A brief share, questions around volume, any contribution welcome

Good morning all. Looking forward to another eventful day for the USD family.

Still long on the Euro. It seems to have frozen after yesterday’s shake off. In any case not looking for too much on that trade.

To bring our attention to the Ozzie.

FxPro AUDUSD h4 Zu0wn | cTrader

Check out the volume spike that brought the Ozzie back to life. My guess is it will top 0.9338 before rebounding. The strength of that rebound will determine whether the pair will go higher or lower. So not one to buy just yet if you are not already long on it. Hopefully today’s figures will help that journey to that 0.9338 high. I was sadly long on this pair and got out.

FxPro GBPJPY h4 mu0wn | cTrader

Looking at the massive volume coming on this pair. Anyone need validation for GBP short? Looks like an irregular b wave correction developing indicating the rebound will be short. Clear indication that Sterling is going South but expect a retrace in the next couple of days. Just a thought…

Good morning Emerald…

Here is a lovely summer scene from Scotland


Urgh…

Speaking of Scotland, and the Sterling, what are your

thoughts on this?
http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/67680-scottish-independence-impact-gbp-o.html

Happy trading x

Oh my god! I thought London was grey today…

First off, it will be more than good news for Scotland. The UK tax regime for the wealthy is not in the least bit friendly and taxation on business is the reason why we only have overseas companies moving in and no real UK companies growing.

I phoned my favorite radio station LBC 97.3 when the conversation started and my view was Scotland will no doubt cease the opportunity to become a tax haven for businesses and in turn suck the last British enterprise North. This time Scotland will rebuild Hadrian’s wall…

The biggest danger is the emergence of a Scottish pound or the adoption of the Euro. If you add this to the takeover of the North sea Oil drilling Scotland stands to be the jewel of the British Isles. You have to commend Alex Salmon for the timing of this. This would have been less likely to succeed under a labour regime.

This could be the dominant reason for Institutional Sterling selling. The insiders are really selling a rare thing in the past year for sterling and it is not just a sell it is a dump. The impact on the UK economy will be profound. Job losses especially with the closure of Faslane and area close to my heart as an Ex-Navy man. Faslane employs thousands of people and the home of UK submarine fleet (whoops! BRITISH!). Add this to the already slashed job numbers from the Portsmouth closure something I did not think I would witness in my life time. Before anyone says it is a small impact, the military is a large employer in rural Britain and several communities depend on it.

There will also be a brain drain as people from the UK will flock to Scotland looking for better health and education and likely better jobs. If we add that to the loss of business tax revenues and the fact that the UK will have to buy North sea Oil, we could see the UK become more dependent on foreign oil something that the US is desperately trying to escape.

The big question mark is the armed forces. The SAS is primarily made up off Scots and it is not a myth, the Scots are born to fight. Not to mention the other Scottish regiments that will move to a new Scottish army. This will certainly reduce the UK’s defense capabilities, yes…historically there has been an alliance between the UK and Scots, if I am not mistaken conjured to life by Mary Queen of Scots. This will no doubt have a role to play in mitigating this loss after all any invasion of the UK will affect Scotland so in affect it is a marriage that will persist despite divorce.

My final word… Brace yourself if this does happen. Sadly I think the game is over. I think it is the only card Scotland can play. Judging by Andy Murray’s reaction at Wimbledon I would say it is a done deal… :wink:

Oh! To ensure my view was untainted. I am only reading the article now after this post…

Hi Emerald… lots of valid points…

Sadly, there can never be certainties about the future, let alone the future of a ‘nation’…

When you look at the low rates attracting investment, look at the social divisions that the tech boom

is providing to San Francisco right now: increasing numbers of homeless people, and ordinary homebuyers

squeezed out of town by the new companies moving in with all their higher-waged employee.

While this is a small example, it suffices in highlighting how profits for a few can come at the cost for many:

what happened in Aberdeen, home constituency of Alex Salmond? Oil moved in post-1969, squeezing

generations of fishermen and women out, demolishing their houses, and dumping giant structures in what

was an 18th/19th century housing and architectural fabric, as well destroying communities. Who benefits?

