I’ve gone through this thread over the last few weeks too. TMB you’re doing a great job and a lot of the other posters on here have been very helpful. Hopefully I can make some positive contributions here too. I’m not advanced enough to trade C to D and hydra yet but I’m sure I’ll make my way up.
I’ve been analysing the EUR/JPY and noticed these patterns on the 30 minute below. I’ve circled 4 convergence points in red (at 104.239, 103.983, 103.876, 103.782) but I’m leaning towards the highest one at the XA 1.272 - I’ve drawn in 2 butterflies for this point. TMB did mention EUR/JPY has major resistance at the .500 and typically if price does not respect this area it will continue towards the extreme levels eg 1.272+. This level also aligns with the R2 pivot point. The next 2 levels coincide with daily (orange) or intraday (pink) support/resistance levels or trend lines as well as fib levels.
I’m still a novice and I’ve done this analysis when the market is closed so I’m not sure if things will still be similar when it opens. Appreciate any feedback.
The EUR/JPY pattern took quite a while to play out. I noticed however a couple of candles closed above the fib line before it retraced around 46 pips back through the fib level. According to TMB, would we manually close the trade out if this happens?
It has convergence with the 78.6% of the first XA (X price 1.28756) and also 38.2% of the second XA (drawn from the peak of the 8 period MVA back on 18 October at price 1.31088) with the CD 100% level. Any opinions?
I found this set up and has just made some pips. I am not sure whether this is the correct D? Is it coming back at first convergence 1.618 again and will retrace? This is EUR/USD 1 Hr chart. I have decided to trade at 1.29175 at 1.618 convergence as the reversal before this has just happens( 10-12 pips before the convergence point) and looks like it will reverse again at the real convergence point at 1.618 see how it goes? I have entered at 1.29070 and another entry at 1.29052. Going green 5+ pips for both entry.Made 22 pips and ran away. Though I have lost nearly 16k AUD in last three months but I am sure I will be able to control my greed and fear which is the most important to be successful in trading. Thanks to TMB, Sweet pip and others who had a great contribution for the whole new traders. Thanks again and wishing everyone a great great Christmas ahead.
babuajee, I took that trade but on the 4 hour and it failed miserably haha. I think it was just a bad time for the D to form, just ticked into Saturday as it hit the D point.
GlassM00n, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to use them if you’re short for ideas. I do suggest however, doing your own analysis on the patterns it finds as a double check. Also helps to have a good idea on the symmetry of the currency pair you’re trading.
I’ve been looking at the CHF/JPY today and saw a potential major weekly pattern:
C retraced to 38.2% of AB meaning CD will be a likely 127%+ of AB. 50% XA converged with 127% CD. TMB didn’t mention the major retracement zone for the CHF/JPY but since it is highly correlated with the EUR/JPY I’ll assume it has major resistance at 50% too.
Zooming right in I’m looking at this 30min chart on the same pair:
Tell me… Who makes money like this off a wick in a Obviously Bearish market with a Buy. You are all free to e-mail me for advice at any time.Update: Well it didn’t quite reach 129.10…10 pips short as far as this chart is concerned, but down it went anyways. Don’t suppose you would have traded it as you stated it had to be at most 5 pips away.
I’ve added a 2nd more recent chart which shows the pink trendline of the gartley’s D leg and price is hovering around it.
I take it this is a good time to check for candlestick patterns. Seeing a couple of spinning tops/doji’s… maybe an evening star developing? If it breaks it down, then basically it’s a valid butterfly, if not then it’s a failed butterfly (although coulda been a little profitable), and the gartley’s still a possibility.
Am I reading this all right?..lol…I hate seeing things after they are all complete cause that’s not what goes on while one is trading.
Found a bearish gartley on the EUR/USD daily - convergence at 61.8% XA and 200% CD (Going back to one of TMB’s earlier statements, EUR/USD typically has major resistance and retraces at the 61.8% mark)
I see something here, but I’m not exactly sure how to trade it. Any tips would be great.
This is the AUD/USD daily chart, the yellow lines are a mostly symmetrical triangle from the high in Feb and the low in May. then the purple lines are an upward channel from the low of Sept 5 and the high of Oct 5. The orange lines are weekly high low for another strategy.
I know that these two patterns usually indicate some sort of breakout - is there something else I should use to help me know which direction it will likely break to?
Many patterns on this pair. I am hoping that the AUS/USD pair is still on an upward trend so it can fulfill the certain pattern requirements and then follow a downward spiral action. However, people on this website speculate that the AUS/USD is already on the downtrend. This is bad news for my previous pattern but good news for a new pattern formation- specifically batman.
By taking a step back and looking at the pair, you can easily spot a pennant formation. It seemed to test the support more frequently than the resistance lines. From my previous patterns (along with the original support lines), it shows breaking of the support 3 times --> speculations of a downtrend as people stated?
My plan is to enter once the pair broke through the penant (support), leading to a downtrend to a specific fib level. Buy at fib level a couple pips before to follow the upward trend. We will see as time goes.
No worries babuajee. Your USD/JPY gartley looks good but the D forms near the end of the trading week again. I just checked and it looks like it shot through to the next fib level before retracing. Nowadays I don’t like trading on Friday just because it seems so volatile and prone to fakeouts.
I have something similar elephant. I drew some potential D points on the 4 hour AUD/USD:
I see a Non-perfect Mr. Gartley forming. A daily and weekly charts shows a strong upward trend as it briefly touches the SMA. Overall, I think it will test the resistance level established mid September after the pattern has completed. In shorter time frames or larger time frames, the market is reacting within the pennant/triangle. However, with this Non-perfect Mr. Gartley pattern, approaching point D will test the pennants support line. I believe that since we are still in an upward trend it will only touch or casually test the area and shoot back up to continue the trend. If you look at the hourly time frame with your RSI, you can definitely see a hidden divergence happening (higher lows and lower highs) confirming a upward trend.
All potential reversal values within the zone seem to aggregate within the same area which helps make me believe that when price levels hit this area, reversal will continue-confirming the bullish trend.
But as of now, the market just opened being very bullish which scares me that it might make this pattern invalid…again.
Market opened really strong today… therefore, invalidating my pattern. However, another forms! Crabby forms!
The pair broke through the pennant and continues the upward trend. I will look between 1.304 and 1.307 for potential reversal moves~ we will see if this sucker will follow any of the pattern rules. Should’ve confirmed the upward trend when looking at lower time frames with the SMA.
I have a feeling it might be over bought as it tempts to reach another high this month. Most rsi and Stoch show overbought. So, I will watch and see what will happen tomorrow.
HI Everyone. I am expecting EUR/USD to reach minimum 1.313X area prior to drop. However I am going to patiently wait till price retrace to 1.3000 - 1.3025 area to long. However any fundamental or adverse news on EUR may down EUR quickly.
