AceTraderFx Nov 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Nov 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1642
Although euro has rebounded after yesterday’s resumption of decline from October’s peak at 1.1880 to a 1-month low at 1.1623, as 1.1655 (Europe) has capped recovery, consolidation with mild downside bias is seen, however, loss of momentum should prevent steep drop below September’s 1.1613 bottom and yield a much-needed correction.
On the upside, above 1.1656/61 would bring stronger retracement to 1.1704, break, 1.1708, then 1.1758/60.
Although there are no major data from the euro zone today, we have ECB President Christine Lagarde and a couple of other officials scheduled to speak in the Eurogroup meeting at 08:10 GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Nov 2020 03:20GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1724
Despite yesterday’s selloff from 1.1770 and then brief break of September’s 1.1613 low to a 3-month trough of 1.1604 in Asia on safe-haven usd buying as U.S. election results tightened, subsequent rise in tandem with rally in global stocks to 1.1745 suggests temporary low is made and as price has rebounded from 1.1681 in New York, consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1770, 1.1787/88.
On the downside, only below 1.1681 risks stronger retracement to 1.1651/56, then 1.1629.
On the calendar front, euro zone will release retail sales MM/YY at 10:00 GMT with street forecasts at -1.0% and 2.8% respectively versus prior readings of 4.4% and 3.7%. Traders should remain cautious on any U.S. presidential election headlines as volatility is expected.
AceTraderFx Nov 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Nov 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1813
Although euro has retreated after yesterday’s rally from 1.1712 (Asia) to a 9-day high of 1.1859 in New York, subsequent rebound from 1.1792 in post-FOMC to 1.1846 in Australia today suggests pullback has possibly ended and intra-day weakness would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise to 1.1880 (October’s high), break, 1.1900/10.
On the downside, only below 1.1770 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1740/45, then back to 1.1712/15.
On the calendar front, there is a slew of data from euro zone today, please refer to our EI page for more details. Traders should remain cautious of U.S. election related headlines and development of coronavirus cases.
AceTraderFx Nov 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Nov 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1888
Despite euro’s resumption of decline from September’s 2-year peak at 1.2011 to a 3-month bottom at 1.1603 last Wednesday, subsequent erratic rise to a 1-1/2 month high at 1.1890 in New York on Fri, then intra-day brief break there as U.S. Biden wins presidency suggests correction has ended and further headway to 1.1925/30 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1965 should cap upside today.
On the downside, only below 1.1846/52 risks stronger retracement to 1.1792/96, break, 1.1770 before rebound.
On the data, Germany will release exports, imports, trade balance and current account at 07:00 GMT, followed at EU Sentix index at 09:30. Also, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 09:25 GMT via videoconference at the Green Horizon Summit…
AceTraderFx Nov 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1814
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s 3-month trough at 1.1603 to a 7-week high at 1.1919 in New York morning yesterday, subsequent fall to 1.1796 on usd’s broad-based strength due to rise in U.S. yields suggests temporary top is made and stronger retracement to 1.1755/60 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1724 (61.8% r) should hold.
On the upside, only above 1.1880/90 would risk re-test of 1.1919, break may head to 1.1960/65.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers outlook, Economy Waters current, China PPI, CPI, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
UK BRC retail sales, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France ILO unemployment rate, industrial output, Italy industrial output, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Nov 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1823
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s 3-month trough at 1.1603 to a 7-week high of 1.1919 on Monday, subsequent fall to 1.1796 on usd’s strength due to rise in U.S. yields, then 1.1781 yesterday suggests temporary top is made and retracement to 1.1760/65 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1724 (61.8% r) should hold, yield rebound.
On the upside, only abv 1.1855/60 would risk gain to 1.1880/90, then possibly 1.1919.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan machine tool orders.
France market holiday, UK NIESR GDP estimate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, market holiday, and Canada market holiday.
AceTraderFx Nov 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1777
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s 3-month trough at 1.1603 to a 7-week high at 1.1919 on Monday, subsequent fall to 1.1781 on Tuesday, then 1.1746 yesterday suggests temporary top is made and stronger retracement to 1.1700/05 would be seen after consolidation but 1.1681 should hold today.
