AceTraderFx Apr 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 30 Apr 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.2121
Although euro’s short-covering rebound from Friday’s fresh 3-month trough of 1.2056 to 1.2133 in New York session suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low, as long as 1.2155 (previous sup, now res) holds, re-test of said sup is still envisaged, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2000.
Only a daily close above 1.2155 confirms temporary low is in place, then risk is seen for stronger retracement towards 1.2200.
ON the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales followed by Italy’s CPI, and then the same from Germany.
AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 02 May 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1997
Yesterday’s selloff below last Fri’s 1.2056 low (now res) to a fresh 3-/12 month trough of 1.1982 in holiday-thinned New York session suggests recent downtrend would resume after consolidation before extending to 1.1940/50.
However, reckon 2018 bottom at 1.1916 (January low) should remain intact.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2056 signals temporary low is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.2100/10 later.
[B]Data out later on Wednesday : [/B]
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, GDP preliminary, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, GDP, unemployment rate, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI,
U.S. MBA mortgage app, ADP employment change, ISM New York index, Fed interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 03 May 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1968
Despite euro’s knee-jerk reaction after Fed’s hawkish hold in volatile New York trading on Wed, subsequent weakness to a fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1938 suggests re-test of 2018 bottom at 1.1916 (January) would be seen after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1880/85.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2032 confirms temporary low is in place, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.2056, then 1.2084.
[B]Data to be released later : [/B]
U.K. Markit services PMI, EU HICP, core HICP, producer prices, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, Markit services PMI, durable ex-defence, durable goods, factory orders, durable ex-transportation, ISM non-manufacturing PMI
AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 07 May 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1972
Despite euro’s resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 3-1/2 month trough of 1.1912 in post-NFP New York trading, subsequent rebound and intra-day firmness in Asia suggests temporary low is possibly made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for stronger retracement to 1.2025.
Only below 1.1912/16 sup would risk marginal weakness however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1881/86 today.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting wit German industrial orders, EU sentix investor confidence index and French current account.
Later today,ECB Boad member Praet will deliver a speech at a financial event in Geneva at 15:30GMT.
AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 10 May 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1863
Although euro’s strong rebound from Wed’s fresh 4-month trough of 1.1823 to 1.1897 suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low there and range trading is expected in holiday-thinned European morning (many European centres are closed for market holiday), as long as 1.1897 res holds, marginal weakness can’t be ruled out but loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1800/05.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1897 would bring stronger correction to 1.1939 and then 1.1978 before prospect of a retreat.
[B]Data to release on Thursday :[/B]
New Zealand interest rate decision, Japan current account, economy watchers current, economy watchers outlook, China PPI, CPI.
Italy industrial output, UK RICS housing price balance, construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance non-EU, trade balance GBP, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchase,
U.S. core CPI, NIESR GDP, core CPI, CPI, initial jobless claims, federal budget, and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 14 May 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1962
Euro’s anticipated rally to 1.1968 in New York on Friday due to broad-based profit taking in the usd confirms recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Wednesday’s near 4-month trough of 1.1823 and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards 1.2000, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 1.2032.
On the downside, only below 1.1920/30 would bring stronger retracement of said upmove towards 1.1891 before prospect of rebound.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries today but there is a no. of ECB members due to speak later during the day (please refer to our EI page for details).
AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 15 May 2018[/B] [I]02:10 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1936
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s near 4-month trough of 1.1823 to 1.1996 in New York morning, subsequent strong retreat to 1.1921 at the close due to rebound in U.S. yields and short covering in the usd signals 1st leg of correction has ended and 1-2 days of ‘choppy’ sideways swings are in store.
Expect 1.1891 sup to contain intra-day weakness and bring rebound but above 1.1996 needed to head towards 1.2025.
Only a daily close below 1.1891 may risk weakness towards 1.1843.
Pay attention to release of a slew of euro area data starting with German Q1 GDP, France’s CPI, Germany’s ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions n then EZ GDP, ind. production n ZEW eco. sentiment.
AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 16 May 2018[/B] [I]05:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1825
Euro’s brief break of last week’s 1.1823 low to a 4-1/2 month trough of 1.1820 in New York morning due to rising U.S. yields and mildly upbeat U.S. retail sales, then intra-day marginal weakness to 1.1817 ahead of Asian open should pressure price to 1.1765/70, loss of momentum would prevent steep fall and bring a much-needed minor correction later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1875 signals temporary bottom is made and risk retracement to 1.1891, break, 1.1933/38.
[B]Data out on Wednesday : [/B]
Japan GDP, GDP annualised, GDP deflator, industrial production, capacity utilization, China House price, Australia wage price index.
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy industrial output, industrial sales, CPI final, CPI (EU Norm) final, HICP final, core HICP.
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output.
AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 21 May 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1763
Despite euro’s rebound from last Fri’s fresh 5-1/2 month trough of 1.1750, as long as 1.1822 holds, downside bias remains for marginal weakness below said temporary low, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1718 and bring correction.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1822 signals temporary low is made, risks stronger retracement to 1.1838, then 1.1854.
No major EZ eco. data is due out today but we have release of monthly Bundesbank monthly report and EU Financial Stability Review during European morning.
AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 23 May 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1781
Euro’s intra-day decline from 1.1830 (Europe) to .1770 in New
York suggests correction from Mon’s 6-month trough at 1.1717 has possibly ended, below 1.1750 would add credence to this view and yield re-test of said temp. low, ‘loss of downward momentum’ would limit weakness to 1.1685/90 today.
Only a daily close above 1.1830 risks stronger retracement to 1.1854 and possibly to 1.1875.
