AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Sept 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0953
Euro’s weakness to 1.0938 on Wednesday due to renewed usd’s strength vs its G7 peers suggests correction from September’s fresh 27-month bottom at 1.0927 has ended earlier at 1.0109 and re-test of said 2019 low is envisaged, break there would extend recent downtrend towards next projected target at 1.0865 next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1000 ‘prolongs’ recent daily wild swings, risks another rise to 1.1024/25, break there needed to turn outlook bullish for stronger gain to 1.1055/65.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance, U.S. GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE, PCE prices, good trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing and Canada average weekly earning.
AceTraderFx Sept 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Sept 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0921
Euro’s break of previous September’s 1.0927 low to a fresh 27-month trough of 1.0910 on Thur confirms recent downtrend has finally resumed after 3 weeks of choppy swings and is en route towards projected target at 1.0865 after consolidation, loss of momentum should keep price above 2017 bottom at 1.1840.
On the upside, only a daily close above yesterday’s 1.0967 high (New York) defers present bearish view and may risk stronger correction to 1.1105, however, reckon res at 1.1024/25 should cap recover and yield another leg of decline next week.
On the ecomomic calendar, there is a slew of data due out from the euro area countries, please refer to our EI section for details, any weaker-than-expected data will give euro bears excuse for bashing the single currency. We also have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak during European morning.
AceTraderFx Sept 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Sept 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0941
Despite euro’s short-covering rebound to 1.0958 in New York on Friday after hitting a fresh 28-month trough of 1.0906 initially in Asia suggests minor consolidation would be seen before prospect of further weakness, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above projected sup at 1.0865.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0967 signals temporary low is in place and risks stronger correction towards 1.1005, however, reckon strong res at 1.1024/25 should cap upside.
We have data dump from the euro area countries in European morning, please refer to our Economic Indicator section for details, pay attention to release of German retail sales at 06:00GMT.
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AceTraderFx Oct 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0960
Although euro’s rebound from Tuesday’s fresh 28-month trough at 1.0880 to 1.0963 (New York) yesterday’s suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and range trading is likely to continue ahead of release of Fri’s key U.S. jobs data, a daily close above 1.0967 needed to bring stronger retarcement towards 1.1025.
Below 1.0905 anytime signals said correction has ended and would yield re-test of 1.0880, then later towards 1.0840.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries (markets in Germany are closed), Italy will kick off with Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany n the EU, EU’s producer prices, n retail sales. We also have ECB’s Enria n ECB Vice Predident de Guindos speaking in European morning.
AceTraderFx Oct 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Oct 2019 03:10GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0978
Although euro’s erratic rise to 1.0999 in New York yesterday due to downbeat U.S. services data and falling yields suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Tuesday’s fresh 28-month trough at 1.0880, a daily close above strong res at 1.1025 needed to bring stronger retracement towards 1.1075 next week.
On the downside, below 1.0942 would be the 1st signal correction has ended and yield weakness to 1.0905, then re-test of 1.0880.
Data to be released on Friday:
China market holiday, Australia retail sales, France budget balance, Italy retail sales, GDP, U.K. BBA mortgage rate, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earning, international trade, trade balance and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Oct 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Oct 2019 03:10GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0970
Despite euro’s rising one tick above last week’s high at 1.0999 (Thursday) to 1.1000 in New York morning yesterday, subsequent retreat due to renewed usd’s strength suggests correction from October’s fresh 28-month bottom at 1.0880 has possibly ended, below 1.0942 would add credence to this view and would head back towards 1.0905.
On the upside, only above 1.1000 would bring marginal gain towards 1.1025 before prospect of decline due to loss of upward momentum.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output, industrial production, then
France’s current account, imports n exports and Italy’s retail sales. ECB Chief Economist will take part in panel discussion at the ECB’s annual conference on monetary policy on Frankfurt at 09:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0960
Euro’s decline from this week’s high at 1.1000 (Monday) to 1.0942 yesterday’s due to renewed usd’s strength in New York suggests early corrective rise from last week’s fresh 28-month trough at 1.0880 has made a top and downside bias remains for subsequent weakness towards pivotal sup at 1.0905 after consolidation.
