AceTraderFx Dec 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1377
Euro’s weakness to 1.1344 yesterday in New York due to broad-based usd’s rebound in reaction to a near 5% jump on Wall Street suggests recent erratic rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a top at last Thursday’s 5-week peak at 1.1486 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1300/10, reckon pivotal sup at 1.1267/70 would remain intact.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1439 (Monday) signals pullback is over and risks another rise towards 1.1486 later.
No euro area eco. data is due out except EU’s economic bulletin, so expect range trading to continue in European morning until NY market opens later in the day.
AceTraderFx Dec 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1444
Although yesterday’s rally from 1.1365 to 1.1455 in New York suggests early retreat from last Thursday’s 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended at 1.1344 (Wednesday), broad outlook remains consolidative and near term o/bot condition should cap price below said res level and yield retreat later today.
On the downside, below 1.1400 would be the 1st signal intra-day top is in place and yields weakness towards 1.1365 but reckon 1.1344 sup should remain intact.
Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. dats starting with Germany’s import price index, then Italy’s unemployment n Germany’s CPI n HICP.
AceTraderFx Dec 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Dec 2018 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1444
Euro’s erratic rise from last week’s low at 1.1344 (Wednesday) to 1.1476 on Fri suggests correction from Dec’s 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended and subsequent retreat in New York session and closure of Japan’s market, then many European centres for New Year’s Eve holiday today would bring subdued trading.
As long as 1.1400/10 holds, upside bias remains for re-test of 1.486 where a break there would extend upmove from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1550 ‘later’ this week.
Only below 1.1400 prolongs volatile sideways swings and risks stronger pullback to 1.1365 but 1.1344 should remain intact.
The only eco. data due out later today in the U.S. is Dallas Fed mfg business index for Dec. Happy New Year !
AceTraderFx Jan 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1453
Although Monday’s gain to 1.1479 in holiday-thinned NY trading indicates early correction from December’s 5-week high at 1.1486 has ended last week at 1.1344, intra-day retreat in Asia suggests range trading is in store and as long as 1.1422 sup holds, re-test of 1.1486, then 1.1500 is envisaged, however, loss of upward momentum should cap euro at 1.1520/25.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1422 would ‘prolong’ recent sideways swings, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1365 but sup at 1.1344 should hold from here.
European markets will re-open today n Wed is PMI day in the euro area countries. Italy will kick off with Markit Dec mfg OMI, followed by the same from France, Germany and then the EU.
AceTraderFx Jan 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1348
Despite yesterday’s anticipated rise to a 7-week peak of 1.1497 ahead of Eurpean open failure to penetrate psychological 1.1500 res and subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1326 in New York, then 1.1310 in Australia today suggests recent corrective rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has ended.
Expect choppy trading with downside bias for further weakness to 1.1267/70 after consolidation and only above 1.1422 dampens bearishness and euro, risks stronger gain to 1.1465/75 later today or tomorrow.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, so traders may take cue from European stock markets’ movement.
AceTraderFx Jan 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1408
Despite yesterday’s initial weakness to 1.1310 ahead of Asian open, subsequent rebound to 1.1411 in New York due to usd’s broad-based weakness on renewed decline in U.S. stocks and treasury yields suggests decline from Wednesday’s 7-week high at 1.1497 has made a low and choppy sideways swings are in store ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data later.
As long as 1.1440/50 holds, another fall is likely, below 1.1338 would bring test of 1.1306/10 sup but break there needed to retain bearishness for weakness towards 1.1267 next week.
Above 1.1450 would risk gain towards 1.1497/00, break would extend upmove from 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1550.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s CPI, Itaky’s Markit services PMI, then the same from Germany, unemployment, Italy’s CPI, EU’s CPI, PPI and Markit services PMI.
AceTraderFx Jan 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1469
Euro’s intra-day rally above last Friday’s 1.1420 high to 1.1484 in New York on Monday due to broad-based usd’s weakness (except vs yen) signals correction from last Wed’s 7-week peak at 1.1497 has ended and re-test of this res is seen after consolidaion, above 1.1500 would encourage for recent erratic rise to head towards next chart obj. at 1.1500.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1420 would ‘prolong’ recent daily choppy swings and risk weakness to 1.1293, then possibly towards 1.1346.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco data starting with Germany’s industrial output, France’s current account, trade balance, import n export price, then we have EU’s business climate, eco., industrial n services sentiment index n consumer confidence index.
