5 loss in a row

Hello.
How you Handle with 5-6 loss in a row? It is time for considering something is wrong with me or strategy or its normal in probability (example 60% accuracy) ?

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At least take a time to put your mind in the proper space. 5 losses in a row can do horrible things to your psychology. Let the losses dull down a little bit.

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I don’t count consecutive wins/losses. Because I trade very mechanically, I know that the outcome isn’t at my discretion. So usually, the consecutive outcomes aren’t worth logging: they’re generated by the system, not by me. As I know the system is long-term profit-making, it doesn’t matter how many / how few trades are winners or losers - as long as I run enough trades I will make money.

BUT -

  1. I sometimes close a trade manually before the rules for exit kick in, for example if we’re approaching late in the day and price movement has fallen away as volume decreases: but this doesn’t happen often, less than 5 times a week

  2. maximum losses are a fraction of my account capital, so I can withstand consecutive losers until the strategy picks up performance again

I tested my strategy on demo so far. It was profitable. But now…its worse :slight_smile:

In addition, though the number of losses in a row don’t mean anything, I do track the total money lost during the day. The strategy works best when markets are making long candles with extended periods of time in one direction or the other. Short daily candles, completing as inside days, are bad. I have found that once losses through the day reach -3r, where r is the standard risk per single trade, the strategy will not re-coup that level of loss on that day, so I quit trading for that day.

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Everyone has their own definition of ‘losing’. You only lose when you close the trade.

How is it you are losing, are your stops getting hit? If so, go back to those charts in a couple days and see if those trades would have turned in your favour had your stops been wider. Keeping a journal to document each trade is important when you’re just starting as it allows you to analyze your good trades as well as your bad ones. This can help you to make adjustments to your strategy. Strategies can (and should) evolve over months, years, before one completely settles on one that’s right for that person.

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Stop hits. 2% risk per each one

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What are your position sizes in comparison with your account size? You might consider cutting position sizes in half to give them more room.

It will be not correct with my system besides I would feel uncomfortable. It is always 2% of depo.

I tried wider but…it was terrific :slight_smile:

I’m not saying to increase your risk, I would never recommend more than 1-2%. However, if you cut your position size in half (example 5000 units instead of 10,000 units), it will take twice as many pips to reach your 2% SL, giving your trade more room.

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With what we really need to discover yourself ? What exactly so much important is going on there for many many your trades… you mentioned demo, forget about it , it’s just for playing and lot of things will not really work here totally and completely.

So how can i get confidence of system and myself? I can test it only on demo…

Bro if its 60% accuracy then in 100 trades you can have 40 wrong trades so 5 is nothing. If you’ve checked it in demo and know its profitable then carry on.

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It all depends on the strategy you are using. Sometimes a strategy could have such series under the specific market conditions. For example, trend-based strategies could generate series like this during the flat movement. In other words, first of all you need to understand the reason: whether it caused by underperformance of the strategy itself or due to the mistakes made by the trader. By the way, the easiest way to check the performance of the strategy in long term perspective is to test it using special software like Forex Tester, that executes simulated trades using historical data provided by brokers. Such testing could show you that, for example, 5 losses in a row is absolutely normal for your strategy, or such situations could take place under some specific market conditions. At the same time, testing could also show that such situations aren`t common for your strategy. In this case, you will have to search for the mistake in your actions and trading decisions.
Anyway, as it was mentioned before, you should try to reduce psychological impact of such loss. It is great that you pay attention to issues like this, so hope you will be able to deal with it.

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Demo are hideous in this way. They lure you to trade live by showing you gains no matter what!

Oof, that’s sad to read, @Bugsy86

@Bugsy86 as a new trader you should first learn to accumulate pips. Use a lot size of 1 if your broker allows it. Once you reach a win rate of 55% or higher and you are able to bag positive pips then you can increase your risk slowly.

If you start off with a 2% risk right away then you will likely blow your account very soon.

I think the absolute cumulative size of those losses should not exceed 5-6% percents of capital. If you have 1000 dollars equity, losing 50-60 bucks is not so painful as losing 200 or 300 dollars in N consecutive trades.

It will be easier to recover and remember that it is the hardest part in trading - the way how you stand up after being punched painfully by the market.

I dont understand. Use 1 lot? :smiley: You mean 0.01 lot? I cant decrease it more.