A brief share, questions around volume, any contribution welcome

[emeraldorc]

I agree. I don’t like that pair or usdjpy. Having said that, I apply strict VSA principles no matter what pair I trade or time frame. I know you go across several time frames, so our takes even though we apply the same principles would be different. Especially I know you consider up coming fundamentals, and the top and bottom of the cycle and and I do not. I trade after the fact. For example Wednesday is the big fundi day for USD, GPB, EUR almost all coming out between London/NY overlap. I wait until everything is done, then consider that information and I will trade either Sydney/Tokyo overlap or depending on what’s coming on Thurs the London/NY overlap.

That’s what’s so great about the forex, lot a different ways to skin the cat.

I agree too. I like your terminology “fundi day” LOL!

It will be crazy but it adds validation to any upcoming direction. Right now the markets pulse has frozen even the NOK has paused for breadth. It will start again as soon as the weak positions have been taken out. The USD for me will be the real boat rocker.

There are definitely many ways to skin the cat. I only have my trades on the NOK running so not in any real danger just looking for that good time to jump in as it appears the Euro shows some promise.

We shall see…

[gp00053]

Thanks for sharing GP. I’m glad to finally see the Wycoff cycle. I have a hard time trying to spot it. Maybe I look for it on the wrong TF. What TF you think it can been seen more clearly?

No problem here’s a site with lots of info on Volume Spread Analysis. There is a PDF download that talks about the 4 phases in depth.
Volume Spread Analysis Trading Method - Forex Strategies - Forex Resources - Forex Trading-free forex trading signals and FX Forecast

Here’s another great VSA presentation. You don’t need to watch the whole thing just the 1st 35 minutes or so, until he starts talking about the indicators he’s selling. I’m not vouching for any pkg’s for sale, just his first 35 minutes where he’s talking about VSA and it’s phases

[emeraldorc]

FxPro AUDUSD h4 tT0wn | cTrader

I have decided on a long position on the Ozzie. There has been a lot of volume on the sell side with that now seems to be stalling into congestion. A lot of volume comes in usually at the tail end of the move so my guess is that buying is soon to commence.

My stop is below 0.9200, I will tighten in the event the reflex area developing is violated this will suggest that potentially the next support is 0.9200 and this correction will extend.

The S&P VIX is heading lower indicating that equities are on the rise and any reversal expected when the VIX hits 11-12 on the index. This coincides with equity performance.

Copper is rising again and Gold seems to have paused at 1311. The G20 today will focus on Ukraine so the market may use this moment to affect Gold and the USD at the moment both are out of kilter. Anyway judging from the reaction from all other pairs, I expect the USD to fall in the coming weeks but I expect some shaking out of weak positions on the retail data today.

[PipMeHappy]

@PipMeHappy

Hello GP and Emerald…

Good luck with all the trades…

Tomorrow will be interesting for EUR and GBP outlook…

I have been trying to define what a cycle is, in currencies, and it is much less of a definable beast than, say,

in stocks/equities… I have been trying squaring and triangulation, with mixed results, on GBP/USD…

The basic question is this: if we were given, say, data for a currency pair for the last forty years, where would

we place the cycle periods? Every year? Every two, three, five, seven, etc.? Where would you start…from the

middle of the time-span, or from the beginning, or even the end?

My head is spinning… I tried a few things but in the end I come back to Support/Resistance, or, rather,

Demand/Supply zones, and volume levels (if you have access to volume data when trading).

For example, looking at GBP/USD data over the last ten years, or over the last fifty, still shows to me that

the 1.7000 level is a very significant one… Everything else beside that pales into insignificance if we know

that that level has been a crucial battlefield for huge swings either side of it…

No matter what technique you use to guide you forward, whether you are a Fib champion or an RSI specialist,

or even a Moving Average crosser or a VPA analyst, adding cycles does not necessarily tell you the future, nor,

in the case of GBP/USD, tell you on which side of said 1.7000 we will be in, say, twelve months…

While I had a stab at creating cyclic pictures for

EUR/USD (http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/57723-eur-usd-long-term-outlook-strategy-2.html) and

EUR/GBP (EUR/GBP Cycle Window shows upward mobility | Forex Crunch) but I am not convinced

that I can just ‘buy/sell and hold’ for the next five years, for example… How can one be so certain of such

projections into ether, when even the major financial institutions have to revise their forecasts several times

a year, due to their data not matching reality on more occasions than one dares to remember?

