AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1072
Although euro’s rally from yesterday’s fresh 2-year trough at 1.1028 (Europe) to 1.1195 in New York led by selloff in usd/yen suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and choppy sideways trading is in store ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report, as long as 1.1102/08 (previous sup area, now res) holds, downside bias remains but only below 1.1100 needed to extend weakness towards 1.0975.
A daily close above 1.1108 would risk stronger correction to 1.1130/35, then possibly towards 1.1162 early next week.
The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data starting with Italy’s industrial output, retail sales, then EU’s PPI and retail sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1115
Despite euro’s resumption of MT decline to a 26-month trough at 1.1028 Thursday, subsequent rally to 1.1116 in post-NFP on
Friday suggests temporary bottom made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement towards 1.1162 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1061 would indicate recovery has ended instead, risk weakness towards 1.1028/34.
Data to be released today:
Australia AIG services index, AZN job ads, Japan services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Swiss consumer confidence, retail sales, France non-farm payrolls, industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services, sentix index.
U.S. Markit services, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and Canada market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1230
Euro’s rally to 1.1212 in New York on Monday due to continued usd’s weakness and intra-day break above said res to 1.1249 at Asian open suggests medium term decline has made a temporary low at last Thursday’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 and further gain towards 1.1285 would be seen after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 1.1167 may risk weakness to 1.1132 before prospect of rebound.
Economic calendar is quite light today with Germany industrial order followed by France non-farm payrolls and industrial output.
AceTraderFx Aug 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1208
Although euro’s resumption of upmove from last Thursday’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 to 1.1249 on Tue suggests recent decline has made a temporary bottom, subsequent retreat to 1.1168 signals first leg of correction has ended and would bring range trading before price head towards 1.1285 later.
On the downside, only below 1.1162/68 would risk retracement to 1.1139 (50% r) before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, import, export, U.K. Halifax house prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage app and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Aug 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1209
Although euro’s retreat from yesterday’s 1.1241 high suggests choppy trading below Tuesday’s 2-week top at 1.1249 would continue before recent upmove from last Thursday’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 resumes and extend towards 1.1285, reckon 1.1345/49 should hold and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1162/68 would risk weakness towards 1.1132/35.
Although no eco. data is due out from the euro area countries today, the EU will publish the Economic Bulletin which is released two weeks after each Governing Council meeting.
Same sentiments here, roughly.
Aim to average around 1.115 (quote 1.1185, a 0.3% difference) with a target of 1.121 in mind (a 0.5% difference), if this fits in.
AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1191
Euro’s daily swings in last few sessions after hitting a 2-week high of 1.1249 (Tuesday) are expected to continue and as long as 1.1168 (reaction low) holds, recent upmove from Aug’s 2-year bottom at 1.1028 would head towards next daily target at 1.1285 after consolidation.
Only a daily close below 1.1168 signals first leg of correction has ended, then risk would shift to downside for a stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1130/35, however, reckon 1.1100/05 would remain intact.
The euro area countries will release a slew of economic data during European morning, please refer to our economic indicator section for details.
AceTraderFx Aug 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1204
Despite last Fri’s intra-day erratic rise to 1.1222 in New York due to cross-buying in euro especially vs sterling, subsequent retreat suggests the daily wild swings from last Tuesday’s 2-week high at 1.1249 would continue, as long as 1.1168 (reaction low) holds, early upmove from August’s fresh 2-year trough at 1.1028 would extend marginal gain, loss of momentum is likely to limit upside to 1.1285.
Only a daily close below 1.1168 signals 1st leg of correction has ended, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 1.1110/20 before prospect of rebound later this week.
On the data front, no economic data is due out from the euro area countries and no speeches by ECB officials, so one can expect a quiet start in Europe too.
AceTraderFx Aug 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1206
Euro’s rebound from 1.1163 in Europe to 1.1230 (New York) yesterday suggests early pullback from last Wednesday’s 2-week high at 1.1249 has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1249 would extend recent upmove from August’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 towards 1.1285 which may hold on first testing.
On the downside, only below 1.1163 would risk stronger retracement towards 1.1132/35.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan corp goods price, tertiary industry index, machine tools orders, Australia NAB business condition.
Germany wholesale price index, CPI, HICP final, ZEW economic sentiment, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, redbook weekly earnings, redbook retail sales.
AceTraderFx Aug 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1176
Euro’s daily wild swings this week suggests further choppy trading below Aug’s 1.1249 high would continue and yesterday’s usd rally vs G4 currencies suggests downside bias remains and below Mon’s 1.1163 low would bring stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.1132/35, oversold condition would keep price above 1.1103.
Only above 1.1249 would extend upmove from August’s fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 towards 1.1285 later this week.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with France’s unemployment, Germany’s prel. Q2 GDP, France’s CPI and then EU’s employment change, Q2 GDP and industrial production.
AceTraderFx Aug 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1191
Euro’s daily swings in last few sessions after hitting a 2-week high of 1.1249 (Tuesday) are expected to continue and as long as 1.1168 (reaction low) holds, recent upmove from August’s 2-year bottom at 1.1028 would head towards next daily target at 1.1285 after consolidation.
