AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1427
Yesterday’s resumption of upmove from last Thursday’s 5-week low at 1.1290 to 1.1445 (New York) signals recent decline from Jan’s 11-week peak at 1.1570 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for marginal gain, however, ‘loss of momentum’ is expected to cap price below res at 1.1491 and yield retreat later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, only below 1.1380/90 indicates temporary top is in place n risks stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1340/50 before prospect of another bounce.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand imports, exports, trade balance, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
Swiss trade balance imports, exports, France consumer confidence,.
U.S. redbook, CS home price, consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jan 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1436
Yesterday’s marginal gain to 1.1451 suggests euro’s upmove from last Thursday’s 5-week trough at 1.1290 would head to 1.1470/75 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum suggests res at 1.1491 would cap upside and yield retreat.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1390 signals temporary top is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1350/55 later.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s Q4 GDP, Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence, import n export price, France’s consumer spending, Italy’s bus. n consumer confidence, then EU’s bus climate, eco. sentiment. industrial, services n consumer sentiment n lastly, Germany inflation data.
AceTraderFx Jan 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1492
Yesterday’s rally above 1.1451 (Wednesday’s top, now sup) to a near 3-week high at 1.1502 after ‘dovish’ FOMC statement and Fed’ chair J. Powell’s comments suggests correction from January’s peak at 1.1570 has ended last week at 1.1290 and gain towards 1.1550 is envisaged after consolidation, reckon 1.1570 should remain intact ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
Only a daily close below 1.1451 signals temporary top has been made, then risk is seen for a stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1406/11.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan industrial production, construction orders, housing starts, Australia export prices, import prices, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide house price, Germany retail sales, unemployment change, unemployment rate, France CPI, Italy GDP, unemployment rate, EU GDP, Canada GDP, producer prices.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE, initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI.
AceTraderFx Feb 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1447
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from January’s 5-week trough at 1.1290 to 1.1515 (Europe) yesterday, subsequent decline to 1.1435 on downbeat comments by ECB’s Weidmann suggests said move has made a temporary top and choppy sideways swings are in store ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report.
As long as 1.1390 holds, one more rise to 1.1540/50 is likely but January’s peak at 1.1570 should cap upside. Below 1.1390 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1340/50 but 1.1310 would remain intact.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, please refer to our EI section for details of EZ eco. releases.
AceTraderFx Feb 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1457
Despite Friday’s rebound from 1.1434 (Asia) to 1.1489 in post-NFP New York session, subsequent softness suggests further choppy trading below Thursday’s 2-1/2 week high at 1.1515 would continue with downside bias, however, reckon 1.1390/00 would contain weakness and bring another rebound.
Above 1.1489 would bring re-test of 1.1515 but 1.1540/50 should cap upside and only below 1.1390 risks stronger retracement to 1.1340/50.
Data to be released later today:
New Zealand building permits, China market holiday, Australia ANZ job ads, building permits.
UK Markit construction PMI, EU Sentix index, producer prices, Italy consumer price, CPI(EU Norm.
U.S. ISM New York index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Feb 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1340
Yesterday’s resumption of decline from last Thursday’s 2-1/2 week high at 1.1515 to 1.1324 (Europe) suggests early correction from January’s 1.1290 bottom has ended there and as long as 1.1380 holds, re-test of 1.1290 would be seen later today or Monday but break needed to extend weakness towards 2018 trough at 1.1216.
Only a daily close above 1.1380 signals low is made, then risk would shift to upside for stronger gain to 1.3401, then 1.1435.
As euro has fallen this week after release of a slew of EZ eco. data, so pay attention to today’s releases starting with German exports n imports, trade balance, current account, then France’s industrial output and non-farm payrolls, n lastly, Italy’s industrial output.
AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1326
Euro’s weakness to 1.1320 (New York) on Friday, then 1.1315 in New Zealand today suggests re-test of previous sup at 1.1290 would be seen after consolidation, a break there would extend recent fall from January’s 1.1570 peak to 1.1267/70, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1245/50.
On the upside, only above 1.1360 signals temporary low has been made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1380/85.
Although no euro area data is due out today, the Eurogroup is meeting on Monday and ECB President Draghi will participate in this meeting. ECB VP Guindos will deliver a speech at a business school in Madrid at 08:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1277
Yesterday’s break of Jan’s 1.1290 low to a 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1267 suggests re-test of 2018 16-month bottom at 1.1216 is on the cards this week after consolidation, however, anticipated loss of downward momentum should keep p[rice above 1.1187.
On the upside, only above 1.1330 signals temporary low has been made, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1360/70 before prospect of another fall later this week.
Although no eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, we have ECB Governing Council member Weidmann speaking at 08:00GMT, then ECB’s policymaker Nowotny speaking at 09:00GMT. The ECOFIN will hold a meeting today, so one can expect EU officials making comments b4 n after the meeting.
AceTraderFx Feb 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1330
Although euro’s rally from Tuesday’s fresh 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1258 to as high as 1.1341 on short covering and usd’s broad-based retreat suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation with near term upside bias is seen for gain to 1.1360, reckon 1.1400/05 should cap present rise and yield decline later this week.
A daily close below 1.1291 would signal correction is over and bring re-test of 1.1258, then towards 2018 bottom at 1.1216.
The only eco. data due out today is EU’s industrial production, traders will buy the euro on dips if readings come in weaker than expectation due to usd’s weakness.
AceTraderFx Feb 14: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Feb 2018 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1265
Euro’s intra-day brief break of Tuesday’s 2-1/2 month low at 1.1258 due to follow-through selling in Australia on renewed usd’s strength in New York session suggests price is en route towards 2018 16-month bottom at 1.1216 (November), a break there would pressure euro towards 1.1185/90 later.
