Are you taking sunday gaps in consideration?
Will the measurement of the angles change when you zoom in or out?
i usuallly get 100 pip in week or a fews day. i do not trade with daily pip. i do not have more freetimes. i think i can make money better with longterm strategy.
noticed this gartley i missed yesterday on eur/aud …grrrr…
thing is though, that there is another D point coming up [where the 2.618% CD extension is], but because of the new BC leg that has formed i am wondering if i should not take it as higher D’s are projected [even though convergance is very bad for them],
on a side note, there is a much more appetising setup on eur/jpy right now … so i think i’ll just watch this one and put in an order for that one.
[I][B]“Are you taking sunday gaps in consideration?” [/B][/I]
i try to look at price over the weekend [on a website that allows it], and then i tend to make sure when i draw my gartleys i am taking this into consideration and not drawing any invalid gartleys
[I][B]“Will the measurement of the angles change when you zoom in or out?”[/B][/I]
measurement of angles should not change.
however, since that post has been made i have dropped most of the new fibs from my fib tool. indeed they do offer more trading oppertunities since you get more convergance [as you are using more fibs], but you also get more fakeouts and more prices blowing through d points. at a bare minimum [and this is my opinion], when trading these new fibs you should have a msrt line passing through the convergance, and also gone through the pairs history to decide if it respects that fib as a D point, and also gone through the pairs history and note how far price typically bounces from that D point. i have found there is no point going for a full D retracement [expecting price to bounce to 61.8% AD] if historically when a D lands on that fib point it seldom [if ever bounces that far], if you do that you are setting yourself up for failure. likewise, if the pair does not respect that fib as a D point and historically when price hits the D it can’t even made 30 pips don’t expect to get 30 pips there in future.
in essence, it is a tedious task to go through a pair like that and note D points and how price respects or disrespects them, but a neccesary task …as there is so much false convergance [due to multiple fibs]. also i highly reccomend having a msrt point running through your D point too when attempting to trade these fibs. i have found normal trendlines not reliable enough and price still going through them a good amount of times, but a msrt line usually is a good bet.
example, the D i took on the GBP/CAD last time which netted me 100+ pips or something had a daily msrt running through the 61.8% XA, and 61.8% XA is the pairs favourite fib for D points, and does produce full retracements a Decent amount of the time. when price closed below the daily [after hitting it and the D point] i opened a sell order …and price ended up plunging down by alot. the CD extension i used to find convergance with the 61.8% XA was one of the new fibs tmb added in.
on the eur/gbp, the D was landing on the 292.7% fib. a fib i had just added. i had not gone through price history on that pair to see how price normally reacts to it, in hindsight i really should have. i do not think price ended up going that far down on that on. so whilst the 292.7 is technically a fib number, i would not reccomend anyone use it as a D point unless you have gone through the pairs history and firstly make sure that price respects it and secondly note how far price typically bounces from it.
despite the insights into the new fibs i have made [or think i have made] i have decided to remove them for now and work with the old fibs. it is hard to judge weather or not a pair is symmetrical with the new fibs because you can always find convergance, and also due to so much convergance you can miss the convergance of the old fibs due to too much noise, and [imo] the new fibs need to be traded with a msrt line passing through the D point too, and there is not always one available, so for simplicities sake i have decided to go back to the old fibs for now. in future i may add the new fibs back to my fib tool. it would be nice though if TMB could post some trades…
here is my USD/JPY and EUR/JPY Analysis,
anyone who knows what they’re doing [or thinks they know that they’re doing] feel free to comment and critique
lets look at the 30 minute chart of USD/JPY:
the brown line is a 1.618 extension from XA points plotted on the hourly/4hour [note there is no 1 hour or 4 hour gartley coming from that XA, . on the hourly price respected the 1.618 extenstion and was not able to close above it.
notice in this image that we have 3 D points which are close in proximity to each other, this leads me to believe that price wants to revist the area again for a retest and it is likely that one may be able to gain 30 pips from it. the yellow circle is a D point that hit below the price reversal zone and worked. the red rectangle is the price reversal zone [of D points], there are 3 D points in this price reversal zone, the red X and red D is a 5 minute gartley where i have not drawn in the abc because it is too hard to see on this timeframe
note on EUR/JPY as well, that price is very ALMOST to it’s D point, where two seperate CD swings land on the 88.6% XA,
note that the purple trendlines are msrt lines coming from the 8 hour chart.