I am not sure about cycles… Maybe this super-long trading is not for me… Maybe I am more of a day trader…

But I am going back to work in a couple of weeks and from then on it will be game over for that kind of trading…

So the research into some kind of ‘perfect’ compromise between trading and a day job continues…

I think that I will go back to my ‘round-number’ levels approach, which has been serving me reasonably well of late…

E.g. for the Cable, these would be 1.7000, 1.6950, 1.6900, 1.6850, 1.6800, and so forward… When price crosses

one of these levels, does it come straight back up, or does it clear the level? How often does this happen? I would

have to do a statistical count (e.g. on a Day time-frame) of how many times it pushes just below/above a significant

‘round-number’ level only to return to whichever side of the level it was on before attempting to pierce below/above it…

Then I would have to count the number of times when it did actually go past said level(s) and turn them from Support

to Resistance, or viceversa…

Maybe this will give me more of a method…

Good luck to you, people!

Happy trading.

Hello!

First results are in; it looks like the highest number of CLOSES on the Daily chart, 1993 - 2014, was

between 1.61 and 1.62, making this either a very ‘strong’ or a very high-frequency level, or even a

level with a high interest from an institutional investing angle…

GbpUsdMajorLevelsRelativeStrengthAnalysis.pdf (48.3 KB)

[emeraldorc]

Six Reasons To Buy US Treasuries (In 1 Chart)

A thought on U.S. Bonds. More flows into U.S bonds? Away from what? European assets my guess is… Not so good for the Euro.

[emeraldorc]

Hello!

First results are in; it looks like the highest number of CLOSES on the Daily chart, 1993 - 2014, was

between 1.61 and 1.62, making this either a very ‘strong’ or a very high-frequency level, or even a

level with a high interest from an institutional investing angle…

Nice Work! Respect to you. great data…

[gp00053]

Hello!

First results are in; it looks like the highest number of CLOSES on the Daily chart, 1993 - 2014, was

between 1.61 and 1.62, making this either a very ‘strong’ or a very high-frequency level, or even a

level with a high interest from an institutional investing angle…

Nice job. My head is spinning just reading what you did.:eek:
With regard to cycle periods, I use the time frame I’m traders for starters, and them maybe see how it compares to the full amount of data. I think that’s a big problem traders get into by using a data that’s not relevant to the data in the time frame their trading.

For example you go to the monthly chart and even daily, then trade on the 30 minute time frame. GBPUSD is a great example. 1 hour + shows down trend; 30 minute or less shows uptrend.
Anyway great job my friend
Gp

[PipMeHappy]

Nice job. My head is spinning just reading what you did.:eek:
With regard to cycle periods, I use the time frame I’m traders for starters, and them maybe see how it compares to the full amount of data. I think that’s a big problem traders get into by using a data that’s not relevant to the data in the time frame their trading.

For example you go to the monthly chart and even daily, then trade on the 30 minute time frame. GBPUSD is a great example. 1 hour + shows down trend; 30 minute or less shows uptrend.
Anyway great job my friend
Gp

You are bang on, gp00053… Best way would be to have two accounts: one for long-term trades and one for shorter-term ones, on the same pairs… For my data, Jake (Forexunlimited) helped me finding a way to have my trading platform displaying charts as tables, which are then exportable to Excel… Then, all I had to do was sorting the Close column in descending order and count the numbers up… Easy … I am now thinking that I may have better use for this if I zoomed in on the levels closest to current price action (for this and for other pairs that I trade), which will allow me to display the half (e.g. 1.6850) and quarter (e.g. 1.6825; 1.6875) levels…

Happy trading.

[emeraldorc]

Ozzie is holding firm at London close and into the NY still going.

