AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 05:20 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1177
Euro’s decline from post-FOMC high at 1.1265 (Wed) to 1.1171 yesterday suggests early correction from last Friday’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1141/46 sup, break there would yield re-test of 1.1112 (upbeat U.S. NFP perhaps), then towards 1.1054 later next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1230 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and risks gain towards 1.1265 (U.S. NFP miss ?), break would head to 1.1300/05.
Ahead of U.S. jobs data, the EU will release s slew of inflation data (see EI section for details). Also we have ECB Governing Council member and Buba chief Jens Weidmann speaking at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1192
Despite Friday’s brief drop to 1.1135 after release of robust U.S. NFP, intra-day rally to 1.1206 due to broad-based usd’s weakness as market focused on soft U.S. wage growth suggests choppy trading above April’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112 would continue with upside bias.
Above 1.1206 would encourage for gain towards 1.1230, however, reckon res at 1.1265 should hold and only below 1.1135 risks re-test of 1.1112.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries. Italy will kick off with Markit services PMI, then followed by the same from France, Germany n EU. The EU will also release Sentix investor confidence index and retail sales. ECB board member Lautenschager will speak at an ECB conference in FFT at 07:30GMT and ECB Chief Economist will have a converstion/interview with Financial Times in FFT at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Mon’s initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri’s post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1195
Although euro’s rally from 1.1135 (Fri) to as high as 1.1218 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) would continue, subsequent retreat to 1.1167 in New York would bring broad sideways swings before prospect of another rise, reckon 1.1265 (last week’s high) should cap upside.
On the downside, only below 1.1135 would risk re-test of said key 1.1212 sup, then later towards 1.1054 next week.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB’s Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB’s monetary policy right.
AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1194
Although euro’s daily sideways swings following early rally from 1.1135 (Friday) to 1.1218 (Tuesday) are likely to would continue, as long as sup area at 1.1161/67 holds, upside bias remains for aforesaid rise to yield marginal gain, reckon res at 1.1265 (Last week’s high) should cap subsequent rise and yield decline.
A daily close below 1.1161 signals rebound is over, then risk would shift to the downside for re-test of 1.1135.
No eco. data is due out from euro area countries but we have ECB Board member Nowotny n Lane speaking at a conference in Vienna at 07:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2019 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Monday’s initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri’s post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (April) should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1235
Euro’s retreat in New York session on Mon after re-test previous May’s 1.1265 high (Reuters) suggests recent erratic upmove has possibly make a top there and consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1204/08 would add credence to this view and bring stronger retracement to 1.1167/70.
Only above 1.1265 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1300/04.
The euro area will release a slew of eco. data during European morning, please refer to our Economic Indicator section for details.
AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1204
Yesterday’s anticipated fall from 1.1246 (Reuters) to 1.1201 near New York close confirms recent erratic rise from May’s 1.1135 low has made a top at 1.1265 (Reuters) on Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, however, reckon 1.1135 should continue to hold and bring choppy sideways swings.
Only above 1.1265 risks stronger correction of Medium Term downtrend to 1.1290/00 later this week.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details). ECB’s Lane will give a speech in Tallinn at 08:00GMT. German ECONMIN Altmaier will speak at 12:30GMT, then ECB’s Coeure will speak in Paris at 14:15GMT and later ECB’s Chief Economist Praet will speak in Belgium at 16:30GMT.
AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro’s resumption of decline from this week’s 1.1265 high (Monday) to 1.1178 on Italy’s budget deficit concerns, intra-day jump to 1.1225 after news Trump may delay auto-tariffs suggests choppy trading inside recent 1.1135-1.1265 broad range would continue with upside bias.
Only below 1.1178 risks marginal weakness but loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 1.1135 and bring another rebound later.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Italy CPI, trade balance, EU trade balance, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, and Canada manufacturing sales ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1177
Despite euro’s resumption of decline from this week’s 1.1265 (Monday) high to 1.1168 yesterday due to usd’s strength in New York after upbeat U.S. data and rebound in U.S. yields, as price is expected to remain confined inside recent 1.1265-1.1135 range, reckon lower level would hold and yield rebound later today or Monday.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1200 would be the 1st signal low is made and price would head back to 1.1225, then 1.1244/46.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, PPI inputs, PPI outputs, EU construction output, HICP, and U.S. leading indicator, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1166
Euro’s resumption of decline from last week’s 1.1265 high (Mon) to an 11-day trough of 1.1155 on Friday due to usd’s strength after upbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests downside bias remains, however, as price is likely to remain confined inside recent broad range of 1.1265-1.1135, only below lower level would yield re-test of April’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112.
On the upside, above 1.1200 would add credence to consolidative outlook and would head back to 1.1225, then later 1.1241/46.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with PPI, then the EU will release current account. ECB’s Chief Economist will speak at an event in London at 08:00GMT n Germany’s ECONMIN Altmaier will speak at an economic forum in Brandenburg at 11:30GMT.
AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1166
Despite euro’s resumption of decline from last week’s 1.1265 high (Mon) to a 2-week low of 1.1151 yesterday, as price is likely to remain confined inside recent broad range of 1.1265-1.1135, indicated lower level would hold and yield rebound.
