AceTraderFx Jun 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 19 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1632
Although intra-day selloff in usd/yen has led to broad-based usd’s weakness vs the G4 currencies, suggesting further choppy trading above last Friday’s 2-week low at 1.1543 would continue, above 1.1672/77 needed to bring stronger retracement of last week;s selloff from 1.1852 to 1.1700/10 before another fall.
A firm break of 1.1596 (New York low) signals correction is over and would head back towards 1.1543 later today or tomorrow.
The eco. calendar is pretty light with EU’s current account n construction output being the only data due out.
However, pay attention to speeches by a number of ECB officials who are appearing in the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. ECB President Draghi will begin by delivering the first speech at 08:00GMT, then followed by other speakers (please refer to EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Jun 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 20 Jun 2018[/B] [I]6:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1576
Despite yesterday’s resumption of decline from last week’s 1.1852 high to 1.1531 in Europe, subsequent short-covering rebound in New York suggests further choppy trading above May’s 10-month bottom at 1.1510 would continue and gain to 1.1624/27 can’t be ruled out but 1.1645 should remain intact.
Below 1.1550 would head towards 1.1510 but loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1480 today.
On the eco. data front, German PPI is the only data due out. The ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal continues today with a number of ECB officials and Fed chairman J. Powell and other central bankers scheduled to speak during the day (pls refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 25 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1659
Euro’s resumption of near term upmove from last Thursday’s 11-month bottom at 1.1509 to as high as 1.1675 (Europe) on Friday suggests Medium Term downtrend has made a temp. low and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1700, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.1726 and yield subsequent retreat.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1600 signals 1st leg of correction over and risk stronger retracement to 1.1571/76.
[B]Data out on Monday: [/B]
Japan coincident indicator, leading economic index.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. building permits, national activity index, new home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.
AceTraderFx Jun 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 26 Jun 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1706
Euro’s rise above last Friday’s 1.1675 high to 1.1713 in New York yesterday suggests medium term decline from February’s 38-month peak at 1.2555 has made a temporary low at last Thursday’s trough at 1.1509 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.1726 but loss of momentum should cap price at 1.1752 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1618 signals recovery has ended and risks weakness towards 1.1600, then 1.1587.
[B]Data to be released on Tuesday : [/B]
U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, CBI distributive, and U.S. redbook, CS home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index
AceTraderFx Jun 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 29 Jun 2018[/B] [I]4:11 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1570
Although yesterday’s rebound from 1.1528 (Europe) to 1.1600 in New York suggests further volatile trading above last Thursday’s 11-month bottom at 1.1509 would continue, as long as 1.1629/35 (previous sup area, now res) holds, re-test of 1.1509 is still envisaged, below 1.1500 needed to extend to 1.1470/80.
Only above 1.1635 would risk another rise to 1.1672 but this week’s high at 1.1720 should remain intact.
[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]
U.K. GfK consumer confidence, GDP, current account, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, France consumer spending, CPI (EU norm), producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, EU HICP.
Canada GDP, producer prices, and U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jul 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 03 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1640
Despite yesterday’s intra-day decline from 1.1697 (New Zealand) to as low as 1.1591 in New York morning on market jitters over a potential split in German coalition, subsequent bounce near New York close after a compromise deal of EU migration was reached has retained bullishness and upmove from last week’s 1.1527 low may head to 1.1720, break would encourage for stronger correction towards 1.1750.
Only below 1.1591 may risk weakness towards 1.1552 before prospect of rebound.
[B]Data to be released on Tuesday :[/B]
France budget balance, UK Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, retail sales.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, durable goods, durables ex-defense, durables ex-transport, factory orders.
AceTraderFx Jul 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 06 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1693
Yesterday’s initial rally to 1.1711 in Europe on upbeat German data and then re-test of last week’s high at 1.1720 bodes well for upmove from Jun’s 11-month trough at 1.1509 to head to 1.1750 after consolidation.
As long as 1.1650 holds, upside bias remains and only below said sup would risk stronger retracement to 1.1621 but reckon 1.15941 should remain intact.