I am in this for a while. Closed my NOK trades today, looks like the market has paused and with GBP looking to correct could see a correction on the NOK too but not bad profits at all for 2 days trading. Will keep an eye on this if it retraces.

Tomorrow will see the market find direction again.

Happy trading guys!

[emeraldorc]

The Privilege Of Watching War

The many reasons why the USD will only have blips of excitement. Add this dilemma to Ukraine, we are on the brink of the FED heading back to printing money to pay for those bombs. Can’t wait the next shock that will lead to USD selling…

Thought this article was worth a share.

[emeraldorc]

FxPro EURUSD h4 g20wn | cTrader

Finally worked up the gall to take a long position on the Euro stop below 1.3300. The market is hinting a Euro fall so perhaps one should be a contrarian.

I don’t think it will get above 1.3470 so I am happy to settle on the smaller profit. Could be a 4th wave correction or congestion before the up move. I am still on a long term sell above 1.3470 but for now it is a buy.

Closed my Aussie trade, didn’t like the behavior at that 55 EMA level. Could be missing some fundamentals on that one. So got out +18 pips.

[keen246]

Great info. Thanks GP. I never have enough of all the great information I read on this thread from you guys.

[emeraldorc]

Hello my good people. Looks like it was an exciting day. I missed most of the action except for my Euro trade that is still showing green. I am still firmly long on this pair. The short move is showing falling volume. My guess profit taking from news traders. Since I am still in the trade it is a hold. Still looking at 1.3470 before a major retrace lower. Conviction!

FxPro EURUSD h4 JZ0wn | cTrader

My GBP/NOK that I closed… I am kicking myself so hard if only you could see me. If you guys remember my original target on this pair? I closed early because I figured that Carney may deliver a shock and it was worth waiting… Well just look at what happened. A reminder that the order flow never lies. Can’t cry over spilt milk. I did profit after all. I thought it would retrace to the yellow lines before heading lower…Well it just went lower and didn’t look back. Too late now. 10.123 next buying target or 10.19 area.

FxPro GBPNOK h4 yZ0wn | cTrader

Anyway I let’s see how the Euro figures.

I am about to start inspecting the fundamentals behind this madness but looking at US retail figures I would say the market was happy enough with the reduction business inventories as a better indicator or it all rests on those jobs figures to move the market lower against the USD.

The UK’s stagnant wage position has obviously crushed the markets last hope of a rate hike despite unemployment falling this figure will be key. The drop in real wages was enough to move sterling. Target 1.6453. I am selling this guy on the retrace appears like irregular B wave correction which means a smaller retrace if that happens then it is sell baby sell!

FxPro GBPUSD h4 gZ0wn | cTrader

[hmuhein]

I think the cable is oversold today, just my 2 cents.

[PipMeHappy]

Hello Emeraldorc, aka Professor of Volume Price Analysis…

GBP/USD dropped a neat 150+ pips today… This also means that, finally, EUR/GBP

****ed two fingers up at EUR/USD (which did not move much at all) and went its own

separate way and finally reconquered the 0.80 mark, which it had been trying to do

for some time…

I am still 10k long the EUR/GBP and have great hopes in the medium term for this

pair.

I also made a little handsome profit on the NZD short side, with one of four Kiwi-short

trades making me a small but respectable profit (it was a NZD/CAD from last week).

I read on Reuters today that for the UK to really benefit from cheaper exports the GBP/USD

would have to drop considerably lower, which suggests that Carney’s deliberate dovish stance

may be carefully considered to instigate a Pound depreciation… Actually, I think it unlikely…

I am actually trading also the FTSE100 (SHORT) as the volatile situation in Ukraine threatens

its recent bull run…There is money to be made… However, I am also watching it as a barometer

for Pound yields, as investors have flocked to this equities index due to low bond yields (negatively

affected by a declining Sterling)…Therefore, a rising FTSE100 COULD SPELL a continuing Pound drop…

Nothing is certain: watch all signals and take nothing for granted!

[Jason_Rogers]

I think the cable is oversold today, just my 2 cents.

Interesting you should say so, Hmuhein

One thing notable about the drop is it occured on the largest volume spike in over 16 months.

