AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
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AceTraderFx Aug 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1806
Despite the single currency’s selloff from last Friday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1908 to as low as 1.1697 on Monday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1806 yesterday and intra-day break above this resistance suggests the 1st leg of correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1835/40, however, 1.1850 should remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1722 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.1697, break would risk stronger retracement to 1.1680/83.

Pay attention to the release of EU retail sales mm and yy at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 5.9% and -0.5% vs previous readings of 17.8% and -5.1% respectively.

916

AceTraderFx Aug 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1876
Despite the single currency’s selloff from last Friday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1908 to as low as 1.1697 on Monday, subsequent rally to 1.1905 yesterday on usd’s broad-based weakness confirms the pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of said top and break would extend marginally, however, 1.1950/60 should remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1800 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.1722, break would risk stronger retracement to 1.1697.

Pay attention to the release of Germany industrial orders mm and yy at 06:00GMT. Street forecasts are 10.1% and -34.0% vs previous readings of 10.4% and -29.3% respectively.

917

AceTraderFx Aug 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1872
As euro has risen again after intra-day strong retreat from Thursday’s fresh 2-year peak of 1.1915 to 1.1819 (New York), suggesting recent uptrend would extend marginal gain after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price at 1.1950/60 today and risk has increased for a correction to take place.

On the downside, a daily close below previous support area at 1.1800/06 would signal temporary top is made and yield stronger retracement to 1.1755/60.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia AIG services index, Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading indicator index, China exports, imports, trade balance.
Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house prices, Italy trade balance.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventory, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.

918

AceTraderFx Aug 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1791
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.1915 last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 1.1756 on usd’s broad-based strength in post-NFP trading on Friday suggests MT upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1722, however, support at 1.1697 should remain intact, yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1850 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 1.1890/00, then 1.1915 later.

Data to be released today :
New Zealand ANZ business outlook, ANZ own activity, China PPI, CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, EU Sentix index, Canada leading index and U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.

919

AceTraderFx Aug 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1731
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.1915 last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 1.1756 on usd’s broad-based strength in post-NFP trading on Friday and yesterday’s break of this support suggests MT upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1695/97, however, support at 1.1683 should remain intact, yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1850 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 1.1890/00, then 1.1915 later.

Pay attention to the release of German ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 58.0 and -68.8 vs previous readings of 59.3 and -80.9 respectively.

920

AceTraderFx Aug 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1734
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.1915 last Thursday, subsequent selloff to 1.1723 in Asia yesterday on usd’s broad-based strength suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1695/97, however, support at 1.1683 should remain intact, yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1807 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 1.1840/50, then 1.1915 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia consumer sentiment, wage price index, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm), EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.

921

AceTraderFx Aug 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1807
Despite the single currency’s selloff from last Thursday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1915 to 1.1712 yesterday, subsequent rally to 1.1816 the same day suggests the first leg of correction has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1840/50, however, resistance at 1.1880/90 should remain intact and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1755/60 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 1.1723 later.

Data to be released on Thursday :

New Zealand food price index, UK RICS housing survey, Japan corporate goods price, machine tool orders, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, France ILO unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, and U.S. import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.

922

AceTraderFx Aug 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1812
Although price has retreated after the single currency’s rally from Wednesday’s low at 1.1712 to 1.1864 yesterday and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals the first leg of correction from last Thursday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1915 has ended there, upside bias remains and above 1.1864 would extend to 1.1890/93 before prospect of down.

On the downside, only below 1.1794 would indicate said recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 1.1781.

Data out on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, PPI output, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activity.
Swiss producer and import prices, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, EU employment change, trade balance, GDP, Canada manufacturing sales.
U.S. labour costs, productivity, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.

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923

AceTraderFx Aug 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1844
Despite the single currency’s fall to 1.1712 last Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 1.1864 Thursday suggests correction from August’s 2-year peak at 1.1915 has ended there and as price has recovered after Friday’s retreat to 1.1783, upside bias remains and above 1.1864 would extend to 1.1893/95 after consolidation, however, aforesaid top should hold on first testing, yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1783 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.1756, below would bring re-test of 1.1712 later this week.

Data to be released today :
UK Rightmove house price, Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization and U.S. NY Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing index on Monday.

924

AceTraderFx Aug 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Aug 2020 02:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1878
Despite the single currency’s fall to 1.1712 last Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 1.1880 yesterday and intra-day break above this level suggests correction from August’s 2-year peak at 1.1915 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for a re-test of said top, break would extend Medium Term upmove to 1.1935, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1950/60 and yield retreat later this week.

On the downside, only below 1.1783 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.1756, below would bring re-test of 1.1712 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand GDT price index, and U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook.

1 Like
925

AceTraderFx Aug 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1942
Although price has eased after the single currency’s rise above August’s previous high at 1.1915 to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals Medium Term upmove has once again resumed, upside bias remains and above said resistance would extend to psychological 1.2000 handle after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 1.1880 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1830/40 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand PPI inputs, PPI outputs, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU current account, HICP, core HICP, Canada CPI, core CPI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, FOMC meeting minutes.

