AceTraderFx Mar 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2060
Euro’s decline from 1.2112 to 1.2043 yesterday suggests correction from Tuesday’s 1.1992 low has possibly ended and initial range trading is in store before weakness towards 1.1992 but break there needed to extend early fall from last Thursday’s 6-week peak at 1.2242 towards Feb’s bottom at 1.1953 ‘later’.
On the upside, only above 1.2112 dampens present bearish scenario and may risk stronger gain to 1.2139/41.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia retail sales, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan consumer confidence.
UK Markit construction PMI, EU retail sales, unemployment rate.
Canada labor productivity and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport.
AceTraderFx Mar 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1958
Euro’s intra-day break of Thursday’s 1.1962 low suggests re-test of February’s 2-month trough at 1.1953 would be forth coming next where a break there would extend recent downtrend towards next downside retracement target at 1.1898 next week.
On the upside, expect 1.2000/10 to hold for this move and only a daily close above 1.2053 (New York high) dampens bearish view, risks stronger recovery to 1.2080/90.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (see EI page for details), however, market’s focus is U.S. jobs data at 13:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Mar 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1925
Despite resumption of recent decline to a 3-month trough of 1.1894 in New York last Friday after robust U.S. jobs report, intra-day short-covering rebound would bring initial choppy swings before prospect of further weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1846.
Only a daily close above 1.1977 signals temporary low is made, then risk is seen for a stronger retracement towards 1.1992.
On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output, then EU Sentix index
AceTraderFx Mar 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1845
Although euro’s intra-day brief break of Monday’s fresh 3-month low at 1.1845 confirms recent decline from January’s 1.2349 peak remains in progress, loss of near term downward momentum is likely to keep price above sup at 1.1800 and risk has increased for a much-needed correction to take place.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1894 (Friday’s low, now res) needed to signal temporary bottom is made and yield stronger retracement to 1.1935/45 before prospect of another fall later.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our Economic Indicator page for details n pay attention to EU’s Q4 GDP at 10:00GMT, a weaker-than-expected reading will weigh on recent falling single currency vs usd n sterling.
AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1889
Euro’s intra-day rally from Tuesday’s 3-month trough at 1.1836 (Asia) to as high as 1.1915 in Europe due to broad-based usd’s weakness on the back of falling US yields and gain in global stocks suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store.
As long as 1.1866 holds, marginal gain is seen but reckon 1.1953 (February low, now res) would cap upside and yield decline but below 1.1852 needed to extend weakness towards 1.1800 later this week.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI.
France industrial output, Italy producer price index.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Mar 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1919
Although yesterday’s intra-day wild swings ended with euro ratcheting higher to 1.1929 near New York close, suggesting corrective rise from Tuesday’s fresh 3-month bottom at 1.1836 would extend marginal gain, reckon upside would falter well below 1.1992 (Feb low, now res) and yield decline.
On the downside, below 1.1869 (Wednesday low) signals said recovery has ended, then price should head back towards 1.1869.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand food price index, Japan corporate goods price index, Australia consumer inflation expectations.
UK RICS housing price balance, EU ECB refinancing rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1985
Euro’s intra-day rally above 1.1953 (February low) to as high as 1.1990 in post-ECB New York Thursday suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Tuesday’s 3-month trough at 1.1836 and as long as 1.1929 (New York low) holds, upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.2030/40 before prospect of retreat due to near term overbought condition.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1929 signals said corrective rise has made a top and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 1.1869 early next week.
Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI.
Germany CPI, HICP, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, EU industrial production.
U.S. PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment and Canada capacity utilization, employment change, unemployment rate, wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1955
Despite Friday’s initial strong retreat to 1.1911 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1961 in New York on return of risk sentiment suggests sideways swings are in store, above 1.1990 (Thursday high) would extend corrective rise from March’s 3-month bottom at 1.1836 to 1.2030/35 later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1911 would signal recovery has ended, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness towards 1.1869.
Data to be released today :
Japan machinery orders, tertiary industry activity, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales.
UK Rightmove house price.
Canada housing starts, manufacturing sales, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index on Monday.
AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1925
Despite Friday’s initial strong retreat to 1.1911 (Europe), subsequent rebound to 1.1961 (NY) on return of risk sentiment, then 1.1967 yesterday suggests sideways swings are in store, below 1.1911 indicates correction from Mar’s 3-month trough at 1.1836 over and yields weakness towards 1.1869.
Only above 1.1990 (Thursday’s high) would extend said corrective rise to 1.2030/35 later.
The euro area counties will release a slew of eco. data plus a number of ECB officials are scheduled to speak (pls refer to our EI page for details). Pat attention to Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index at 10:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Mar 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1904
Euro’s break of previous 1.1911 sup to 1.1883 yesterday in New York due to intra-day cross-selling in euro strongly suggests early correction from March’s 3-month low at 1.1836 has ended at 1.1990 last week (Thursday), a daily close below 1.1883 would add credence to this view and yield weakness towards 1.1836.