On the upside, only above 1.1833/43 would risk gain to 1.1880/90, above may bring re-test of 1.1919.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price index, machinery orders, tertiary industry activity, Australia consumer inflation expectation.
UK RICS housing price balance, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, GDP, Germany CPI, HICP, EU industrial production.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Federal budget and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx Nov 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1810
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s 3-month trough at 1.1603 to a 7-week high at 1.1919 on Monday, subsequent fall to 1.1746 on Wednesday suggests first leg of correction has ended and yesterday’s rebound to 1.1823 may head to 1.1835/45 before prospect of another decline but 1.1724 (61.8% r) should hold.
On the upside, only above 1.1859 would risk gain to 1.1885/90, break, 1.1919 again.
On the data front, euro zone will release a slew of data with focus on EU GDP QQ/YY at 10:00 GMT, street forecasts are for 12.7%/-4.3%, which are unchanged from previous readings. We also have a few ECB officials scheduled to speak, please refer to our EI page for more details.
AceTraderFx Nov 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1840
Euro’s intra-day break above Friday’s 1.1837 high on risk sentiment due to rise in U.S. futures suggests first leg of correction from last Monday’s 7-week 1.1919 peak has ended at 1.1746 on Wednesday and mild upside bias to 1.1861 would be seen, however, reckon 1.1880/90 should hold and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 1.1800 would indicate correction has possibly ended and head to 1.1749, break, 1.1746 again.
On the data front, Italy will release CPI and CPI (EU norm) at 09:00 GMT and we have a few ECB officials scheduled to speak later, please refer to our EI page for more details.
AceTraderFx Nov 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1865
As euro has rebounded after retreat from yesterday’s 1.1868 (Europe) high to 1.1815 in New York, suggesting pullback has ended and further headway to 1.1890 would be seen after consolidation but break needed to bring re-test of last Monday’s 7-week high at 1.1919, above, 1.1960/65.
On the downside, only below 1.1815 would dampen bullish view and risk weakness to 1.1800, then 1.1788/89.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand GDT price index.
Italy trade balance, EU construction output.
Canada wholesale trade, housing starts, and U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.
AceTraderFx Nov 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1854
Despite euro’s resumption of upmove from last Wednesday’s 1.1746 low to 1.1893 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading below November’s 7-week peak at 1.1919 would continue and below 1.1815 would head to 1.1788/90 but 1.1746 should hold, yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 1.1893 would revive bullishness for re-test of 1.1919, break would extend uptrend from November’s 3-month trough at 1.1603 to 1.1940/45.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand PPI inputs, PPI outputs, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, wage price index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU HICP, core HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, and Canada CPI, core CPI.
AceTraderFx Nov 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1839
Euro’s intra-day fall and break of 1.1844 support suggests near term upmove from last Wednesday’s 1.1746 low has made a temporary top at 1.1893 on Tuesday and consolidation would be seen before prospect of another decline, below 1.1815 would head to 1.1800 but 1.1788/90 should hold, yield another bounce.
On the upside, only above yesterday’s New York 1.1877 high would head back to 1.1891/93, break would bring re-test of November’s 1.1919 peak.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production, EU current account, UK CBI trends orders.
Canada ADP employment change and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, existing home sales, leading index change, KC Fed manufacturing activity on Thursday.
AceTraderFx Nov 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1876
Despite euro’s retreat from this week’s high at 1.1893 (Tuesday) to 1.1817 in Europe yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1882 in New York on return of risk sentiment on news that U.S. will resume stimulus talks suggests pullback has ended and re-test of November’s 7-week 1.1919 peak would be seen after consolidation, break would extend uptrend from November’s 3-month trough at 1.1603 to 1.1935/40.
On the downside, only below 1.1815/17 would risk stronger retracement to 1.1788/90 but 1.1746 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Australia retail sales, Germany producer price index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales.
Canada new housing price index, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos and EU consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Nov 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1873
Euro’s retreat from 1.1890 to 1.1851 on Friday suggests choppy trading below last Tuesday’s 1-week high at 1.1893 would continue and intra-day rebound from 1.1852 (New Zealand) on rise in U.S. futures would bring consolidation before prospect of another fall, however, reckon 1.1788/90 would remain intact, yield another bounce.
