Month end over - Euro land woes remain, even heightened re Spain so guess what happens:
Almost boring but yet again anything on TA (thinking with the FA) to suggest the fall on Eur/Gbp today, i.e. Euro weakness?
Using US10yr (risk)
And to be completely boring was there anything else, not too technical, just something simple like…
Trading the news and trading the techs, imagine the power of two 
And finally that’s all hindsight nonsense, as always it’s right side that counts.
The market is unsure, that hammer - the wick didn’t get to the 20, sells were not triggered.
Some risk over the weekend, upcoming trade war (mostly losers are consumers) Italy and Spain politics etc.
Possible weekend gaps up ahead.
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The uncertainty manifested in price on Monday up, on Tuesday down.
The 20 remained protected, so sells yet again not triggered.
The news factor here is Brexit, the market remains focused on GBP side of the news.
If price breaches the 20 on Brexit news then likely soaking of orders between 00 and 20 and then a leg down, sells would be triggered.
And a little more hindsight nonsense, imagine that on Monday evening that a trader agreed with me that the market was unsure, was there anything to back up that it could turn on Tuesday morning UK time - after a tight Asian?
And even more looking back (post 46) - the shift in risk, here is how the Eur/Usd chart looks a week later, that blue line seems to have been a red line for buyers.
And finally over to the right side, tomorrow will be a Brexit news day, it’s difficult to see how the market will react, it already has a sense of that news as the Price Action guys will advise - it’s already priced in.
But is it? - GBP/USD says GBP positive since May 29, 08.00 gmt, so good news for the pound.
Hmmm… thinking in broader terms, looking at that blue line above, then the chart above that c/w it’s red line.
Of course the news was not ‘priced in’ - that’s offered as a reason not to bother learning the news, the blue line gives an indication of how the market perceives the Euro right now, buy or sell.
‘Tomorrow’ in the post above was Thursday which the market knew was going to be a Brexit news day.
The red line was a ‘support’ price where the short term bots were programmed to buy.
Ahhh…the red line
Edit: btw same red line as back in post 45
Final post on this - just pointing out the value of levels and how they can be used as a reference point - a marker of where buys/sells happen.
Back up I mentioned the 20 level (decided to show that level ).
The day following the above post was a ECB news day and the buys bailed. New or existing buyers came to the game at the 20 level.
Now they are having a think about taking it higher, having gotten past yesterday’s high (that red line yet again
I know I said final post, but thought I’d mention what happened after above post - price fell on ECB news - back down to the 20 yet again - and of course back up thru the red line before Friday close.
The red line was yet again support this morning - support and resistance in action.
Remember back at end of April and watch out if a Euro seller and month end - likewise second last day of May I drew attention to the descending triangle enticing some sellers.
Now second last day of June and dbl top yesterday, then break of yesterday’s low and break of the 00 late in the day.
Same thing yet again:
A bit confusing discussing the move and using inverse graph, probably we could get clearer notion with traditional direct exchange rate
Ontario - most above charts are Eur/Gbp - usually GMT and usually hr1 - if not then detailed.
None are inverse - pointing out how and why Euro gets bought near month end, explanation is back a bit.
Also pointing out how easy it is to see sells using TA at this time - that’s just the MM wizardry, also the reason why you may have thought the charts were inverse.
Edit: posts 57 couple weeks ago to today’s are all the same chart - todays shows the past couple of days, previous was start of this week, see how price hit the red line that has been there for a long time, that early GMT - that was the buy or ‘support’ level.
For more clarity - post 52 was beginning of this month - the level that was important was the 20 (i.e. 87.20).
If that was breached on brexit news then sells, there was a poor attempt at 87.18 mid month but again just the MM’s getting a good price, there was no Brexit news positive for GBP.
Here is the same chart, this time for all of June on hr4) - now possible to see clearly.
Yellow line 87.20
Oh I thought it’s EURUSD so its my bad that I calculated it incorrectly. Glad to see you’re working with basic S/R lines to avoid confusion related to other complicated price indicators
Yeah, levels are important, but indicators can be used to get a sense of what’s likely to happen up ahead.
For example, today I placed a down arrow on Eur/Gbp half hour before NFP .
Went a few pips above the arrow but the indicator got it correct - back to the 88.50 level was the order of the day…
Now having said that it’s Fri afternoon, so back to that level was not really a surprise, but imagine what the 10-15 pip guys can do with that.
Indicators are just that - an indication of what may happen during/after news.
Looks like there was a failure swing formation, i.e. confirmation of short-term reversal. Seems all EA point to the same fact just want use different approaches, sometimes too confusing, sometimes not.
The old red line is history I mentioned on another thread 10 days ago about a new one,
60 years later, the beginning of the new EU - post 143
The Brexit news has remained pretty much as was since, so the TA came to the fore.
The bottom line is 88.20 - buy orders sitting there, was previously 87.20 as mentioned up above.
This is news trading on a news trend - steps to levels:
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