AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0840
Euro’s anticipated resumption of decline from last week’s 1.11477 high to Thursday’s 1-week low of 1.0821 on renewed usd’s strength due to safe-haven demand following blowout U.S. jobless claims suggests correction from March’s near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended.
As long as 1.0904 holds, further weakness towards 1.0786 is envisaged after consolidation, however, reckon 1.0747 should contain weakness. A daily close above 1.0904 would risk stronger retracement of aforesaid fall towards 1.0969 next Monday.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries where Markit services and mfg PMIs for Mar will be released (see our EI page for details) and these readings will be very ‘weak’ in the aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak, so expect euro to come under renewed selling when data from Italy, France, Germany and the EU are released.
AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0811
Euro’s decline for 5 consecutive days last week to 1.0774 in post-NFP New York on Fri suggests early corrective rally from March’s near 3-year bottom at 1.0637, although strong, has ended at 1.1147 and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.0721 today and bring rebound.
On the upside, only above 1.0904 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.0927/31 before prospect of another fall later this week.
Data to be released today:
Australia ANZ job advertisements, China market holiday, Germany industrial orders, UK Markit construction PMI and EU Sentix index.
AceTraderFx Apr 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0792
Although euro’s recent decline from 1.1147 to as low as 1.0769 yesterday suggests correction from Mar’s near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended, subsequent recovery would bring sideways trading before marginal weakness, near term loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.0721 today.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0866 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.0904 before prospect of another fall later this week.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details. Eurogroup officials meet today in Brussels n fiscal measures to support the EZ economy due to fallout from COVID-19 may come late in the day.
AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0878
Although euro’s recent sharp fall from 1.1147 to as low as 1.0769 on Monday suggests early correction from March’s near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended, yesterday’s rally above 1.0834 (Monday high, now sup) to 1.0926 due to broad-based usd’s weakness on return of risk sentiment suggests temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of consolidation with upside bias is seen.
Expect 1.1000 to cap present rebound and yield subsequent retreat. A daily close below 1.0834 would indicate correction has ended, then price would head back towards 1.0769 later this week.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, machinery orders, economy watchers current, economy watchers outlook.
Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0863
Euro’s rally from this week’s 1.0769 low (Tuesday) to 1.0926 on Tuesday suggests recent decline from 1.1147 has made a temporary low and as price has rebounded after intra-day brief but strong retreat to 1.0831 in Europe, upside bias remains for marginal gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.0958 (50% r from 1.1147).
Only a daily close below 1.0831 suggests recovery has ended instead, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.0800, then re-test of 1.0769 ‘later’.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan consumer confidence index.
UK RICS housing price balance, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance,Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Italy industrial output.
U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate.
AceTraderFx Apr 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0924
Despite resumption of upmove from last week’s 1.0769 trough to retrace early decline from 1.1147 to an 11-day high of 1.0967 in holiday-thin Asia, subsequent weakness due to broad-based euro selling suggests top is possibly made and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, reckon sup at 1.0831 would hold from here.
Only above 1.0967 risks marginal gain but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1000 and yield decline.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China exports, imports, trade balance and U.S. import prices, exports, redbook.
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0986
Yesterday’s resumption of upmove from April’s 1.0769 low to a near 2-week high of 1.0987 in New York due to continued usd’s weakness suggests said move would head to 1.1000/10 after consolidation, however, overbought condition would cap price below 1.1039 and yield a much-needed correction.
On the downside, below 1.0948 would signal temporary top is made and bring retracement to 1.0916, then later towards 1.0893.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand food price index, Australia consumer sentiment.
France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capital utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada BoC interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0886
Yesterday’s intra-day fall from a near 2-week high of 1.0991 (AUS) to as low as 1.0857 in New York morning due to renewed usd’s strength on risk aversion suggests early erratic rise from April’s 1.0769 bottom has ended, despite subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.0939 after downbeat U.S. eco. data, present weakness in Asia has retained bearishness, below 1.0857 would encourage for weakness towards 1.0831.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0939 dampens bearish view and may risk another rise to 1.0967, however, reckon 1.0987/91 res would remain intact and yield further choppy swings.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK BRC retail sales, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price index, EU industrial production.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and Canada manufacturing sales.
AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0860
Euro’s ‘erratic’ fall from Wed’s near 2-week peak of 1.0991 to 1.0817 yesterday due to broad-based usd buying on risk-off trade suggests early rise from Apr’s 1.0769 low has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said temporary low next week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0905 dampens present bearish scenario and risks stronger gain towards 1.0938, break, 1.0967.
The euro area will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our Eco. Indicator page for details.
AceTraderFx Apr 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0864
Despite euro’s decline from last Wed’s near 2-week high of 1.0991 (AUS) to 1.0813 on Friday, subsequent rebound to 1.0892 in New York suggests temporary low has been made and choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.0905/15 would cap recovery and yield another fall.
Below 1.0813 would encourage for weakness towards Apr’s low at 1.0769 later this week. Only above 1.0939 aborts bearishness and may risk gain towards 1.0991.
