AceTraderFx Feb 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2124
Euro’s erratic rise last week from 1.2058 (Wednesday) to 1.2155 on Friday suggests further volatile swings above January’s 6-week trough at 1.2055 would continue and as long as Friday’s 1.2094 low holds, marginal gain can’t be ruled out, however, reckon pivotal res at 1.2190 should cap upside n yield decline later.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.2094 would bring weakness towards 1.2055, break would extend recent decline towards 1.2011.
The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in European morning, pls refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to German retail sales, then mfg PMI releases from Italy, France, Germany and the EU.
AceTraderFx Feb 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2078
Euro’s selloff on Monday from 1.2144 to as low as 1.2056 suggests early correction from January’s 1.2055 low has ended, below would extend recent fall from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2549 towards 1.2011 before prospect of a recovery due to loss of near term downward momentum.
Only above 1.2094/99 ‘prolongs’ volatile swings above 1.2055 and may risk another rise towards 1.2144 but reckon 1.2155 may cap upside.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index
UK nationwide house price, France budget balance, CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy GDP, EU GDP.
U.S. redbook, ISM New York index, labor costs, productivity.
AceTraderFx Feb 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2045
Despite yesterday’s resumption of recent decline from January’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 to a 2-month bottom of 1.2011 in New York, subsequent rebound in tandem with rally in US stocks suggests temporary low is made, a daily close above 1.2055 (January low, now res) is needed to bring stronger retracement to 1.2085/95 but 1.2155 should remain intact this week.
Below 1.2011 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1976 and bring correction later.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, building permits, New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, labour cost index, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Italy Markit services PMI, CPI, CPI (EU norm), France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, HICP, core HICP, producer price index, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, labor costs, productivity, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Feb 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2038 Despite Wed’s marginal weakness to a fresh 2-month trough of 1.2003 (Reuters) in New York morning , failure to penetrate psychological 1.2000 handle and subsequent rebound suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and range trading is in store, above 1.2049/55 res would bring stronger gain towards 1.2087 before retreat.
Only below 1.2000 risks one more fall, however, weakening of downward momentum is likely to keep price above 1.1976 and yield a much-needed correction later today or tomorrow.
Eco. data in the euro area countries is pretty thin today with EU’s Dec retail sales being the only data due out.
We also have some ECB officials scheduled to speak later (please refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx Feb 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1967
Yesterday’s firm break of ‘psychological’ 1.2000 handle and then weakness to a fresh 2-month low at 1.1958 due to continued usd’s strength suggests recent decline from Jan’s 1.2349 high remains in force, however, oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.1898/03 and yield a much-needed minor correction early next week.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2000 signals temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.2040/50.
Ahead of U.S. jobs report, the euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to EI page for details) n pay attention to German industrial orders, if actual reading comes in weaker than forecast, this will give traders another reason for more euro bashing but beware of intra-day rebound due to pre-NFP short covering.
AceTraderFx Feb 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2043
Although Fri’s rally from Asian fresh 2-month trough of 1.1953 (Asia) to as high as 1.2049 in New York after downbeat U.S. jobs report confirms euro’s decline from Jan’s near 33-month peak at 1.2349 has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 1.2087 holds, downside bias remains.
A daily close below 1.2000 signals recovery has ended and brings re-test of 1.1953 later. Only above 1.2087 risks stronger correction of said decline, then price may head back towards 1.2155 ‘later’ this week.
On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output n then EI Sentix investor confidence index. We have participation by ECB President Lagarde in a debate on the ECB Annual Report 2019 at the European Parliament at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2059
Although yesterday’s marginal gain to 1.2066 on renewed usd’s weakness due to return of risk appetite on the back of rally in U.S. stocks suggests recent fall from January’s 1.2349 peak has made a temporary low at Friday’s 2-month trough of 1.1953, near term loss of upward momentum would cap price below minor res at 1.2087 and yield retreat.
On the downside, a daily close below Mon’s 1.2019 low would be 1st signal correction from 1.1953 has ended and yield weakness to 1.2000/03.