Above 1.1184 would bring gain to 1.1200, break there adds credence to consolidative outlook and would head back towards 1.1225. Only below 1.1135 risks weakness towards 1.1112.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is thin today with EU consumer confidence being the only data due out in New York morning. However, we have ECB’s Hakkarainen n ECB’s Vice President Guindos speaking in European morning.
AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1165
Despite falling to a marginal 2-week low of 1.1142 (Europe), euro’s intra-day cable-led brief bounce to 1.1188 in New York suggests price would ‘gyrate’ inside recent 1.1265-1.1135 broad range and a daily close above said Tuesday’s high would add credence to this consolidative view and would head back to 1.1265, however, reckon 1.1265 would cap upside.
Below 1.1135 any time would risk re-test of April’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112, break there would extend Medium Term downtrend to 1.1060/70 later this week.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PSNB, PSNCR, U.S. MBA mortgage application, FOMC minutes, and Canada retail sales.
AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1150
Despite falling to a marginal 2-week low of 1.1142 on Tue, subsequent brief bounce to 1.1188 and yesterday’s sideways swings in directionless trading suggests price would ‘gyrate’ inside recent 1.1265-1.1135 broad range and a daily close above said Tuesday’s high would add credence to this consolidative view and would head back to 1.1265, however, reckon 1.1265 would cap upside.
Below 1.1135 any time would risk re-test of Apr’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112, break there would extend MT downtrend to 1.1060/70 later this week.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss industrial production, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
Canada wholesale trade, and U.S. building permits, initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1178
Despite euro’s intra-day brief break of previous 2019 low at 1.1112 to a 2-year trough of 1.1108, subsequent impressive rally to 1.1187 due to usd’s broad-based weakness on initial selloff in U.S. stocks and falling yields suggests temporary bottom is in place and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation with upside bias is in store.
Above this week’s 1.1188 high (Tuesday) would bring stronger retracement to 1.1225, however, near term o/bot condition should cap price below May’s peak at 1.1265.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan national CPI, UK retail sales, CBI distributive trades, and U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense.
AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1210
Although euro’s resumption of near term upmove from last Thursday’s 2-year bottom at 1.1108 to 1.1212 Friday due to broad-based usd’s weakness confirms Medium Term downtrend has made a temporary low, o/bot condition should prevent strong gain today and reckon previous res 1.1265 (April’s high) would cap upside and yield retreat later today or tomorrow.
On the downside, only below sup area at 1.1173/79 signals 1st leg of correction is over and yields retracement to 1.1145/55 before prospect of rebound.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area, so order flows will have a greater impart to intra-day price swings. ECB’s Coeure will be delivering a speech organised by BIS in Basel, Switzerland.
AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 May 2019 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1195
Despite extending near term upmove from last Thursday’s 2-year bottom at 1.1108 to 1.1215 (Asia) yesterday, subsequent retreat to 1.1187 after reports the EC may fine Italy for exceeding its debt level suggests 1st leg of correction has ended and range trading is in store.
As long as 1.1155 holds, gain to 1.1225/35 is seen but res at 1.1265 should cap upside.
Only below 1.1155 may risk weakness to 1.1115/20.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with Gfk copnsumer confidence and import prices, France’s consumer confidence, Italy’s trade balance, the followed by EU’s consumer confidence, business climate, eco. sentiment, industrial and services sentiment.
AceTraderFx May 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 May 2019 05:30 GMT
Update Time: 29 May 2019 01:17 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1169
Euro’s decline to 1.1160 in New York yesterday after upbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests the 1st leg of correction from last Thursday’s 2-year bottom at 1.1108 has ended at 1.1215 (Monday) and 1-2 days of choppy sideways swings are in store before prospect of another rise to 1.1225 but loss on momentum should cap price below res at 1.1265.
Only below 1.1224 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for re-test of 1.1108 and later towards projected target at 1.1054.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, UK BRC shop price index, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, investor sentiment, Italy business confidence.
U.S. redbook, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Fed’s beige book, and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx May 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1140
Although euro’s decline from 1.1215 (Mon) to 1.1124 yesterday’s due to market concerns on Italy’s clash with the European Commission over its debt level suggests early correction from last Thursday’s 2-year bottom at 1.1108 has ended, below said sup is needed to extend MT downtrend towards next projected target at 1.1054 next week.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1160 would ‘prolong’ choppy trading above said 2019 bottom, then risk would shift to the upside for another rise towards 1.1215.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand building permits, Australia capital expenditure, building capex.
Swiss market holiday, UK nationwide house price.
U.S. GDP, PCE, trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, and Canada current account, average weekly earnings
AceTraderFx May 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 May 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1138
Although euro’s fall from this week’s high at 1.1265 (Monday) to as low as 1.1116 in New York on Thursday suggests early correction from May’s 2-year bottom at 1.1108 has ended, below 1.1100/08 sup area needed to extend recent downtrend to projected downside target at 1.1054 next week.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1160 would ‘prolong’ choppy sideways swings above 1.1108 and yield another rise to 1.1200/10 but res at 1.1225 would cap upside.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details.