The private companies: trying to buy a house or rent a flat in the centre of Aberdeen is prohibitive unless

you work for a company in the oil and gas sector… A typical first course in Aberdeen’s many restaurants

is around 11 Pounds… when it should really cost 8. A typical one-bedroom centre flat in this small city

can cost on average 800 pounds, when it should really cost 500, based on size and quality. . . And yet

Aberdonians of old still live here, and those who have not wanted to join the black gold train have lost out,

big time: teachers, nurses, council workers, and people in their droves clog the suburbs and the connecting

commuter roads, much like in London, except this is not a city the size of London, and the council’s greed

saw oil and gas as a money-spinner, where, in fact, they lost out a big deal from this… they sold their city

for pennies.

And then there is Mr. Salmond himself: great defender of Wallace’s descendants, champion of equality for

Scots up from the Outer Hebrides and down to the Border towns… It will suffice to say this: when Aberdeen

city council gave its final and unequivocal vote against tycoon Donald Trump’s plans to buy out and bulldoze

a piece of Aberdeen coastline, including a system of ancient sand dunes that had been protected for decades

under the ‘Site of Special Scientific Interest’ (the equivalent status that could be afforded to a Grade A listed

building in architecture), who was it who menacingly out-ruled a democratically elected council’s decision?

Indeed, the 'phone call came from the man himself: Alex Salmond, thanks to whom the irreplaceable swathe

of ancient sand dunes at Balmedie is now a private golf course for wealthy members; not only that, the

‘economic argument’ of creating thousands of jobs for the local economy was not only disputed by economists

but proven wrong when not only it failed to live up to its promise but actually used an Irish contractor (with

Irish workers) in the making of ‘the greatest golf course in the world’.

Sickening? No, just sobering, when contrasted to the high rhetoric with which Mr. Salmond shuts up objectors

and questioners at First Minister’s Questions in Holyrood, accusing them of orchestrating a ‘campaign of fear’

and to be ‘unionists’… Is this really the tone and level of debate upon which people should base such a

historic decision, which will affect not only Scotland but the rest of the Kingdom?

I rest my case…

I can’t help but agree with you. You make a good case on the socio-economic front. To often we forget that economics is not all.

I do think though as Scots you must look at this point beyond the union that has bound you to the UK for over 500 years. In the 21st century I personally don’t believe in colonies existing. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland some how are embodiment of a once brutal empire. Something I would love to see end.

Secondly, it affects modern identity (this was a feature my sociology paper a few years ago) that I think is important. The idea that British is distinct from English deny all born in England an opportunity of a true identity. This has had other sociological consequences like people of any other descent other than strict anecdotal anglo saxon lineage claim English (despite 80% of Britons being Celts and only 20% of with any anglo saxon lineage). This confusion is rooted in a combination of modern migration and the existence of the British empire all be it in a weak form. This problem is unique in the UK alone not even in Germany.

That said. I understand the economic fall out in both nations and it echoes that of the coal mines in the UK that saw whole towns destroyed. In the end everyone prefers this UK. I can’t say I am a socialist or conservative rather I sit between the two.

On the other hand it is not my decision to make of course most people in the UK will want to see the union maintained but what master would want to see their servant leave. In Scotland no one like change so they would rather not fix it if it isn’t broken. Either way I am sure the sun will rise on a new day whatever is decided.

In the end this devolution has just started, even with a no vote, the seeds have been sown.

Looks like the flow of capital wins. Bonds eventually affecting the fate of the USD today. Sometimes these relational moves can really give you a different perspective.

What a great post, Emeraldorc, truly,

I just wish that the debate had followed the Quebec independence referendum, where there were several stages of decision, rather than a blunt ‘yes/no’…

It all feels like a desperate move by the SNP to regain popularity…

I also do not believe in fairy tales, and while optimism is good, and a certain degree of risk is necessary

for any new venture to be undertaken, I do not agree that the SNP have a sound monetary plan:

Bank of Scotland money reserves, upon leaving the union, would be insufficient to monetise its own

currency… There are basic questions like these left unanswered… It would be like asking you: do you

want to keep yourself from starvation and be happy for ever more? Then make a decision tomorrow:

Buy or Sell the dollar… I mean… Life does not work like that… It would have been better to have a first

round of referendum voting over which model of independence the people would have preferred: for

example, the Scottish Labour party could have devised an alternative model (e.g. not independence

but a revised devolution), and then the Scottish Conservative Party and the SNP could have done the

same… The winning ‘design’ could then have gone to a second round of voting, following a period of