i will be placing an order here too soon after the markets open.
i previously made around 80 pips scalping from the last D point to the current one.
an hourly close above the current D point should send price upto atleast 138.000, that is around 140 pips. tbh price could well go more if you consider…
a head and shoulders has broken to the upside, and it’s apex projection is FAR FAR more than 138.000, i only picked 138.000 because that is that last valid XA leg, and after price passes that we are no longer in a gartley because the 2.618 extreme has been surpassed [well i suppose you would be if using the new fibs tmb made we would still be in a gartley/butterfly, but under the old ones we are no longer in a gartley at that point]
also usd/jpy closed above a weekly msrt. the msrt was not near a D point so i am not sure how relavent that is, but candlestick patterns on the daily and weekly chart imply price will continue up, tbh, i will probably put my take profit at around 38.2% AD on the usd/jpy gartley which is closer to 20 pips than 30
if you are lucky enough to have read this before market open you can probabaly make 30 + 30 pips trading the eur/jpy and the usd/jpy D points. i suggest you only take the trade though if wing symmetry remains good. if price dilly dally’s in the area for too long and symmetry becomes “wack” i will probably pull my orders anticipating it will blow through the D points.
if eur/jpy closes above it’s D point, you may be able to make 140+ pips if you take the D to D scalp.
this is my analysis.
i feel i am getting better at this lately.
thankyou for reading…
the price reversal zone on the usd/jpy worked liked a treat. made 20 pips selling to the 32.8% AD.
the EUR/JPY gartley did not hit it’s D point but instead plunged downwards without reaching it. also sneakily creating another gartley in the other direction. i noticed on EUR/USD price did the same thing and one of the gartleys that had been created as a result has hit, and appears to be working. given my projection that EUR/JPY is heading up i have decided to place an order for a small amount of lots at the extreme of price of the gartley with the intention to hold onto it for a 200 pip move upwards. that is quite ambitious, [but does have a chance of working], i have placed a small amount of lots incase it does not work as not to hurt my account, but if it does work the small amounts of lots will yield a resonable prize if price manages to travel the 200 pips.
didn’t i tell you guys price will make it there?
it’s almost there now…
go look.
i’ll tell ya another thing for free too, aud/usd will make it to 77.650 minimum.
im 70% sure on that.
currenly i have a buy on it, i bought late after i saw a gartley hit on the 30/15 chart.
profit will be around 4:1 RR if i am right and price reaches there.
price made it where i said it would and has currently started to retrace.
unfortunately though i had a pending sell order set on the eur/usd D point with multiple convergance and that price spike knocked out my stop loss, then came back down to achieve the 30 pips, but it was too late. i can see why TMB opperates without a stop loss now and waites for a visual close. i do not want to trade without some kind of physical stop loss, …hopefully this sort of thing wont happen too often, if it does i may need to make adjustments to my trading style. becuase i was using higher lot size on that pending sell order than the scalp, i am now at a loss for the day, even though the scalp netted 70 pips.
oh well, i’m on the track with my trading, perdictions are getting better, i will have to soak that loss up to experiance and be more careful about pending orders i leave hanging
here is the short term projection of aud/usd. it is bearish due to the gartley with a D point landing here at the extremes of price, and also an 8 hour msrt line running through the area [purple dotted trendline]. i have highlighted the price reversal zone in red. if price makes it here with resonable symmetry expect a reaction, i would say for atleast 25 pips to the downside.
however the longer term projection for aud/usd is bullish as it has just hit a D point yesterday on the 4 hour/daily and has not even reached the 38.2% AD yet of that move.
you can see now how i was able to scalp those 70 pips and knew the minimum area price would go to. [actually i took 68 pips as you can see on the image …but what’s 2 pips]
currently i have a pending sell order waiting in the price reversal zone, but my stop is only 20 pips, i think it is too tight, and possibly might move it to 25 pips…,
a close above the 2.618 XA fib on the 8 hour timeframe is the exit for this bearish trade if price fails to react to the D point.