[B]Data to be released on Friday : [/B]
Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, goods trade balance, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI
AceTraderFx Jul 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 09 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1754
Euro’s expected resumption of recent upmove to a 3-week high of 1.1768 in post-NFP New York on Fri suggests upside bias remains for price to head to 1.1800/10 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum is likely to prevent strong gain and reckon key daily res at 1.1852 should remain intact.
On the downside, below 1.1697 (previous res, now sup) anytime signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1650 later this week.
On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with export, import data, trade balance n current account, the EU will release Sentix investor sentiment.
A number of ECB heavyweights will be speaking today starting with ECB Chief Economist Praet at 07:00GMT, then ECB Presisent who will speak at 13:00GMT and then 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jul 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 12 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1676
Yesterday’s break of Tuesday’s 1.1690 low to 1.1666 in New York due to broad-based usd’s strength suggests decline from 1.1791 (Monday) to retrace recent upmove from June’s 11-month trough at 1.1509 has resumed and would pressure price to 1.1625/30, oversold condition should keep price well above last week’s low at 1.1591.
On the upside, only above res at 1.1758/63 signals pullback is over and risks re-test of 1.1791 later.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with Germany’s final CPI, then the same from France, then EU’s industrial prod. and later minutes of previous ECB monetary policy meeting.
AceTraderFx Jul 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 13 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1664
Although euro’s intra-day weakness after yesterday’s rebound from 1.1650 to 1.1696 suggests erratic decline from Monday’s 3-week high at 1.1791 to retrace recent upmove would extend to 1.1630, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above last week’s low at 1.1591 and bring rebound later today or Monday.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1696 would be the 1st signal said retreat from 1.1791 has ended would outlook would improve for subsequent headway towards 1.1758.
[B]Data to be released on Friday :[/B]
Germany wholesale price, France nonfarm payrolls, Swiss producer/import price, and U.S. import prices, export prices, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jul 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 16 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1682
Friday’s rally to 1.1688 after extending decline from Monday’s 3-week high of 1.1791 to retrace early up-move from June’s 11-month trough at 1.1509 to 1.1613 suggests said correction is possibly made.
above 1.1696/00 would encourage for gain towards 1.1758 later.
Reinstate long on dips for 1.1735 and only below 1.1631 may risk ‘one more’ fall towards 1.1591.
On the data front, Italy will release trade balance n the the same from the EU.
AceTraderFx Jul 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 18 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1654
Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected decline from 1.1745 (Europe) to as low as 1.150 in New York due to renewed usd’s strength following upbeat testimony by Fed’s J. Powell suggests early correction from last week’s low at 1.1613 has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains, below said sup needed to extend weakness to 1.1591.
On the upside, only above 1.1700/05 ‘prolongs’ recent broad sideways swings and yields another rise to 1.1735/45.
Eco. calendar in the euro area is pretty light with the EU’s June CPI and HICP being the only data due out.
The EU and Britain will hold Brexit talk. The President of the European Commission Juncker will hold a news conference in Brussels with the president of EIB at 10:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jul 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 20 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1655
Despite euro’s resumption of recent decline to a fresh 2-week trough of 1.1575, subsequent jump to 1.1678 in New York session due to broad-based weakness in the greenback following Trump’s usd-negative comments suggests further ‘choppy’ trading above June’s 11-month bottom at 1.1509 would continue, above 1.1678 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.1725.
On the downside, only below 1.1602 signals rebound is over n would bring re-test of 1.1575 but 1.1509 should remain intact due to loss of downward momentum.
[B]Data to be released on Friday : [/B]
Germany producer prices, EU current account, UK PSNB, PSNCR, Canada CPI, retail sales.
AceTraderFx Jul 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 23 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1742
Euro’s impressive rally from last week’s low at 1.1575 (Thursday) to as high as 1.1739 in New York on Friday due to usd’s weakness suggests choppy trading above June’s 11-month bottom at 1.1509 would continue and as long as 1.1678 holds, gain towards last week’s high at 1.1791 after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 1.1678 signals temporary top has been made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1650/55 before prospect of another rise later.