AceTraderFx Jan 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1456
Although yesterday’s erratic fall from 1.1485 (Asia) to 1.1422 in New York suggests further choppy trading below last Wednesday’s 7-week peak at 1.1497 would continue, subsequent rebound would bring range trading.
Below 1.1422 would yield stronger retracement of last week’s rise from 1.1310 towards 1.1346 whilst above 1.1468 (European top) would risk gain back towards 1.1485 but only break of 1.1497/00 res would extend Medium Term upmove towards 1.1550 ‘later’ this week.
On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with imports n exports, trade balance n current account, the France’s consumer confidence, Italy’s unemployment, then the same from the EU.
AceTraderFx Jan 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1519
Despite yesterday’s initial marginal gain above previous high to an 11-week peak of 1.1570 in Asia, subsequent stronger-than-expected decline due to broad-based profit taking in euro to a low as 1.1485 in New York afternoon following mildly hawkish comments by Fed’s J. Powell suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top and intra-day rebound would yield range trading.
Below 1.1485 would bring stronger retracement of recent rise from 1.1216 (November) towards 1.1440 whilst above 1.1545 may bring re-test of 1.1570 but break there needed to revive bullishness for resumption of upmove towards 1.1621 next week.
Data to be released on Friday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, New Zealand building permits, Japan household spending, current account, trade balance, Eco. Watchers outlook, Eco. Watchers current.
Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, goods trade balance, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
U.S. CPI, real weekly earnings, trade balance, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Jan 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1468
Fri’s selloff from 1.1540 (Europe) and then break of 1.1485 sup to .1458 in New York morning due to renewed usd’s strength confirms recent upmove from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a temporary top at Thursday’s 11-week high at 1.1570 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1393 before prospect of rebound.
Intra-day recovery from 1.1440 (New Zealand) would bring range trading in Asia and European morning before down and only above 1.1540 signals correction has ended.
Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is very light with EU’s industrail production being the only data due out at 10:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1475
Euro’s initial weakness to 1.1440 (NZ) on Monday signals recent erratic rise from 2018 16-month bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a temporary top at last Thursday’s 11-week peak at 1.1570 and as long as 1.1500 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1422 is envisaged after consolidation, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1393 sup.
A daily close above 1.1500 would be the 1st signal said pullback has ended, then risk is seen for further gain to 1.1540/45.
Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI section for details) but market’s focus is ECB President Draghi’s participation in meeting of the plenary of the European Parliament to mark the 20th anniversary of the euro in Strasbourg at 10:30GMT, then later at 15:00GMT, Draghi will address the EU Parliament, therefore, expect the euro to swing on his comments.
AceTraderFx Jan 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1408
Euro’s anticipated resumption of decline from last Thursday’s 11-week high of 1.1570 to as low as 1.1382 yesterday confirms recent strong rise from 2018 bottom at 1.1216 (November) has made a top there and despite subsequent sterling-led rebound, as long as res at 1.1455 holds, further weakness is likely, however, loss of momentum should keep euro above 1.1346.
A daily close above 1.1455 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement of aforesaid fall towards 1.1491.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany’s CPI n HICP and then Italy will release industrial sales and orders. We have ECB Governing Council Member Nowotny delivering an opening address at a Euromoney conference in Vienna at 08:40GMT, then German EcoMon Atmaier will speak in Berlin at 09:30GMT n later at 17:30GMT, ECB member de Galhau will speak in Paris at 17:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1397
Despite euro’s recovery after yesterday’s marginal weakness to an 11-day low of 1.1377, as long as 1.1455 holds, recent decline from January’s 11-week peak at 1.1570 would head towards 1.1351, loss of downward momentum should keep price above pivotal sup at 1.1310.
Above 1.1455 signals said fall has made a low and risk is seen for stronger subsequent gain to 1.1480/90.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy’s trade bal n global trade balance, then EU’s constriction output, HICP n core HICP. ECB Governing Council Board member Couere will speak sometime during Asian session at the G20 FinMin n central banking governors depuites meeting in Tokyo. ECB’s Lautenschhlager will speak at a conference in Dublin at 11:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1393
Despite euro’s marginal weakness in New York session to a fresh 2-week low of 1.1370 on usd’s gain following positive US/China trade talk news (but later denied), subsequent recovery suggests recent decline from January’s 11-week peak at 1.1570 has possibly made a temporary bottom, above 1.1408 would bring retracement towards 1.1455 but res at 1.1491 should cap upside.