Welcome to BabyPips! :57:

[emeraldorc]

Interesting you should say so, Hmuhein

One thing notable about the drop is it occured on the largest volume spike in over 16 months.

Welcome to BabyPips! :57:

I was just about to point that out Jason. It is likely the longterm direction for GDP is down. Besides sterling is over valued. No Interest rate hikes, no wage increases, unemployment is low but that is just a technicality that occurred because the government has been meddling the figures seeing 2015 is an election year. GDP is the real muscle for the UK economy but the rest is cannon fodder.

So my bet is Sterling will have to live with those 1.6400 levels plus when rates do go up Carney would prefer that 1.7000 is resistance rather than support. A good time to sell Sterling and buy it 2015 when it is dirt cheap. Right now no one wants Sterling that high especially seeing kid Cameron loves a bit of exports.

[emeraldorc]

Hello Emeraldorc, aka Professor of Volume Price Analysis…

GBP/USD dropped a neat 150+ pips today… This also means that, finally, EUR/GBP

****ed two fingers up at EUR/USD (which did not move much at all) and went its own

separate way and finally reconquered the 0.80 mark, which it had been trying to do

for some time…

I am still 10k long the EUR/GBP and have great hopes in the medium term for this

pair.

I also made a little handsome profit on the NZD short side, with one of four Kiwi-short

trades making me a small but respectable profit (it was a NZD/CAD from last week).

I read on Reuters today that for the UK to really benefit from cheaper exports the GBP/USD

would have to drop considerably lower, which suggests that Carney’s deliberate dovish stance

may be carefully considered to instigate a Pound depreciation… Actually, I think it unlikely…

I am actually trading also the FTSE100 (SHORT) as the volatile situation in Ukraine threatens

its recent bull run…There is money to be made… However, I am also watching it as a barometer

for Pound yields, as investors have flocked to this equities index due to low bond yields (negatively

affected by a declining Sterling)…Therefore, a rising FTSE100 COULD SPELL a continuing Pound drop…

Nothing is certain: watch all signals and take nothing for granted!

Yes Pip. I missed it all but as you know I was always waiting to see the reaction at 1.6717 before taking a view on Sterling but most significantly Sterling had broken through a major trend line. This was evident on GBP/NOK which I did take and cut profits short at +70 pips there about.

The next opportunity is retrace back 1.6717 this will a good selling area. Congrats to all you guys who traded your plans and took those pips.

Don’t mind Pipme, he is now an expert as well at VPA not forgetting GP as well who has made some descent trades on VPA. Love all you guys, you make my trading experience so much better.

[Jason_Rogers]

I was just about to point that out Jason. It is likely the longterm direction for GDP is down. Besides sterling is over valued. No Interest rate hikes, no wage increases, unemployment is low but that is just a technicality that occurred because the government has been meddling the figures seeing 2015 is an election year. GDP is the real muscle for the UK economy but the rest is cannon fodder.

So my bet is Sterling will have to live with those 1.6400 levels plus when rates do go up Carney would prefer that 1.7000 is resistance rather than support. A good time to sell Sterling and buy it 2015 when it is dirt cheap. Right now no one wants Sterling that high especially seeing kid Cameron loves a bit of exports.

Current retail trader positioning supports your idea to sell the British Pound. The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for GBP/USD stands at 2.38 meaning there are 2.38 long positions for every short position.

That’s a rise from yesterday’s reading of 1.85. Since SSI is a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long and buying more still is a signal that cable may continue lower.

[emeraldorc]

Thank you Jason for that insight.

This is purely Sterling weakness, not so strangely the USD is incredibly weak as well and is really being supported by weaker currencies but check out the S&P 500. Now that looks like the start of a 5th wave suggesting a possible higher high for the index. A major indicator that capital is flowing into stocks at this point I would say from short term bonds take a look at the 3 month bond yields.

It is only a matter of time before we see flows from cash to stocks. Gold is holding firm and long term bond yields are really low. Not looking so rosy for the USD. A good time to start looking at Comm dolls and less at those majors like GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

Happy trading folks!