AceTraderForex Apr 22: Daily Market Outllook on Major -EUR/USD

Trading Discussion Currencies
1095

AceTraderFx Apr 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2125
Despite euro’s retreat from Thursday’s fresh 8-week high of 1.2149, as long as 1.2092/02 area holds, marginal gain is envisaged but loss of momentum should cap price below 1.2200 and yield retracement of upmove from 1.1705 (March low).

Below 1.2092 confirms temporary top is made and yields a long-overdue correction to 1.2057, then towards 1.1994 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, construction orders, housing starts, consumer confidence, China NBS manufacturing PMI, NBS non-manufacturing PMI, Australia PPI.
France GDP, CPI, producer prices, U.K. nationwide house price, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicators, Italy unemployment rate, GDP, CPI, Germany GDP, EU HICP, GDP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, U. Mich. sentiment, Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.

1096

AceTraderFx May 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2030
Euro’s selloff below previous 1.2057 sup on Friday to a near 1-week low at 1.2017 due to broad-based short covering in usd suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top at Thursday’s 8-week peak of 1.2149 and below 1.1994 would bring stronger correction towards 1.1948 ‘later’ this week.

Only a daily close above 1.2057 yields stronger recovery but 1.2103 (Thursday’s low, now res) should cap upside and yield another fall ahead of Friday’s key U.S. jobs data.

Data to be released today :
Australia AIG manufacturing index, manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy markit manufacturing PMI, France markit manufacturing PMI, Germany markit manufacturing PMI, EU markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada markit manufacturing PMI, U.S. markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

1097

AceTraderFx May 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2053
Euro’s rally on Mon from 1.2014 (Europe) to 1.2075 due to usd’s weakness in New York suggests 1st leg of correction fm Apr’s 8-week peak at 1.2149 has ended and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store.

Expect 1.2116 to cap intra-day gain and yield decline, below 1.2035/40 signals recovery over and yields re-test of 1.2014, then 1.1994 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision.
France budget balance, Swiss consumer confidence, U.K. markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. trade balance, redbook, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durable ex-transport, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports, imports, New Zealand GDT price index.

1098

AceTraderFx May 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2017
Despite euro’s recovery after yesterday’s resumption of recent decline from April’s 8-week peak of 1.2149 to 1.2000 (Europe), outlook remains mildly bearish for one more fall, however, near term loss of downward momentum should keep price above sup at 1.1943 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.2035 (Tuesday’s New York high) signals temporary low is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.2075 before another fall.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Markit services PMI for Germany n the EU at 07:55GMT n 08:00GMT respectively, if actual readings come in below street forecast, euro will fall b4 prospect of recovery. ECB Board member Lane will participate in a financial event at 14:00GMT.

1099

AceTraderFx May 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2006
Despite Wednesday’s resumption of recent decline to a 2-week trough of 1.1987, near term loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall and reckon daily sup at 1.1943 should remain intact and yield a long-overdue retracement.

Above 1.2035 signals temporary low is in place and may head back to 1.2055/65 before prospect of another fall tomorrow.

On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with industrial orders, then EU will release economic bulletin n retail sales. Pay attention to speeches by several ECB officials (pls refer to our EI page for details), ECB President Lagarde will speak at a conference organised by European Commision at 11:25GMT.

1100

AceTraderFx May 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2065
Although Thur’s impressive rise from 1.1994 to 1.2071 (New York) due to renewed usd’s weakness on return of risk appetite suggests early decline from April’s 8-week peak at 1.2149 has made a low at 1.1987 (Wednesday), a daily close above 1.2075 needed to turn outlook bullish for further gain towards 1.2149 next week.

On the downside, a firm break of 1.2035 would signal recovery has ended, then risk would shift to downside for re-test of 1.1987.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB President Lagarde wlll speak at a forum called the State of the Union 2021at 10:00GMT.

1101

AceTraderFx May 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2173
Euro’s rally on Friday in New York from 1.2059 to a 9-week high of 1.2171 due to broad-based usd’s selloff following big miss in U.S. payrolls suggests recent upmove from 1.1705 (March) would extend further gain, overbought condition should cap price below daily pivotal res at 1.2242 (February peak).

On the downside, only below 1.2090 signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.2059 later.

On the data front, the only eco. indicator due out is EU’s Sentix investor confidence for May, street forecast is 14.0 vs prev. reading of 13.1.

1102

AceTraderFx May 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2140
Although euro’s intra-day retreat from Mon’s 10-week peak of 1.2177 to 1.2128 in New York session due to rise in U.S. yields suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, as long as 1.2090 holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below daily pivotal res at 1.2242 and yield a long-overdue correction.

Below 1.2090 anytime confirms temporary top is in place, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 1.2054/59 before prospect of rebound later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan all household spending, China PPI, CPI,
U.K. BRC retail sales, Italy industrial output, Germany wholesale price index, ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectation.
Canada leading index, U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

1103

AceTraderFx May 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2144
Despite euro’s retreat from Tuesday’s fresh 10-week high of 1.2181, as long as 1.2124/28 sup holds, recent upmove would yield marginal gain after consolidation, ‘loss of upward momentum’ should cap price well below daily res at 1.2242 and risk has increased for a long-overdue correction to take place.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.2124 signals temporary top is in place, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness to 1.2054/58 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP, France CPI, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage, CPI, Federal budget.

1104

AceTraderFx May 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2078
Euro’s intra-day selloff in New York session Wednesday from 1.2152 to as low as 1.2066 after volatile swings following release of upbeat U.S. inflation data suggests recent erratic rise from 1.1705 (March) has made a temporary top at Tuesday’s 10-week peak at 1.2181 and downside bias remains for further weakness, oversold condition is expected to keep price well above May’s bottom at 1.1987.