Q&A from the public, the media, and the Parliamentary Committee for independence both in Holyrood

and in Westminster…

But, as you say, whatever the results of this vote, the seeds of change have already been sown:

since the Act of Union, now over three hundred years old, there has been a great flow of people

up and down the former Roman barriers (Hadrian’s Wall and the Antonine Wall)… Unfortunately,

independence will feel very overrated because, in truth, nobody wants to or can afford to cut this

flow… Many parts of Scotland have been populated by incomers from England (not to mention overseas)

and, conversely, a lot of Scots have not had much of a choice but to populate parts of England, in a search

for better opportunities… In the end, neither the SNP nor any independence can stop Scots continuing to

leave this small part of the Kingdom in search of better opportunities: this has been a great problem for

the Scottish Highlands and Islands, and this is exactly why Gaelic has been dying out… Many islanders in

the Hebrides, for example, had no secondary school to go to and had to go to the mainland to continue

their education, and, in doing so, had to renounce speaking their language; equally, those who did not

face losing a language, may have found that the ‘high road to London’ was the only way out of poverty…

The inner city areas of ‘Auld Reekie’ (=Edinburgh) have received worldwide attention thanks to that

film that shot Ewan McGregor to fame: Trainspotting. Indeed, there is and there has been much deprivation

in Scotland, and it is not at the stroke of a pen, or through independence from ‘England’, that it will be

magically resolved…

When I worked at a grain factory at the Edinburgh docks, back in my undergraduate days, it was a time

of great debate, as the late Donald Dewar was pushing for devolution… which was a Labour conquest,

let it be known, not an SNP one… My fellow workers, who were not Italian migrants like me but local

through and through, had views about this, saying that it was not needed and that it would cost a great

deal: indeed, building the Scottish Parliament was a massive and spiralling bill which the public had to pay;

outside, the Edinburgh City Tram project ground to a halt, delayed by years of disputes and delays…

Indeed, I would love for someone to have an assessment of ‘What devolution has done for the Scots’ in the

last fifteen years, and, based on that, deciding if ‘Devo Max’ (i.e. independence) really would be worth the

cost… Instead, we must all vote on promises and hope…

Whatever happens, if people will not like the new Scotland, there will be many trains and many roads

leading out of it. Let us hope that it will not come to this, for many people will not even have the luxury

of choice.

:slight_smile:

1/8 against independence and 5/1 for independence @ paddy power. The result is already out.

When you do put it like that I see the dilemma.

This problem is partly built on the union with Scots never even finding their voice in the international stage. In the US many people didn’t know Scotland was even a country. Thanks like you said to Trainspotting.

This problem is echoed on a larger scale in the Third world former colonies, that were thrown into abject poverty immediately after independence for the reasons you have outlined above. Currency? Resource management, etc… It was just the idea of freedom. Somehow those countries are still part of the crown as everyone runs to England for work, simply because all the resources are back with the crown.

This an extreme situation but justifies the average fear of the Scots. You rightly say that it should have been done in stages to show that the SNP really knows what it is doing but on the other side the conservatives have been quick to make this argument one of economics even though the Government can barely save the mainland from a train wreck which is sure to come. This has caused the SNP to take the national ground as surely they can’t run on Economics.

In my opinion Scotland has to decide whether they are prepared to bear the socio-economic burden of complete devolution or they want to continue to endure economic tyranny from the mainland that drives people out of their lovely homes to mainland in seek of opportunities and reduced to immigrants in their own land (maybe a little exaggerated).

I doubt this will be the experience in Scotland after all two millenniums of sharing borders with England would have taught if anything how to manage a nation and no break up not even in the communist block has resulted in total melt down. Latvia and Czech have all proved that devolution can work.

Nothing comes without a price. Freedom should be worth any price. In time all is forgotten but some Nostalgia always remains.

Oh my God,

it is true:

Independence Referendum Result - Scottish Politics Betting Odds - Paddy Power

:stuck_out_tongue:

Indeed!

I wonder what sort of ‘spread’ would be paid in

going LONG Scotland and SHORT the United Kingdom

:34:

There is one for the Professor ;))

Seriously, your post is bang on, Emeraldorc… No country is perfect, and based on

the socio-economic argument alone, nobody would vote for this (rather expensive)

experiment… However, as you say, you cannot put a price on an ideal…

Someone on a debating panel recently said:

[I][B]You do not have to be nationalistic to be patriotic.[/B][/I]

… Food for thought!

Haha! Well said…

SSI also supports your thoughts on further gains in the S&P 500 as retail traders have resumed shorting the index.