Eco. calendar is very thin for the euro area countries today with RU’s prelim. consumer confidence for July being the only data due out at 14:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jul 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 25 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1686
Although euro’s rebound from 1.1655 to 1.1717 in European morning after upbeat German PMI data suggests pullback from Monday’s high at 1.1750 has ended there, subsequent retreat in New York would bring sideways swings ahead of release of key German Ifo data.
Above 1.1717 would encourage for re-test of 1.1750, however, ‘loss of momentum’ should cap price below July’s peak at 1.1791 whilst below 1.1655 would risk stronger retracement of upmove from last week’s rally from 1.1575 to 1.1621/26 before prospect of rebound.
[B]Data to be released later : [/B]
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, UK BBA mortgage approvals, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, new home sales.
AceTraderFx Jul 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 30 Jul 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1663
Euro’s 3-legged fall last week from 1.1750 to 1.1621 (Fri) suggests further ‘gyrations’ inside recent broad range of 1.1791-1.1575 would continue and despite intra-day rebound in NY afternoon on short covering, as long as 1.1700/06 holds, downside bias remains for marginal weakness to 1.1600/05 before prospect of another bounce.
Above 1.1706 signals said decline from 1.1750 has ended and outlook would improve for stronger gain to 1.1740/50 later.
[B]Data to be released today: [/B]
Japan retail sales, Swiss KOF indicator, EU business blimate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment , consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
U.S. pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.
AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 02 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1652
Although euro’s intra-day break of yesterday’s 1.1658 low confirms decline from this week’s 1.1746 high has resumed and would yield marginal weakness, as price is expected to ‘gyrate’ recent broad range of 1.1575-1.1750 this week, reckon 1.1621 (last week’s low) would hold from here and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, above 1.1700 would encourage for another rise to 1.1740/50.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, EU producer prices, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE MPC vote hike , BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, and U.S. initial jobless claims, ISM New York index, durable goods, durable goods order ex-defense, durable goods order ex-transport, factory orders.
AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 03 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1587
Euro’s intra-day break of last week’s 1.1621 low to 1.1582 (New York) due to continued usd’s broad-based strength suggests re-test of July’s bottom at 1.1575 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition is expected to keep price well above June’s 11-month trough at 1.1509.
On the upside, above 1.1658 (soft U.S. jobs data perhaps) signals low is made and risk would shift to the upside for a strong retracement of recent decline to 1.1700.
On the data front, today is PMI day, France will kick off with budget balance, Italy’s services PMI, then the same from France, Germany, Italy’s industrial output, EU’s servcies PMI, Italy’s retail sales and the same from the EU.
AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 06 Aug 2018[/B] [I]5:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1563
Despite staging a brief rebound from Fri’s 1-month low of 1.1562 to 1.1611 in hectic European trading, subsequent sideways swings in post-NFP New York session and intra-day marginal weakness to 1.1557 suggests downside bias remains for further decline, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above June’s 11-month bottom at 1.1509 today.
On the upside, only above 1.1632 signals temporary low is made and may yield stronger retracement to 1.1658, then later to 1.1690/00.
On the data front, Germany will release Jun industrial orders at European open n then EU’s August Sentix investor confidence index.
AceTraderFx Aug 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
[B]DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major [/B]
Update Time: [B] 07 Aug 2018[/B] [I]6:30 GMT[/I]
EUR/USD - 1.1557
Despite euro’s resumption of recent decline to a 1-month trough at 1.1530 due to broad-based usd’s strength yesterday, loss of momentum should keep price above Jun’s 11-month trough at 1.1509 and bring a much-needed correction later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1611 signals temporary low is in place and brings stronger retracement toweards 1.1648/58.
[B]Data to be released on Tuesday : [/B]
UK BRC retail sales, Japan household spending, RBA interest rate decision, Japan’s coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, trade balance, import, export. U.S. Redbook sales, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.