AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
989

AceTraderFx Nov 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Nov 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1843
Despite yesterday’s break above 1.1890/93 res area to a 13-day high of 1.1906 in Europe, subsequent selloff to 1.1800 in New York due to robust U.S. PMI data suggests choppy trading below November’s 7-week peak at 1.1919 would continue and intra-day rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 1.1759/60.

On the upside, only above 1.1875/80 may risk gain back to 1.1906, break, 1.1919.

On the data front, Germany will release GDP at 07:00 GMT and focus will be on Ifo data due out at 09:00 GMT. Street forecasts for business climate, current conditions, and expectations are 90.1/87.0/93.5 versus prior readings of 92.7/90.3/95.0. If actual data will be lower, we may see euro weakness again. Also, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 14:00 GMT.

990

AceTraderFx Nov 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Nov 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1901
Despite Monday’s selloff from 1.1906 to 1.1800 on upbeat U.S. data, subsequent rebound to 1.1905 in Asia today suggests pullback has ended and re-test of November’s 7-week 1.1919 peak would be seen after consolidation, break would extend recent upmove to 1.1935/40 but 1.1960/65 should hold, yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1842 (New York low) would risk weakness back to 1.1800, break, 1.1781/88.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia construction work done, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. mortgage applications, building permits, personal income, personal spending, core PCE index, durable goods, GDP, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, new home sales and FOMC minutes.

991

AceTraderFx Nov 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Nov 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1924
Despite yesterday’s retreat from European 11-week high at 1.1929 to 1.1833, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1926 in New York suggests pullback has ended and recent upmove from November’s 1.1603 trough would resume after consolidation and head to 1.1960/65 before prospect of retreat due to overbought condition.

On the downside, only below 1.1883 would indicate temporary top is made and risks weakness to 1.1842/47, break, 1.1800.

On the data front, Germany will release GfK consumer sentiment at 07:00 GMT, with street forecasts at -5.0, versus previous readings of -3.1. Also, we have ECB’s executive board member Philip Lane scheduled to speak at 12:00 GMT followed by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at 13:00 GMT.

992

AceTraderFx Nov 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Nov 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1912
Although euro’s strong retreat from Thursday’s fresh 11-week high of 1.1940 to 1.1886 due to intra-day broad-based recovery in usd suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound in holiday-thin N. American session has retained bullishness for further gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below 2020 peak at 1.2011 (Sep).

Only a daily close below 1.1883 (Wed’s low) would risk stronger retracement twd 1.1842 before prospect of another rise on Monday.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, consumer .
Canada budget balance.
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993

AceTraderFx Nov 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Nov 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1968
Euro’s resumption of recent upmove to an 11-week high of 1.1964 (New York) on Friday due to renewed risk sentiment suggests price is en route to 2020 2-year peak at 1.2011 (Sep) after consolidation, a daily close above there would encourage for further headway toward next projected target at 1.2065 later.

On the downside, only below 1.1915 (European low Fri) signals temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1883/86 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released later today:
Japan industrial output, retail sales, New Zealand business outlook, Australia business inventories, China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI.
Swiss retail sales, KOF indicator, Italy CPI, Germany CPI, HICP.
Canada current account, producer prices, U.S. Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing on Monday.

994

AceTraderFx Dec 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1943
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent upmove to a fresh 12-week high of 1.2003 in New York morning, failure to re-test Sep’s 2-year peak of 1.2011 and subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1925 due to month-end demand for usd suggests temporary top has been made, as long as 1.1883/86 sup holds, prospect of another rebound towards 1.2000 remains.

Only a daily close below 1.1883 would shift risk to the downside from stronger correction towards 1.1800 later this week.

Although price has staged a rebound in Asia n fresh buying interest (bargain hunting), as yesterday’s decline signals recent upmove has made temporary top, consolidation with downside bias is seen for another fall, reckon sup at 1.1883-86 would contained weakness.
Offers are tipped at 1.1955/65 and more above with fairly large stops reported above 1.2015. Bids are noted at 1.1925/15 with stops below 1.1880.

