30 Pips A day Keeps the your money at bay

Trading Discussion
10649

so the D point hit during the right time, but the way price was reacting, i started to think to myself … i think something is wrong? what have i done wrong? after a couple of minutes i noticed that i had failed to notice that another BC leg had formed with the initial D point that i missed in the morning, and that the CD levels now were pointing to 88.6%, here is the correct pattern. as soon as i noticed this mistake i closed my trade, but my punishment for not noticeing this was a 12 pip loss.

sure enough the D point predicted in my last image did not work. but atleast i know why it didn’t work, and hopefully i will remember not to make that mistake again. you really need to have eye’s in the back of eye’s when trading these patterns sigh

anyways, here is the new D point.
the 88.6% XA has perfect convergance with the 127.2% CD level.

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10650

Laziness is the simple answer towards your question on why people continue to draw their X incorrectly. In addition to wanting to make the pattern “fit” convergence. As for achieving profit with the system once you can get past this and attain discipline… its all a matter of patience and dedication like [B]olafxsignal [/B]said. Just learn to fine tune the system in a way that it fits your personality… because in the end the only thing that stops one from achieving success is oneself.

10651

I can’t speak for other people, but on my part, i don’t think it was lazyness … i knew to draw x from the extreme but for some reason i thought as long as the x looked quite far back that it would suffice. even though you said to draw x from the extreme for some reason it did not click in brain that you really meant EXTREME. i only discovered i was doing it wrong accidently when i decided to plot all the eur/jpy gartleys you posted at the start of this thread [so i could get an idea of what a symmetrical market looks like] and whilst i was plotting your gartleys i noticed the way you drew gartleys was differant. you really were taking X to the extreme lol.

but hey, it’s done now. i realised my mistake, corrected it and can start to progress, and that’s all that matters really. I think my top down analysis skills have improved because of it, i probably have room for improvement though.

as for discipline, im probably 80% of the way there. i can overcome emotion not to close a trade out until the right close [hourly/30 min/15 min etc] even if the trade looks to be failing. greed is mostly under control too, i usually only take 30 pips now. once in a blue moon greed might get the better of me and i may go for more …but it doesn’t happen often. i’ve also sorted out my tendancy to enter patterns late, like sometimes i might spot a D point that’s already hit and retracing and attempt to “jump in” and catch the retracement, i’ve learn’t multiple times the hard way why this isn’t a good idea. If the patterns turns around and fails, you will incur bigger losses and get burnt MUCH harder than if you had entered at the fib level.

patience and dedication i think are good. i’ve been a reader of this thread for a long time, and it’s only through really going back and reading and re reading this thread many many times that i have identified and started to correct mistakes which are preventing me being profitable.

ps guys: AUD/JPY and also AUD/NZD are currently forming similar gartleys. no idea if price will hit D though.

10652

I just finished studying Gartleys in the school program, and I really want to learn it and start using it in my trading… I saw this thread as a link in the school program on babypips, but it’s really difficult to go over 1000+ pages and pick out the important stuff… :frowning:

10653

Start at the beginning! Youll see the main base lines! It all depends on how bad you want it :wink:

10654

just saw this thread today and i was wondering if this still holds or still has that winrate lol

i just read the first few post by the OP and im already taking down notes. What i have right now are

1 - ABCD
2 - gartley butterfly pattern
3 - est time frames

are there anything else that i need to add in my list of “to-learn”? :smiley:

10655

So I’ve been trying to figure this Gartley system out, and I drew this on my e/u chart

Is this how it would look like? Or should my X be further down on the left?

The fib I drew is an expansion where the D reaches close to the 1272 level and bounces

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10656

x is not at the furthermost x,
your d has not touched the 1.272 extension, i cannot tell from the way you draw your fibs if the d was expected there or the 127.2% XA, if it was expected at the 100% XA then technically you should have closed out the trade for a loss as price closed under the fib line.
you are also using meta trader which is ill suited to trading these kinds of setups,

however, if you are drawing a more classic butterfly or crab [like one by scott m carney] then your butterfly may well be valid, i cannot tell without the precise measurements,

you need to decide what pattern you are trading as both have differant rules.

edit: actually i think under scott m carney’s rules your butterfly is invalid also as price did not touch the 1.272

10657

Hello once again boys and girls,

Once again I have attempted a top down analysis of a pair. comments welcome

AUD/USD

Here we can see on the Daily that there is stiff resistance to the Dollar devaluation against the AUD, there are gartleys at almost every XA leg. The USD is one of those currency that really does not want to weaken without a fight.

