AceTraderFx Aug 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 201905:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1091
Euro’s decline from 1.1164 (Mon) to 1.1087 yesterday due to selling in eur/gbp cross suggests near term upmove from Friday’s 3-week trough at 1.1052 has made a top there and consolidation with initial downside bias is seen, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1064/67 and bring rebound.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.1115 signals pullback from 1.1164 is over and may head back towards said res level later this week.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with GfK consumer confidence and import prices, then Italy’s business and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Aug 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Aug 201905:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1086
Euro’s impressive rally from 1.1052 last Friday to as high as 1.1164 on Monday suggests further volatile trading above August’s 26-month bottom at 1.1028 would continue, despite subsequent strong retreat, as 1.1074 has contained weakness yesterday, consolidation with upside bias is retained, above 1.1115 may head back towards 1.1164.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1074 dampens mildly bullish outlook and risks decline towards 1.1052, break would yield weakness to 1.1028.
On the economic calendar, the euro area countries will release a raft of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Aug 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Aug 201905:30 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1053
Euro’s break of last week’s 1.1052 low to a 4-week trough at 1.1043 in New York on Thursday due to renewed usd’s strength on easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions suggests re-test of August’s fresh 2-year bottom at 1.1028 would be forthcoming after initial consolidation, a break there would extend recent downtrend towards next projected downside target at 1.0975.
On the upside, only a move back above 1.1092/98 res prolongs recent ‘volatile’ broad sideways swings and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1130/40 next week.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand building permits, UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide hose price, Japan Tokyo CPI, Tokyo core CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, housing starts, construction orders, Australia building permits.
Germany retail sales, France budget balance, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, GDP, EU HICP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, core PCE price index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices.
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AceTraderFx Sept 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0988
Euro’s selloff on Friday and then break of previous August’s 1.1028 low (now res) to a fresh 27-month trough at 1.0964 (New York) suggests medium term decline has once again resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before price heads toward 1.0935, however, oversold condition should keep the pair above 1.0900/10.
On the upside, only above 1.1028 would indicate temporary trough made and yield stronger retracement to 1.1060, then 1.1092.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU. We have several ECB officials schedued to speak at the ECB Legal Conference 2019 “Building bridges- central banking law in an interconnected world” in Frankfurt, please refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Sept 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0957
Despite resumption of downtrend marginally to a fresh 27-month trough of 1.0958 in European morning yesterday, near term loss of downward momentum is expected to prevent steep fall and reckon 1.0900/10 would remain intact and bring minor correction before prospect of further decline later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1028 (prev. Aug’s low, now res) signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1060 before retreat.
On the data front, the EU will release July PPI and ECB’s nominated President Largarde will speak at 07:00GMT, then ECB’s Enria will speak at ECB’s Legal Conference at 11:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 201906:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0976
Although euro’s rebound from Tuesday’s fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 to 1.0978 in New York due to falling U.S. yields and downbeat U.S. factory data suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1028 (previous sup, now res) holds, one more fall to 1.0900/10 is likely before prospect of correction due to loss of downward momentum.
On the upside, only above 1.1028 confirms long-awaited retarcement has taken place, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger gain to 1.1050/60 later this week.
On the data front, France will kick off with Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU, then EU’s retail sales.
We also have a number of ECB officials speaking in European morning and later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Sept 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1035
Euro’s rally above 1.1028 to 1.1038 yesterday due to continued usd’s weakness suggests recent downtrend has made a low at Tuesday’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 and as long as 1.0978 (Tuesday’s high, now sup) holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1092 is now envisaged, however, overbought condition should cap price below 1.1112 ahead of release of Fri’s key U.S. jobs data.
On the downside, only below 1.0998 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk retracement towards 1.0978 before prospect of another rise.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Swiss GDP, Germany industrial orders and U.S. ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, labour costs prelim, productivity prelim, Markit manufacturing PMI, durable ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durable ex-transport, ISM manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1034
Although euro’s impressive rally from Tuesday’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 to a near 1-week high of 1.1084 yesterday suggests long-awaited retracement of recent downtrend has taken place, subsequent retreat would bring sideways swings ahead of release of key U.S. jobs data later today.
As long as 1.1000/10 holds, upside bias remains for gain to 1.1115/20 but 1.1164 should cap this week’s rise. A daily close below 1.1000 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risks weakness to 1.0965/70 but 1.0927 should hold.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output, then France’s current account, imports n exports, Italy’s retail sales, then EU’s employment n Q2 GDP.
AceTraderFx Sept 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1017
Although Friday’s weakness to 1.1021 (Europe) then intra-day break below there suggests euro’s upmove from last Tuesday’s 27-month trough at 1.0927 has made a temporary top at 1.1084 (Thursday) and consolidation with downside bias, near term oversold condition would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.0998 (previous res, now sup) would contain weakness and bring rebound, above 1.1056 (post-NFP high) would yield re-test of 1.1084.
A daily close below 1.0998 would risk stronger retracement of said upmove towards 1.0978 before prospect of recovery later this week.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with exports, imports, trade balance and current account, then later EU will release Sentix investor sentiment. ECB’s Hakkarainen will speak at a financial law seminar in Helsinki at 12:20GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1045
Although yesterday’s strong bounce from 1.1016 (Asia) to 1.1067 in New York suggests euro’s pullback from last week’s high at 1.1084 (Thursday) has ended, subsequent retreat due to broad-based usd’s strength suggests further sideways swings are in store before upmove from Sep’s 27-month bottom resumes, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.1115.
