I do admit, even with the old fibs i do have my “favorite” fibs …lol
i thought everyone had fibs that they prefer over others … but i guess you’re an equal oppertunity fib kinda guy
i know scott m carney heavily favours the 78.6% fib …and if im honest that’s probably my favourte too. there’s a gartley right now on the EUR/AUD at around 1.44048, infact it might be two gartleys if you use differant X points.
but the D is on the 38.2% fib on one. and the 100% fib on the other. and these are not my favorite fibs. IIRC you wern’t too fond of D’s landing on the 100% either. Aha! , you do prefer some over others
My fave fib is that which the market respects and since were trading Forex… it differs from pair to pair. The best thing to do is to simply take the fib ruler and measure as many XA points from the present to the past as possible. This will in turn give you the “Favored fib” of that market and allow you to be selective with your D points. In example, we find the .886-707 fib range to be the favored amongst the EUR/GBP (we’ve stated this earlier in the thread).
Thank you very much defiance888, this was just the feedback that i was looking for. Ofcourse after weekend I was too exited to find patterns to look for before monday arrives and market opens. Now we know that those “nearly reversed C-points” failed. I was using 1h chart near C to detect red candels. Ok ok… long story short, next time i will sit on my hands and wait proper D-leg to start forming.
Second one: I’m using traditional fibs from the book “trade what you see” and also Scott Carneys fibs from both of his books (HT vol 1 and HT vol 2). I have paper copy of all three books. I’m also trading only patterns according to Carneys suggestions (fib limits). So, I’m little confused now, EUR/USD H4 Bullish Crab. When i draw fib levels from X to A and B to C I will have confluence between 3,14 and 1,618 levels. Those are fiblevels that are stated to be IDEAL for Grab according to Carney. What did I do wrong?
3rd one. Thank you for your feedback. I need to be more patient like stated above.
Hi, I’m new in Gartley and Butterfly patterns.
I saw a pattern in USD/CAD, D1.
127.2% of XA converges with 450% CD at about 1.14489.
Is my plot acceptable?
im not that overly familar with scott m carney’s work, …i’ve had a brief look at one of his books before but didn’t delve too deeply into it.
regarding the crab. this is apparently a textbook crab [although im not sure if it meets the scott m carney requirements]
i think the way we trade patterns in this topic is different to how scott m carney trades. i have never seen TMB use the 3.14 fib extension and on the diagram i just posted it shows a “2.24 or 3.618” extension being the ideal D point. i’ve never seen TMB use these fib points either
refer to these video here to see how we go about finding and trading patterns here. also it shows what fibs we are using.
fat lady hasn’t sung yet on AUD/JPY …but it looks like she’s going to
i shorted GBP/JPY [a bit late] around it’s D point and got cut up by the whipsaws. i really need a winning trade and soon…
i have a short waiting at the 261.8% extension, but im apprehensive because JPY is very weak and GBP is at a good strenght. i’ve noticed on the odd occasion price still will work at the D point when the currency strength is against you …im just hoping it is one of these times.
[B]
edit:[/B] oh, and i do have a question. also on CAD/JPY i notice that price has hit the 113.6 XA, and the 261.8% convergance and gone back down somewhat. [canada is very weak atm, only just above jpy] …however on the hourly it closed several times above the 113.6 XA before going down. back with the original method of trading you had at the start of the thread you would operate by visual stop loss and close out a trade which closed above the fib line. i had been doing this as well with the old style gartleys and found it very beneficial as it cut down on losses significantly. but i notice with the new fibs you appear not to be using this method anymore and are using physical stops. i am now confused to the method we must use to close out loosing trades on these new fibs
can you please clarify in detail your current stop loss procedure.
Interesting thread. I have read all 3 books (Trade what you see, harmonic trader 1 and 2) and had been testing out on harmonic pattern trading. IMO, pattern trading doesn’t really works when the market is in high volatility(E.g. current situation in USD/JPY) as most of the harmonic trades were counter trend trades. It somehow seems to have a higher success rate when there are not much high-volatility news involved. Just my 2 cents worth.
On the contrary Sx, I find harmonics to work best within volatile markets, the difference is that it must be within those markets that are symmetrical.
BTW, took a 58 pip loss on the AUD/JPY last night (meaning I should adjust my stops and lots for weekly patterns such as the one that has developed). In addition, re-entered the short at 98.851 for the AJ after the AUD/USD confirmed Ausi weakness (I see it dropping an additional 135 pips before reversing). Our stop is 20 pips above this zone.
Target 97.00 (scalp will be at the 50-60 pip range depending on price action around the support zones).
Intraday like you sir