Only below 1.1370 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should limit downside to 1.1341/51 today and yield a long-overdue correction later today or Monday.
Today is the end of the 2-day G20 meeting of central bank deputies in Tokyo, we also have ECB’s Lautenschlager speaking at 11:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1375
Despite euro’s resumption of recent decline from Jan’s 11-week peak of 1.1570 to a fresh 2-week low of 1.1353 in New York Friday due to usd’s strength on market optimism over U.S./China trade talks, loss of downward momentum should keep price above January’s bottom at 1.1310 and bring a long-overdue correction.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1411 signals temporary low has been made and would bring subsequent gain to 1.1450/55 before retreat.
The only eco. data from the euro area countries is Germany’s PPI for Dec. ECB president Draghi n ECB Executive Board member Coeure will participate in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels later.
AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1370
Although euro has swung sideways in lackluster Monday’s session following resumption of recent decline from January’s 11-week peak at 1.1570 to 1.1353, outlook remains mildly bearish for marginal weakness after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price above January’s bottom at 1.1310 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, a daily close above Monday’s 1.1391 high signals temporary low is made and would bring stronger retracement to 1.1427 and possibly towards 1.1455.
ON the eco. dat fornt, Germany will release ZEW sentiment index n current conditions, then the EU will release ZRE eco. sentiment. Today is the ECCOFIN meeting and ECB’s Vice President De Guindos will participate in the meeting.
AceTraderFx Jan 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Jan 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1362
Despite euro’s resumption of recent decline from Jan’s 11-week peak of 1.1570 to 1.1336 in New York morning, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is possibly made and consolidation with upside bias is in store, a firm break above 1.1391 would add credence to this view and bring stronger gain to 1.1427, however, reckon res at 1.1455 should hold.
Only below 1.1336 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Jan’s bottom at 1.1310 and yield an overdue correction of aforesaid fall.
Expect more range trading ahead of Thursday’s key ECB monetary policy announcement n ECB Draghi’s press conference, eurozone eco. calendar is pretty light today with France’s business climate and Italy’s PPI being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Jan 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1388
Euro’s anticipated rebound to 1.1396 (Reuters) yesterday suggests recent decline from Jan’s 11-week peak at 1.1570 has formed a temporary low at 1.1336 (Tuesday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for a stronger retarcement towards 1.1427, near term overbought condition would cap price below res at 1.1455 ahead of ECB monetary policy announcement and ECB Drgahi’s press conference.
On the downside, only below 1.1351 signals correction is over and risks re-test of 1.1336, then weakness to January’s bottom at 1.1310 but reckon daily sup at 1.1267/70 should remain intact.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with Markit January mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany, Italy will release PPI nd trade balance, then followed by EU’s mfg and services PMIs.
AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1307
As yesterday’s intra-day ‘wild’ swings in post-ECB New York session ended with euro’s tanking to a near 6-week trough of 1.1290 due to safe-have usd buying on renewed U.S./China trade tension, suggesting recent decline would pressure price to 1.1260/70 after consolidation, oversold condition is expected to keep price well above 2018 16-month bottom (November) at 1.1216.
On the upside, only above 1.1355/60 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1381 but reckon 1.1411 res should cap upside and yield another fall next week.
Pay attention to release of key Germany’s Ifo business climate n current conditions indexes, if both reading come out weaker than street forecasts, then expect another round of euro bashing to take place.
AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jan 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1413
Friday’s impressive rally from 1.1298 (AUS) to as high as 1.1419 near New York close due to usd’s broad-based weakness on news of an end of recent U.S. govt. shutdown suggests recent decline from Jan’s 11-week peak at 1.1570 has ended earlier at 1.1290 (Thursday) and upside bias remains for gain to 1.1455 after consolidation, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1494.
On the downside, only below 1.1455/60 signals temporary top is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1310/20 but 1.1290 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Monday:
Australia market holiday, U.S. Chicago national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.