Got out of my Aussie at +180 pips. Looking at EUR/USD and GBP/USD both in a congestion with obscene volume. Blood on the streets time!!!
[QUOTE=PipMeHappy;654561]Agreed!
Splendid news for your Aussie short!! Do you trail stops or move them manually?
I move stops manually. Tighten as I go or tighten on major pull backs that are clearly moving against me or close out all together. Need to see momentum to stay in a trade.
The FTSE100 has broken the 6,775 level after much indecision and, since touching the historic high of 6,900 at the start of September, has now dropped nearly 150 pipsā¦
hey emeraldorc, i dont see much rally in the EUR/USD nor the GBP/USD. there doesnāt seem to be any plausible direction for any substantial shift in the range which iām seeing on my charts. how then do you determine when you enter into you trade? iām banking on the idea that there is uncertainty in the markets as we await the outcome on the Scottish referendum then, the pound will certainly shoot up. it has been weakening ever so clearly against the other currencies and a āNOā vote will change the dynamics of the markets.
A very timely question Maxi. Got stopped out -32 pips on my GBP/USD entry today on what look like a break out of congestion to complete the down cycle.
FxPro GBPUSD h4 BuPwn | cTrader
FxPro GBPUSD h1 b1Pwn | cTrader
Take a look at the move in the 1H close up. See the volume associated with the Up bar. Very Low. Check the tails afterwards, clearly a markup to hunt stops above the 200EMA. That move was 52 pips and 95 end to end. So I expect more volatility before finally moving.
However if I had taken the time to read the volume going in I would have noticed that a solid up move by backed by reasonable volume had started and the idea was long if you an intraday trader.
That said because I was expecting a break lower to 1.5850 area I wasnāt concerned until price started making an unnatural move upwards on the tiniest of volumes by then I realized this is a trap and sooner or later both longs and shorts will be in trouble.
To answer your question on a swing trade I am looking for a channel break at a cycle top or bottom sacrificing any intraday analysis for the big picture.
If I was intraday trading I am looking for a move either at the start of the London session backed by volume or further volume strength in the New York session market direction. My tip is look for what volume does at certain prices, especially moves that are not supported by volume, likely traps.
Thanks Emeraldā¦
Strange day for the marketsā¦ Not much happenedā¦
My EUR/NZD long (second attempt) got stopped out at -82 pips and my NZD/USD short got stopped out
at +160 (where it was sitting at +250 late last week)ā¦ I closed out my short EUR/USD yesterday because
there was not much going onā¦ So, I only have one trade left open on one account, and three on the other
(all of them in the red)ā¦
The Euro has not moved much against the US Dollar or the British Poundā¦ It was doing very well against
the Kiwi Dollar but it collapsed a little todayā¦ The NZD is getting strength (God knows where from) suddenly
and so it has risen against the US Dollar, the Euro, and even the Aussie Dollar - my AUD/NZD long is
indeed struggling, and that is not only due to Aussie weakness.
A confusing day but I still made some money, so who am I to complain 
Tomorrow starts getting interestingā¦ There will be, as you say, āblood on the streetsā, as huge capital
chunks will be moved around, and we, the retail crowd, will be chasing for crumbs ā¦
I got my spoon ready to collect x x
Hey Pipme, I have been pouring over charts today to find market direction. Volume is all over the place so I did some cross pair analysis with keen attention to GBP/JPY, it is known the Japanese all go in one direction so they are no contrarians.
There is strong volume up today but now the market maker is racing to 175.40 to quickly for comfort. Surely Scottish independence will not send Sterling back to 1.7000. So I am thinking what is the market expecting tomorrow? Right now Sterling is heavily manipulated long that when actual buying starts it might not be under control.
On the flip side GBP/USD is looking like a retrace for that final move lower to 1.5850 like I was calling but it really depends and the volume coming in that pair is indicating that sellers are in charge but buyers are fixing but I want to see 1.6350 before going long. I still have a short bias. Nuts I know!!
In any case I have decided not to trade the biggest move of 2014. It seems everyone is expecting a Yes Vote. The USD seems to be really strong but the S&P 500 just loaded some serious buying volume to potential break a new high. So a lot in Sterlings favour. I think I will get in after action it is likely if we are wrong stops would not be triggered, the slippage will be immense.
