AceTraderFx Sept 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1912
Despite the single currency’s rally to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 in New York morning yesterday, subsequent selloff to 1.1902 suggests Medium Term upmove has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen, however, support at 1.1885 should remain intact and yield another rebound later, above 1.1963/65 would bring re-test of 1.2011 later.
On the downside, only below 1.1885 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1868, then to 1.1849 before prospect of a rebound later this week.
Pay attention to release of EU producer prices at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts for mm and yy are 0.5% and -3.4% vs previous readings of 0.7% and -3.7% respectively.
AceTraderFx Sept 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1843
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 on Tuesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1823 yesterday on usd’s broad-based strength suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1763/70, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1720/30 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1902 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 1.1929 but 1.1965 should hold.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Swiss CPI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labour costs, productivity, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx Sept 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1853
Despite the single currency’s rise to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 on Tuesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1790 yesterday on suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1763/70, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1720/30 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 1.1902 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 1.1929 but 1.1965 should hold.
Data to be released on Friday :
Australia retail sales, Germany industrial orders.
France budget balance, current account, UK Markit construction PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1839
Despite the single currency’s brief break of last Thursday’s low at 1.1790 to 1.1765 in post-NFP trading on Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1854 suggests the decline from last Tuesday’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1865 would add credence to this view and extend to 1.1929/30 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1782 would revive bearishness for a stronger retracement of Medium Term upmove to 1.1755, then to 1.1700/10 before rebound occurs.
Pay attention to the release of German industrial output mm and yy at 06:00GMT.
Street forecasts 5.4% and 12.1% vs previous readings of 8.9% and -11.7% respectively.
AceTraderFx Sept 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/US
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1806
Despite the single currency’s brief break of last Thur’s low at 1.1790 to 1.1765 in post-NFP trading on Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1854 suggests the decline from last Tue’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1865 would add credence to this view and extend to 1.1929/30 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1782 would revive bearishness for a stronger retracement of MT upmove to 1.1755, then to 1.1700/10 before rebound occurs.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Japan all household spending, current account, GDP delfator, GDP, trade balance, Economy Watchers current, Economy Watchers outlook, machine tool orders Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, France non-farm payrolls, current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Italy retail sales, EU employment change, GDPm
Canada leading index.
AceTraderFx Sept 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1773
Euro’s intra-day resumption of decline from September’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1758 in Australia today suggests price would head to 1.1710/12, then lower to 1.1697 after minor consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 1.1650/60 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1827 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1854/65 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand manufacturing sales, ANZ business confidence, ANZ activity outlook, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, Japan machine tool orders.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada housing starts, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Sept 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1808
Despite yesterday’s resumption of decline from Sep’s 1.2011 peak to a near 4-week trough of 1.1754 in Europe, subsequent rally to 1.1833 signals 1st leg of correction is over and sideways swings are seen ahead of ECB’s monetary policy announcement, reckon 1.1900/10 would cap present rise and yield strong retreat.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1782 would bring re-test of 1.1754, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above daily sup at 1.1712.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand manufacturing sales, ANZ business confidence, ANZ activity outlook, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, Japan machine tool orders.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada housing starts, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Sept 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1835
Despite euro’s intra-day jump to 1.1917 in post-ECB New York morning, subsequent selloff to 1.1811 on renewed broad-based usd’s strength due to safe-haven buying on weakness in U.S. stocks suggests choppy trading below Sep’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 would continue with downside bias, a daily close below 1.1800 would bring re-test of 1.1754 (Wed low) next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1880/90 dampens daily bearish view and may risk another rise towards 1.1917.
Apart from eco. releases, we have many ECB official scheduled to speak at a Eurodi Financial Forum in Berlin as well as EuroGroup meeting in Berlin (please refer to our EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Sept 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1840
Despite euro’s intra-day jump to 1.1917 in post-ECB New York morning on Thursday, subsequent selloff to 1.1811 on renewed broad-based usd’s strength due to safe-haven buying on weakness in U.S. stocks suggests choppy trading below September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 would continue with downside bias, a daily close below 1.1800 would bring re-test of 1.1754 (Wed low) next week.
On the upside, only above 1.1880/90 dampens daily bearish view and may risk another rise towards 1.1917.
Data to be released later today :
China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity, industrial output, capital utilization.
UK Rightmove house price and EU industrial production on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1867
The single currency’s rebound to 1.1887 yesterday on usd’s weakness suggests early pullback from last Thursday’s high at 1.1917 has ended at 1.1811 the same day and consolidation with upside bias remains for re-test of said resistance, break would extend upmove from last Wednesday’s 4-week trough at 1.1754 to 1.1935/40 before prospect of retreat later this week.
