AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
995

AceTraderFx Dec 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2066
Euro’s impressive rally on Tue above previous 2020 high of 1.2011 (now sup) to a 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2076 in New York due to continued usd’s weakness on market’s risk appetite suggests further gain would be seen after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price below 1.2155 and risk has increased for a minor retracement to occur later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2011 confirms temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1961.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data as well as a number of ECB board members schedule to speak later today, pls refer to our EI page for details.

996

AceTraderFx Dec 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2108
Although euro’s gain to a fresh 2-1/2 year high of 1.2118 near New York close Wed after intra-day retreat from 1.2088 (Europe) to 1.2041 suggests recent uptrend remains in progress and would extend marginal gain after consolidation, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price at 1.2175/80.

On the downside, only a daily close below said yesterday’s 1.2041 confirms temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2011.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details) n pay attention to key Markit services PMI for Nov especially for euro zone’s largest economy, German services PMI.

997

AceTraderFx Dec 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Euro’s retreat from Thursday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2175 to 1.2133 in hectic New York session suggests initial consolidation is in store, as long as yesterday’s 1.2102 low (Europe) holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of near term upward momentum should cap price below 1.2257.

Only a daily close below 1.2102 confirms temporary top is made and risk would shift to the downside for a stronger correction to 1.2041 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia retail sales.
Germany industrial orders, France budget balance, Italy retail sales, UK Markit construction PMI, Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, durable ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation.

998

AceTraderFx Dec 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2127
Although euro’s decline in post-NFP New York Fri on broad-based usd’s recovery due to jump in U.S. yields after hitting a fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2177 (Europe) suggests temporary top is made and 1-2 days of sideways swings are in store, as long as 1.2041 sup holds, prospect of re-test of 1.2177 remains but loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2200/05.

Only a daily close below 1.2041 signals stronger correction has taken place and risks weakness to 1.2011 later this week.

Data to be released later today :
Australia AIG services index, ANZ job advertisements, China exports, imports, trade balance, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.

999

AceTraderFx Dec 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2108
Euro’s intra-day cable-led fall from 1.2140 (Asia) to 1.2079 in Europe, then subsequent rally to as high as 1.2166 suggests early correction from Fri’s 2-1/2 month peak at 1.2177 has ended. Despite subsequent strong retreat in New York session, as long as 1.2079 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains and above 1.2166 would bring re-test of 1.2177, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2200/05.

A daily close below 1.2079 would shift risk to downside for stronger retracement towards 1.2041, however, reckon 1.2011 would contain weakness and bring rebound later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan all household spending, current account, trade balance, GDP deflator, GDP, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook, machine tool orders, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, home price index.
UK BRC retail sales, France non-farm payrolls, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU employment change, GDP, ZEW survey expectation.
Canada leading index, and U.S. labor costs, productivity, redbook.

1000

AceTraderFx Dec 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2112
Although euro’s strong rebound from 1.2079 to 1.2166 Monday suggests pullback from Fri’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 has ended, subsequent choppy swings on Tue would bring further range trading and as long as 1.2079 holds, upside bias remains, a daily close above 1.2166 would extend recent uptrend to projected target at 1.2200/05.

Only a daily close below 1.2079 risks stronger retracement to 1.2041, however, reckon 1.2011 would contain weakness.

Eco. calendar is pretty thin with germany’s export, import, trade n current balance being the only data due out at 07:00GMT. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with UK PM Boris Johnson in Brussels later today in a last-minute attempt to clinch a Brexit deal ahead of European Council meeting on Thur.

1001

AceTraderFx Dec 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2081
Although yesterday’s break of Mon’s 1.2079 low to 1.2060 due to broad-based usd’s rebound in New York suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at last Fri’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177, near term oversold condition would keep price above 1.2011 ahead of ECB rate decision and bring rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above Wed’s 1.2147 top signals correction is over and outlook would turn bullish for re-test of 1.2177 later.

Ahead of ECB’s monetary policy announcement at 12:45GMT n post-ECB press conference at 13:30GMT, we have France’s industrial output at 07:45GMT. The EU Council will hold a 2-day meeting starting today, one of the key agendas is to brief member states the state of play in latest Brexit talks.

1002

AceTraderFx Dec 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2144
Euro’s erratic rise to 1.2158 in post-ECB New York trading on Thursday suggests correction from last Fri’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 has ended earlier at 1.2060 (Wed) and above said res would extend recent uptrend towards projected target at 1.2216 early next week.

Only below 1.2082 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings below 1.2177 and may risk re-test of 1.2060, break, 1.2041.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, food price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output, Canada capacity utilization.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment.

1003

AceTraderFx Dec 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2125
Despite euro’s strg rebound from last week’s low of 1.2060 (Wed) to 1.2162 on Fri, subsequent decline to 1.2106 in NY suggests further volatile sideways swings below December’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2177 would continue today and intra-day retreat signals downside bias remains but 1.2060 should contain weakness and yield another rise later today or tomorrow.

Above 1.2162/66 res would encourage for re-test of 1.2177, then resumption of recent uptrend to 1.2200/10.

The only eco. data due out is EU’s industrial production. We have ECB members Panetta n Schnabel speaking at 09:45GMT n 13:30GMT respectively.

1004

AceTraderFx Dec 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Despite yesterday’s choppy sideways swings after Mon’s retreat from 1.2177 to 1.2122 (New York low Tuesday), as long as sup area at 1.2106/16 holds, upside bias remains, above said 2-1/2 year high at 1.2177 would encourage for resumption of uptrend to 1.2210/20 later.