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bigger pic: http://i.imgur.com/ASFCfg3.png

If we take a look at the hourly [chart below], we can see again that there is even more opposition to the USD weakening. that first purple gartley was both a TmoneyBags pattern and a scott m carney bat. by combining both techniques along with candlestick analysis I was able to determine that this was a good place for a long and earned almost 80 pips both on demo and my real account. i used my standard lot size. the D point for the purple gartley closed under the 88.6% XA fib on the hourly/half hour chart. occording to the Tmoneybags rules we must close out a trade when that happens. also there is a daily msrt running just below the purple gartley, it is not shown on this image however [i have it on other charts] but beleive me it is there. it was responsible for the 215 pip bounce due to a D point on the 1st june 2015 being hit. normally if a fib point is breached on the hourly/half hour TmoneyBags will short to the next XA fib point. but seeing this daily trendline below made me cancel my short. by the end of the day price had touched the trendline and was now slightly above it. the gartley was a half hour or hourly pattern [due to size] so i was a little confused if the fact price had bounced of the daily trendline and closed above it meant i should treat the pattern as a daily pattern.

Then i examined the structure of the gartley, and realised it actually met the requirements for a bat by scott m carney quite well. price is allowed to close under the fib point with the way he trades. so i examined the price action within the potential reversal zone and to me it indicated price wanted to go up. this coupled with the TmoneyBags daily trendline made me decide to buy [with a stop loss below the X], the next day after alot of consolidation price took off and i took almost 80 pips. i did attempt another scalp with a much smaller lot size a bit later but that didn’t work out.

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bigger pic: http://i.imgur.com/yDiaX37.png

currently on the hourly/half hour charts there is a D point shown where 2 gartleys [drawn] converge. if price can make it there and not voilate c or become too unsymetrical then we may get a reaction. in addition we have a dotted purple 8 hour trendline running just above it. it didn’t seem to work too well last time i used it, but i checked the trendline and imo it is valid so perhaps it will work this time. to safeguard against it failing i will be only going for 30 pips, and i will only take the trade if it hits at a suitable time [time of day seems to effect how likely a gartley is to work]. also not drawn on the diagram, 2 more gartleys converge with D points at that exact same area is we use X on the hourly 8sma that gartleys 88.6% lands right there.

from my anaysis attempt i believe over the long term the USD will weaken, but i also beleive it will fight against this viciously and the devaluation of the US dollar against the AUD won’t be quick or easy.

on a side note, a few other USD pairs shows gartleys [currently above price too] which adds weight to my prediction that the USD will weaken but wont do without a good fight.

thankyou for reading.

edit: typical …, just hours after i make my analysis price tanks down thereby completely negating the hourly analysis. the daily analysis i think i still valid [technically], but with that tank down in price is looking more unlikely. the thing with these top down analysis are that if price changes like this then your whole market outlook can change…

10658

For the first picture you provided, shouldn’t the D point (or the end of the 2nd triangle) be at 1.27 expansion?

10659

i put it at the first one because there was decent convergance with the first one, and that was the one that would get reached first. convergance with the second one [the 1.27] is slightly better, but the first one is likely to work as well, what i would do is look for a smaller pattern on the hourly [or half hour] chart to confirm the first pattern as time drew near …and if it looked good i would take it.

on a side note, even though the aud/usd moved in price alot, harmonically the d point i predicted on the [U]30 minute/hourly chart[/U] still worked, one of my gartleys predicting the move was rendered invalid, but another one was born [due to that downwards move earlier], the new d point for that gartley was in the same area …but convergance wasn’t as good, but if you look at your chart you will see it still would have worked. it is a real shame i fell asleep and missed it, i was up much of the night and failed to notice the symmetry gartley changes in time and was asleep due to exahaustion for the past several hours. i took a scott m carney bat [unposted] on gpb/usd at around 5am uk time. it failed. seems i picked the wrong pattern to trade today :frowning:

10660

Are you familiar with Cypher patterns?

