AceTraderFx Jun 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1179
Euro’s intra-day gain to 1.1181 on Friday due to broad-based weakness in usd on falling U.S. yields and stocks suggests further choppy trading above May’s 2-year bottom at 1.1108 would continue with upside bias for stronger gain to 1.1215/25.
However, break there is needed to retain bullishness for subsequent headway to 1.1240/50.
Only a daily close below 1.1138 (New York low) dampens bullish view and risks weakness towards 1.1116 but 1.1108 should remain intact.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France, Germany and the EU, if these PMI readings come out higher than market estimates, then euro will extend Friday’s gain, if not, expect a minor pullback before prospect of another rise later in the day.
AceTraderFx Jun 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1248
Euro’s rally from 1.1160 (Europe) to 1.1162 due to dovish comments by Fed’s Bullard in New York afternoon confirms Medium Term downtrend has made a temporary low at May’s 22-month bottom at 1.1108 and as long as 1.1215/25 (previous res, now sup) holds, re-test of May’s 1.1265 would be forthcoming next, break would extend to 1.1300/04, overbought condition should cap price at 1.1325 today.
Only below 1.1215 signals temporary top is in place, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1190, then 1.1157/60.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand trade balance, import prices, export prices, Australia current account, retail sales, RBA rate decision, France budget balance, Italy unemployment rate, UK BRC retail sales, construction PMI, EU HICP, core HICP, unemployment rate, U.S. redbook retail sales, ISM NY index, durable goods and factory orders.
AceTraderFx Jun 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1264
Euro’s intra-day firmness in Asia following retreat from Tuesday’s 1-month high at 1.1277 (Europe) to 1.1227 in New York suggests pullback has ended and recent upmove would head to 1.1300/04 after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 1.1325 and risk has increased for a much-needed correction to occur later today or tomorrow.
A daily close below 1.1227 signals 1st leg of correction from 1.1108 has ended and yields weakness to 1.1157/60.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with Martkit services PMI, then the same from France and Germany, the EU will release PPI and retail sales.sed by professionals and real-time updates
AceTraderFx Jun 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1226
Despite Wed’s anticipated resumption of recent upmove from 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 (May) to a 1-month high of 1.1306 at New York open after weak U.S. ADP private payrolls data, subsequent decline to as low as 1.1220 near New York close due to broad-based usd’s rally on short covering signals temporary top has been made and downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1160/70.
Only above 1.1306 risks marginal gain to 1.1325, loss of momentum should cap price at 1.1345/50 and yield decline.
Ahead of ECB’s rate decision and post-ECB press conference, the euro area will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Jun 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1312
Euro’s intra-day retreat due to usd’s broad-based recovery in Asia following Fri’s rally to a 10-week high of 1.1347 suggests range trading is in store before prospect of marginal gain, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1385/95.
A firm break below 1.1300 would be the first signal temporary top is made, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement towards 1.1252 later.
Italy is open today and will release industrial output. We also have ECB Vice President Guindos speaking at a business forum in Madrid at 12:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1312
Euro’s intra-day retreat due to usd’s broad-based recovery in Asia following Friday’s rally to a 10-week high of 1.1347 suggests range trading is in store before prospect of marginal gain, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1385/95.
A firm break below 1.1300 would be the first signal temporary top is made, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement towards 1.1252 later.
Italy is open today and will release industrial output. We also have ECB Vice President Guindos speaking at a business forum in Madrid at 12:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1330
Euro’s rebound to 1.1337 (New York) yesterday suggests early correction from last Friday’s 10-week high at 1.1347 has ended at 1.1291 (Monday) and upside bias remains for recent upmove to head marginally above said res, however, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price at 1.1400.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1291 confirms temporary top is made and risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement towards 1.1252.
Economic calendar in the euro area is very thin with France’s non-farm payrolls being the only data due out today.