[B]Data to be released on Wednesday : [/B]
France ILO unemployment rate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. DCLG Hosue Price Index, core CPI, CPI, RPI, Core RPI, PPI input price, PPI output price, PPI core output, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales, FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 24 May 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1706
Although euro’s intra-day rebound from Wed’s fresh 6-month trough at 1.1686 after mildly FOMC minutes suggests initial sideways swings above said temporary low would be seen, as long as 1.1750/57 holds, outlook remains bearish for one more fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1630/40 this week.
A daily close above 1.1750 signals temporary low is in place and would bring stronger retracement to 1.1797, then towards 1.1830.
The Eurogroup is having a meeting in Brussels today and will be attended by many EU officials as well as ECB members including ECB President Draghi, pls refer to our EI page for details as well as times of speeches by them.
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 25 May 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1717
Euro’s erratic rise to 1.1750 yesterday suggests recent downtrend has possibly made a temporary low at Wednesday’s fresh 6-month trough at 1.1676, above 1.1770 would add credence to this view and bring a much-needed correction to 1.1800.
However, res at 1.1830 should cap upside.
On the downside, below 1.1691 would risk one more fall, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.1755/60.
Pay attention to release of key German Ifo data esp. the May business climate, if actual comes in weaker than forecast (102.0), then euro will be bashed.
AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 28 May 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1688
Euro’s intra-day rebound to 1.1692 after Italy’s President rejected eurosceptic Savona as EconMin suggests initial choppy trading above Friday’s fresh 6-month trough at 1.1646 would continue, above 1.1700/10 needed to signal temporary low is made and bring stronger retracement towards 1.1750.
On the downside, below 1.1646 would extend marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum should limit weakness to 1.1600/10 before prospect of a much-needed correction.
On the eco. data front, Italy’s PPI is the only data due out at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 01 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1695
As euro has risen after yesterday’s intra-day retreat from 1.1724 to 1.1642 (New York), suggesting near term upmove from Tuesday’s 10-month trough at 1.1510 would head to chart obj. at 1.1750, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1800 and yield strong retracement of aforesaid rise (release of upbeat U.S. jobs report perhaps).
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1642 signals at least the 1st leg of correction from 1.1510 has ended and would pressure price towards 1.1595.
[B]
Data to be released on Friday : [/B]
New Zealand imports, exports, Australia AIG manufacturing index, HIA new home sales, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Swiss manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, GDP, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI
AceTraderFx Jun 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 04 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1663
Despite euro’s intra-day wild swings in post-NFP New York morning on Fri, subsequent rebound from 1.1617 suggests pullback from 1.1724 (Thursday) has possibly ended and corrective upmove from Tuesday’s 6-month trough at 1.1510 would head towards 1.1750, ‘loss of momentum’ should cap price at 1.1770/80.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1617 would signal said correction from 1.1510 has ended and would pressure price to 1.1670/75 later.
On the eco. front, the eco calendar is pretty light with EU Sentix investor confidence, PPI being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Jun 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 06 Jun 2018[/B] [I]06:00 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1725
Yesterday’s rally from 1.1653 to 1.1732 in hectic New York trading suggests euro’s pullback from 1.1744 (Monday) has ended and corrective rise from last Tuesday’s 10-month trough at 1.1510 may head to 1.1780/90 after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below res at 1.1830.
On the downside, below 1.1653 anytime signals said upmove has made a top and risks retracement to 1.1617 later.
Although no important EZ data is due out today, we have ECB’s Praet and Knot speaking at 07:00GMT and 09:00GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Jun 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 08 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1806
Despite euro’s retreat from Thursday’s 3-week high of 1.1840, as long as 1.1780/90 holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for upmove from May’s 10-month trough at 1.1510 to head to 1.1860/70, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1907.
Below 1.1761 anytime confirms said rise has made a temporary top and risks stronger retarcement to 1.1744, then 1.1705/10.
Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany’s industrial orders, trade balance and France’s industrial output. ECB’s Mersch will speak in Paris at 07:15GMT
AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 11 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1780
Although euro’s decline from last Thursday’s 3-week high at 1.1840 to 1.1727 on Fri suggests recent strong upmove from May’s 10-month trough at 1.1510 has made a top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings initially, as long as res at 1.1810 holds, downside bias remains for another fall towards 1.1727, however, reckon 1.1675 would contain weakness.
On the upside, only above 1.1810 may risk re-test of 1.1840, then marginal gain to 1.1870/75 before prospect of a correction later.
EZ eco. calendar is pretty light with Italy’s industrial output being the only data due out. German Chancellor Merkel will be speaking at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 12 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1757
Despite euro’s strong rebound from 1.1727 (Fri) to 1.1821 in Europe yesterday, subsequent retreat and then intra-day weakness on broad-based usd’s strength ahead of outcome of Trump/Kim summit suggests choppy trading below last Thursday’s 3-week peak at 1.1840 would continue, as long as 1.1727 sup holds, upside bias remains but above 1.1840 needed to head to 1.1880/90 later.
A daily close below 1.1727 would risk stronger retracement of recent upmove towards 1.1675 but sup at 1.1617 should remain intact.
[B]Data out later on Tuesday : [/B]
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, lower house vote on withdrawal bill, EU ZEW economic sentiment, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, Redbook, Federal budget, Trump-Kim summit
AceTraderFx Jun 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 15 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1562
Euro’s intra-day selloff from Thursday’s 3-week high of 1.1852 in post-ECB to as low as 1.1563 due to ECB Draghi’s ‘dovish’ guidance suggests correction from May’s 10-month trough at 1.1510 has ended there and re-test of this key sup is envisaged, break would extend Medium Term downtrend to 1.1480.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1653 defers bearishness on the euro but 1.1726/27 (previous sup, now res) should remain intact.
There is a slew of euro area eco. data due out during European morning (please refer to EI page for details) and ECB Board member Coeure will speak at 08:45GMT in Paris.