Only a daily close above 1.2116 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk gain to 1.2140/50 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, GDP, NIESR GDP, France CPI, EU industrial production.
US MBA mortgage, CPI, Federal budget.

1105

AceTraderFx May 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2075
Although euro’s rebound from yesterday’s low at 1.2052 (Europe) to 1.2099 in New York due to intra-day retreat in U.S. yields suggests decline from Tuesday’s 10-week peak at 1.2181 has made a temporary bottom, outlook remains bearish for further weakness after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above daily sup at 1.1987.

Only a daily close above 1.2116 dampens bearish view and risks stronger gain to 1.2130/40 before prospect of decline next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia consumer inflation experience.
U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, U. Mich. sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales, wholesales trade.

1106

AceTraderFx May 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Fri’s rally from 1.2072 to 1.2147 on renewed usd’s weakness due to soft U.S. data and yields suggests pullback from last Tuesday’s fresh 10-week peak at 1.2181 has possibly ended, above 1.2152 would bring re-test of said May’s high, overbought condition should cap price below 1.2242 (Feb high).

On the downside, only below 1.2104/07 sup ‘prolongs’ choppy swings below 1.2181 and risks weakness to 1.2072 but reckon 1.2052 should hold.

Data to be released next week :
China house prices, industrial output, retail sales,
U.K. rightmove house price, Japan corporation goods price, machinery orders, Swiss producer/import price, Italy CPI.
Canada housing starts, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing market index on Monday.

1107

AceTraderFx May 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2155
Euro’s gain to 1.2168 (Europe) on Monday suggests pullback from last Tuesday’s 10-week high at 1.2181 has ended last week at 1.2052 (Thursday) and as long as 1.2104/07 holds, upside bias remains for recent upmove from 1.1705 (Mar low) to extend marginal gain, ‘loss of upward momentum’ should cap price well below daily pivotal res at 1.2242.

Below 1.2104 signals top is made, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.2072, then 1.2052 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan GDP, Tertiary industry activities, New Zealand GDT price index
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Italy trade balance, EU employment change, trade balance, GDP.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook.

1108

The thread is still alive. It feels so good that I found something as old as this thread. This clearly shows that you have been sharing legitimate information here because you have been here for so long. I would bookmark this thread and keep visiting it over and over again.

1109

AceTraderFx May 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2179
Euro’s intra-day selloff in New York morning from 1.2238 to as low as 1.2161 due to broad-based usd’s rally in tandem with U.S. yields following release of Fed’s minutes signals recent upmove has made a temporary top at Wednesday’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 and a long-awaited correction has taken place.

Expect price to resume said decline after consolidation but near term oversold condition may limit weakness to 1.2104/07 and only above 1.2200/10 dampens bearishness, risks 1.2233/38.

The euro area countries will release a slew of 2nd-tier eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details). We have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at 08:00GMT, then ECB Preseident Lagards will speak at 12:00GMT.

1110

AceTraderFx May 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2225
As euro has risen again yesterday’s due to renewed risk sentiment on falling U.S. yields after strong retreat from Wednesday’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 to 1.2161, above said res would extend recent upmove marginally, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.2309.

On the downside, below 1.2180 signals intra-day top is in place and heads back to 1.2161, break there needed to revive bearishness for stronger correction towards 1.2127 early next week.

Today is PMI day, France will kick off with Markit manufacturing and service PMI at 07:15 GMT, followed by Germany at 07:30 GMT and then EZ at 08:00 GMT. Market forecast for EZ are 62.5 and 52.3 for manufacturing PMI and services PMI respectively, versus prior readings of 62.9 and 50.5.
We also have ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled to speak at 11:00 GMT in Eurogroup and informal ECONFIN meetings in Lisbon, Portugal, which would be followed by a press conference.

1111

AceTraderFx May 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2180
Euro’s decline from 1.2239 (Asia) to 1.2162 Fri after upbeat U.S. PMI data suggests choppy trading below Wednesday’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 would continuous with downside bias, a firm break of 1.2161 (reaction low) would signal a long-overdue correction of recent upmove has taken place, however, reckon 1.2104/07 would contain weakness.

Only above 1.2210/15 prolongs volatile sideways swings and may risk another rise back to 1.2240/45 but loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2270/80.

No eco. data is due out today, however, we have ECB board member McCaul speaking at a conference at 13:00GMT.

1112

AceTraderFx May 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2225
Yeeterday’s rise from 1.2173 to 1.2229 (New York) due to renewed usd’s weakness on return of risk sentiment suggests choppy trading inside recent 1.2245-1.2161 range would continue with upside bias, above 1.2245 would extend recent upmove from 1.1705 (March) to marginally higher, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.2300.

On the downside, only below 1.2161 shifts risk to the downside for a stronger correction to 1.2127, then later 1.2104/07.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Germany GDP, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, UK PSNB GBP, PSNCR GBP, CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index.

1113

What you’ve shared is pretty detailed and impressive. I shall be looking forward to similar trade updates and hopefully we can discuss in detail about a trade that we both entered.

1114

AceTraderFx May 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2249
Euro’s retreat from Tue’s fresh 4-1/2 month peak of 1.2266 (New York) would bring initial consolidation before prospect of marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price below daily res at 1.2309 and yield a long-overdue correction.

A daily close below 1.2227 (NY low) would be first signal temporary top is made and yield weakness to 1.2087, then 1.2161/62.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, RBNZ rate decision, Australia construction work done, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
France business climate, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA Mortgage.