What is the “roll” category? Are you being deducted for something?
elephant,
I’m pretty sure it refers to the difference in interest rates between the countries in the pair. Might want to check in the school that they offer through this website. It is a wealth of knowledge and where I originally discovered this thread about 3 weeks ago.
First I would like to briefly introduce myself to the thread. After going through the Babypips school and being referred to this thread about three weeks ago, I read the whole thing from the beginning. PHEW! A LOT of info in here. Great contributions by TMoney, Sweet, rado, sniper, etc. I’ve been blowing through a demo account wondering if I have been even close to knowing what I’m doing then for some reason, looking at T’s screen shots of building the Hydra and ALL the support/resistance lines is starting to make sense so I brought up a couple different timeframes for this pair and started drawing lines all over the place! HAHA One quick note: after reading through his posts and looking at charts with 50 lines running through at all angles I was thinking, “That looks pretty confusing. How could you get a better idea of what is going on?” But the weird thing is, I started drawing the Gartleys, trendlines, support/resistance lines, pivot points and MAs and wouldn’t you know it; I did start to see different “zones” forming. Of course I could be way off which is why I’m going to start posting my rationales on here. I would like any and all feedback you all would be willing to give. One last thing: I can’t figure out how to post a TorS chart on here so if anyone can let me know how to do that I would greatly appreciate it. I plan on working my demo account for a little longer then I’m going to start with a micro account at FXCM. I’m really trying to focus on the process so here we go:
I know TMoney already did this analysis for his last trade. I’m not trying to piggyback off his analysis but I did look at this pair after reading his post and came up with a trade/few trades.
Staring with the weekly chart we seem to be consolidating right around the midpoint of a range from about 58-69 going back to October 09. We’re hovering right around the 200MA.
On the daily chart starting at the low of 6/1 touching the low of 9/5 if you draw a trendline up through today it looks like it is creating a support level right around 63. If you continue on that slope it looks like the support zone will be about 63.1-63.35 over the next day or two. If you draw the top of a channel touching the high of 7/5 touching the high of 9/19 you will see that price is slightly less than the mid point now in a pretty significant downtrend over the last five days.
On the 4 hour, starting at the low of 2200 Arizona Time of 9/4 to the high of the 8MA on about 9/18 2200, B on 9/19 2200, C on 9/21 0600 it creates a possible D where the 127 of CD and the 618 of XA overlap at about 63.28. Although this would be a violation of the trendline on the h4 on the daily it will coincide with the lower trendline and create a support “zone” possibly for a hydra between the 618 of XA at 63.46 and the 707 at 63.14. There are also two static support lines in this area (S1, S2 PP) and the 200EMA. Looking at the zone from the previous hydra I’m going to start buying when price hits the top of the zone (618) using 1% and add positions in 1% increments up to 5% max throughout the zone. As far as exactly when I’m going to buy, I’m not sure to be honest. I’m going to use a visual stop at 63 if the pattern fails. Going for a 30 pip move on the reaction at this D point (Judging by the previous swings on the 4 hour chart, if they continue and hit this D, there have been about 75 point reactions so I’m feeling pretty good about 30pips).
I know this is a lot to read but I would definitely appreciate anyone that takes the time to go through this, brings up the charts, and offers any feedback they would like and in the meantime, I’m either going to figure out how to post the charts from TorS or I’m going to start a demo acct. at FXCM.
I look forward to hearing from you guys and gals and also to start posting more often. I’m off to bed. Have a good night and happy trading.
I am a rebellious dropout. I went half way and then demo-ed since last year >:)
Thank you for the quick information!
press print screen, paste that image on paint and “voila” 
My local time is east…
T-You’re a genius! It really is that easy…Going to try another analysis tonight (with charts) haha. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
I started by making the relative strength chart with 8 major currencies listed like TMoney recommended in post 6716. I came up with usdcad as the two weakest out of the bunch so that is what I focused my analysis on tonight.
Starting with the weekly chart you can see that price is pretty close and moving steadily towards a support level of around 94.5 reached twice in a double bottom the weeks of 4/25/11 and 7/25/11.
Looking at the daily chart there is a clear down trend starting from a high on 6/4 at about 1.0445 to where we are now. Utilizing trendlines from h to h and l to l, price recently bounced off the lower line around 9/14 and has been retracing ever since. Hence, we are in a temporary short-term upward move. It looks like we have a while to break the previous minor high (retracement) in the major downward trend of about .9915. The upper trendline happens to also line up perfectly with the 382 of XA if you draw fibs from the high on 6/4 to the low on 9/14, wick to wick.
Moving to the h4 chart:
Price seems to be increasing steadily up towards the upper trendline which again coincides with the 382 of XA and the 1618 of CD if you draw a gartley from the high back in the beginning of June. What price should hit on the way though is a perfect convergence of the 100 CD and 886 XA at .9883 from the most recent minor high. I am planning on dropping down to the m30 chart below to find an entry point to hopefully ride the wave up for our 30 pips after price bounces off the D on the m30 at around .9777 and heads back up towards our D on the h4.
Here’s the m30:
Have a good night and happy trading.
fikrizulkifli, I have similar chart. But my D is at the 886 of XA
eddie,
Looks good to me. That’s where I was planning on buying also. Looks like it missed that D so far by about 7 pips. I have it increasing to about .9883 on the h4 for my next D point. Did you take a look at that time frame also?
hey frikrizu…c point cant beat a…
30 winners since the last loss…
marry xmass
well done demon
what was wrong with the EU chart?
hey fikrizulkifli, did u consider using the 88.6 as D as it shows confluence with the 2.0 of AB
quick question assuming that both C’s hold and price goes up
When you have multiple potential B’s which one would hold more weight when you get two different D the one with the retracement of the XA or the first swing I know that both in this picture have D at the 38.2% but this is more for future reference.
looks good to to me but if C dosn’t hold and price dosn’t break B then we have another pattern from what I see
If price levels do reach your expected point D, it will reach an all 4+ month high! From my chart, i believe it is still forming and I am expecting it to decline. But only time can tell!
