30 Pips A day Keeps the your money at bay

Trading Discussion
10772

thanks, but i was looking to embed the images in the page [so people wouldn’t have to click through in a link]

this used to be possible in babypips, but seems like this is not the case anymore?

you used to be able to write [img] and then [ /img] (without the space) and your image would embed.

oh, and as for the classic gartley on the UJ, you are getting the hang of using trendlines i see to add confluence towards your trade, but i worry that the second point you used as your trendline might not be a significant enough high or turning point…

also, if you do take it you will have to take it the way scott m carney trades it [by examining price action in the PRZ once it hits the AB=CD, BC projection, and 78,6% fib level], you should not take it how TMB takes it because the AB projection lands noticeable above the 78.6% fib, to an extent that there is a significant chance it will not find support there…

personally, i will only trade classic gartleys where the 78.6%, the BC projection and the ab=cd projection land very close to each other. why? … if the prz is tight like this i can run a relatively tight stop and get good R:R, ofcource though I look for other confluences too before jumping into the trade.

also i will only trade classic gartleys [as a classic gartley] where is the X is coming from the extreme of price, or the extreme base price or an sma (or mva as marketscope calls it), of the 8sma or 20sma

why? because that is how TMB teaches us to trade patterns are in this thread.
I’m not saying that scott m carneys method is wrong [where he will use any peak in price as his x], …but if i use any peak in price then i have to also examine the prz reaction before entering (and cover a huge area with my stop loss) …whilst i prefer [for the most part to use TMB’s method of entering on the AB=CD and XA fib convergance]

here is an example of a previous trade i took:
View image: KEY TRADING TEACHINGS TMB AND CARNEY PATTERN GAR

i am combining both their methods and have spotted a classic scott m carney gartley, TMB would also refer to this as a gartley because the AB=CD line up with an XA fib

the X for the gartley is on the 8sma of the 4 hour chart,
the AB = CD [orange fibs] line up extremely well with the 78.6 XA, and also the BC projection [green fibs] of 1.272 lands quite close too …creating a tight prz

the various colored lines you see are msrt zones. we can see that price has respected the blue one [a daily msrt zone] and did close above it on the daily chart

this patterns can either be traded the way TMB teaches, where an entry is placed on the .786, and you close out the trade if it closes below this [and also below the daily blue line] or can be taken how scott m carney takes it [by examining price action in the prz before deciding weather to place a trade]

the benefits of taking this how TMB takes it, is that you can run tighter stops for better R:R
if you take the pattern how scott m carney takes it then technically the pattern is invalid only when price passes your X point, which gives you a large stop loss area to cover reducing profit.

looking at that chart, the best way imo is to take it how TMB takes it because it has the daily msrt running through the .768 XA giving me confidence that if price did close below this point there was a decent chance of failure and that it may be better to cut losses at this point rather than hope price would recover and go back up.

if for example the 1.000 ab = cd projection landed somewhat away from the .786 creating a noticeable larger prz then most likely i wouldn’t trade it personally as it is more more unpredictable how far price will range in that zone leading me unable to use a tight stop loss.

with the current UJ gartley, the ab = cd projection lands far enough from the .786 …imo it is unwise to trade this pattern with a tight stop loss, and you are pretty much forced to cover all the way back to your X point

the trade on the EUR/AUD that i took and posted yesterday was taken with a relatively tight SL of 70 pips, and i got 220 pips in return. only because the prz of the converging gartleys was so tight was i able to run a tight SL

A 70 pips SL might not seem like it was tight, but given the patterns size it was…

10773

hi,

you have labeled this chart wrong,
i went and measured the gartley and on your diagram you are saying that the ab = cd convergance is 127.2% and lands at the .786 XA …when in reality the ab = cd convergance is 100% and lands somewhat above the .786 XA

i suspect you have been looking at classic gartley diagrams in google or something, and automatically just assigned common ratio’s without actually making sure to measure them all,

10774

There is another high probability setup developing on EUR/AUD right now. at the time of writing price is still quite a ways from the D point …but the setup has multiple convergances/confluences making this an attractive trade should price reach there.

can anybody else see it :slight_smile:

10775

Hi defiance,

thank you for taking your time to go over the posted chart.