On the downside, only a daily close below said sup dampens bullishness and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2060 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, DCLG house price index, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, construction output, trade balance, labour costs, Canada CPI, wholesale trade.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

1005

AceTraderFx Dec 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2207
As euro has risen after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected retreat from a fresh 2-1/2 year high of 1.2211 (Europe) to 1.2126 in post-FOMC New York, upside bias is retained, however, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain to 1.2255/60.

Only below 1.2146 ‘prolongs’ choppy consolidation and risks weakness to 1.2122/26, break would extend to 1.2106.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, imports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, France business climate, EU HICP, core HICP, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE vote unchanged, BoE vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Federal manufacturing index, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada new house price index, ADP employment change.

1006

AceTraderFx Dec 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2252
Euro’s rally above Wed’s 1.2211 high (now sup) to a fresh 2-1/2 year peak of 1.2273 in New York due to continued usd’s weakness on risk appetite suggests price would head to 1.2315/25 after consolidation, however, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to prevent strong gain today and yield a much-needed minor correction later.

Only below 1.2211 confirms temporary top is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.2177.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, BoJ interest rate decision.
UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, CBI trends orders, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, EU current account, Italy producer prices.
U.S. current account, leading index change, and Canada new housing price index, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.

1007

AceTraderFx Dec 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2220
Euro’s intra-day weakness to 1.2205 due to broad-based rebound in usd suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top at Thursday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 and further weakness can’t be ruled out, near term oversold condition may keep price above 1.2177 (previous res, now sup).

On the upside, a firm rise above 1.2258/59 is needed to signal pullback has ended and bring re-test of 1.2273, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2310/15 today.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand business outlook, business activities.
Italy trade balance, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. Chicago Fed National activity and EU consumer confidence on Monday.

1008

AceTraderFx Dec 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2237
Despite yesterday’s intra-day erratic fall from 1.2226 (Europe) to 1.2131 on broad-based safe-haven usd buying due to selloff in global stocks, subsequent rally back to as high as 1.2253 in New York on rebound in U.S. stocks suggests pullback from Thursday’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 has ended and resumption of medium-term uptrend to 1.2300/10 is envisaged after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 1.2200/05 ‘prolongs’ volatile trading below 1.2273 and may risk weakness towards 1.2169 but 1.2131 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia retail sales.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, UK GDP, current account, PSNB, PSNCR, Canada average weekly earnings.
U.S. GDP, PCE, core PCE, redbook, retail sales, existing homes sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing.

1009

AceTraderFx Dec 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2167
Despite euro’s strong rebound from 1.2131 (Mon) to 1.2256 in Europe yesterday, subsequent selloff to 1.2153 as the greenback caught a bid in New York after upbeat U.S. data suggests further choppy trading below last Thursday’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 would continue with downside bias, below 1.2131 needed to bring stronger correction to 1.2106, then 1.2180/85.

On the upside, only above 1.2256 aborts bearishness and risks re-test of 1.2273, break, 1.2290/00.

On the eco. calendar n the euro area countries, Germany will kick off with import prices, then France’s producer prices n Italy’s business n consumer confidence.

1010

AceTraderFx Dec 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2198
Although euro’s early rally from 1.2131 to 1.2253 on Monday, then 1.2256 (Tuesday) signals correction from December’s fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 has ended, subsequent retreat to 1.2153 and then yesterday’s cable-led bounce to 1.2220 suggests further daily sideways swings inside 1.2273-1.2131 range would continue, probably for rest of this week.

Wednesday’s cable-led usd’s weakness suggests upside bias remains today but only a daily close above 1.2256 would bring re-test of 1.2273, then 1.2300/10.
Only below 1.2153 risks re-test of 1.2131, break yields stronger retracement to 1.2100/05.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia market holiday.
Germany market holiday and Canada building permits.

1011

AceTraderFx Dec 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2189
Despite euro’s strong rebound last week from 1.2131 to as high as 1.2256 (Tue), subsequent retreat suggests further volatile swings below Dec’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 would continue, however, as long as 1.2131 holds, upside bias remains, above 1.2256 would encourage for re-test of 1.2273.

Only below 1.2131 shifts risk to the downside for a stronger correction to 1.2106 but 1.2085/90 should contain weakness.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries today.

1012

AceTraderFx Dec 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2226
Despite euro’s initial gain to 1.2250 in European morning on Monday, subsequent strong retreat to 1.2192 ahead of New York open suggests further volatile swings below Dec’s 2-1/2 year peak at 1.2273 would continue with downside bias, however, reckon 1.2131 (last week’s reaction low on Monday) should remain intact and yield another rise later this week.

A daily close above 1.2250 would encourage for resumption of recent uptrend to projected target at 1.2305.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.S. redbook and CaseShiller home price.

1013

AceTraderFx Dec 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2290
Euro’s intra-day firm break above Tue’s fresh 2-1/2 year high at 1.2275 (New York) confirms medium-tern uptrend from 2020 bottom at 1.0637 (march) remains in progress, however, near term overbought condition is likely to cap price below projected res at 1.2330/40 today and risk has increased for a correction to take place later today or tomorrow.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2237 signals temporary top is in place and yields stronger retracement towards 1.2092.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Germany retail sales, UK nationwide house price, Swiss KOF indicator, investor sentiment.
U.S. trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, pending home sales.

1014

AceTraderFx Dec 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 2020 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2306
Yesterday’s gain to a 33-month high of 1.2309 (New York) on renewed usd’s broad-based weakness suggests euro’s medium-term uptrend from 2020 bottom at 1.0637 (March) would head to 1.2345/55, however, near term weakening of upward momentum is expected to cap price below 1.2390/00.

On the downside, only below 1.2253 (European low Wednesday) may risk stronger retracement towatds 1.2192.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan market holiday, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.