On the eco. data front, we have a slew of 2nd-tier data from Germany and Italy (please refer to our EI page for details). Later, we have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at a conference at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2110
Euro’s resumption of near term upmove from Friday’s 2-month bottom at 1.1953 to a 1-week high of 1.2121 in New York yesterday due to continued usd’s weakness suggests recent fall from Jan’s 1.2349 peak has made a low there and as long as 1.2066 (Monday high, now sup) holds, upside bias remains for further gain, overbought condition should cap price well below daily res at 1.2190.
Only a daily close below 1.2066 signals 1st leg of correction from 1.1953 over and risks weakness towards 1.2019 before prospect of rebound later this week.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan corporate goods price index, machine tool orders, China PPI, CPI, Germany CPI, HICP.
France industrial output, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, wholesale inventory, wholesale sales, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Feb 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2115
Euro’s intra-day retreat from Wed’s 11-day high of 1.2143 (Europe) suggests iintial consolidation would be seen before near term upmove from last Fri’s 2-month trough of 1.1953 extends further gain, ‘loss of momentum’ should cap price well below daily res at 1.2222.
On the downside, only a daily close below 1.2089 dampens bullishness and risks stronger retracement of aforesaid rise twd 1.2066.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan market holiday, China market holiday.
UK RICS housing price balance, Germany wholesale price index.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Feb 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2138
Euro’s rebound from 1.2082 (Friday) to 1.2144 yesterday suggests re-test of last week’s 1.2149 high would be forthcoming soon due to renewed usd’s weakness on risk appetite, above would extend upmove from Feb’s 1.1953 trough to 1.2190, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.2222.
Only below 1.2082 dampened bullishness and may risk stronger retracement of said rise to 1.2045/50.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
China market holiday, Japan tertiary industry activity.
France unemployment rate, Italy trade balance, Germany economic sentiment, current conditions, EU employment change, GDP.
Canada housing starts and US NY Fed manufacturing.
AceTraderFx Feb 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2093
Euro’s decline from Tue’s 1.2169 high to 1.2096 in New York due to usd’s broad-based rally in tandem with U.S. treasury yields, then intra-day weakness to 1.2084 in Asia suggests recent upmove from February’s 2-month trough at 1.1953 has made a top and stronger retracement towards 1.2035 (61.8% r) may be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 1.2019 sup would remain intact.
Only a daily close above 1.2123 signals pullback is possibly over and risks re-test of 1.2169, then 1.2090 later.
Economic calendar is pretty light today with EU’s construction output being the only data due out.
AceTraderFx Feb 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2047
Euro’s selloff from 1.2169 (Tuesday) to as low as 1.2024 due to usd’s broad-based rally in tandem with U.S. yields strongly suggests early rise from February’s 2-month bottom at 1.1953 has ended, a daily close below 1.2019 sup would add credence to this view and yield weakness towards there next week.
On the upside, only above 1.2082/84 dampens bearish outlook and may risk stronger gain to 1.2121/23.
Eco data is pretty light today n the only data due out later today is EU’s consumer confidence at 15:00GMT.
We also have ECB Board member Schnabel speaking at 16:15GMT.
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AceTraderFx Feb 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2089
Although this week’s decline from 1.2169 (Tuesday) to 1.2024 on Wednesday suggests recent upmove from February’s 2-month bottom at 11.1953 has possibly ended there, yesterday’s rebound on broad-based usd’s retreat suggests sideways swings are in store with a ‘neutral’ bias.
As long 1.2049 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.2123 can’t be ruled out but reckon 1.2141/44 would cap upside. below 1.2049 signals recovery over and yields subsequent weakness to 1.2019/24.
We have heavy data dump in the euro area countries today, please refer to our EI page for details. pay attention to Germany’s n EU’s mfg n services PMIs at 08:30GMT n 09:00GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Feb 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2123
Euro’s strong rise from 1.2024 (Wednesday) to as high as 1.2144 on Friday due to renewed usd’s weakness on continued risk appetite suggests pullback from last week’s high at 1.2169 (Tuesday) has ended and upmove from February’s 2-month trough at 1.1953 would extend marginal gain, near term loss of momentum would limit upside to 1.2190.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.2083 (Friday low) signals top is made and shifts risk to downside for weakness towards 1.2049.