Good Luck folks! I am keeping my equity till after that madness. On the bright side I am looking to Buy AUD/NZD big volume at the 200 and price stayed up and even got above the 200. So my guess is buying so going with it plus it is at what I think is a minor cycle correction.
+1 without audnzd. As far as gpbusd, I agree so I guess weāre both nuts. Good Luck everyone
Gp
Hello Emerald and GP!
I agree with your excellent analysis, Emeraldā¦
I re-entered long on EUR/NZD, after two attempts ended in stops at +3 and -82; this time, it is looking good, already at +90ā¦ (see photo).
I am only in a GBP trade via EUR/GBP long, which
has been struggling up and down around breakeven for weeks, on and offā¦
Speaking of lack of direction, I hope that the FOMC rate decision and Yellenās press conference tonight will correct that, as next month should be the end of QEā¦ Perhaps we will see big movesā¦ Also, the New Zealand 2Q G.D.P. will be announced tonight, so the NZD is definitely a currency with potential, especially to the downside if Yellenās speech has hawkish tones and the US Dollar rallies, pushing NZD/USD to further lows; this could have stronger leverage than an āas forecastā New Zealand G.D.P., I gatherā¦
Good luck to us all!!
Just got an email from one of my not so used brokers reduce leverage on all GBP pairs to 1:50 to ensure clients have enough margin. The volatilty will be nuts. As an ECN trader with some of the best fills that is a que to either stay out or risk loosing equity my bet is the market maker will shake off anyone long or short within a 100 pips before going the right way and thatās just to gain liquidity.
There will be plenty time to trade over several graves and mansions tomorrow that would have been dug or built.
[B]Watch the Fed Chair Yellenās press conference in twenty minutes, live on:
PS: FED announces its QE taper quota of $10B, as expectedā¦
My [B]EUR/NZD long [/B]fluctuated down 70 pips and now is up toward the +110 mark, at 1.5923ā¦ This cross is more sensitive to the NZD/USD downturn than that of EUR/USD, it seems.
[B]EUR/USD and GPB/USD[/B] also have long red candles on the 5m chart immediately after the Fedās taper quota announcement, but then seem to loiter back upā¦
[B]AUD/NZD[/B] floating upwards as NZD/USD gets a 50-pip shove downwardā¦
All eyes on the press conferenceā¦
Good luck!
I am waiting for after action analysis. Could never understand those mystics called central bankers.
Morning , traders!
Update on Eur/Nzd:
after a high of +110 pips
yesterday evening , it closed now
(Stopped) at +20ā¦
Will try again if conditions are right.
Nice Pipā¦ The market is really undecided. GBP/JPY made a big move. It was my litmus test. Buying still coming in so could even extend to 181.00 area.
I closed out my AUD/USD short that went down in the London session but then was struggling during New York. So best to close out and wait for that break lower. AUD/NZD short is holding so sticking with it +30 so pips. Canāt wait for AM tomorrow to get back with Sterling tradingā¦
I was watching the series Outlander. Salmond missed a trick, air this in Scotland, it would surely be a Yes vote all way. Great series by the way. If you like the odd romance with intrigue stuff. I recommend it.
Hello Emerald, and my compliments on your trading plan!
I am waiting for the results coming in for the Scotland referendum in an hourā¦
Meanwhile, I am watching a new BBC series on i-Player, called āTraders: millions by the minuteā, which focuses on many tradersā¦
Thank you. I was reading your post and said to my wife youāre lucky I donāt get the BBC, I would have been watching the referendum. She said if you want to watch it, watch it Iām going out anyway, to wit I said we donāt get the bbc, so she looked at my daughter, they both looked at me and said of course we get the bbc itās on our satellite. I checked and what do you know they were right. So I just closed my last short eurgpb now to the tv. I think itās going to be close, but I think the noās will get it. All day non stop scare coming from the no side.
Anyway thanks again.
Gp
Whatās the point of watching BBC if I have you guys 
just let me know whatās going onā¦ Itās all good
Donāt you want to hear those sexy Scottish journos rolling their Rs?
;p