995

AceTraderFx Dec 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2066
Euro’s impressive rally on Tue above previous 2020 high of 1.2011 (now sup) to a 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2076 in New York due to continued usd’s weakness on market’s risk appetite suggests further gain would be seen after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price below 1.2155 and risk has increased for a minor retracement to occur later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2011 confirms temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1961.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data as well as a number of ECB board members schedule to speak later today, pls refer to our EI page for details.

996

AceTraderFx Dec 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2108
Although euro’s gain to a fresh 2-1/2 year high of 1.2118 near New York close Wed after intra-day retreat from 1.2088 (Europe) to 1.2041 suggests recent uptrend remains in progress and would extend marginal gain after consolidation, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price at 1.2175/80.

On the downside, only a daily close below said yesterday’s 1.2041 confirms temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2011.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details) n pay attention to key Markit services PMI for Nov especially for euro zone’s largest economy, German services PMI.

997

AceTraderFx Dec 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Euro’s retreat from Thursday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2175 to 1.2133 in hectic New York session suggests initial consolidation is in store, as long as yesterday’s 1.2102 low (Europe) holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of near term upward momentum should cap price below 1.2257.

Only a daily close below 1.2102 confirms temporary top is made and risk would shift to the downside for a stronger correction to 1.2041 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia retail sales.
Germany industrial orders, France budget balance, Italy retail sales, UK Markit construction PMI, Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, durable ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation.

998

AceTraderFx Dec 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2127
Although euro’s decline in post-NFP New York Fri on broad-based usd’s recovery due to jump in U.S. yields after hitting a fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2177 (Europe) suggests temporary top is made and 1-2 days of sideways swings are in store, as long as 1.2041 sup holds, prospect of re-test of 1.2177 remains but loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2200/05.

Only a daily close below 1.2041 signals stronger correction has taken place and risks weakness to 1.2011 later this week.

Data to be released later today :
Australia AIG services index, ANZ job advertisements, China exports, imports, trade balance, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.

999

AceTraderFx Dec 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2108
Euro’s intra-day cable-led fall from 1.2140 (Asia) to 1.2079 in Europe, then subsequent rally to as high as 1.2166 suggests early correction from Fri’s 2-1/2 month peak at 1.2177 has ended. Despite subsequent strong retreat in New York session, as long as 1.2079 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains and above 1.2166 would bring re-test of 1.2177, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2200/05.

A daily close below 1.2079 would shift risk to downside for stronger retracement towards 1.2041, however, reckon 1.2011 would contain weakness and bring rebound later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan all household spending, current account, trade balance, GDP deflator, GDP, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook, machine tool orders, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, home price index.
UK BRC retail sales, France non-farm payrolls, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU employment change, GDP, ZEW survey expectation.
Canada leading index, and U.S. labor costs, productivity, redbook.

1000

AceTraderFx Dec 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2112
Although euro’s strong rebound from 1.2079 to 1.2166 Monday suggests pullback from Fri’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 has ended, subsequent choppy swings on Tue would bring further range trading and as long as 1.2079 holds, upside bias remains, a daily close above 1.2166 would extend recent uptrend to projected target at 1.2200/05.

Only a daily close below 1.2079 risks stronger retracement to 1.2041, however, reckon 1.2011 would contain weakness.

Eco. calendar is pretty thin with germany’s export, import, trade n current balance being the only data due out at 07:00GMT. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with UK PM Boris Johnson in Brussels later today in a last-minute attempt to clinch a Brexit deal ahead of European Council meeting on Thur.

1001

AceTraderFx Dec 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2081
Although yesterday’s break of Mon’s 1.2079 low to 1.2060 due to broad-based usd’s rebound in New York suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at last Fri’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177, near term oversold condition would keep price above 1.2011 ahead of ECB rate decision and bring rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above Wed’s 1.2147 top signals correction is over and outlook would turn bullish for re-test of 1.2177 later.

