Nice one guys! Actually it looks like there is both a bat pattern (B=50%) and cypher pattern (C=127%) forming. Accordning to my rules it is not a gartley forming since B does not retrace to the 61,8%, but hey thats only according to the rules i use in my trading plan.
But i think the cypher pattern is the one that is more likely to kick in since it is supportet by previous structure like you point out in your post and i pointed out in my earlier post about this cypher pattern.
Looking to be a real interesting high probability trade. You could possibly even trade a double bottom if price retraces twice into this support zone. Many opportunities for possible trade setups!
I have had another look at it, and the gartley convergance with a double bottom gartley seems reasonable. I have not actually traded a cypher before but the cypher here is close to textbook in its formationsā¦ and has the supporting resistance zones that i think i might take a chance and put my limit order back in for the cypherā¦
I gotta be honest Shonick, Iād try to get out of that trade with a small profit if you can. I see 3 big issues with that pattern.
#1, your X point is not an impulse or significant retracement. If I were to try and pick an X it would be about 16 bars to the left of where you put yours. Even then I wouldnāt like the pattern, just isnāt clean.
#2, itās a butterfly that hasnāt yet reached a 1.27 retracement of XAā¦
#3, lack of previous support or resistance levels at your D
Now, the 1 thing you may have going for you is the RSI but that is not enough by itself. So just my opinion, and weāll have to wait and see how it plays out, but if I were personally in this trade I would probably start looking for as painless as an exit as I could find.
Let me know how it turns out though, the market can turn on a dime as we all know.
Good luck, I hope you can get some pips out of it.
i have today added the fib number 70.7 to my fib levels, and the gartley [which is also a cypher] has a perfect 100% convergence with the 70.7 of XA, therefore i may instead decide to place my limit order at the 70.7 and use the 78% of XA as my stop as it has good resistance
My previous bullish view on AU is looking pretty shakey right now. Possible bullish m30 bat 1.0428-32 but itās only made 2 pushes on the lower timeframe and itās not a great time of day.
Strategy would be to buy 1.0431, stop 1.0426, limit 1.0516. Longshot.
Interesting things going on in the GBPNZD chart, 4 hour.
A ādirtyā gartley pattern that hopefully will work out fine in the end even though price is hovering around the 0.886 level. I call it dirty since it involves a double top inside the pattern. Not sure about what the rules say regarding a retrace in this dimension withing the impulse leg but i will give it a try anyway.
If price pushes up, this would result in a cypher pattern created back to back. Iām long and looking for to stop and reverse at the 0.786 level of the cypher A -> C leg. If price continues to push down we will have a failed gartley and a invalidation of the cypher.
I used to trade trendlines a bit on this pair a few months ago. I always seemed to loose money though so i stopped. But one thing I distinctively remember about this pair though is that the spread is HUGE!
are you sure you want to trade this pair diablo. hows your R:R ratio on this pair??
can I know when you all normally trade for the pairs of EUR/JPY ? Because the trades are too much, I canāt go 1 by 1ā¦ and so far which pairs is the most profitable?
Yeah, this pair has a huge spread with most brokers. My risk/reward ratio is 1:2,5 since i buy the C to D and have my TP at the D of the cypher pattern and my stop below the X of the āgartleyā.
This is more of a test for me. From the 1st of april i have a new broker, account and trading platform and my journey will start for real. This test above is against my trading plan which i will start following 1st of april so i allowed myself to do this one last time. Iām on a micro account still so. From april though no break of my rules is allowed. If i break a rule in my trading plan i will get a 1 week no trade penalty and if i break that rule also i will stop trading forex for good. Tough rules but if iām not able to follow them i do not have the discipline thats necessary for this kind of trading. So i simply wonāt break the rules i guess.
I was just a bit to eager to share this info about the GBPNZD with you today so donāt take the āgartleyā pattern i drew up serious. Itās not a valid pattern. If price continues north we can have a possible valid cypher pattern though.
To answer your question i do not have any limitations regarding to trading times. I watch for good setups and enter the trade if everything in my trading plan tells me that it is a valid trade. I have restrictions for major news events tough.
If you want some good times refer to the times TMB has written in the beginning of this thread.
I do not think there is a special profitable pair. It totally depends on what strategy you trade (swing trading, day trading, trend continuation trading, structure based trading, advanced patterns trading, etc.)
Even then it will be hard to pinpoint an exact pair i think. There are pairs that move more symmetrical than others but from time to time they do not so itās based on news, season, time of day, etc. When youāve traded for a longer period of time and you keep a journal of all you trades you will see some kind of pattern emerge and then you can tell which pair fits your trading style. And even that will wary from month to month, year to year i think.
Allright, i promised to show you one of my trading journals for march.
Iāve traded 2 different strategies and one of them involves advanced pattern trading and is the one i will start trading from the 1st of april.
I had a total of 24 trades in march with 2 positions each so i traded 48 positions. This involves Bat, Gartley and Cypher patterns on the time frames 15 min, 30 min, 60 min, 4 hour and daily. I also had many trades on 5 minute charts the week i was sick and and home but i did not include the in my journal since that was an exeption and i will not be trading 5 minute patterns for the next 3 months.
These are the results and iām very pleased with them. They exceeded my expectations by far. But itās still to early to draw any conclusions. I had 71% winning trades and 29% loosing trades with a total profit of 727 pips.
I had mixed results on every time frame except the on the 60 minute time frame where i had 100% winners. But i think that is just a coincidence.
From april i will start a new journal and i will not sort the trades by time frames. Instead i will sort and monitor them by type of pattern to see which one is the most profitable.
so normally what is your T/P ? 30 pips? Or depends. and for the 2 positions, is it mean that both trades hving the same entry price but different T/P? Or 1st trade having lesser T/P and follow by 2nd trade after the 1st T/P get hit?
Iām trading advanced pattern setups like TMB but i do not have a 30 pip rule for the day so i am trading a bit different than him. I am placing my stop loss above X of the pattern i am trading and my TP1 is at the 0.382 fib, and TP2 at the 0.618 fib of the whole pattern size.
I do not recommend to follow what i posted about my C to D trade. I wanted to delete that post but for some reason my delete button is gone.
I have no fixed profit meassured in pips. I have my TP1 at the 0.382 fib level and TP to at the 0.618 fib level of the fib drawn from (for example) A to D on a gartley.
Thats why i always enter with two positions. One with TP1 (0.382) and TP2 (0.618).
So the different between your style and TMB is the drawing of fibs from A to D ?
Because TMB will draw fib from B to A then move the fib to C and look for convergence between that fib and the fib drawn for X to A right?
I use TMBās method only for confirmation of a pattern. The patterns i trade according to my trading plan have fixed levels at which the D point forms.
D of a Cypher pattern = 0.786 level of X-A fib
D of a Gartley pattern = 0.786 level of X-A fib
D of a Bat pattern = 0.886 level of X-C fib
Price reacted strongly to the 0.786 level which is a good sign. But we have two cypher patterns on the 1 hour chart and one of them has just triggered which is a reason price is going up at the moment.
I am anticipating price to continue south due to the overall bearish cypher pattern on the daily chart until price hits the second cypher on the 1 hour chart at aprox 1.3900 which also is an institunional or psychological level (round number), whatever you want to call it. My guess would be that we should see a bullish reaction to that level aswell and thereafter continue our journey south. At least that is what i hope since iām short on the pair.
On the daily chart we have a bigger support level waiting at the 1.3500 level which also happens to be the 0.382 level (X to C) on the daily cypher pattern.