Went short on GBP/NZD when it showed a cypher pattern and reached the 78.6 mark, waited for it to bounce off it then entered. Its the first time I go in with a mini lot (usually micro) so I’m really scared that its still hanging on that 78.6 area, I saw it go down at first so was content.

Does it look good? I’m optimistic that it’ll go down, had my stop at the dotted red line (2.159) but moved it to 2.16250 a bit above the resistance level (at the 100% yellow fib line) (which held 3 times and broke once on 30minute chart)

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10661

When i first on this thread i traded a few cypher patterns, but soon stopped to concentrate more on the patterns taught in this thread. i might start to look at cypher patterns again in the near future …i’m not sure.

oh and i was wrong about the aud/usd working. i had another look at it and whilst it did react to the D point [it seems] price had closed above the fib level a few times on the hourly/half hour charts and occording to TMB’s rules when this happens you must close out your trade. Cypher patterns have differant rules [i think]…, TMB does not teach cypher patterns here though.

i am not entirely sure who discovered the cypher pattern…,
i can’t remember if it was scott m carney, if it was you might be executing it wrong as you are suppose to evaluate price action in the potential reverse zone BEFORE placing your trade. stop loss is also just after the X

10662

entered into this EUR/JPY butterfly a bit late today. the 127.2% CD and 127.2% XA converge. i noticed it had hit around 1 or 2 hours before i entered, and so evaluated it, and figured that it had a good chance of going significantly further than 30 pips, hence why i took a slightly late entry. my limit is at the 61.8% AD. at the time of writing the butterfly has already travelled a bit more 30 pips from D, i entered when price was around 13 pips from D,

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AUD/USD has another bat or gartley at the 88.6% XA on the hourly/half hour chart. if you also use the 8mva on the hourly as your x you get another convergance at it’s 100%. from evaulating that gartley it too has the potential to travel far more than 30 pips when it finally hits, but given there are more gartleys above [if we use differant XA legs] i think it is a bit too risky to go for more than 30 pips. once i was in a similar situation …and price went the 30 pips then went back upto find the other gartleys. i’m a person who tries to learn from his mistakes …so if i take this one it will be for 30 pips. my AUD/USD chart is so messy right now even if i posted it people would have trouble seeing the gartley, so i’ll just leave it to you to find it if you want it. should be easy seeing as i gave ample description.

edit: i hope my x is at the correct extreme for the eur/jpy butterfly. this is one of the rare occasions where im just not too sure. certainly other gartleys from below [using x] could have a claim, however in my favour the butterfly is structurely quite sound [with near perfect ratios] and i notice butterfly’s like this don’t need to always be traded from the furthest extreme if the structre is textbook…

double edit: no, it seems i am just barely protected from those gartleys potential negative influence as in order to be valid the lower gartleys would have to use a different A and B point.

10663

Does the original poster/thread starter (Tmoneybags) still go on here? I’d love to hear some of his insight on this thread as well

10664

hi, tmoneybags is there any way i can fully read your strategy method?
or just i go trough all 1000 pages here?

thnx in beforehand

10665

Hi tomenybags.

i am new to chart patterns and still Learning.

i spotted a ABCD pattern shown in the Picture.

but i was late to take actions lol =P

what do i do now?

do i start again, where i replace D with X or A
and F with A or B till the pattern is finished and then Place an buy/sell.

or do wait som few more Days to spot a new pattern.

thnx in beforehand

ABCD PATTERN.jpg700×394 25.8 KB

10666

BTW is there any pattern where XA is shorter than AB

or where AB is shorter than BC.

or a pattern is if the first leg is bigger than the second.

i hope you understand what i mean.

10667

ok. when we can keep this pip. we will make rich with market. we can get more profit for our life. it is greaat.

10668

I’ve been using the Gartley pattern recently, (in addition to the Cypher pattern sometimes), and I’m confused about one thing…

The school program here states the following:

[I]1) Move AB should be the .618 retracement of move XA.
2) Move BC should be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
[B][U]3[/U][/B]) If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then [B]CD should be 1.272[/B] of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then [B]CD should extend 1.618 [/B]of move BC.
[B][U]4[/U][/B]) Move [B]CD should be .786[/B] retracement of move XA[/I]

I saw a [B]contrast[/B] in this definition… How can CD be 1.272 or 1.618 [U]expansion[/U] of BC [B]if it’s also[/B] 78.6 [U]retracement [/U]of XA??

They don’t go together