Above 1.1893 may bring re-test of November’s 7-week peak of 1.1919, break, 1.1936/41 while below 1.1788/90 risks weakness to 1.1746/51.
Today is PMI day in euro zone, street forecasts are 53.1 and 42.5 for Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI versus previous readings of 54.8 and 46.9. Traders should keep an eye out for Covid-19 vaccine related headlines.
AceTraderFx Nov 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1843
Despite yesterday’s break above 1.1890/93 res area to a 13-day high of 1.1906 in Europe, subsequent selloff to 1.1800 in New York due to robust U.S. PMI data suggests choppy trading below November’s 7-week peak at 1.1919 would continue and intra-day rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 1.1759/60.
On the upside, only above 1.1875/80 may risk gain back to 1.1906, break, 1.1919.
On the data front, Germany will release GDP at 07:00 GMT and focus will be on Ifo data due out at 09:00 GMT. Street forecasts for business climate, current conditions, and expectations are 90.1/87.0/93.5 versus prior readings of 92.7/90.3/95.0. If actual data will be lower, we may see euro weakness again. Also, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 14:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1901
Despite Monday’s selloff from 1.1906 to 1.1800 on upbeat U.S. data, subsequent rebound to 1.1905 in Asia today suggests pullback has ended and re-test of November’s 7-week 1.1919 peak would be seen after consolidation, break would extend recent upmove to 1.1935/40 but 1.1960/65 should hold, yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 1.1842 (New York low) would risk weakness back to 1.1800, break, 1.1781/88.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia construction work done, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. mortgage applications, building permits, personal income, personal spending, core PCE index, durable goods, GDP, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, new home sales and FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Nov 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1924
Despite yesterday’s retreat from European 11-week high at 1.1929 to 1.1833, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1926 in New York suggests pullback has ended and recent upmove from November’s 1.1603 trough would resume after consolidation and head to 1.1960/65 before prospect of retreat due to overbought condition.
On the downside, only below 1.1883 would indicate temporary top is made and risks weakness to 1.1842/47, break, 1.1800.
On the data front, Germany will release GfK consumer sentiment at 07:00 GMT, with street forecasts at -5.0, versus previous readings of -3.1. Also, we have ECB’s executive board member Philip Lane scheduled to speak at 12:00 GMT followed by ECB board member Isabel Schnabel at 13:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Nov 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1912
Although euro’s strong retreat from Thursday’s fresh 11-week high of 1.1940 to 1.1886 due to intra-day broad-based recovery in usd suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound in holiday-thin N. American session has retained bullishness for further gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below 2020 peak at 1.2011 (Sep).
Only a daily close below 1.1883 (Wed’s low) would risk stronger retracement twd 1.1842 before prospect of another rise on Monday.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, consumer .
Canada budget balance.
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AceTraderFx Nov 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Nov 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1968
Euro’s resumption of recent upmove to an 11-week high of 1.1964 (New York) on Friday due to renewed risk sentiment suggests price is en route to 2020 2-year peak at 1.2011 (Sep) after consolidation, a daily close above there would encourage for further headway toward next projected target at 1.2065 later.
On the downside, only below 1.1915 (European low Fri) signals temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1883/86 before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released later today:
Japan industrial output, retail sales, New Zealand business outlook, Australia business inventories, China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI.
Swiss retail sales, KOF indicator, Italy CPI, Germany CPI, HICP.
Canada current account, producer prices, U.S. Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing on Monday.
AceTraderFx Dec 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Dec 2020 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1943
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent upmove to a fresh 12-week high of 1.2003 in New York morning, failure to re-test Sep’s 2-year peak of 1.2011 and subsequent selloff to as low as 1.1925 due to month-end demand for usd suggests temporary top has been made, as long as 1.1883/86 sup holds, prospect of another rebound towards 1.2000 remains.
Only a daily close below 1.1883 would shift risk to the downside from stronger correction towards 1.1800 later this week.
Although price has staged a rebound in Asia n fresh buying interest (bargain hunting), as yesterday’s decline signals recent upmove has made temporary top, consolidation with downside bias is seen for another fall, reckon sup at 1.1883-86 would contained weakness.
Offers are tipped at 1.1955/65 and more above with fairly large stops reported above 1.2015. Bids are noted at 1.1925/15 with stops below 1.1880.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major