Data to be released today:
New Zealand CPI, UK Rightmove house price, Japan exports, imports, trade balance.
Germany producer prices, EU current account, trade balance, nation activity index.
Canada wholesale trade on Monday.
AceTraderFx Apr 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0858
Despite Monday’s intra-day rise from 1.0842 to 1.0896 in European morning, subsequent choppy swings in New York session suggests recovery from last Friday’s 9-day trough at 1.0813 has possibly ended and decline from April’s 1.0991 would head to 1.0785/90 after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.0769.
Only a daily close above 1.0896 risks stronger retracement of said fall to 1.0935/39 before prospect of another fall later this week.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, U.S. redbook, existing home sales and New Zealand GDT price index.
AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0856
Athough yesterday’s intra-day brief buy strong bounce from 1.0817 to 1.0880 in New York morning suggests further choppy trading above last week’s low at 1.0813 would continue, as long as 1.0896 (reaction high Monday) holds, recent fall from 1.0991 would resume after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should keep euro above Apr’s low at 1.0769.
Only a daily close above 1.0905 risks stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.0991 towards 1.0939 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core ouput, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales and EU consumer confidence.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price index, Canada CPI, core CPI,
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0813
Euro’s intra-day selloff from 1.0885 (Europe) yesterday’s and then subsequent brief break of last week’s 1.0813 low to a 2-week trough of 1.0804 in New York due to renewed usd’s strength suggests recent fall from 1.0991 would extend marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above April’s bottom at 1.0769 and risk has increased for a correction to take place.
On the upside, a daily close above 1.0842 would be first signal temporary low is made n may bring stronger retracement to 1.0885/95.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, imports, exports, trade balance, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, leading indicator, coincident index.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, CBI trends orders, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy trade balance, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. building permits, initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0769
Despite euro’s intra-day wild swings in New York after intra-day resumption of recent decline to a near 1-month trough of 1.0757 (Europe), subsequent selloff from 1.0846 to 1.0762 after EU leaders failed to agree on EZ recovery plan suggests downside bias remains for weakness towards projected target at 1.0718, then towards 2020 bottom at 1.0637 (March) later next week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0846 dampens bearishness on euro and may risk stronger retracement of early fall from 1.1147 to 1.0885/95.
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, total industrial activity index.
UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. drable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0817
Despite euro’s resumption of recent decline to a 1-month trough of 1.0728 (Europe) on Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.0829 in New York session due to broad-based profit taking in usd suggests temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy trading is in store before prospect of another fall, below 1.0757/62 would bring re-test of 1.0728.
Only a daily close above 1.0846 dampens bearish outlook on euro and risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement of towards 1.0896.
Data to be released today:
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0835
Desoite euro’s rally from 1.0811 to as high as 1.088 in European trading on intra-day usd’s weakness, subsequent sharp fall to 1.0818 after the greenback regained traction in New York session suggests corrective rise from last Friday’s 1-month bottom at 1.07 has possibly ended.
Below 1.0810/11 sup would encourage for re-test of 1.0728 later this week and only a daily close above 1.0888 may risk stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.0935/39.
On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our economic indicators page for details.
AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0953
Despite euro’s resumption of recent upmove from April’s 1.0728 trough to a 2-week high of 1.1018 (New York) on Friday, subsequent cable-led retreat suggests temporary top is made, as long as 1.0935 holds, mild upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1062/67.
A daily close below 1.0935 would bring retracement of said rise from 1.0728 towards 1.0896.
Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday, China market holiday, Australia building approvals, ANZ job advertisements.
Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, sentix index.
U.S. ISM New York index, Durable ex-defense, Durable goods, Durables ex-transport, Factory orders on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Mayr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0910
Euro’s decline from last Friday’s 2-week high of 1.1018 to as low as 1.096 (New York) yesterday suggests recent rise from April’s 1.0728 bottom has made a top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, near term oversold condition should keep price above sup at 1.0834 and yield rebound later this week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0972 signals pullback has possibly ended, then risk would shift to the upside for another rise to 1.1000/10.
On the data front, France will release budget balance n then EU’s producer prices. Some ECB members are scheduled to speak in European morning (please refer to our EI page for details).
Pay attention to release of European Commission’s eco. growth forecasts (but no release time is scheduled).
AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 May 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0840
Euro’s intra-day selloff in European morning from 1.0925 to 1.0827 signals the correction from April’s 1-month bottom at 1.0728 has ended earlier at 1.1018 (Fri) and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, reckon 1.0757/62 would contain downside.
Only a daily close above 1.0896 (Monday low) ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and risks another rise to 1.0925 before prospect of retreat.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial orders, Italy’s Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany and the EU including retails sales.
As all the indicated data are expected to be downbeat, euro is likely to come under renewed bashing after the releases, so be nimble and be quick.
AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 May 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0795
Euro’s anticipated resumption of decline from last week’s high at 1.1018 (Friday) to as low as 1.0783 yesterday’s signals early upmove from April’s 1-month trough at 1.0728 has ended there and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, ‘loss of downward momentum’ should keep price above 1.0728 and yield rebound.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0886 signals low is finally made and may head back towards 1.0925 later.
On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major