Ahead of ECB’s monetary policy announcement at 12:45GMT n post-ECB press conference at 13:30GMT, we have France’s industrial output at 07:45GMT. The EU Council will hold a 2-day meeting starting today, one of the key agendas is to brief member states the state of play in latest Brexit talks.

1002

AceTraderFx Dec 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2144
Euro’s erratic rise to 1.2158 in post-ECB New York trading on Thursday suggests correction from last Fri’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 has ended earlier at 1.2060 (Wed) and above said res would extend recent uptrend towards projected target at 1.2216 early next week.

Only below 1.2082 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings below 1.2177 and may risk re-test of 1.2060, break, 1.2041.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, food price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output, Canada capacity utilization.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment.

1003

AceTraderFx Dec 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2125
Despite euro’s strg rebound from last week’s low of 1.2060 (Wed) to 1.2162 on Fri, subsequent decline to 1.2106 in NY suggests further volatile sideways swings below December’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 would continue today and intra-day retreat signals downside bias remains but 1.2060 should contain weakness and yield another rise later today or tomorrow.

Above 1.2162/66 res would encourage for re-test of 1.2177, then resumption of recent uptrend to 1.2200/10.

The only eco. data due out is EU’s industrial production. We have ECB members Panetta n Schnabel speaking at 09:45GMT n 13:30GMT respectively.

1004

AceTraderFx Dec 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Despite yesterday’s choppy sideways swings after Mon’s retreat from 1.2177 to 1.2122 (New York low Tuesday), as long as sup area at 1.2106/16 holds, upside bias remains, above said 2-1/2 year high at 1.2177 would encourage for resumption of uptrend to 1.2210/20 later.

On the downside, only a daily close below said sup dampens bullishness and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2060 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, DCLG house price index, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, construction output, trade balance, labour costs, Canada CPI, wholesale trade.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

1005

AceTraderFx Dec 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2207
As euro has risen after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected retreat from a fresh 2-1/2 year high of 1.2211 (Europe) to 1.2126 in post-FOMC New York, upside bias is retained, however, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain to 1.2255/60.

Only below 1.2146 ‘prolongs’ choppy consolidation and risks weakness to 1.2122/26, break would extend to 1.2106.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, imports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, France business climate, EU HICP, core HICP, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE vote unchanged, BoE vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Federal manufacturing index, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada new house price index, ADP employment change.

1006

AceTraderFx Dec 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2252
Euro’s rally above Wed’s 1.2211 high (now sup) to a fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2273 in New York due to continued usd’s weakness on risk appetite suggests price would head to 1.2315/25 after consolidation, however, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to prevent strong gain today and yield a much-needed minor correction later.

Only below 1.2211 confirms temporary top is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.2177.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, BoJ interest rate decision.
UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, CBI trends orders, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU current account, Italy producer prices.
U.S. current account, leading index change, and Canada new housing price index, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.

1007

AceTraderFx Dec 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2220
Euro’s intra-day weakness to 1.2205 due to broad-based rebound in usd suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at Thursday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 and further weakness can’t be ruled out, near term oversold condition may keep price above 1.2177 (previous res, now sup).

On the upside, a firm rise above 1.2258/59 is needed to signal pullback has ended and bring re-test of 1.2273, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2310/15 today.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand business outlook, business activities.
Italy trade balance, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. Chicago Fed National activity and EU consumer confidence on Monday.

1008

AceTraderFx Dec 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2237
Despite yesterday’s intra-day erratic fall from 1.2226 (Europe) to 1.2131 on broad-based safe-haven usd buying due to selloff in global stocks, subsequent rally back to as high as 1.2253 in New York on rebound in U.S. stocks suggests pullback from Thursday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 has ended and resumption of medium-term uptrend to 1.2300/10 is envisaged after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 1.2200/05 ‘prolongs’ volatile trading below 1.2273 and may risk weakness towards 1.2169 but 1.2131 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia retail sales.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, UK GDP, current account, PSNB, PSNCR, Canada average weekly earnings.
U.S. GDP, PCE, core PCE, redbook, retail sales, existing homes sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing.