A sure thing.? GBP/USD Analysis

I am now 9 months into my Trading studies and Now have been Truly born in the Trading World
The First pair i started with was the GBP/USD; from the start this pair has been somewhat of a nightmare to trade compared to some others, Maybe Political issues or My Analysis was Wrong.

But i am From the UK and like this pair as it is 1 of the Majors and also my Base currency.

Here are some Screen shots From This March and i see in my 2nd Rectangle it looks like it may mirror the first rectangle.

Does Anyone have any thoughts…???

I also have a Number i calculated from a Low of 1.11234 which is (1.51572) which maybe a Top.?

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“Surely” it’s Coming Down…:alien:

It’s not easy for any of us to respond to your trade here @A1lenTrader. I can see your logic, but I am in the opposite trade, because my system operates different parameters, but I really don’t want to discourage you from your trade, because oft-times when we “Don’t take a trade” - it turns out to be the right trade we would have won with !

You may be right, I may be right, we may both get stopped out - who knows ?

Have you ever noticed on TV “Quiz shows” - an answer just “Pops into your mind” - then when you think about it - you change your answer - invariably to find out your first answer was right, even though there was no reason for it ?

That has happened to me so often that nowadays I refuse to change my first “Guess” - The subconscious mind is incredibly powerful !

The problem we have is that when we seek confirmation from others, sometimes we are presenting a point of view different from theirs - and at the end of the day - only time will tell ! There is no real point in us getting into a disagreement about something which is already "in the stars ".

This game is by it’s very nature a lonely place where we have to make our own decisions. There is room for both of us to make money, given good money management, Unfortunately one of us must lose on this trade - but hey - that’s the game ! I wish you well (but not on this one - lol )

As an amateur i was merely asking for an opinion not confirmation but i guess all the real experts wouldn’t want to give to much away hey… sit on the fence
Anyway i am Looking Bearish at the moment this week so far anyway until confirmed otherwise like my Stop being Hit.!! Still looking at 1.51570 Area tho if it turns lol

There are no experts, just lots of opinions.

Gbp/Usd is very interesting atm.

Moves over this last while are more USD driven - lows made in Jan 2017 on Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd and the Trump factor.

Likewise same factor on the S&P.

Is there a link then between Gbp/Usd and Trump policies?

It’s about risk - investors look to the future - current ‘value’ is often sidelined - e.g. recent movement on AMZN

The embers on a trade war US vs China, Canada, Mexico and others are being stoked - how will investors react in the short term on FX?

Btw - should add that GBP is carrying it’s own risk right now - named Brexit.

Have a look at how the market responds to the ebb and flow of good news and bad news on that front by checking out the daily Eur/Gbp

@peterma Thanks for your thoughts and very helpful informative answer.

Ever since i started i have never paid much attention to the news events ,

I have tried to find a technical approach that would work well no matter what the circumstances and get me out of trades when needed,

I think i have learnt all the technical stuff i need to know now and maybe should be looking to trade News as well Trouble is Keeping up with the news takes more time that i don’t have at the moment.

p.s @Falstaff woke up to find my stop hit… just put a short term sell on though well 45 mins ago see how that does before looking at the buy side.

Yeah, my long is just about b/e now and if you look from a London Open perspective - liable to be a down day ? - but in any case it’s messing about in the 1.4000 s.

We’ll see. :sunglasses:

A1lenTrader, you seem to have a view that the way to trade is -

find a long-term uptrend
look for a reversal on a shorter time-frame chart
short it

I’m probably going to be the only person here who will say this is totally wrong, stop doing it. I would (predictably) recommend -

find a long-term uptrend
look for a pull-back on the same time-frame
buy as the pull-back fails

Did you get that move ? - My mate rang earlier to say he was short, then he got 50 pips out of that move and 30 on the retracement. :sunglasses:

Would have bet the retracement myself, but I’m already long a double bet and didn’t want to increase exposure

@tommor I am not sure why you think you know how i trade but you don’t ok

You think I trade wrong fine your opinion but like I said earlier I trade short term medium and long which has done just fine for me so far. So ill stick to my trading style for now thanks.