On the upside, only above 1.1300/10 signals temporary low is made and may risk another bounce to 1.1340/44.
Today is GDP day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with unemployment rate, then German Q4 GDP, then EU’s GDP n employment change.
AceTraderFx Feb 15: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Feb 2018 05:30 GMT
Update Time: 15 Feb 2019 00:40 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1291
Although euro’s erratic rise from Thursday’s fresh 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1249 (Reuters) to 1.1310 in New York after downbeat U.S. retail sales data, then 1.1311 (AUS) today suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and range trading with mild upside bias is seen, reckon res at 1.1341/44 should cap intra-day corrective rise and yielded one more.
On the downside, below 1.1249 would extend marginal weakness, however, weakening of downward momentum should keep price above 2018 bottom at 1.1216 and risk has increased for a correction to occur next week.
Data out on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, China PPI, CPI, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization, Italy trade balance, UK retail sales, EU trade balance, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, import prices, export prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1303
Despite the single currency’s fall to a fresh 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1234 on Friday, subsequent rally to 1.1308 the same day suggests recent erratic decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 1.1344, however, over bought condition would keep price well below 1.1380 and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1234 would revive bearishness for weakness towards 2018 trough at 1.1216 (November), break would extend Medium Term decline towards 1.1180 before prospect of a correction.
Since there is no major eco. data due today, traders should keep an eye on Brexit related headlines and eur/gbp cross.
AceTraderFx Feb 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1307
Despite the single currency’s fall to a fresh 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1234 on Friday, subsequent rally to 1.1334 yesterday suggests recent erratic decline has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 1.1344, however, over bought condition would keep price well below 1.1380 and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1234 would revive bearishness for weakness towards 2018 trough at 1.1216 (November), break would extend Medium Term decline towards 1.1180 before prospect of a correction.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU current account, construction output, ZEW economic sentiment, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions.
U.S. NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Feb 20: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Feb 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1341
The single currency’s rally to as high as 1.1357 in New York afternoon yesterday on dollar’s broad-based weakness suggests upmove from Friday’s low at 1.1234 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards 1.1374, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1408 this week and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1275 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness towards 1.1249/51 later.
Data due out on Wednesday :
New Zealand PPi inputs PPI outputs, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, wage price index, Germany producer prices, Swiss industrial production, EU consumer confidence, and U.S. CBI trends survey, MBA mortgage application, redbook, FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Feb 21: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1345
Although price has retreated after yesterday’s rise above Tuesday’s high at 1.1357 to 1.1372 and minor consolidation would be seen before upmove from last Friday’s low at 1.1234 resumes, reckon loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1402 (50% r from 1.1570) and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the downside, below 1.1325 is needed to indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of rise from 1.1234 to 1.1270/80.
There is a slew of data to be released today from the euro region but investors should pay special attention to release of manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany at 08:30GMT.
ECB is also scheduled to release the accounts of its latest monetary policy at 12:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 22: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.3338
Although yesterday’s wild swings suggest further volatile trading below Wednesday’s near 2-week high at 1.1372 would continue, a firm break of 1.1321 sup is needed to signal upmove from last Friday’s 3-month bottom at 1.1234 has made a top and bring stronger retracement towards 1.1275.
Only above 1.1372 yields marginal gain but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1400 and yield decline.
Data due out in European morning, pay attention to release of key German Ifo data, expect selling to emerge if actual readings come in below street forecasts. We have a no. of ECB officials speaking at various venues but pay attention to ECB Presient Drgahi’s speech in Italy at an event at 15:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 25: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1346
Although price has retreated after last Wednesday’s rise to 1.1372 and minor consolidation would be seen before upmove from last February’s low at 1.1234 resumes, reckon loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1402 (50% r from 1.1570) and yield a much-needed correction early next week.
On the downside, below 1.1325 is needed to indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of rise from 1.1234 to 1.1270/80.
Data out today (Monday):
New Zealand retail sales, Japan coincident index, leading economic index, and U.S. Chicago national activity index, wholesale sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.
AceTraderFx Feb 26: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1361
Despite euro’s retreat from last Wednesday’s high at 1.1372 to 1.1316 Friday, subsequent rebound to 1.1371 in Australia today suggests upmove from February’s low at 1.1234 would resume after consolidation and above 1.1372 would extend marginally, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1402 and yield a much-needed correction towards 1.1316, then 1.1275 later this week.
On the upside, above 1.1402 would encourage further gain to 1.1425 but resistance at 1.1442 (61.8% r from 1.1570) would remain intact and yield retreat.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, UK BBA mortgage approvals.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, and Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Feb 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1389
The single currency’s rally to as high as 1.1402 yesterday on usd’s broad-based weakness in New York post dovish comments from Fed’s Chairman Powell suggests erratic rise from February’s trough at 1.1234 has resumed and further gain towards 1.1434/40 would be seen, however, overbought condition would keep price below 1.1497 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1345 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1316 before prospect of rebound.
There is a slew of eco. data to be released from the euro area today. Pay particular attention to the release of EU business climate, economic sentiment and industrial sentiment at 10:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Feb 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1375
Despite euro’ rally to as high as 1.1402 on Wednesday, then marginally higher to 1.1404 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests erratic upmove from February’s low at 1.1234 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1345, then 1.1316, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1275 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1404 would revive bullishness for for gain towards 1.1434/40 before prospect of a correction early next week.
There is a slew of data from the euro area to be released today but attention should be given to Germany’s prelim CPI mm and yy at 13:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.5% and 1.5% vs prev. readings of -0.8% n 1.4% respectively.