AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1305
Although yesterday’s retreat from 1.1321 to 1.1298 in lackluster Monday’s session suggests further sideways swings below Fri’s 2-week high at 1.1325 would continue, as long as 1.1280/90 holds, recent erratic rise from 1.1184 would head to 1.1375, loss of upward momentum should cap price below minor res at 1.1392.
Below 1.1280 signals aforesaid rise has made a temporary top, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1250 and later 1.1230.
ON the eco. data, Germany will kick off with ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions for April, then we have EU’s constriction output and ZEW eco. sentiment index. ECB’s Nowotny will speak in New York at an event at 13:50GMT.
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AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1282
Euro’s intra-day brief breach of Tuesday’s 1.1280 low (Europe) suggests recent upmove from 1.1184 has made a temporary top at Fri’s 2-week high at 1.1325, however, firm break below 1.1270 needed to bring stronger retracement of said move to 1.1250, then later 1.1230, however, reckon 1.1200/10 should remain intact this week.
Above 1.1314 would signal pullback has ended, then price would head to 1.1365/75 before correction occurs due to loss of upward momentum.
On the data front, Italy will kick off with Mar CPI, then EU’s current account, Italy’s trade balance n followed by EU’s trade balance n HICP.
AceTraderFx Apr 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1292
Despite yesterday’s intra-day rebound from 1.1279 (Australia) to session highs of 1.1324 in European morning, failure to penetrate last Friday’s 2-week peak at 1.1325 has led to profit taking in New York and 1.1275/79 needs to hold for recent upmove from Aprl’s 1.1184 bottom to head to 1.1375, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1400 this week.
A daily close below 1.1279 signals said rise has made a temporary top, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1230, however, reckon 1.1200/10 should remain intact.
Today is PMI day in the EZ, Germany will kick off with PPI, France will release Markit mfg and servcies PMIs, then the same from Germany and the the EU, Italy will later finish off with industrial order and industrial sales.
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1252
Although euro’s selloff last Thursday due to downside German and EZ PMI data to a 1-week low of 1.1227 suggests early correction from April’s 1.1184 bottom has ended at 1.1325, subsequent sideways swings in holiday-thinned Easter Friday and Monday sessions signals range trading would continue until European markets re-open from Easter break.
As 1.1263 (New York high Monday) has capped recovery, bearishness is retained but only below 1.1184 needed to bring re-test of 2019 20-month trough at 1.1177 (Mar).
Only above 1.1279/80 (previous sup, now res) would ‘prolong’ choppy consolidation and may risk another rise to 1.1300/10.
Although all major European centre will re-open today after the long Easter holiday break, eco. calendar in the EZ is very thin with EU consumer confidence for Apr being the only data which is due out pretty later in the day at 14:00GMT, so funds flow may have a greater impact on intra-day price swings.
AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1217
Despite yesterday’s expected resumption of recent decline from Apr’s 1.1325 to a near 3-week low of 1.1192 due to renewed usd’s strength in New York morning, failure to re-test Apr’s 1.1184 trough and subsequent rebound to 1.1231 (Australia) suggests initial choppy range trading is in store.
Above 1.1231/36 may risk stronger retracement to 1.1262/63 but 1.3104 should cap upside whilst below 1.1192 would yield re-test of 2019 bottom at 1.1177, break would head to 1.1125/30.
On the eco. data front, France will kick off with business climate, then pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, current conditions n expectations, then lastly, Italy’s trade balance.
AceTraderFx Apr 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1148
Yesterday’s break of previous 2019 low at 1.1177 (March) to a 22-month trough of 1.1141 after 7 weeks of broad sideways swings suggests medium-term downtrend has finally resumed and price is en route towards next projected downside target at 1.1054 next week.
Today, reckon 1.1200/10 would hold and yield weakness to 1.1100/10 before prospect of a minor correction later.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia market holiday, New Zealand market holiday, Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision, UK CBI trends survey, U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, initial jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1132
Although euro’s recovery in New York session after hitting a fresh 22-month trough at 1.1118 to 1.1154 on short covering suggests initial range trading is in store ahead of release of key U.S. GDP data, as long as 1.1177 (previous 2019 low, now res) holds, medium-term downtrend should head to 1.1085/90 after consolidation, ‘loss of downward momentum’ is expected to keep price above projected sup at 1.1054.
Only a daily close above 1.1177 confirms temporary low has been made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.12320/30 before prospect of retreat.
Bo euro area eco. data is due out today, however, ECB Governing Council member will deliver a speech at Finnish central bank seminar in Helsinki at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1149
Although Friday’s rebound from a fresh 22-month trough at 1.1112 to 1.1174 in New York on short-covering after robust U.S. GDP but soft inflation data suggests recent downtrend has made a minor low and consolidation is in store initially, as long as 1.1174/77 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1112 would extend marginal weakness, loss of momentum should limit weakness to 1.1080/90.
Only a daily close above 1.0177 (previous 2019 low in March) signals temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1220/30 later this week.
Data to be released later today:
Japan market holiday, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, and U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Friday’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112 to a 12-day high at 1.1265 after Fed’s unchanged rate decision, intra-day selloff to 1.0189 due to usd’s broad-based rally following Fed J. Powell’s less dovish comments signals 1st leg of correction is over and choppy consolidation with downside bias is seen ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
As long as 1.1230 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1141/46 is likely before rebound.
