to emphasize their usefulness. I only penned those that had a CD expansion value of 100% of AB (AB=CD) for ‘222’s’, one at 127.2%, most butterfly’s at 161, etc. I only show those that hit a respective expansion level.
Without the Zig-Zag:
And now I’ll show a pictorial representation of each Harmonic.
Green = 100%
Red = 127.2%
Black = 161 %
pink = 200% (Extreme level and should be used with caution; however, if price rejects it, it will generally move a significant amount)
It must be noted that I stringently drew the AB lines from one extreme to the next and drew point ‘D’ touching its respective expansion line. I.E, i did not ‘skew’ the drawings to make them look like they fit perfectly in some occasions.
Also note the pink 200% is not all too symmetrical… in this case, I would be skeptical to take the trade.
This is only on the 1-hour chart with one currency pair chosen at random (AUD/JPY)
I hope this helps with your future endeavours!
EUR/JPY 30 Min
AB=CD 100% expansion coincides perfectly with the 88.6% XA retrace.
The trade so far… (note how it bounced at 15:00, and the symmetry)
Closed. I set my TP to close out the trade slightly below the 61.8 retrace level, mostly because this area has shown significant resistance in the past few weeks, for a 23.8 pip win after the speed has been accounted for.
Thanks jongp2. I got a lot more to learn…
you’re welcome, and I am glad I can help
–PJ
EUR/JPY 30 MIN (cont.)
Butterfly in the making?
100% expansion of the ‘new’ CD leg has FOUR nearing resistances…
- 100% expansion from most recent D to most recent up-swing move (New A)
- 161.8% expansion of current CD leg. this would essentially move the D from 99.8 to 99.5 (green triangle)
- 127.2% retrace from most recent XA (Blue) (X being 99.75, and A being 100.83)
- 61.8% retrace from long(er) term XA (Red) (X being 98.32 and A being 101.3)
The only factor to keep an eye on is the 100% ‘D’ expansion when treating the BLUE XA as if they were the RED ‘BC’
To your interest, there currently is a 3-drive setup, along with many other coinciding patterns, on the 30 min JPY
USD/CHF 30 min
Thankfully my TP was only 15 pips…
Total move was 23 before the news hit and skyrocketed the price against us.
Eur/USD 1 H
Update:
127.2 retrace of BC, 100% of XA, within 15 pips of 100% CD expansion, 200% of our failed (black) ‘222’ and/or AB=CD (making it AB=2CD) and its the EUR/USD… aka extremely harmonic.
Contrarily, there is an almost perfect head and shoulders… to break or not to break? (dailyTF)
My prediction is a small move to the upside then a significant move to the downside.
I’m calling this one a Bat, that is, the whole pattern should finish at an XD .886 retracement, charactaristic of bats is that XA retracement lands on either 0.382 or 0.5, this one obviously landing on a 0.5.
!!! S/L will be placed under X as soon as we see upward price action around the .886 level.
For these patterns we look for the convergence of three different levels:
XD 0.886
AB=CD (or 1.27AB=CD, 1.618AB=CD, or 2AB=CD)
BC extension (at least 1.618 extension)
I didn’t label it but I expect PRZ 2 to be where price turns around.
Sound good Jong?