I must confess that I don’t get you. What I’ve measured is visible. Both of the retracements are there and the confluence on 127.2 and .786 is evident for me.
It would really help me if you could post your chart as well so I can see the difference.
Would you be so kind?
Regards and happy Pips …
Nemo

10776

hi all…or 3 ppl who still read this…i love to come back here from time to time to read and lol at the new mombo jumbo the deffiance dude has to say…sry dude:) i love the way you say to other ppl ;;your pattern is wrong’’…’‘this is not a valid convergence area’’ and all this ****…like it matters lol…im surprised to see a person with a solid point in his posts in this thread. Im talking about the torulf 39 .Hi dude ,nice posts with some actual info i saw there…also i dont see the great pattern hunter TMB here and i miss his posts with winning trades only…here is my opinion on the pasaventos great book: its total crap and you will never trade profitably by reading it…same about Carneys books …fak, i got to go…

10777

Aargh!!! My eyes hurt!!! To many lines on those charts for a standard entry! :o

I use a lot less and would have entered on that last low on the last map, with just an SMA. :13:

10778

:slight_smile:

Hi again,

sure, no problem, here’s the chart

View image: forums usdjpy 12 jan 2015

As you can see, the green box is the .786 of XA
the red box is where the AB = CD projection falls. As you can see, it falls near the .886 of XA
the purple circle is where the AB = CD (1.272) proection falls, as you can see it actually falls above the start of the pattern …but you have put this projection by your .786

are you sure you measured this pattern correctly?. within the first 10 pages of this thread Tmoneybags has a link to a youtube video in which he explains how to properly measure the patterns.

10779

2016-01-12_1652 - Hogarste’s library
Here is a cheat sheet for harmonics. If you understand the concept of why they work, this will help. To learn them, I used to draw them out on paper and note the various percentages

10780

LOL here we go again…do you really think that placing 2 fibs in a certain way will make you money of the markets long term? in this loooong thread nobody is talking about entry confirmation and actual change of trend before entering the markets with your own money…what u do here is waiting a big move to come to your entry order and triger it and bounce …this is just a dumb contertrend trading with no other tools involved and its doomed to fail with more % chance than the patterns you think you see…TMB got a new set of 20 more imaginary fib lines far more powerfull and bouncy than the original ones lol…go check em out …they shiny…fak, i got to go again:46:

10781

if you are knowledgeable then why don’t you teach instead of constantly attemtping to get under people’s skin.

i suspect you enjoy the latter too much, that’s why.

and yes this is a counter trading thread but also TMB is not just “placing 2 fibs in a certain way” … there’s more to it than that, or how would he be making money if that’s all he’s doing

you are right though, in that if you are solely relying on fibonacci convergance as your signal for entry then you won’t be profitable in the long run.

as for the new fibs, i tried them out around a year ago. I personally found that i was doing worst with these fibs stopped using them and went back to the old fibs. However Looking back, i was still doing quite a few things wrong back then …so i may try them again sometime in the future.

10782

Hi defiance,

Thank you for sharing.
Well, it seems that you did the following: According to TMBs videos (of course I watched them) you repositioned the AB retracement to the CD leg. So far this is OK, because we want the inherent AB=CD pattern to be completed, so CD should be at least 1.00 of AB.
But the Gartley 222 does not say anything more about the relation of AB and CD. The original Gartley does not mean, that D must be at a certain extension level of CD, but it states on page 57, that D is usually at extension level 127.2 of AB and ideally something like .786 of XA.
Therefore I did the drawing the way I did.

I strongly believe, that your approach could be “correct” in the way you use it, but it seems to me as if it is not the classical way the pattern was meant.
I also believe that the more complicated a trading strategy is, the more error prune it is. I could imagine that using SMAs instead of a top, or a bottom could work, but I see the risk of kindof “overfitting” things, too. Might be that it works, and might be that drawn that way the Fib levels are more aligned, but I don’t want to “make the lines fit”. I just do what is done by guys like Gartley and Pesavento and try to keep things simple. By doing so I take advantage of a certain accuracy. Might be that your approach is even more accurate and profitable, but I have no reference in terms of back- and forwardtestresults.

For the time being I just try to learn the basics, train my eyes to spot those within the charts and am happy if I could make some profit. Once this step is taken I would be happy to adapt some of TMBs techniques and backtest them.

In the meanwhile … Happy Pips …
Nemo

10783

right to the point…he is not making money…quite the opposite…i dont know how and why u believe in what u believe, but tmb was a weak trader last time i saw him trading, i hope he menaged to get better…i saw an account going to -99% under 20 trades agains the trend ofcourse…tata:24:

10784

hi nemo

this is quote directly from scott’s book page 98

Gartley Pattern Elements:
• Precise 61.8% B point retracement of XA leg.
• BC projection must not exceed 1.618.
[B]• Equivalent AB=CD pattern is most common.[/B]
• 0.786 XA retracement.
• C point within range of 0.382–0.886 retracement.

also from page 98 of the harmonic trader volume 1:

“The pattern should possess a distinct and
equivalent AB=CD pattern that converges in the same area as the 0.786 XA retracement.”

There is a lot more, but basically the gartley must atleast have an AB = CD pattern or an AB = CD (127.2)

I also believe that the more complicated a trading strategy is, the more error prune it is.