We have a number of ECB officials speaking today starting with ECB President Draghi making welcoming address at an ECB conference in Frankfurt at 08:15GMT, then ECB Vice President speaking at the same event at 09:00GMT, then later ECB’s Coeure at 12:15GMT n then 15:00GMT.
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AceTraderFx Jun 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1296
Despite yesterday’s initial firmness and intra-day gain to 1.1343 (Europe), failure to re-test Jun’s 10-week high at 1.1347 and subsequent selloff to 1.1283 as the greenback caught a bid in New York session suggests further choppy trading below said res level would continue with near term downside bias, oversold condition is likely to keep price above sup at 1.1252 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.
Above 1.1347 needed to extend recent upmove to 1.1378/83 whilst a daily close below 1.1252 would risk stronger retracement twd 1.1203.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, Swiss producer/import price, EU industrial production, U.S. import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Jun 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1280
Although euro’s decline from last Friday’s post-NFP 10-week high at 1.1347 to as low as 1.1269 yesterday confirms recent upmove has made a temporary top there, loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1252 and bring rebound later, a firm break above 1.1303/08 res would signal pullback has ended and would head back towards said Jun’s high next week.
Only a daily close below 1.1252 sup would risk stronger correction towards 1.1203 before prospect of rebound.
Today is the meeting of the ECOFIN in Luxembourg, so one can expect comments from EU officials. On the data front, Germany will kick off with wholesale price index, then France’s CPI. Italy’s industrial orders, industrial sales and CPI.
We have ECB’s Lautenschlager and Enria speaking during Euroepan morning.
AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1220
Euro’s selloff in New York session to 1.1203 on Fri due to renewed usd’s broad-based strength following decent U.S. retail sales data strongly suggests correction from May’s 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has ended at 1.1347 and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.1157/60.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1269 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and may head back to 1.1303/08 later.
Although no eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, pay attention to comments from ECB officials where some of them are attending the 3-day ECB Forum on Central Banking 2019 in Sintra, Portugal. ECB President Draghi will make an opening speech at 17:00GMT later today and then at 08:00GMT Tuesday.
AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2019 05:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1224
Euro’s decline from Jun’s 1.1347 high to a 1-week low at 1.1203 last Friday suggests early correction from May’s 22-month trough at 1.1108 has ended and as price has retreated after Monday’s recovery to 1.1246 in New York, bearishness is retained for weakness to 1.1157/60, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1108 ahead of Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday.
Only above 1.1269 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and may risk another rise to 1.1303/08 later.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pay attention to Germany’s ZEW eco. sentiment n current conditions, then EU’s rate balance, final HICP n core HICP as well as ZEW eco. sentiment. Also, keep an eye out for comments by ECB officials - Draghi, De Guindos and Lane who are attending at ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal.
AceTraderFx Jun 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1195
Yesterday’s decline to a 2-week low of 1.1182 after dovish comments by ECB’s Draghi suggests early correction from May’s 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has ended earlier at 1.1347 and subsequent eur-yen cross inspired recovery in New York morning would bring consolidation before further weakness to 1.1155/60, however,’ loss of downward momentum’ should keep price well above 1.1108.
Only a daily close above 1.1246 (dovish Fed statement perhaps) signals temporary low is in place and risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.1285/89.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (see our EI page for details, we also have ECB officials and EU President Juncker speaking on the last day of ECB forum in Sintra, so keep a eye out for more comments from Draghi.
AceTraderFx Jun 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1266
Yesterday’s rally in post-FOMC New York trading to 1.1254 and intra-day break above this level in Asia due to renewed usd’s weakness suggests recent decline has made a low at Tuesday’s 2-week trough at 1.1182 and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain, however, near term overbought condition should cap euro at 1.1303/08 and yield retreat later today or tomorrow.
On the downside, below 1.1221/25 would be the first signal top is made, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1200/01, then 1.1182/88.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision, all industry activity index.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, France GDP, UK retail sales, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases.