On the data front, we have key german Ifo data due out at 09:00GMT, pay attention to Ifo business climate for Feb, street forecast is 90.1, if actual reading is higher then expectation, then euro should head higher. ECB President Lagarde will speak at the European Semester Conference at 13:45 GMT.
AceTraderFx Feb 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2172
Euro’s re-test of last week’s high at 1.2169, then intra-day break there in Asia confirms recent rise from February’s 2-month trough at 1.1953 has once gain resumed and would yield further gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below pivotal res at 1.2222.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.2130 (New York low) would be 1st signal temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement towards 1.2092.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, Japan market holiday, China house prices.
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, CBI distributive trades, Swiss producer and import price index, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU HICP, core HICP.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Case-Shiller home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Feb 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2158
Despite euro’s retreat from Tuesday’s 4-week high of 1.2180 (Europe) to 1.2136 in New York, subsequent rebound and intra-day rally in cable suggests upside bias remains for recent upmove from 1.1953 (January) to yield further gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price below res at 1.2222 and bring a much-needed correction.
A daily close below 1.2136 signals temporary top is in place, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement towards 1.2092.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia construction work down, wage price index, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
Germany GDP, France business climate, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, new home sales.
AceTraderFx Feb 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Feb 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2162
Euro’s rebound from 1.2110 in New York yesterday after repeated dovish comments by Fed’s J. Powell suggests re-test of this week’s 1.2180 high would be forthcoming soon, above would extend upmove from Feb’s 2-month trough at 1.1953 towards next chart objective at 1.2222, loss of upward momentum should prevent strong gain and risk has increased for a retracement of said rise.
On the downside, below 1.2110 anytime signals top is made, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness to 1.2092, then towards 1.2063.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia capital expenditure, building capex, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Japan coincident index, leading economic index.
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE price index, PCE price index, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, average weekly earnings, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Mar 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Mar 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2094
Although euro’s decline from last Thursday’s 6-week high at 1.2242 to as low as 1.2064 (New York) Friday due to active safe-haven buying of usd on the back of global stock and bond market rout signals correction from February’s 2-month bottom at 1.1953 has ended, intra-day rebound would bring choppy sideways swings.
As long as 1.2139/41 res holds, further weakness is envisaged but loss of momentum should keep price above daily pivotal sup at 1.2024 today.
Data to be released today:
Australia manufacturing index, business inventories, Japan manufacturing PMI, China manufacturing PMI.
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, CPI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, CPI, EU manufacturing PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, Canada current account, manufacturing PMI.
U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Mar 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Mar 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2037
Although euro’s decline from last week’s high at 1.2242 (Thursday) to as low at 1.2028 yesterday due to continued usd’s buying due to risk-off trade suggests early correction from February’s 2-month bottom at 1.1953 has ended, near term loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.1990/00 may hold and yield recovery.
On the upside, only a daily close above Monday’s 1.2101 high (AUS) would risk stronger retracement to 1.2130/40 before prospect of another fall later this week.
The euro-area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB board member Panetta will speak at a webinar conference at 13:40GMT later today.
AceTraderFx Mar 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Mar 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2090
Despite yesterday’s anticipated resumption of decline from last Thursday’s 6-week peak of 1.2242 to 1.1992 (Europe), subsequent rally due to broad-based usd’s weakness on return of risk appetite suggests temporary low is made and 1-2 days of sideways consolidation is seen.
As long as 1.2139/41 holds, downside bias remains for another fall, below 1.2.16/21 would bring re-test of 1.1992 while break of said res may risk stronger gain to 1.2175/80.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, we have ECB board member Weidmann n other ECB offcials scheduled to speak in European and New York sessions, please refer to our Economic Indicator page for details.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major