the gartley hit yesterday, went 18 pips in profit before AUD news came out at night which caused price to smash through my stop loss [25 pips], then price closed over the 8 hour trendline.
in addition i made the same mistake of leaving a pending order on eur/usd for a gartley. i told myself i was gonna remove them in certain fakeout hours [but forgot and had a nap leaving the pending order] and like sods law in the fakout hour price trampled through the D point. currently i made a late buy on aud/usd as im sure price will reach 77.803 atleast.
i did see the setup to scalp towards that position on aud/usd but messed up the price reversal zone [closing the trade too early when price had not reached the final gartley within the price revesal zone], i entered and exited several times, i shall try and provide a pic to illustrate the price reversal zone …and where i went wrong,
[i will edit this post later to provide the pic]
it is a good job most of these mistakes were made on demo [ i run a demo account as well as my real account], only made just the one **** up on my real account today
edit: here is the pic
bigger pic: http://i.imgur.com/tG3C3zt.png
the blue gartley is the main gartley, the green gartley is the secondary one, with two differant wings projecting two D points. we can see that the blue gartley with 2.36 XA converges with the 1.272 CD extenstion [black fibs], in addition we have a smaller gartley [green] where the 78.6 [purple fibs] and the 1.272 CD extension converge, and market scope is not showing the number 88.6 on the purple fibs in this image, but if you look carefully you can still see the line for it, this also converges with the 1.272 CD fib extension, also below this, the 1.000 XA of the green gartley [purprle fibs] converges with the 1.618 CD extenstion [black fibs], …so we have multiple convergance in this area and i have highlighted the price reversal zone in the red box
tbh, even below this we have convergance of the purple fibs [1.272 XA] of the green gartley converges with a CD level, but i felt the price reversal zone was spanning too far away from the main gartleys [blue] 2.36 fib which is at the heart of the price revesal zone. my exit for the trade should have been a 30 minute close of the 1.000XA [green gartley] and the 1.618 CD as this was the last D point in the price reversal zone. but i kept entering and exiting the trade early closing out my trade when price closed above the other D points, when really it should have been the last one.
by the time i woke up after my nap, price had shot up, and if you look carefully you can see my late entry, and also my stop below the price reversal zone. given my bullish projection for the USD and the fact that a D point hit a few days ago and price has currently only reached the 38.2% AD, … and given that the eur/usd is about to close over a D point, i am pretty sure price will reach atleast 77.803 on aud/usd hence why it is my limit.
next time hopefully i will not make such a pigs ear of the price reversal zone, and pick my exit better [meaining i would not have exited].
edit: actually im gonna go out on a limb here and say aud/usd will make it to 79.450, and that is about 150 pips from where price currently is. when aud/usd is going to the AD levels of a D point it typically will hit the 38.2% and reverse, or it will get to the 61.8% and beyond. i think it will get past the 38.2% AD and i’ve never seen it get stuck at the 50% AD …hence why i revisted my prediction, but the 77.803 [the 50%] would be safest option to limit to
I’m glad I came across this thread, it has pretty impressive things to look out for.
Mind if I ask, what is the tool you use for the ABCD? I recently started using Fibonacci and I notice you’re using it along with the ABCD.
Thank you
im not sure if i understand the question. tool for the ABCD?
I plot them manually the way TMB teaches us to plot, i do not use a tool or an indicator to do so. if you’re talking about showing the letters abcd then in marketscope towards the top right of the screen you will see a box that says “abc” and simply click on it, and label your gartley points,
I do know they are such tools that plot your gartley and xabcd …but imo these tools are unreliable and often repaint the D in real time … which is really not on, imagine commiting to a D point and placing your hard earned cash there [expecting a reversal] only to have the indicator change it’s mind as soon as the D point is hit and paint it somewhere else. TMB does not reccomend such tools, and i know of no one who got rich from using such indicators. those indicators are for the lazy man, the man who can’t be bothered to put in the effort to learn how to trade patterns. Any Tom, **** and Harry can throw on an indicator and use it for D points. If it really was as simple as letting an indicator do it all those people would be filthy rich … but they’re not. and there’s one thing i have learn’t in forex, is that the successful people almost always are using a system that is difficult to impliment correctly, what i mean by that is that the average trader who tries to learn the system will not be able to do it right. the systems that anyone can do [eg: simple crossover systems, pure stoch/RSI based systems, basic price action systems] tend to be the systems where no one is making money in the long term. remember in forex, 95% of traders over the long term are loosers. therefore logic should tell you that is you are using a basic uncomplicated system that you think the majority of traders can impliment correctly, chances are the system is garbage.
