AceTraderFx Jun 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1338
Yesterday’s impressive rally from 1.1196 (Europe) to as high as 1.1361 in post-ECB New York suggests upmove from 2020 near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 remains in force and price is expected to head towards 2020 peak at 1.1494 (march) later next week.
Today, outlook remains bullish for further gain after consolidation, overbought condition is likely to limit upside to 1.1400/10. Only a daily close below 1.1300 signals temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1257, however, 1.1196 should remain intact.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial irders at 06:00GMT n then Italy will release retail dales at 08:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1314
Despite hitting a fresh 2-1/2 month high of 1.1383 in European morning Friday, euro’s subsequent retreat to 1.1279 in New York after surprise sharp jump in U.S. payrolls suggests temporary top is possibly in place and would bring consolidation with downside bias, below 1.1279 would bring a much-needed retracement to 1.1248, then 1.1200/05.
Only above 1.1361 risks re-test of 1.1383, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1410/15 and yield correction.
Data to be released today :
Australia market holiday, Japan current account, trade balance, GDP, economic watchers current, economic watchers outlook.
Germany industrial output, EU Sentix index.
Canada housing.
AceTraderFx Jun 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1296
Although euro’s decline from last Fri’s fresh 2-1/2 month peak of 1.1383 to 1.1269 yesterday’s suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there, subsequent rebound to 1.1318 due to renewed usd’s weakness in New York would bring sideways swings, a daily close above 1.1319 would signal pullback has ended and yield gain to 1.1343, break, 1.1370/80 later.
Below 1.1269 would bring stronger retracement, however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1200/10.
Data to be released later :
ANZ job advertisements, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence,
Swiss unemployment rate, Japan machine tool orders, UK BRC retail sales, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, EU employment, GDP.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1339
Yesterday’s rally from 1.1242 (Europe) to as high as 1.1364 in New York due to renewed usd’s broad-based weakness suggests early pullback from last Friday’s fresh 2-1/2 month peak at 1.1383 has ended and recent upmove would resume after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below 2020 peak (March) at 1.1494.
On the downside, only failure to penetrate 1.1383 and a daily close below 1.1300 ‘prolongs’ choppy swings, risks weakness towards 1.1242.
The only eco. data due out today is France’s industrial out, however, we have a number of ECB members scheduled to speak during European session, please refer to EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jun 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1390
Although euro’s retreat from Wednesday’s 3-month high of 1.1422 in post-FOMC after Fed’s dovish hold suggests temporary top is in place and initial sideways swings are in store, as long as 1.1323 (New York low) holds, marginal gain is likely, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below 2020 peak (March) at 1.1894 and yield a long-overdue correction.
A daily close below 1.1323 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1269, then later towards 1.1242.
On the data front, France will kick off with non-farm payrolls data, then Italy’s industrial output.
The Eurogroup will meet today, ECB President Lagarde n ECB members Panetta n Enria will participate in this virtual meeting.
AceTraderFx Jun 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1283
As euro’s intra-day wild swings on Thursday has ended with price tumbling from 1.1403 to 1.1289 in New York session due to active safe-haven usd buying on plunge in U.S. stocks, suggesting medium-term upmove has made a temporary top at Wed’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement towards chart obj. at 1.1296.
Only a daily close above 1.1323 signals 1st leg of correction is over and risks further recovery to 1.1350/60 but 1.1403 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, food price index, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, France CPI, EU industrial production.
U.S. import prices, export prices, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada capacity utilization.
AceTraderFx Jun 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1246
Euro’s decline from last Thursday’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 to as low as 1.1213 (New York) on Friday confirms medium-term upmove has made a temporary top and downside bias remains for a long-overdue correction towards 1.1147.
Only a daily close above 1.1277 signals 1st leg of correction is over, however, reckon 1.1340 (Friday high) should remain intact and yield another fall later this week.
Data to be released today :
UK house price Rightmove, China industrial output, house price, retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activity, Swiss import price, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing and Canada manufacturing sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1331
Euro’s rally in New York afternoon due to usd’s weakness following announcement of Fed’s purchase of corporate bond suggests first leg of correction from last Wednesday’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 has ended at 1.1212 (Friday) and upside bias remains for further gain after consolidation, near term overbought condition would cap price below 1.1403.
On the downside, below 1.1268 is needed to indicate rebound is over, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.1241, then weakness towards 1.1213.
The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details.
AceTraderFx Jun 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1263
Although euro’s strong rise from last week’s 1.1213 low (Fri) suggests 1st leg of correction from June’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 has ended there, Tuesday’s selloff from 1.1352 to as low as 1.1229 in New York due to broad-based usd’s strength after robust U.S. retail sales suggests recovery over and re-test of 1.1213 is envisaged, then towards next objective at 1.1147 later this week.
Only above 1.1300 ‘prolongs’ choppy swings, however, reckon 1.1352 should cap upside and yield another decline.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, Italy indutrial orders, industrial sales, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, and Canada CPI, core CPI.
AceTraderFx Jun 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1242
Yesterday’s brief break of last week’s 1.1213 low to 1.1208 in New York confirms euro’s decline from June’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 has once again resumed and although subsequent rebound on short covering would bring initial consolidation, downside bias remains for further weakness, ‘loss of downward momentum’ is expected to keep price above 1.1147.
