AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1226
The single currency’s fall yesterday and break of Wednesday’s low at 1.1242 to 1.1214 suggests decline from last Wednesday’s 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1190/95 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
Pay attention to German employment change and unemployment rate at 08:55GMT. Street forecasts are -10k and 4.9% vs previous readings of -21k and 5.0% respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1227
The single currency’s fall on Friday and break of Thursday’s low at 1.1214 to 1.1210 suggests decline from last Wednesday’s 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1190/95 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
EU will release its final readings on manufacturing PMIs of Italy, France, Germany and EZ. All of them are expected to come in the same as previous reading at 47.7, 49.8, 44.7 and 47.6 respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1206
The single currency’s fall yesterday and break of Friday’s low at 1.1210 suggests decline from last Wednesday’s 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would keep price above aforesaid low and yield a rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
Pay attention to release of EU PPI mm and yy at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.1% and 3.1% vs previous readings of 0.4% and 3.0% respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1216
The single currency’s fall yesterday and break of Friday’s low at 1.1210 to 1.1184 suggests a re-test of March’s 20-montht rough at 1.1177 is forthcoming after consolidation, break would extend marginally, however, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.
There is a slew of services PMIs out from the eurozone today but pay attention to the release of EU retail sales mm and yy at 09:00GMT.
Street forecasts are 0.2% and 2.3% vs previous readings of 1.3% and 2.2% respectively.
AceTraderFx Apr 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1245
Despite the single currency’s fall to 1.1184 on Tuesday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1255 yesterday on the release of upbeat services PMIs from the eurozone suggests decline from March’s peak at 1.1448 has ended there and choppy trading above March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177 would continue with upside bias, however, loss of momentum would cap price at 1.1332 and yield retreat early next week.
On the downside, only below 1.1204 would indicate said recovery is over, risk 1.1184 again, break would extend towards said 1.1177 low.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, France budget balance, U.S. initial jobless claims, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1220
Euro’s intra-day retreat from 1.1247 to 1.1210 in post-NFP trading in New York Friday suggests further choppy trading below last week’s high at 1.1255 (Wednesday) would continue with downside bias, below 1.1206/10 sup would signal early correction from Tuesday’s 3-week low has ended and would yield re-test of March’s 20-month trough at 1.1177.
Only a daily close above 1.1255 risks stronger retracement of early decline from 1.1448 (March high) and brings stronger retracement to 1.1286 but res at 1.1327/32 should hold.
On the data front, we have Germany’s imports, exports, trade balance n current current, then followed by EU Sentix investor confidence index.
Also, we have ECB Governing Council member Nowotny speaking at a conference in Vienna at 07:30GMT, then later ECB’s Villeroy will speak at a conference in Paris at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1275
Although yesterday’s rally above last week’s 1.1255 high to 1.1275 due to broad-based euro buying on short covering ahead of Wednesday’s key ECB monetary policy meeting confirms recent decline from March’s 1.1448 peak has made a temporary low at 1.1184 and as long as 1.1206/10 sup holds, stronger retracement of said fall is envisaged, near term overbought condition would cap price at 1.1332.
Below 1.1206 any time signals recovery is over and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 2019 bottom at 1.1177 (March).
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Swiss unemployment rate, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Apr 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1262
Euro’s intra-day retreat from Tuesday’s near 2-week high at 1.1285 would bring initial consolidation ahead of key ECB monetary policy meeting, as long as 1.1245/55 holds, upmove from 1.1184 would yield marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1332 and yield retreat.
On then downside, a break of 1.1206/10 sup (ECB’s dovish hold perhaps) signals correction over and risk is seen for weakness to 1.1184, then re-test of 2019 20-month bottom at 1.1177 March).
On the eco. data front, we have France’s industrial output, then the same from Italy.
The EU is having a special meeting of the European Council (Article 50) on Brexit starting at 17:00GMT and this will continue into a working meeting.
AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1277
Despite euro’s brief but sharp retreat from yesterday’s 2-week high of 1.1288 to 1.1230 after dovish comments by ECB’s Draghi, subsequent strong bounce to 1.1280 following release of dovish FOMC minutes suggests upside bias remains for recent erratic rise from 1.1184 to extend marginal gain, ‘loss of upward momentum’ should cap price below res at 1.1332.
On the downside, below 1.1230 any way signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1206/10, then later towards 1.1184.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, China PPI, CPI, Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI, and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1283
Although euro has risen after yesterday’s fresh 2-week high of 1.1289 to 1.1292 in Asia, suggesting recent erratic upmove from April’s 1.1184 bottom remains in force, ‘loss of upward momentum’ should prevent strong gain above 1.1300 today and reckon previous res at 1.1327/32 should cap intra-day gain and bring strong retreat of aforesaid rise.
On the downside, below 1.1250 (New York low) would be 1st signal temporary top is made and would yield weakness to 1.1230, then 1.1206/10.
On the data front, Germany will release Mar wholesale price index n then EU’s industrial production. We have several ECB officials participating in the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washinghton D.C., please refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1308
Euro’s resumption of recent upmove from April’s 1.1184 low to a 2-week high of 1.1325 due to active eur/yen demand suggests said rise would head to 1.1375 after consolidation, loss of momentum is expected to cap price at 1.1400 this week and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1270/80 signals top is in place, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1250 and later 1.1230.
There is no eco. data due out from the euro area countries n no EZ officials are scheduled to speak, therefore, funds flow (more eur/yen buying perhaps) will dominate intra-day price swings.
AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1305
Although yesterday’s retreat from 1.1321 to 1.1298 in lackluster Monday’s session suggests further sideways swings below Fri’s 2-week high at 1.1325 would continue, as long as 1.1280/90 holds, recent erratic rise from 1.1184 would head to 1.1375, loss of upward momentum should cap price below minor res at 1.1392.
Below 1.1280 signals aforesaid rise has made a temporary top, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1250 and later 1.1230.
ON the eco. data, Germany will kick off with ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions for April, then we have EU’s constriction output and ZEW eco. sentiment index. ECB’s Nowotny will speak in New York at an event at 13:50GMT.
1 Like
AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1282
Euro’s intra-day brief breach of Tuesday’s 1.1280 low (Europe) suggests recent upmove from 1.1184 has made a temporary top at Fri’s 2-week high at 1.1325, however, firm break below 1.1270 needed to bring stronger retracement of said move to 1.1250, then later 1.1230, however, reckon 1.1200/10 should remain intact this week.
Above 1.1314 would signal pullback has ended, then price would head to 1.1365/75 before correction occurs due to loss of upward momentum.
On the data front, Italy will kick off with Mar CPI, then EU’s current account, Italy’s trade balance n followed by EU’s trade balance n HICP.
AceTraderFx Apr 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1292
Despite yesterday’s intra-day rebound from 1.1279 (Australia) to session highs of 1.1324 in European morning, failure to penetrate last Friday’s 2-week peak at 1.1325 has led to profit taking in New York and 1.1275/79 needs to hold for recent upmove from Aprl’s 1.1184 bottom to head to 1.1375, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1400 this week.
A daily close below 1.1279 signals said rise has made a temporary top, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1230, however, reckon 1.1200/10 should remain intact.
Today is PMI day in the EZ, Germany will kick off with PPI, France will release Markit mfg and servcies PMIs, then the same from Germany and the the EU, Italy will later finish off with industrial order and industrial sales.
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1252
Although euro’s selloff last Thursday due to downside German and EZ PMI data to a 1-week low of 1.1227 suggests early correction from April’s 1.1184 bottom has ended at 1.1325, subsequent sideways swings in holiday-thinned Easter Friday and Monday sessions signals range trading would continue until European markets re-open from Easter break.
As 1.1263 (New York high Monday) has capped recovery, bearishness is retained but only below 1.1184 needed to bring re-test of 2019 20-month trough at 1.1177 (Mar).
Only above 1.1279/80 (previous sup, now res) would ‘prolong’ choppy consolidation and may risk another rise to 1.1300/10.
Although all major European centre will re-open today after the long Easter holiday break, eco. calendar in the EZ is very thin with EU consumer confidence for Apr being the only data which is due out pretty later in the day at 14:00GMT, so funds flow may have a greater impact on intra-day price swings.
AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1217
Despite yesterday’s expected resumption of recent decline from Apr’s 1.1325 to a near 3-week low of 1.1192 due to renewed usd’s strength in New York morning, failure to re-test Apr’s 1.1184 trough and subsequent rebound to 1.1231 (Australia) suggests initial choppy range trading is in store.
Above 1.1231/36 may risk stronger retracement to 1.1262/63 but 1.3104 should cap upside whilst below 1.1192 would yield re-test of 2019 bottom at 1.1177, break would head to 1.1125/30.
On the eco. data front, France will kick off with business climate, then pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, current conditions n expectations, then lastly, Italy’s trade balance.
AceTraderFx Apr 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1148
Yesterday’s break of previous 2019 low at 1.1177 (March) to a 22-month trough of 1.1141 after 7 weeks of broad sideways swings suggests medium-term downtrend has finally resumed and price is en route towards next projected downside target at 1.1054 next week.
Today, reckon 1.1200/10 would hold and yield weakness to 1.1100/10 before prospect of a minor correction later.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia market holiday, New Zealand market holiday, Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision, UK CBI trends survey, U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, initial jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1132
Although euro’s recovery in New York session after hitting a fresh 22-month trough at 1.1118 to 1.1154 on short covering suggests initial range trading is in store ahead of release of key U.S. GDP data, as long as 1.1177 (previous 2019 low, now res) holds, medium-term downtrend should head to 1.1085/90 after consolidation, ‘loss of downward momentum’ is expected to keep price above projected sup at 1.1054.
Only a daily close above 1.1177 confirms temporary low has been made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.12320/30 before prospect of retreat.
Bo euro area eco. data is due out today, however, ECB Governing Council member will deliver a speech at Finnish central bank seminar in Helsinki at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1149
Although Friday’s rebound from a fresh 22-month trough at 1.1112 to 1.1174 in New York on short-covering after robust U.S. GDP but soft inflation data suggests recent downtrend has made a minor low and consolidation is in store initially, as long as 1.1174/77 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1112 would extend marginal weakness, loss of momentum should limit weakness to 1.1080/90.
Only a daily close above 1.0177 (previous 2019 low in March) signals temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1220/30 later this week.
Data to be released later today:
Japan market holiday, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, and U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Friday’s 22-month bottom at 1.1112 to a 12-day high at 1.1265 after Fed’s unchanged rate decision, intra-day selloff to 1.0189 due to usd’s broad-based rally following Fed J. Powell’s less dovish comments signals 1st leg of correction is over and choppy consolidation with downside bias is seen ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
As long as 1.1230 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1141/46 is likely before rebound.
Only a daily close above 1.1230 risks re-test of 1.1265 but loss of momentum should cap euro well below 1.1300.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales, Italy’s Markit mfg PMI, then the same data from France, Germany and the EU. French and German FinMins will address a press conference in Paris at 09:30GMT, then later ECB board member Jens Weidmann and ECB executive board member and chief economist Peter Praet will speak at 17:30GMT.