Only a daily close below 1.1168 signals first leg of correction has ended, then risk would shift to downside for a stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1130/35, however, reckon 1.1100/05 would remain intact.
The euro area countries will release a slew of economic data during European morning, please refer to our economic indicator section for details.
AceTraderFx Aug 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1098
Despite euro’s selloff from 1.1158 on Thursday due to dovish comments from ECB’s Rehn and then break of 1.1131 support to 1.1092 in New York suggests correction from August’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 has ended earlier at 1.1249, loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1061/71 and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 1.1131 would yield retracement to 1.1158/63 before prospect of another fall.
Economic calendar from the euro area countries is very thin today with the EU’s trade balance being the only data due out at 09:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Aug 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1090
Euro’s last week’s decline from 1.1230 to as low as 1.1067 on Friday suggests correction from August’s fresh 2-year trough at 1.1028 has ended earlier at 1.1249 and subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.1106 in New York would bring consolidation before another fall, however, loss of momentum should keep price well above said 2019 bottom.
Only a daily close above 1.1131 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but 1.1190 should cap upside.
On the data front, the EU will release a slew of data starting with current account, HICP and core HICP.
AceTraderFx Aug 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
Euro’s fall from 1.1113 (Europe) yesterday to 1.1077 as the greenback regained traction in New York session suggests recovery from Friday’s 2-week low at 1.1067 has ended and recent decline would head to 1.1040/50 after consolidation, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above Aug’s fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.
Only a daily close above 1.1113 signals temporary low is made and risk stronger retracement of recent erratic fall from 1.1249 to 1.1158, break, 1.1180/90.
Data to be released Tuesday:
Germany PPI, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU construction output, UK CBI trend order.
Canada manufacturing sales and U.S. redbook, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business outlook survey.
AceTraderFx Aug 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2019 06:00 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1095
Although yesterday’s rebound after falling one tick below last Fri’s 1.1067 low to a 2-1/2 week trough of 1.1066 suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary bottom and initial range trading is envisaged, as long as 1.1131 holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price above Aug’s fresh 2-year low at 1.1028.
A daily close above 1.1131 would shift risk to the upside for stronger retracement of aforesaid fall to 1.1158, then later 1.1180/90.
No economic data is due out from the euro area countries, so order flows or news headlines will have greater influence on price moves. U.K. PM Johnson will meet with German Chancellor Merkel for Brexit talk later today, so one can expect eur/gbp cross to swing around on Brexit news.
AceTraderFx Aug 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1088
Although euro’s rebound from Tuesday’s 2-week low at 1.1066 to 1.1107 yesterday suggests recent decline from 1.1249 has made a temporary low and range trading is expected, as long as 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) holds, marginal weakness is likely, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above August’s 2-year bottom at 1.1028 and yield strong retracement of aforesaid fall later.
Only above 1.1131 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1158/63 but reckon 1.1190 should remain intact.
On the data front, today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pay attention to release of France’s Markit preliminary mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany and the EU.
Then ECB minutes at 12:30GMT and later consumer confidence at 14:00GMT. We also have ECB’s ECB’s Coeure, Lane and Lautenschlager speaking at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.
AceTraderFx Aug 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1081
Despite yesterday’s cable-led brief bounce from a near 3-week low at 1.1064, as long as this week’s high at 1.1113 (Tuesday) holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards August’s 2-year bottom at 1.1028 (less dovish speech at Jackson Hole by Fed’s Powell perhaps), a break there needed to extend recent downtrend to next projected downside target at 1.0975 next week.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1131 (previous sup, now res) confirms temporary low is made and risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement to 1.1158, then 1.1180/90.
After yesterday’s data dump on euro area’s PMIs, no economic data is due out, so all eyes are on J. Powell’s speech.
AceTraderFx Aug 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1144
Despite euro’s fall to a 3-week bottom at 1.1052 on Fri, subsequent rally to 1.1153 in New York on escalation in U.S.-China trade war, then to 1.1164 today suggests volatile trading above August’s 26-month trough at 1.1028 would continue with upside bias.
On the downside, only below 1.1099 would risk weakness to 1.1064/67 before prospect of rebound.
Today is the final day of the 3-day G7 leaders’ summit in France. On the data front, pay attention to release of key German Ifo business climate, current conditions and expectations, street forecasts are looking for weaker readings from previous readings due to recent recessions fears in Germany, however, euro bulls should buy eur/usd on dips.
AceTraderFx Aug 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2019 05:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1103
Although euro’s impressive rally from 1.1052 to 1.1153 last Fri in New York session suggests further volatile trading above August’s 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, yesterday’s decline from 1.1164 to 1.1095 on easing of Sino-U.S. tensions signal choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.1064/67 sup would contain weakness and bring rebound.
On the upside, only above 1.1164 would extend said near term rise marginally higher, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1200/10.
On the data front, Germany will release Q2 GDP n then France will release business climate n consumer confidence, if actual reading come in weaker than street forecast, expect euro to come under renewed selling but downside is likely to be limited. ECB’s Vice-President de Guindos will make a speech at the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. in Manchester, U.K. at 13:00GMT.