Only a daily close above 1.1230 risks re-test of 1.1265 but loss of momentum should cap euro well below 1.1300.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales, Italy’s Markit mfg PMI, then the same data from France, Germany and the EU. French and German FinMins will address a press conference in Paris at 09:30GMT, then later ECB board member Jens Weidmann and ECB executive board member and chief economist Peter Praet will speak at 17:30GMT.
AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 05:20 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1177
Euro’s decline from post-FOMC high at 1.1265 (Wed) to 1.1171 yesterday suggests early correction from last Friday’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1141/46 sup, break there would yield re-test of 1.1112 (upbeat U.S. NFP perhaps), then towards 1.1054 later next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1230 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and risks gain towards 1.1265 (U.S. NFP miss ?), break would head to 1.1300/05.
Ahead of U.S. jobs data, the EU will release s slew of inflation data (see EI section for details). Also we have ECB Governing Council member and Buba chief Jens Weidmann speaking at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1192
Despite Friday’s brief drop to 1.1135 after release of robust U.S. NFP, intra-day rally to 1.1206 due to broad-based usd’s weakness as market focused on soft U.S. wage growth suggests choppy trading above April’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112 would continue with upside bias.
Above 1.1206 would encourage for gain towards 1.1230, however, reckon res at 1.1265 should hold and only below 1.1135 risks re-test of 1.1112.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries. Italy will kick off with Markit services PMI, then followed by the same from France, Germany n EU. The EU will also release Sentix investor confidence index and retail sales. ECB board member Lautenschager will speak at an ECB conference in FFT at 07:30GMT and ECB Chief Economist will have a converstion/interview with Financial Times in FFT at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Mon’s initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri’s post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1195
Although euro’s rally from 1.1135 (Fri) to as high as 1.1218 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) would continue, subsequent retreat to 1.1167 in New York would bring broad sideways swings before prospect of another rise, reckon 1.1265 (last week’s high) should cap upside.
On the downside, only below 1.1135 would risk re-test of said key 1.1212 sup, then later towards 1.1054 next week.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB’s Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB’s monetary policy right.
AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1194
Although euro’s daily sideways swings following early rally from 1.1135 (Friday) to 1.1218 (Tuesday) are likely to would continue, as long as sup area at 1.1161/67 holds, upside bias remains for aforesaid rise to yield marginal gain, reckon res at 1.1265 (Last week’s high) should cap subsequent rise and yield decline.
A daily close below 1.1161 signals rebound is over, then risk would shift to the downside for re-test of 1.1135.
No eco. data is due out from euro area countries but we have ECB Board member Nowotny n Lane speaking at a conference in Vienna at 07:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2019 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Monday’s initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri’s post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (April) should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1235
Euro’s retreat in New York session on Mon after re-test previous May’s 1.1265 high (Reuters) suggests recent erratic upmove has possibly make a top there and consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1204/08 would add credence to this view and bring stronger retracement to 1.1167/70.
Only above 1.1265 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1300/04.
The euro area will release a slew of eco. data during European morning, please refer to our Economic Indicator section for details.
AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1204
Yesterday’s anticipated fall from 1.1246 (Reuters) to 1.1201 near New York close confirms recent erratic rise from May’s 1.1135 low has made a top at 1.1265 (Reuters) on Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, however, reckon 1.1135 should continue to hold and bring choppy sideways swings.
Only above 1.1265 risks stronger correction of Medium Term downtrend to 1.1290/00 later this week.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details). ECB’s Lane will give a speech in Tallinn at 08:00GMT. German ECONMIN Altmaier will speak at 12:30GMT, then ECB’s Coeure will speak in Paris at 14:15GMT and later ECB’s Chief Economist Praet will speak in Belgium at 16:30GMT.
AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro’s resumption of decline from this week’s 1.1265 high (Monday) to 1.1178 on Italy’s budget deficit concerns, intra-day jump to 1.1225 after news Trump may delay auto-tariffs suggests choppy trading inside recent 1.1135-1.1265 broad range would continue with upside bias.
Only below 1.1178 risks marginal weakness but loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 1.1135 and bring another rebound later.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Italy CPI, trade balance, EU trade balance, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, and Canada manufacturing sales ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1177
Despite euro’s resumption of decline from this week’s 1.1265 (Monday) high to 1.1168 yesterday due to usd’s strength in New York after upbeat U.S. data and rebound in U.S. yields, as price is expected to remain confined inside recent 1.1265-1.1135 range, reckon lower level would hold and yield rebound later today or Monday.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1200 would be the 1st signal low is made and price would head back to 1.1225, then 1.1244/46.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, PPI inputs, PPI outputs, EU construction output, HICP, and U.S. leading indicator, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1166
Euro’s resumption of decline from last week’s 1.1265 high (Mon) to an 11-day trough of 1.1155 on Friday due to usd’s strength after upbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests downside bias remains, however, as price is likely to remain confined inside recent broad range of 1.1265-1.1135, only below lower level would yield re-test of April’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112.
On the upside, above 1.1200 would add credence to consolidative outlook and would head back to 1.1225, then later 1.1241/46.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with PPI, then the EU will release current account. ECB’s Chief Economist will speak at an event in London at 08:00GMT n Germany’s ECONMIN Altmaier will speak at an economic forum in Brandenburg at 11:30GMT.