Only above 1.1000 may risk stronger retracement of recent downtrend and risk gain towards 1.1025 before prospect of decline due to loss of upward momentum.
No economic data is due out from the euro area countries, however, we have a Eurogroup as well as EU FinMins meeting today, so keep an eye out on comments by ECB and European officials.
AceTraderFx Oct 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0985
Euro’s rebound from 1.0942 (Tue) to 1.0989 yesterday suggests pullback from Tue’s 11-day high at 1.1000 has ended and near term upmove from Oct’s fresh 28-month bottom at 1.0880 would extend marginal gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.1025 and yield decline later today or tomorrow.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.0942 sup would signal said correction has ended, then further weakness towards 1.0905 would follow.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with exports, imports and trade balance, then France’s industrial output and then the same from Italy. Pay particular attention to release of minutes of last ECB monetary policy meeting at 11:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1026
Despite euro’s resumption of recent erratic upmove from October’s fresh 28-month trough at 1.0880 to a 2-1/2 week high at 1.1062 Friday, subsequent retreat to 1.1025 in Asia today suggests temporary top made and range trading would be seen before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 1.1109 (September’s top) would remain intact.
On the downside, only below 1.1000 would yield stronger retracement to 1.0968/71 but 1.0942 should hold.
On the data front, we have Germany’s whole price index for Sep n then EU’s industrial production. ECB Vice President Guindos will make an opening speech at a financial event in Madrid at 07:15 GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1026
Despite euro’s narrow movement in Monday’s session as market was was on the yen and sterling, subsequent rebound from 1.1014 (Europe) suggests pullback from last Friday’s near 3-week high at 1.1062 has ended and recent upmove from October’s fresh 28-month bottom at 1.0880 would resume after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1109 (Sep peak).
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1000 (previous res, now sup) may risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise towards 1.0968 but sup at 1.0942 should remain intact.
On the data front, France will kick off with final CPI, then Germany’s ZEW eco. sentiment n Zew current condition n lastly EU’s eco. sentiment. We have ECB’s Knot speaking at Dutch cenbank press conference in Amsterdam at 09:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1030
Yesterday’s rebound from 1.0992 to 1.1044 in New York morning on Brexit deal hope suggests pullback from last Fri’s near 3-week high at 1.1062 has ended and recent upmove from October’s 28-month bottom would resume after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.1109.
Only below 1.0992 aborts bullishness on the single currency and risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.0968, possibly towards 1.0942 later this week.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac leading index.
Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, consumer prices, CPI, UK DCLG house price index, core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, EU trade balance, HICP final, core HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index and Canada CPI, CPI BoC core and core CPI.
AceTraderFx Oct 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1082
Yesterday’s rally above last Fri’s 1.1062 high to a near 1-month peak at 1.1085 in New York on usd’s weakness suggests recent upmove from Oct’s 28-month trough of 1.0880 would head towards 1.1109 (September’s high) after consolidation, break would yield 1.1164 before prospect of correction.
On the downside, only below 1.1023 would indicate temporary top is in place and risk weakness to 1.0992/00.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy trade balance, trade balance non-EU, UK retail sales, retail ex-fuel, EU construction output.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output and Canada manufacturing sales, ADP employment change
AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1125
Thur’s resumption of recent upmove and intra-day break above Sep’s 1.1109 high to a 6-week peak of 1.1139 (Europe) suggests euro’s rise from Oct’s fresh 218-month bottom at 1.0880 would head to 1.1180/90 after consolidation, overbought condition should prevent strong gain.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1085 signals temporary top is made, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement twd 1.1023 early next week.
The European Council is holding a special Brexit summit today n on the dat front, we have EU’s current account. ECB President n ECB’s Coeure will particpate in IMF/World Bank meetings (to Oct 19) in Washington D.C.