U.S. current account, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, Canada ADP employment change, and EU consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1299
Euro’s continuation of Wed’s post-FOMC rally to 1.1317 yesterday’s suggests early decline from June’s 1.1247 peak has ended at 1.1182 (Tuesday) and re-test of this res is envisaged after consolidation, loss of upward momentum is expected to limit gain to 1.1378 and yield correction later today or Monday.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1254 signals temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1212/21 area.
Data to be released on Friday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan national CPI, Nikkei manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR, Canada retail sales, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1381
Euro’s anticipated rally above previous Jun’s 1.1347 high to a 3-month peak of 1.1377 in New York session due to continued usd’s weakness suggests recent upmove would head to 1.1400/10 after consolidation, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.1448.
On the downside, only below 1.1317 indicates temporary top has been made, then risk is seen for a stronger retracement towards 1.1284 before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released later:
Japan coincident index, leading economic index, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, and U.S. Chicago national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1405
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent upmove to a fresh 3-month high of 1.1403 in New York due to continued usd’s weakness, near term loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain and reckon res at 1.1448 (March high) would cap present rise and yield a much-needed minor correction later today or tomorrow.
On the downside, below 1.1373 would be the 1st signal temporary top is in place and may yield retracement towards 1.1347 before rebound.
On the data front, euro area eco. calendar is pretty light today with France’s business climate being the only data due out.
ECB’s VP Guindos will speak at an event organised by Italian Banking Association in Rome at 07:15GMT, then later ECB’s Coeure will speak at a dinner event organised by ISDA in Frankfurt at 17:15GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1360
Despite resumption of recent upmove to a fresh 3-month peak of 1.1412 in Asia, subsequent strong retreat to as low as 1.1345 after comments by Fed officials dampened market expectation of aggressive rate cuts suggests long-awaited correction of medium-term rise from 1.1108 (May) has taken place and 1-2 days of volatile trading is seen, reckon 1.1317 would contain weakness and bring rebound.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1398 (NY high Tue) signals pullback is over and would head towards next daily chart target at 1.1448 later this week.
Economic calendar is pretty thin in the euro area countries n Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence is the only data due out at 06:00GMT. ECB’s Governing Council member will be speaking at a legal conference in Frankfurt at 09:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1371
Although euro’s decline from Tuesday’s fresh 3-month high of 1.1412 to 1.1345 suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, yesterday’s sideways trading indicates consolidation would continue initially today and as long as 1.1317 (previous res, now sup) holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.1448.
Only below 1.1317 would risk stronger retracement of medium term rise from 2019 bottom at 1.1108 (May) to 1.1285/90.
On the data front, the euro area will release a slew of economic data (please refer to our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Jun 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1367
Although euro has swung broadly sideways in last 2 sessions following early decline from Tuesday’s fresh 3-month peak of 1.1412 to 1.1345 and initial range trading is envisaged, as long as 1.1317 (previous res, now sup) holds, recent upmove is likely to resume, however, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price below daily res at 1.1448.
A daily close below 1.1317 may risk ‘stronger’ correction of the upmove from 2019 bottom at 1.1108 (May) to 1.1260/70 before prospect of rebound next week.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our E.I. page for details. ECB ececutive board member Lautenschlager will give introductory remarks at an event in Frankfurt at 07:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jul 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Jul 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1285
Euro’s stronger-than-expected decline after intra-day penetration of last week’s 1.1345 trough to as low as 1.1282 in New York due to broad-based strength is usd suggests recent upmove from 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1108 has made a top at 1.1412 last week (Tue) and further weakness to 1.1220/25 may be seen before prospect of rebound later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1345 signals euro’s pullback has ended, then price may head back to 1.1383/93.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales, then France’s budget balance n EU’s producer prices. Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot and Lithuanian central bank governor Vitas Vasiliauskas, both ECB members will speak in Vilnius. They will also speak at a joint press conference at 08:30GMT.