That looks great to me, PMH

I’ve only been to Scotland once: Glasgow for a Stone Temple Pilots concert but I miss the grey days in London. Speaking of which: Arsenal’s first match of the season this Saturday! COYG :smiley:

Great post, Jason!

I hope you enjoyed Glasgow! Went there for the fifth time in two years at the end of July for the

Commonwealth Games and it was a fantastically friendly atmosphere…

I’ve only been to Scotland once: Glasgow for a Stone Temple Pilots concert but I miss the grey days in London. Speaking of which: Arsenal’s first match of the season this Saturday! COYG :smiley:

I am a Tottenham supporter. Can’t believe you beat City…

My trading colleagues,

I now have the results for the ‘zoomed in’ levels analysis…

Given that GBP/USD is loitering under 1.6700,

I looked downward to 1.6600 and analysed the range between there and 1.6699,

using 25-pips increments, thus dividing the range in four quarters;

the analysis, ranging from May 1993 (the beginning of my chart data) to today (15th Aug. 2014),

showed that for this range, the area with the highest number of activity (given by the total number

of Opens, Closes, Highs and Lows falling within its bounds) was

1.6675 - 1.6699.

The breakdown of the four quarters is as follows:

1.6675 - 1.6699: 37 Opens, 30 Highs, 37 Lows, 35 Closes; TOTAL: 139 occurrences;
1.6650 - 1.6674: 28 Opens, 29 Highs, 22 Lows, 31 Closes; TOTAL: 110 occurrences;
1.6625 - 1.6649: 23 Opens, 34 Highs, 38 Lows, 25 Closes; TOTAL: 120 occurrences;
1.6600 - 1.6624: 32 Opens, 32 Highs, 37 Lows, 31 Closes; TOTAL: 132 occurrences.

It would be interesting if we saw this having a significance over the short term, although,
given the range of the date (over twenty-one years), it may be more significant over longer
periods, maybe as a function of market cycles… However, the fact that the highest 'activity’
was registered in the 25 pips below 1.6700 may mean that there has been, historically,
stronger support OR resistance around this level, than, say, the 1.6600 one…

This COULD mean that if the Pound, for example, had no relief from next week’s inflation (CPI, etc.) data,
it could find no strength to push past this level, and it could open the doors to the path of least
resistance (i.e. descending towards 1.6600).

Take it or leave it!

Happy trading.

That’s right Pip Sterling has no relief at all. It was a total dump and the start IMO of a larger downtrend. Take a look at GBP/JPY, it has fallen out of Kilter with the GBP/USD and has already started a full retrace but with hardly any momentum suggesting that the following reversal will be severe as bulls are not confident enough to correct the previous down move. This will create panic selling and liquidating by weak longs.

FxPro GBPJPY h4 tK0wn | cTrader

Come Monday I will be looking to heavily sell sterling keeping my stop above 172.78. GBP/JPY may be a good pair because USD IMO will show some weakness against other pairs. That being said USD is due for rebound so this basket is being carefully managed. Take a look at AUD/USD

FxPro AUDUSD h4 8K0wn | cTrader

Just completed I believe a correctional move (just shy of predicted target 0.9337) which should see the USD rebound come next week. This is reflected on the USD/NOK that seems to be also completing a 1st wave or a correction move.

FxPro USDNOK h4 kK0wn | cTrader

See how these are both commodity linked currencies. This also tells me commodities may not have such a good week coming. So maybe time to look at temporary return of USD strength.



Look at the selling coming in on Gold. Market definitely not comfortable with higher gold prices. Also took a look at Oil look at that drop despite the Ukraine woes. Looks lie Oil could be at the tail end of a 3rd wave move can’t say for sure but looks like all this selling at the end of the week must mean something.

Have a great weekend guys. Despite all the Euro touting, the price just keeps rising 1.3300 is still the buffer zone… Holding my Long position still. You have to love this pair… So full of Bull####

Haven’t heard GP’s take in a while… Got tt get his opinion on volume.

This weeks trades

FxPro USDNOK h4 PM0wn | cTrader

FxPro GBPUSD h4 xM0wn | cTrader

FxPro GBPNOK h4 ZM0wn | cTrader

FxPro AUDUSD h4 7M0wn | cTrader

FxPro EURUSD h4 QM0wn | cTrader

Equities drop across the board as news hits the wires: Ukraine has ‘destroyed’ part of Russia’s aid(?) convoy…

Here is an example: FTSE 100 on a five-minute chart…