Only a move back above Tuesday’s 1.1951 high (Fed’s dovish hold perhaps) prolongs choppy trading above 1.1836 and may head back to 1.1967, then 1.1980/90.
The only data due out during European mornings are from the EU at 10:00GMT, these include HICP, core HICP n construction output n market is expected to show muted reaction to them.
AceTraderFx Mar 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1980
Euro’s erratic rise from March’s 3-month trough at 1.1836 to 1.1990 last week (Thursday) suggests Medium Term fall from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) has made a temp. low and despite subsequent fall to 1.1883 (Tuesday), yesterday’s rally to 1.1985 in post-FOMC New York would head to 1.2035.
Trade from long side for 1.2035 but 1.2093 (50% r from 1.2349) should hold.
Below 1.1951, 1.1916, 1.1883.
The euro area-area countries will release a slew of eco. data n ECB President plus some other ECB officials are scheduled to speak later today (please see EI page for details) at various venues but topics are not related to ECB’s monetary policy.
AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1916
Euro’s decline from 1.1988 to as low as 1.1907 yesterday due to broad-based usd’s strength on the back of rising U.S. treasury yields suggests further volatile trading below last week’s high at 1.1990 (Thursday) would continue and downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.1883, a daily close below there would pressure price towards March’s 3-month bottom at 1.1836 later next week.
Only above 1.1951/56 prolongs this week’s choppy swings but only break of 1.1988/90 risks stronger correction of recent decline to 1.2030/35.
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, Australia retail sales, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Germany producer prices.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.
AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1889
Euro’s decline from 1.1988 (Thursday) to 1.1874 Friday suggests the correction from March’s 3-month trough at 1.1836 has ended earlier at 1.1990 and downside bias remains for re-test of said key sup this week after consolidation, break would extend medium-term decline to 1.1800.
On the upside, only above Fri’s 1.1938 high dampens present bearish outlook and risks stronger gain but reckon 1.1970/80 would cap upside.
Data to be released today :
Japan coincident index, leading economic index.
EU current account, Germany Buba monthly report.
U.S. national activity index, existing home sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1933
Despite euro’s decline from last week’s high at 1.1988 to 1.1873 (New Zealand) initially on Monday, subsequent rebound to 1.1946 in New York due to broad-based euro buying suggests further choppy swings inside recent 1.1836-1.1990 range would continue, reckon intra-day upside would falter below 1.1988 and yield another fall later today or tomorrow.
On the downside, below 1.1873 would encourage for weakness towards 1.1836.
The only eco. data due out today are Italy’s industrial orders n industrial sales. We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak during the day, please refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Mar 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1845
Euro’s intra-day weakness on continued broad-based usd’s strength due to risk-off trade suggests price would penetrate March’s 3-month low at 1.1836 next, break there would extend Medium Term downtrend from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 towards projected target at 1.1787 later this week, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1746 sup.
Only a daily close above 1.1873 (Monday low, now res) signals temporary bottom is possibly made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1935/45.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries (pls refer to our EI page for details), pay attention to German as well as EU mfg n services PMIs, if actual readings come in weaker than forecast, one can expect further euro bashing. ECB President Lagarde will speak at a teleconference on “Investing in Climate Action” at 15:40GMT.
AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1812
Euro’s break of previous March’s 1.1836 low to a 4-month trough of 1.1813 (Europe) Wednesday, then intra-day brief break there suggests medium-term decline from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) would pressure price below 1.1800 handle, however, near term loss of downward momentum is expected to keep euro above daily sup at 1.1746 and risk has increased for a correction to take place later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1850 signals temporary bottom is in place and yields stronger retracement to 1.1870/75, break, 1.1910/20 before prospect of another fall next week.
On the eco. front, the only eco. data due out is France’s business climate. There is European Council meeting today n a number of ECB officials are scheduled to speak (pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB President Lagarde will deliver to pre-recorded video messages for a presentation on central bank innovation held during the BIS Innovation Summit 2021.
AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1774
Yesterday’s resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month low at 1.1762 (New York) suggests euro would remain under pressure and yield further weakness after initial consolidation, however, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1710/15 and risk has increased for a minor correction to occur later today or Monday.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1827 (Thursday high) signals temporary bottom is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.1850 but reckon 1.1870/75 should cap upside.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in European morning, pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, street forecast for Mar is 93.2 vs prev. reading of 92.4, a lower than expected reading will triffer renewed euro selling.
The European Council will hold a meeting today n ECB President Lagarde will participate in the Euro Summit.
AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Mar 202103:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1785
Although euro’s rebound to 1.1804 (New York) on Friday due to broad-based usd’s retreat suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Thursday’s 4-month trough at 1.1762 and consolidation is in store, reckon upside would falter well below 1.1850 and yield decline later today or tomorrow.
A firm break of 1.1773 would signal recovery has ended and head towards minor daily sup at 1.1746, ‘loss of momentum’ should keep price above 1.1710/15.
Data to be released today:
U.S. Dallas Fed mfg business index on Monday.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major