This is true imo. I agree.

but also, generally the easier a trading strategy is, the less likely it is to make you any money in the long term. you forget trading is competitive. only 5% of people are making money long term.

consider this. what percentage of traders do you think can trade a simple crossover system where you buy where one sma crosses the other one, and you sell when one sma dips under the other one?

my guess atleast 80% of traders can do that.
but let me ask you. are any traders actually long term profitable with such simple systems? the answer is no. personally i have never seen such a basic cross over system result in long term profits for a trader.

I realised pretty early on after coming to the world of forex that the piss easy systems tended to be the ones where no one was making any real money, and after i realised this i made sure to avoid them and try and learn a more difficult system.

I have been with this thread a long time, and am only just starting to reach some real competancy which has been reflected in my recent results over the last few months. It will still be quite a while before i dare say that i’m there, but at the moment i believe im on the path to consistancy.

the sma as X point, i did not pluck from thin air, it is described by TMB in this thread, it took me a very long time before i was able to use this technique and have the gartleys work. It requires more skill than a simple cross over system. I am confident the technique works and have taken many patterns on it now. Maybe i am just slow and that’s why it took me so long to get this sma technique but I see very few people in this thread using the sma technique which leads me to beleive that it is true that it isn’t easy. In forex if something works, and not that many people can make it work …it is a good indication of a system with potential to yield long term profits…

regarding pesavento. I have read his book, and tried trading them like him and, personally it didn’t really help me much. That is why i don’t follow the methods in his book. If you are finding you are profitable with his methods that’s great though …but i am finding what is working best for me is TMB’s stuff with a bit of scott m carneys stuff chucked in

10785

please post some actual proof of this if it is true.

I saw a myfxbook of his some years ago and he was definately profitable. I haven’t seen one recently.

My guy instict though, is that TMB has made considerably more money with the techniques outlined in this thread than he has lost.

10786

What is your proof for this opinion? A myfxbook from some years ago is just what that is, a myfxbook from some years ago.

Please take some effort to proof your counter opinion when you challenge one elses. I would promote such opinions as I would not want everyone want to trade the same strategy (liquidity wise). Perhaps it is better to keep it for yourself. :slight_smile:

10787

Proof would be atleast a screenshot … or a link to a new myfxbook [he said TMB destroyed a new account, so perhaps this account had a myfxbook]

and no, the onus is not on me to prove anything, as I am not the one walking into threads claiming the profitable topic creater is blowing up accounts

edit: and thanks, but no i am not worried about “everyone” trading the same strategy, as they would have to be able to trade it [U]right[/U] first. It seems like no one can even see the high probablity set up on EURAUD developing, despite me casting spotlight upon the pair

10788

hello ppl… i know you are searching for the edge in trading in general and all this is coming out of u wanting to improve some aspect of your lives, and i admire this behaviour and preach it and constantly live it myself…/a free and strong spirit is all we started with, right?/ here is what i dislike: this thread topic became toooo damn long and actually other people who want to learn trading with much bigger desire than the starter himself are keeping this thing alive…if i was the starter i would have kept the honest tone from page 1, post 1 and i would have shared all the ups and DOWNS of my trading path up to date…another thing i dislike is this: a new learner comes here and gets ignited with passion to learn the ways of the successfull trader TMB and live the dream, but its all roses at the end right?..do you deserve to wait for a faking year for a response from your new guru?? do you even question the success rate of your new guru?..If this thing/the thread/ has started as a personal journal of some trader 5-6 years ago, it totally failed…why? cos the guy is not here, he is not journalling his trades on a daily or even monthly basis, he haven’t given anything special here except a strategy that is tooo wide for one to grasp,why???there is no plan, no back test info, no trading history, no risk management info just a string of wining set ups screen captured at the right time and …lol ,i forgot the bitter part…here we are, reading a thread that strongly advise to trade against the faking trend…!?:)…
Now deffiance dude…hi again…i would not post personal data and account screen shots here because its not all right to do so…thanks for pointing eur/aud, …just cashed 200+pips on multi poss + eur/usd confirmed the move …if u want info or a proof as u said skype me at gad_rado

faaak …got to go

EURAUDM5.jpg700×246 15.2 KB

EURUSDM5.jpg700×246 15.4 KB

10789

well, i’ve never used skype before in my life. I’ve always been meaning to get it but never quite got round it. Ok, i will get skype, too much people are asking for my skype. I think I need to order a headset ? … i will order one, then when it arrives i will try and contact you …and listen what you have to say

i will send a message to TMB too and see if he would like to say anything too

I must admit, i do like this thread, but i am open to other ideas on trading too

10790

Having an opened mine is the most powerful tool anyone can have, that alone will give one the edge needed to have success in everything one does. :cool:

10791

Your charts look interesting… pity I can’t enlarge the images to work out what your strategy is :wink:

E: meant to write “can’t” not “can”.