While your waiting for retraces I’m already in and out m8 so good luck with that.

Yeah 50 pips off the sell I got 30 of the move after
But have no trades on at the moment.
80 pips today 0.20 lots x 80 pips = a quiet day for me been busy with kids.

You’ll have to take my word for it that I do know how to trade.

Whether you can trade or not is a question which you yourself opened up on this thread, so no need to get shirty with me. And to be honest its a good question which you should ask yourself, as you have said -

  • you are very new to trading
  • you have been having a nightmare experience trading GBP/USD
  • you don’t know if your own analysis on this pair has been right or wrong
  • you were short this pair and your stop got hit, at which point you doubled down by adding a new sell order
  • and you felt you needed to ask for help from other members.

Maybe you don’t just need help trading, you need help in getting help. Because as soon as you got a view different to your own you suddenly got all defensive, insist you are trading fine after all and that you know I can’t trade.

Fine by me. Believe what you like.

i asked for thoughts on whether the price would do something similar in the rectangle thats all ?

Then you assume i was trading wrong for whatever reason and asking for help.?

Where in this post did i ask for help ? Please @tommor I don’t Need or want your help Save it for somebody else hey m8…

I think your a bit muddle up mate you never gave a view on what i was asking an i never said You Know i Cant Trade …???

Please take a breath an think before you sound like an armature

@A1lenTrader
@tommor

I can feel the passion guys. But before things get too personal, it would be great if we could all take time to breathe and get our thoughts sorted out.

We believe that opposing views cultivate productive discussions on our forums and we encourage it just as long as the discussions are done in a calm and collected manner. We hope you keep that in mind.

Thank you!

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Yep, the market is a passionate place, always has been, always will.

Older guys usually step back, younger guys often are on the edge.

That edge can make or break - if they are willing to learn from the older then they give themselves a possible edge, if they know the answer before the question then they have lost an edge.

Nine months is a short time in the grand scheme of learning an art.

2 Likes

I Agree, And think if your hungry enough to learn because you want to not because you have to then your certainly on a better path.

ps I turned over to watch the 3 finance news channels available in tivo for the first time the other day bloomberg an 2 others
and on 1 of them cant remember which1 , They were counting down to new york Open and it was like some big hoo haa like the sun god had arrived or something .?

cant remember if it was start of week or do they do it every day.?..:alien:

Lol They used to do that “Countdown thing” on Bloomberg 18 years or so ago. Then all the “Adrenaline music” constantly acting on your nervous system. The Smiling faces when “It” was going “UP” and intense sad frowns when “It” was going down !

As though it was Somehow “Real” and “Mattered” - lol

Yeah thats what i witnessed
They really go for it ,
So is this A daily Occurrence or just start of week…?

If im going to trade news Would the USA session be the best to look at

OK - @A1lenTrader I’ll try

I seem to remember it every day - but it was a long time ago and at that time I was trading DOW, which was not the 24/5 we see on Forex.

I’m in UK, so could only trade Dow when US was “Open” - I think about 3pm to 9 pm GMT - Although “Summer time” complicated it !

That was good because it used to take me around 2-3 hours in the morning to do all my “checks” - MAs, Pivots, resistances, supports, VIX, Open Fed loans for the day (Can’t rememer what they were called), Taylor trading day positions, expected News, Options expiry etc etc etc. and fill in my daily spread sheet where I decided on my positional bias for the day. I had a woman come in 5 hours a day, to do my filing and keep my bank statements reconciled, print off daily and weekly charts and file them, She wrote out the cheques for my bills etc for me to sign and then she posted them on her way home.

I used to “do news”, but by the time it gets Public, - it is over !

I don’t try to outguess “News” nowadays and don’t even bother about it that much any more, - If it shoots against me I’ll wait for it to come back (or sometimes “Double up”). If it shoots in my favour, I may close out, bet the reversal and re-enter when (IF) it gets back to it’s origin or else just sit there and see what happens.

HOwever - I am no expert and I am simply stating my attitude. This is NOT “Expert Trading Advice” !