926

AceTraderFx Aug 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1848
The single currency’s selloff from yesterday’s Asian high at 1.1952 to as low as 1.1831 in New York afternoon after the release of FOMC minutes suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top at Tuesday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1783, however, oversold condition would keep price above 1.1755/56 and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.1915 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of 1.1965 early next week.

In the absence of major economic data from EU today, one should pay attention to the release of minutes from ECB’s last meeting at 11:30GMT.

927

AceTraderFx Aug 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1874
Despite the single currency’s fall from 1.1868 to 1.1803 yesterday, subsequent rally on usd’s broad-based weakness and intra-day break above said 1.1868 resistance suggests the 1st leg of correction from Tuesday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain to 1.1880/85, however, resistance at 1.1915 should remain intact and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1830/31 would revive bearishness for weakness to 1.1803, break would yield stronger retracement of Medium Term upmove to 1.1783 early next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, CBI trends orders, Japan core nationwide CPI, nationwide CPI, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, consumer confidence.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, new housing price index, and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales.

928

AceTraderFx Aug 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1803
Euro’s decline from last Tue’s fresh 2-year peak of 1.1965 to as low as 1.1755 on Fri due to broad-based rebound in the greenback suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and despite intra-day recovery, outlook remains mildly bearish for marginal weakness after initial consolidation in Asia today, loss of downward momentum should keep price above daily sup at 1.1712.

Only a daily close above 1.1831 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger gain to 1.1870/80 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released later :
New Zealand retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.
Germany import prices.
U.S. Chicago Fed national activity on Monday.

929

AceTraderFx Aug 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1797
Euro’s decline from last Tue’s fresh 2-year peak of 1.1965 to as low as 1.1755 on Fri due to broad-based rebound in the greenback suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and as price has retreated after yesterday’s rebound to 1.1849, downside bias remains and below 1.1755 would bring stronger retracement of medium-term decline to 1.1712 before prospect of rebound later.

Only a daily close above 1.1831 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger gain to 1.1870/80 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Pay attention to the release of German Ifo business climate and current conditions at 08:00GMT. Street forecasts are 92.1 and 87.0 vs previous readings of 90.5 and 84.5 respectively.

930

AceTraderFx Aug 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1829
Euro’s rebound from 1.1784 to 1.1844 yesterday suggests choppy trading above last Friday’s low at 1.1755 would continue and above Monday’s high at 1.1849 would yield stronger retracement of decline from August’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 to 1.1868/70, however, resistance at 1.1882/85 should limit upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, only below 1.1784 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of 1.1755, break would extend weakness to 1.1720/30.

In the absence of major economic data from the EU today, pay attention to comments from ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, who is scheduled to speak at 11:30GMT.

931

AceTraderFx Aug 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1838
Despite euro’s retreat to 1.1773 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound suggests further choppy trading above last Friday’s low at 1.1755 would continue with upside bias and above Friday’s reaction high at 1.1849 would extend marginally, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below resistance at 1.1880/82 and yield another fall.

On the downside, below 1.1773 is needed to revive bearishness for a re-test of aforesaid low, break would extend decline from August’s 2-year peak at 1.1965 to 1.1720/30.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia capital expenditure, building CapEx, Japan total industrial activity.
Swiss GDP, France business climate, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales.
U.S. GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada current account, average weekly earnings.

932

AceTraderFx Aug 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1814
Despite the single currency’s brief but sharp rise to 1.1901 in New York yesterday on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s opening remarks, subsequent selloff to 1.1763 due to the rally in U.S. yields suggests recovery from last Friday’s low at 1.1755 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from August’s 2-year peak at 1.1965 to 1.1720/30 later.

On the upside, only above 1.1849 would dampen daily bearishness and risk gain to 1.1882 but 1.1901 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI,k Tokyo CPI.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment import prices, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, budget balance.

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933

AceTraderFx Aug 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Aug 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1914

The single currency’s rally to 1.1919 on Friday and intra-day break above this level suggests correction from August’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 has ended earlier at 1.1755 and consolidation with upside bias remains for 1.1952, above would confirm this view and yield re-test of said resistance, break would extend Medium Term upmove to 1.1980/90 later this week, however, 1.2000 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 1.1868 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1844/49 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released today :
Japan industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, housing starts, construction orders, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Australia business inventories.

UK market holiday, Swiss retail sales, Italy GDP, consumer price, CPI (EU norm), Germany CPI, HICP.

Canada building permits, producer prices and U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

934

AceTraderFx Sept 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Sept 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1941
The single currency’s rally from 1.1884 yesterday and re-test of August’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.1965 suggests MT upmove would resume after consolidation and extend to 1.1985/90, however, loss of momentum would keep price below psychological 1.2000 handle and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 1.1884 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1868 before prospect of rebound.

Although there is a slew of manufacturing PMIs to be released from the eurozone today, pay particular attention to Germany’s unemployment data at 07:55GMT. Street forecasts for unemployment change and unemployment rate are 0k and 6.4% vs previous readings of -18k and 6.4% respectively.