AceTraderFx Oct 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1159
Euro’s rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1173 near New York closing on Friday suggests upmove from October’s 28-month trough at 1.0880 remains in progress and further gain to 1.1194, then 1.1209/10 would be seen, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1240/50 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1115 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1085 but support at 1.1066 should remain intact.
Germany will release its producer prices at 06:00GMT whilst the Bundesbank will issue its monthly report at 10:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1153
Although price has retreated after yesterday’s brief break of Friday’s high at 1.1173 to a 2-month peak at 1.1179 and minor consolidation would be seen, as 1.1140 has contained downside, upside bias remains and above said resistance would extend upmove from October’s 28-month trough at 1.0880 to 1.1209/10 later before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 1.1102 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1085/90 before rebound occurs.
Since there is no major economic data being released from eurozone today, traders should keep an eye on the eur/gbp cross.
AceTraderFx Oct 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1129
Although price has retreated after Monday’s brief break of Friday’s high at 1.1173 to a 2-month peak at 1.1179 and minor consolidation would be seen, as 1.1140 has contained downside, upside bias remains and above said resistance would extend upmove from October’s 28-month trough at 1.0880 to 1.1209/10 later before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 1.1102 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1085/90 before rebound occurs.
Pay attention to the release of EU consumer confidence at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is -6.7, down from previous reading of -6.5. Elsewhere, ECB’s Andrea Enria is scheduled to speak at an event in Madrid at 08:45GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1137
Although price has retreated after Monday’s brief break of Friday’s high at 1.1173 to a 2-month peak at 1.1179 and minor consolidation would be seen, as 1.1107 has contained downside yesterday, upside bias remains and above said resistance would extend upmove from October’s 28-month trough at 1.0880 to 1.1209/10 later before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 1.1102 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1085/90 before rebound occurs.
Market focus is on the European Central Bank’s rate decision at 11:45GMT. No changes in policy are expected at President Mario Draghi’s last meeting before passing the reigns to Christine Lagarde. Draghi will deliver his final press conference at 12:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Oct 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1103
The single currency’s cable-led selloff from 1.1162 to as low as 1.1094 yesterday suggests recent upmove from October’s 28-month trough at 1.0880 has made a temporary top at Monday’s 2-month peak at 1.1179 on Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement to 1.1070/75, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1062/66 and yield correction later.
On the upside, only above 1.1162 would confirm pullback is over and bring re-test of said high, break would extend to 1.1209/10 before prospect of retreat.
Pay attention to the release of German Ifo data at 08:00GMT. Street forecasts for business climate, current conditions and expectations are 94.5, 98.0 and 91.0 vs previous readings of 94.6, 98.5 and 90.8 respectively.
AceTraderFx Nov 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Nov 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1150
Although euro’s rally in post-FOMC on Wednesday to 1.1175 yesterday suggests correction from October’s 2-month peak at 1.1179 has ended last week at 1.1074, subsequent retreat due to broad-based selling in EUR especially vs yen would bring sideways trading ahead of release of key U.S. jobs report.
As long as previous res area (now sup) at 1.1122-26 holds, upmove from October’s 28-month bottom at 1.0880 is likely to head towards 1.1249 next week. A daily close below 1.1100 would risk weakness towards 1.1074, break may extend towards 1.1023.
There is no eco. data due out from the euro area countries, so are eyes are on U.S. NFP and average earnings. So be nimble and be quick when the data come out at 12:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Nov 2019 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1130
The single currency’s selloff from yesterday’s high at 1.1175 and subsequent break of previous support at 1.1129 to 1.1122 today suggests further choppy trading below October’s 2-month peak at 1.1179 would continue with downside bias and weakness to 1.1103, then 1.1081/85 would be seen, however, oversold condition would keep price above reaction low at 1.1074 and yield rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1175/79 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 1.1223 before prospect of a correction later this week.
Pay attention to the release of EU PPI mm and yy at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.1% and -1.2% vs previous readings of -0.5% and -0.8% respectively.