gartleys, [the way TMB trades them] is very complex. when i first found this thread i thought it was easy as abcd …but soon found there is alot more to it than that. a complicated system that is hard to impliment correctly, coupled with account statements from the thread starter should be a tell tell sign to you that possibly it is a thread than can produce actual results, unlike most threads in forex which are garbage …and is simply the blind leading the blind.
graudually i am getting better. for the last 8 months, i have been break even. meaning one month i might be a little in profit, the next month i’ve lost that profit i made, the next month im at a 10% loss, the next month i haven’t made any profit …but at the same time haven’t incurred any losses, the next month i’ve made back the 10% loss and am a bit in profit …etc etc , but ultimately im bouncing in and around of break even. i think break even over 8 months is above average considering most people are loosers. still though, i know break even is not good enough and continue to work hard and improve my trading so i can hopefully finally get to the point where i can continously make and keep money. i have tried other systems, and tbh the majority of them were far easier than this one …but at the same time i was always loosing money and i suspect the owners of the system themselves were not making money in the long term.
What do you think about the latest moves? Technical side of it !
I’m a fan of these patterns but don’t usually use them in my trading. Do you keep a log of trades to see if you can find something in the losing trades that are in common, or something in the winning trades to see if you’ve maximized profits. When I go through Harmonic phases, I tend to trade: Gartley’s, Bats, and Cyphers. I find that trades in direction of the overall trend to be much more effective, and I find certain time frames are better than others. Any thoughts you have on maximizing profits from these would be very interesting. I know of a couple of people who have free videos [B](ADMININSTRATORS: CAN I SUGGEST SOMEONES INTERNET LOCATION OF FREE VIDEOS AND THE PERSONS NAME - PLEASE ADVISE)
[/B]
well i correctly predicted eur/jpy would go up so am not surprised at the movement. the apex of the head and shoulders lands at around 145.000 …so we could yet go higher, although personally i would hold off on trying to scalp to that area as we have surpassed the extreme’s of the gartley/butterfly and are no longer in a pattern.
as for usd/jpy i am not really surprised at it’s movement too … since the usd/jpy and eur/usd and eur/usd are closely connected.
did you know that if you take the current price of eur/usd x usd/jpy you will be left with the price of eur/jpy
eur/usd is currently just below a D point where the 2.618 CD extreme converges with the 88.6% XA.
i will be taking care over this and removing my pending order if it has not hit by around 9:00 AM est, because that is a time when the pair likes to blow through valid D points to reach higher ones. even though i cannot see another higher one i will be removing my order in that risky hour and only put it back when that time period has passed. TMB, really knows his stuff and says that this is the time of day price likes to blow through D points to reach higher ones, and the last few days on the eur/usd have proved it true.
yes i keep extensive notes, this is just a sample
i am also constantly going over the thread too.
this thread is pretty detailed and extensive. logic would suggest that if traders and not expericing profits which could be compared with TMB’s [once you account for differances in lot sizes as he risks typically 5% - 10% of his account when trading gartleys] then there is something(s) that trader is doing wrong, or something(s) the trader is not doing right.
by constantly going over the thread, and keeping extensive notes on my trades [both written and visual], slowly i am unearthing mistakes or things i have been doing not right. this is a 1000 page thread. it is tedious to keep failing and having to go back and re-read and re-read and re-read, but i can actually say that taking such an approach has improved my competance significantly.