Only a daily close below 1.1116 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger retracement of said rise towards 1.0978 later this week.
On the data front, France will kick off with non-farm payrolls, industrial output, then the same from Italy.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1045
Although euro’s sideways swings after early retreat from last week’s high at 1.1084 t 1.1016 (Monday) are likely to continue, possibly until ECB’s rate decision on Thursday, as long as 1.1016 holds, recent upmove from September’s 27-month trough would head towards next chart objective at 1.1115.
Only a daily close below 1.1016 signals 1st leg of correction from 1.0927 has ended and may risk stronger retracement towards1.0978 before prospect of rebound later this week.
No economic data is due out from the euro area countries so traders are likely take cue from intra-day move in U.S. yields.
AceTraderFx Sept 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1009
Yesterday’s intra-day selloff from 1.1055 and then break of Monday’s 1.1016 low to 1.0986 suggests at least the 1st leg of correction from September’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has ended earlier at 1.1084 and range trading with downside bias is seen ahead of key ECB’s rate decision.
Below 1.0986 would head back towards 1.0927 whilst a move above 1.1031 (ECB’s less-dovish hold perhaps) signals pullback from 1.1084 is over, then price would yield another rise towards this res level.
Ahead of ECB meeting, Germany will release final CPI, HICP, then France’s CPI and EU’s industrial production.
AceTraderFx Sept 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1062
Despite yesterday’s intra-day selloff from 1.1069 to 1.0928 after ECB’s rate cut and restart of QE program, failure to penetrate September’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 and subsequent rally above last week’s 1.1084 high to 1.1086 strongly suggests recent downtrend has made a low, a weekly close above 1.1084 would encourage for further gain towards daily chart objective at 1.1164 next week.
Only a daily close below 1.1000 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings from 1.0927 and may risk weakness to 1.0950/60.
Ahead of release of key U.S. retail sales, Germany will kick off with wholesale price index, then EU’s labour costs and trade balance. There is a Eurogroup meeting in Helsinki where ECB President Draghi and board member Coeure will participate.
AceTraderFx Sept 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1075
Although euro’s brief break above previous September’s 1.1084 high to a 2-week top at 1.1109 Friday suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low earlier at 1.0927, subsequent retreat in New York session signals range trading is in store before prospect of further gain, ‘loss of momentum’ should cap price well below 1.1164 res.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1056 may risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 1.1006/16.
Data to be released later today:
UK rightmove house price, Italy CPI, CPI(EU norm) final.
And U.S. New York Fed manufacturing on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1007
Yesterday’s selloff from 1.1091 (New Zealand) to as low as 1.0994 in New York session due to broad-based usd’s demand suggests euro’s early corrective rise from September’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has made a top at last Friday’s 2-week high at 1.1109 and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, oversold condition should keep price above 1.0930/40.
Only a daily close above 1.1056/62 (previous sup area, now res) signals pullback from 1.1109 has ended, then risk would shift to upside for stronger gain towards 1.1091.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDT price index, China house prices, Australia home price index.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current condition, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
Canada manufacturing sales, and U.S. redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Sept 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 201906:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1071
Despite euro’s decline from 1.1109 (Friday) to 1.0991 yesterday, subsequent rebound to 1.1074 in New York session due to broad-based liquidation of long usd positions ahead of FOMC’s decision later today suggests price would ‘gyrate’ inside 1.0928-1.1109.
Only above 1.1109 would extend erratic rise from September’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 towards next daily chart objective at 1.1164 whilst below 1.0991 would pressure price back down to good sup at 1.0927/28.
On the data front, Italy will kick off with industrial order n sales then trade n good balance, the EU will release construction output, finaly HICP n core HICP. We have a number of ECB officials delivering speeches during the day, please refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Sept 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1029
Despite euro’s decline from 1.1109 (Friday) to 1.0991 on Tuesday, subsequent rebound to 1.1075 ahead of Asian open yesterday and subsequent weakness to 1.1015 in post-FOMC New York following Fed’s less-dovish cut suggests price would continue to ‘gyrate’ inside recent broad range of 1.0928-1.1109 with downside bias for weakness towards 1.0962.
Only above 1.1075 may risk gain towards 1.1109 but a break needed to extend erratic rise from September’s 27-month bottom at 1.0927 towards next daily chart objective at 1.1164 next week.
On the data front, the only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is EU’s current account. We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak in Europe and New York session, please refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Sept 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Sept 201905:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1018
Euro’s selloff from 1.1068 to 1.0997 on Friday suggests further choppy trading inside recent 1.0928-1.1109 broad range would be seen with downside bias, below 1.0986/91 would head towards 1.0962, break needed to yield re-test of September’s 27-month trough at 1.0927.
On the upside, only above 1.1068/75 would extend gain to 1.1091, then 1.1109 again.
On the data front, today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with Markit manufacturing and services PMIs, then the same from Germany and the EU plus monthly Buba monthly report. Pay attention to speeches by a number of ECB members including President Draghi (please see our EI section for details).
AceTraderFx Sept 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2019 05:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0994
Although yesterday’s selloff in European morning from 1.1025 to 1.0967 due to downbeat German and EU’s PMIs suggests euro’s correction from September’s fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has ended earlier at 1.1109, below said 2019 bottom needed to extend downtrend towards projected downside target at 1.0865 later this week.
On the upside, above 1.1025 would ‘prolong’ recent choppy sideways swings and may head back to 1.1055/65 before prospect of another fall.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan leading economic index, coincident index, France business climate, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trend order and U.S. redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed services, Richmond Fed manufacturing.s
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major