Only a daily close above 1.1294 (Wednesday’s top) defers current bearish scenario and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1315/25 but 1.1352 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, UK BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchases, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cu.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, leading index change, and Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index, wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Jun 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1202
Despite Thursday’s initial sideways swings, subsequent decline from 1.1262 (Europe) to a 12-day low at 1.1186 on renewed usd’s strength suggests recent decline from June’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 would resume after consolidation, near term loss of downward momentum is likely to limit weakness to 1.1147 and risk has increased for a correction.
On the upside, only above 1.1262 signals temporary bottom is made and yields stronger retracement towards 1.1294.
On the economic data front, Germany will kick off with producer prices and then followed by EU’s current account. The European Council will hold a meeting later today so keep an eye out on comments by EU officials.
AceTraderFx Jun 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 June 2020 02:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1181
As Friday’s intra-day ‘wild’ swings ended with euro falling from 1.1254 to a 2-1/2 week low of 1.1169 as usd regained traction on safe-haven buying, suggests decline from Jun’s 3-month peak at 1.1222 remains in force, near term loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1100/10 and risk has increased for a correction to take place tomorrow.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1254 confirms temporary bottom is in place, then stronger retracement towards 1.1294 can’t be ruled out before prospect of another fall later this week.
Data to be released today:
UK CBI trends orders, U.S. national activity index, existing home sales and EU consumer confidence on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1269
Despite yesterday’s initial re-test of last Fri’s 2-1/2 week low of 1.1269 (AUS), subsequent rally to 1.1269 in New York due to broad-based usd’s weakness suggests recent erratic fall from June’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of choppy swings are in store.
Reckon 1.1300/10 would cap present rise and yield retreat, below 1.1226 would signals rebound is over and head back to 1.1200/04 but 1.1169 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. building permits, redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
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AceTraderFx Jun 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1315
Euro’s stronger-than-expected rebound from last Friday’s 2-1/2 week bottom at 1.1169 suggests early correction from Jun’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 has ended, a daily close above 1.1352 would add credence to this view and bring re-test of 1.1422 later.
On the downside, only below 1.1281 aborts present bullish view and risk would shift to downside for weakness towards 1.1234 but reckon 1.1204 would hold today.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay particular attention to release of Germany’s Ifo data due out at 08:00GMT. ECB Chief Economist Lane is scheduled to speak at 07:00GMT, then Germany’s FinMin Altmaier will give a news conference on Germany’s economic position at 13:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1210
Despite euro’s strong rise from last Friday’s 2-1/2 week trough of 1.1169 to as high as 1.1348 on Tuesday, subsequent decline to 1.1191 in New York due to continued safe-haven usd buying suggests choppy trading below June’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 would continue with downside bias, near term loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1147 today.
Only above 1.1250/60 signals temporary low is made but reckon 1.1311 should cap upside.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (see our EI page for details) n ECB President Lagarde is schedule to speak in Frankfurt at an online conference at 07:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1225
The single currency’s sideways move on Friday after last Tuesday’s selloff from 1.1348 to 1.1391 Thursday suggests correction from last Monday’s 2-1/2 week trough at 1.1169 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from June’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 towards 1.1147 later but support at 1.1116 should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 1.1260 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1281 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released today :
Japan retail sales, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
Germany CPI, HICP, Canada building permits, producer prices.
U.S. pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 June 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1238
Despite the single currency’s strong rebound from last Thursday’s low at 1.1191 to 1.1288 yesterday, subsequent retreat to 1.1220 suggests the recovery has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of 1.1191, below would bring weakness towards last Monday’s 2-1/2 week trough at 1.1169, where a break would extend decline from June’s 3-month peak at 1.1422 towards 1.1116.
On the upside, only above 1.1288 would abort daily bearishness and risks stronger gain to 1.1320/30 but resistance at 1.1348 should remain intact.
There is a slew of data to be released from Italy and France today. One should also pay attention to comments from ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at 13:00GMT and ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx July 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 July 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1253
Despite the single currency’s retreat from Monday’s high at 1.1288 to 1.1186 yesterday, subsequent rally to 1.1275 in New York suggests recent decline from last Tuesday’s high at 1.1348 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for stronger gain to 1.1.288, then 1.1325, however, aforesaid resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1186 would revive bearishness for a re-test of last Monday’s 2-1/2 week trough at 1.1169, break, 1.1145/50.
EU will release its unemployment rate at 09:00GMT. Street forecast is 7.7%, up from previous reading of 7.3%. Elsewhere, ECB’s Executive Board Member Yves Mersch is scheduled to speak at 13:00GMT.
AceTraderFx July 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 July 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1239
Despite the single currency’s gain to 1.1302 yesterday, subsequent selloff to 1.1224 in post-NFP trading suggests recovery from Wednesday’s low at 1.1186 has ended there and choppy trading below last Tuesday’s high at 1.1348 would continue with downside bias and weakness to 1.1204 would be seen, however, said support at 1.1186 should hold on first testing.
On the upside, only above 1.1275 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger gain to 1.1288, then 1.1302 before prospect of down.
There is a slew of services PMI to be released from the eurozone but one should pay particular attention to Germany and EU’s release at 07:55GMT and 08:00GMT respectively.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major