2 weeks ago i discovered a core mistake that i was making, and from looking at the gartleys posted in this thread by people, the majority of people are making them too. i do not think it is TMB’s fault people are making this mistake …but i think there must be something embedded within human nature why so must people continue to make it, even though he has explained it multiple times. even most of the people who went and trained privately with tmb in that group, i notice were still making the mistake afterwards. the mistake incase you are wondering, is that people are not always drawing their x from the most extreme valid x. it sounds like a simple rule to adhere to, but for some reason there seems to be a human nature to just pick an x point that is far back not neccesarily checking it is the most extreme x. what tends to happen when you use the wrong x is that your gartley is jepordised as other valid bigger gartleys can influence the smaller one. sometimes the trade still works when you use the wrong one though, that’s another reason why the mistake is so hard to both grasp and spot. but if you are not always using the right x you will never be profitable long term [i think] because enough failed trades from the wrong gartleys will knock down your win rate.
as a result of spotting this making and making sure i don’t make it, my top down analysis skills seems to have improved alot resulting in more accurate scalp predictions.
my recent aud/usd prediction seems to have not come true though [ i thought price would not come below my stop loss and that price would meet the prediction i said it would], i have both visual and written notes of that trade so i have been going over them in the mannor i usually do to discover why it failed. i think i know what i did wrong, but i guess only time will tell when a similar situation is presented again. i am no longer sure if aud/usd will reach my predicted price now. to where eur/usd currenly is i predicted a 150 scalp to there [but didn’t post it], nor did i take the trade as the failure point [stop loss from a technical standpoint] for this trade was too wide imo. the way i predicted this move was slightly differant to how i predicted the aud/usd move …so i will stick to the method that is working.
gartley predictions are getting better too except i am expericing losses in those hours which tmb says the market likes to make higher or lower d’s, hence why i will no longer be trading in that small window.
only by constantly going over the thread, making both written and visual notes have i been able to unearth mistakes like this, mistakes that keep you from being profitable.
if a trade fails on me, the first question i ask myself is “why?” , why did it fail. did i do something wrong? or is it just one of those times where the trade fails even though you did everything right. if enough trades are failing that it prevents you from being profitable then logic suggests you are doing something wrong or there is something you are not doing right, to which point, it is back to the tedious task of re-reading the thread trying to spot something that i have overlooked which could be the reason for the failed trades. taking such a route is timeconsuming, but feels good when you finally unearth a mistake.
as for maximising profits. doing a top down analysis of the pair you are trading will help you enourmously. also a top down example of similar pairs. eg: if looking at eur/usd , not only would you do a top down analysis on that pair but other usd pairs too. example of how it can help you. if your top down analysis tells you eur/usd is bullish in the long term, you would know that taking bearish trades on the lower timeframe are unlikely to produce big retracements, and you should either not trade them or trade them conservately [going for 30 pips], likewise if you saw a bullish gartley on the lower timeframe you could be more confident with trading these, and likewise depending on market conditions it might be worth going for more than 30 pips. a top down analysis also allows one to be more accurate with scalping. however having said all this, doing a competant top down analysis is not “easy”, i am not even sure if i am fully competant in doing it yet, but my preditions are getting better so i guess it’s a start.
just noticed this guys on the aud/usd
the second time price hit the D on the big gartley was at a time known for true D’s. we can see price already retraced a bit from the D point now, and is coming back down, so maybe the true D is over.
also we can see a second smaller gartley and it’s 2.618 extreme is landing in the area of the main gartley’s D.
i previously said in previous posts that aud/usd had reached the 38.2 AD retracement, and in my last post said i was not sure it could reach the 61.8% AD, however if it was gonna reach the 61.8%AD then this setup would be the ideal setup to propel it there. as a result i have opened a smaller scapling order, with a stop loss below the D point on this image. i am looking to ride this order to my previous aud/usd prediction.
if price can reach the D point on the image at betwen 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm uk time i will place another order there as this is a good time for true D’s.
at the moment is fakeout hour where the market likes to make higher or lower d’s so i don’t place an order right at the moment. i have a small scalping order open right now, hopefully it will be ok, but if price closes below that d point i shall close there order
aud/usd has smashed through the D point in fakeout hour.
i must say, this recent bahavior from the pair is indicating it’s 38.2 AD retracement is the level it wants to retrace to, and that it is possibly done retracing. honestly it’s shame i did not notice that bigger D hitting [purple gartley] hitting this morning or i would have took that. currently i have reversed possition to scalp towards the lower d point in a sell.
just occured there is still a chance of another true D
we have just reached true D time and i have place a pending buy order.
come on D, come through…
It really take dedication and patience to make anything out of forex.