On the downside, only below 1.1811 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk weakness to 1.1780/85 but support at 1.1754 should remain intact.
Pay attention to the release of Germany ZEW economic sentiment and current conditions at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 69.8 and -72.0 vs previous readings of 71.5 and -81.3 respectively.
AceTraderFx Sept 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1833
Despite the single currency’s rebound to 1.1900 yesterday, subsequent sharp retreat to 1.1840 and intra-day break below this level suggests further choppy trading below last Thursday’s high at 1.1917 would continue with downside bias and below 1.1811 (reaction low) would extend weakness to 1.1782/90, however, last Wednesday’s near 4-week bottom at 1.1754 should hold on 1st testing, yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 1.1900 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 1.1917, break would risk stronger retracement of decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1960/65.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, core PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, BoC core CPI, core CPI.
AceTraderFx Sept 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1781
The single currency’s selloff from yesterday’s European high at 1.1882 to as low as 1.1789 in post-FOMC New York, then lower to 1.1769 today suggests early recovery from last Wednesday’s near 4-week trough at 1.1754 has ended at 1.1917 last Thursday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 to 1.1730/35 later.
On the upside, only above 1.1854 would dampen daily bearishness and risk stronger gain to 1.1882, then 1.1900 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Japan BoJ interest rate decision.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, and Canada ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx Sept 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1851
Despite the single currency’s initial fall to a 1-month bottom at 1.1738 in Asia yesterday, subsequent rally to as high as 1.1852 near New York closing and intra-day break above this level suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1882, however, resistance at 1.1900 may hold and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 1.1789 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for stronger weakness to 1.1754, then 1.1738 again.
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI.
Germany producer price index, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Italay industrial orders, industrial sales, EU current account.
U.S. current account, leading index change, University of Michigan sentiment index, and Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Sept 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1856
Despite the single currency’s initial fall to a 1-month bottom at 1.1738 on Thursday, subsequent rally to as high as 1.1870 on Friday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 1.1882, however, resistance at 1.1900 may hold and yield retreat later.
On the downside, only below 1.1789 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and turn outlook bearish for stronger weakness to 1.1754, then 1.1738 again.
In the absence of major economic data, pay attention to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who is due to speak at an online meeting of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly at 12:45GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1768
Although the single currency has recovered after yesterday’s selloff from 1.1871 to a 1-month bottom at 1.1731 on usd’s broad-based strength and minor consolidation would be seen, as said move signals early decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 has resumed, downside bias remains and below 1.1731 would extend to 1.1697 before prospect of a much-needed correction later this week due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only above 1.1827 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1870/71 before down.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK CBI trends orders and EU consumer confidence.
U.S. redbook, existing home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Sept 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1687
The single currency’s fall below Monday’s low at 1.1731 to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1693 yesterday on usd’s continued strength suggests decline from September’s fresh 2-year peak at 1.2011 has resumed and intra-day break below this level would pressure price to 1.1640/50, however, 1.1601 would contain downside due to loss of momentum and yield a much-needed correction later this week.
On the upside, only above 1.1774 would indicate a temporary trough is made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1797, then 1.12827 before down.
There is a slew of manufacturing and services PMIs due today from the euro area but one should also keep an eye out for Germany’s Ifo consumer sentiment at 06:00GMT. Street forecast is -1.0 vs previous reading of -1.8. Elsewhere, Germany’s Financie Minister Olaf Scholx will present the 2021 draft budget at 11:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1676
The single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1652 on usd’s continued strength yesterday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 remains in progress and intra-day rebound on short-covering would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall later, below 1.1652 would extend to 1.1630/40, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1601 and yield correction.
On the upside, only above 1.1718 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1767 before prospect of another retreat.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports.
France business climate, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permit, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, new home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx Sept 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1667
The single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1627 on usd’s continued strength yesterday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 remains in progress and subsequent rebound on short-covering would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall later, below 1.1627 would extend to 1.1600/01, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1570/80 and yield correction.
On the upside, only above 1.1718 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1767 before prospect of another retreat.
Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, and Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx Sept 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Sept 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1623
The single currency’s fall to a near 2-month bottom at 1.1613 on usd’s continued strength on Friday suggests decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 remains in progress and subsequent rebound on short-covering would yield consolidation before prospect of another fall later, below 1.1613 would extend to 1.1580/90, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1560/64 and yield correction.
On the upside, only above 1.1718 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1767 before prospect of another retreat.
Data to be released today :
Japan leading indicator, coincident index.
And U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major