AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
855

AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0850
Although euro’s anticipated resumption of decline from last week’s 1.1018 high (Friday) to as low as 1.0767 in New York yesterday suggests early strong rise from April’s 1.0728 has ended, subsequent rebound on broad-based usd’s weakness ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report would bring sideways swings.

As long as 1.0857/63 holds, downside bias, below 1.0800 would yield another fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.0728. A daily close above 1.0863 would ‘prolong’ broad sideways swings and may risk stronger gain towards 1.0925, then 1.0960/70 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan all household spending, Jibun Bank services PMI
UK GfK consumer confidence, market holiday, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada housing starts, building permits, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

856

AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0841
Although euro’s rebound from last week’s low at 1.0767 (Thursday) suggests early decline from May’s 4-week peak at 1.1018 has made a temporary low, as price has retreated after climbing to 1.0875 in post-NFP New York on Friday, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.0800 would yield re-test of 1.0767.

Only a daily close above 1.0875 would risk stronger retracement to 1.0925 but reckon 109.72 would cap upside.

Data to be released today :
New Zealand retail sales and Italy industrial output on Monday.

857

AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0809
Euro’s decline from 1.0875 (Friday) to 1.0801 in New York yesterday’s suggests recovery from last week’s low at 1.0767 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of this sup, break would extend early fall from May’s 4-week peak at 1.1018 towards April’s bottom at 1.0728 later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0850 prolongs choppy swings and risk re-test of 1.0875, however, reckon res at 1.0925 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
China PPI, CPI, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Canada leading index, and U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, redbook, Federal budget.

858

AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0854
Although euro’s recent decline from May’s 1.118 high to as low as 1.0767 last week suggests early correction from April’s 1.0728 bottom has ended, subsequent bounce to 1.0875 (Friday), then yesterday’s intra-day rally to 1.0884 would bring further sideways swings before prospect of another fall.

As long as 1.0925 res holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.0827 would head back to 1.0785, then towards 1.0767. Only a daily close above said res risks stronger retracement to 1.0960/70 later this week.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is EU’s Mar industrial production.
We have ECB Chief Economist Lane n Vice Precicent de Guindos speaking later today (please refer to our EI page for details).

859

AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0823
Despite euro’s ‘erratic’ rise from last week’s trough at 1.0767 to 1.0896 in New York morning, intra-day selloff to 1.0812 due to broad-based usd’s strength after Fed J. Powell rejected negative U.S. interest rates suggests correction has ended and downside bias remains for re-test of said sup after consolidation, break would extend fall from May’s 1.1018 peak towards 1.0728 later.

On the upside, only above 1.0857 ‘prolongs’ choppy sideways swings and may head back to 1.0875/85 but 1.0896 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan machine tool orders.
UK RICS housing price balance, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, France ILO unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price index, Italy trade balance.
U.S. import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, and Canada manufacturing sales.

860

AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0802
Although eur’s selloff from 1.0896 (Wednesday) to as low as 1.0776 in Europe yesterday suggests correction from last week’s low at 1.0767 (Thursday) has ended, subsequent recovery in New York session due to short covering would bring sideways swings before another fall, below 1.0767 would encourage for weakness towards April’s bottom at 1.0728 next week.

Only a daily close above 1.0824 ‘prolongs’ recent choppy consolidation and may risk stronger gain to 1.0875/85.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan corporate goods price, China industrial output, retail sales.
Germany GDP, France CPI, CPI (EU-norm), Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU-norm), EU employment change, GDP.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, industrial production, capacity utilization, JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan sentiment.

861

AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2020 03:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0821
Despite euro’s fall from last week’s high at 1.0896 (Wed) to 1.0776 on Thursday, subsequent bounce to 1.0850 suggests further volatile swings above May’s 1.0767 bottom would continue.

As long as 1.0896 holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards May’s 1.0767 low, break would extend early decline from 1.1018 towards 1.0728 (Apr low later this week).

Although there will be no economic data from the euro zone, we have German Buba monthly report due to release later today.

862

AceTraderFx May 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0916
Euro’s intra-day rally above last week’s 1.0896 high in New York session due to risk-on trade following joint German-French announcement of a EU recovery fund to as high as 1.0926 suggests further ‘gyrations’ inside recent 1.1018-1.0767 broad range would continue.

As long as 1.0875/85 holds, upside bias remains, however, overbought condition should cap price at 1.0980/90. Below 1.0850 signals top is made and heads back to 1.0801/05 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand PPI, GDT price, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment employment change, average weekly earnings.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU construction output, ZEW survey expectation,.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook and Canada new housing price index.

863

AceTraderFx May 20 Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0938
Euro’s retreat from Tuesday’s 2-week high of 1.0876 suggests further ‘choppy’ trading below May’s 1.1018 peak would continue and consolidation with downside bias remain, below 1.0896 (last week’s high, now sup) would yield stronger retracement of early erratic rise from 1.0767 to 1.0850 but sup 1.0801/05 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 1.0976 aborts present consolidative scenario on euro and risk would shift to the upside for re-test of 1.1018 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand food price index, Japan machinery orders, Australia westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI inputs, RPI outputs, PPI core outputs, EU current account, HICP, core HICP, consumer confidence U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada CPI, CPI BOC core, core CPI.

864

AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0975
Yesterday’s gain to a near 3-week high of 1.0999 due to broad-based usd’s weakness in New York suggests re-test of May’s 1.1018 peak may be seen, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent strong gain and reckon 1.1040/50 would cap upside and yield a much-needed correction of recent rise.

A daily close below 1.0919 signals top is in place, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 1.1896, then towards 1.0850 next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
France market holiday, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany market holiday, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss market holiday, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, services PMI, CBI trends orders.
Canada new housing price index, and U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales, leading index change.

865

AceTraderFx May 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0950
Despite resumption of recent strong rise to a fresh 3-week high of 1.1008, failure to re-test May’s 1.1018 peak and subsequent retreat to 1.0938 (New York) suggests consolidation with downside bias is in store, below 1.0938 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.0896, however, reckon 1.0850 should remain intact.

Only above 1.1008/18 res extends marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should limit gain to 1.1050/55 and risk is seen for a correction to occur next week.

On the data front, after release of large number of EZ data earlier this week, no eco data is due out today, however, pay attention to release of the minutes of last ECB monetary policy meeting at 11:30GMT which may move the euro a little bit.

866

AceTraderFx May 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0907
Euro’s decline from last Thursday’s near 3-week high of 1.1008 to 1.0886 on Friday due to renewed usd’s strength suggests choppy trading below May’s peak at 1.1018 would continue and downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.0850 but reckon 1.0800/05 should hold from here.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0938 signals pullback has possibly ended, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger gain, however, 1.1008 is expected to remain intact.

Data to be released today :
Japan leading indicator, coincident index.
UK market holiday, Germany GDP. Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectation.
U.S. market holiday on Monday.

867

AceTraderFx May 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0900
Euro’s decline from last week’s 1.1008 high to 1.0871 yesterday suggests recent erratic rise from May’s 1.0767 bottom has made a top there and despite subsequent rebound to 1.0914 after upbeat German Ifo data, outlook remains mildly bearish for weakness to 1.0850 but loss of momentum should keep price above 1.0800/05.

Only a daily close above 1.0938 signals pullback has ended instead, then risk is seen for stronger gain towards 1.0976.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan total industrial activity index.
German GfK consumer sentiment, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, non-farm payrolls, France business climate, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, national activity index, monthly home price, CaseShiller home price index, consumer confidence, new home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.

868

AceTraderFx May 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0971
Euro’s impressive rise from Monday’s 1.0871 low to 1.0995 yesterday due to broad-based usd’s weakness suggests re-test of May’s peak at 1.1018 would be seen after consolidation, above would extend early upmove from Apr’s bottom at 1.0728 towards 1.1067 ‘later’ this week.

On the downside, below 1.0914 (previous res, now sup) would abort present bullish view and risk another fall towards 1.0871.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out is from France where business climate and consumer confidence are due out at 05:30GMT and 06:45GMT respectively. ECB Preisent Lagarde will speak at a non-financial event at 07:30GMT while other ECB members are also scheduled to speak later (see EI page for details).

869

AceTraderFx May 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1022
As euro has risen after intra-day strong retreat from Wed’s 7-week peak of 1.1030 to 1.0956 (New York), suggesting recent erratic rise from 1.0728 (April low) may extend marginal gain, however, ‘loss of upward momentum’ would cap price at 1.1060/70 and yield a much-needed correction of aforesaid rise.

Below 1.0935 (Wednesday low) anytime signals temporary top is made and yields stronger retracement towards 1.0871.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.

870

AceTraderFx May 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1080
Although euro’s resumption of recent erratic upmove to a near 2-month high of 1.1093 due to usd’s weakness suggests further gain is likely after consolidation, a breach above 1.1147 res needed to signal an ‘upside break’ of recent 1.0637-1.1147 broad range has occurred and would then head to 1.1200/10 next week.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1030 would be the 1st signal temporary top is made, then risk is seen for a much-needed retracement to 1.0992, then later towards 1.0935.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI, CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, construction orders, housing starts, consumer confidence.
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide hose prices index, Germany import prices, retail sales, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices index, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy GDP, consumer price index, CPI (EU norm), EU HICP, core HICP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories.
Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.

871

AceTraderFx Jun 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 June 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1116
Euro’s resumption of recent upmove to a 2-month peak of 1.1144 on Friday due to continued broad-based usd’s weakness and month-end euro’s demand suggests test of daily res at 1.1147 res would be seen after consolidation, break would extend medium-term rise towards 1.1200.

Intra-day retreat would bring initial sideways swings before up and only below 1.1030/35 (previous res, now sup) confirms temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement towards 1.0992 later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of PMI data despite holidays in key centres in Germany and France, please refer to our EI page for details.

872

AceTraderFx Jun 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 June 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1130
Yesterday’s brief break of daily res at 1.1147 to a 2-month high of 1.1153 confirms euro’s medium-term rise from 2020 bottom at 1.0637 has finally resumed and further gain is envisaged after consolidation, however, near term loss if upward momentum should cap price below 1.1213.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1082 signals temporary top is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1030/35 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand building permits, terms of trade, import prices, export prices, GDT price index, Australia business inventories, current account, RBA interest rate decision.
Italy market holiday, UK nationwide house price index, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, France budget balance.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index.

873

AceTraderFx Jun 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 June 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1194
Despite euro’s intra-day marginal gain above Tuesday’s 2-1/2 month high of 1.1195, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain today and reckon 1.1239 would cap upside and yield a much-needed minor correction before prospect of another rise later this week.

Below 1.1053 anytime signals temporary top is in place and yield weakness to 1.1100/10 but 1.1082 should remain intact.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, please refer to our EI page for details.

874

AceTraderFx Jun 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 June 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2220
Euro’s intra-day retreat in Asia after climbing to a near 3-month peak of 1.1257 (New York) yesterday suggests range trading is in store ahead of ECB policy meeting, as long as 1.1185 holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1300.

A daily close below 1.1185 would risk stronger retracement towards 1.1153 but reckon 1.1100/10 should remain intact.

On the data front, the only economic data due out is EU’s retail sales.