AceTraderFx May 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 May 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.10171.2187
Yesterday’s selloff from 1.2262 (Asia) to as low as 1.2183 due to broad-based usd’s rebound in New York strongly suggests euro’s recent upmove has made a temporary top at Tue’s fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness towards 1.2161 sup, a daily close below there would yield stronger retracement towards 1.2127.
Only above 1.2240/45 may risk re-test of 1.2266, however, ‘loss of momentum’ should limit gain to 1.2280/90.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia capital expenditure, building capex.
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, non-farm payrolls, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance.
U.S. durable goods, durable ex-transport, durable ex-defence, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, Continuous jobless claims, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada average weekly earnings.
AceTraderFx May 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 May 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2192
Euro’s decline from Tuesday’s fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 to as low as 1.2176 (Asia) yesterday suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top there and subsequent sideways swings in New York would bring initial consolidation before down, a daily close below previous good sup at 1.2261 would pressure price towards 1.2127 early next week.
Only above 1.2235/40 dampens daily bearish view and may risk another rise back to 1.2262/66 which should hold on 1st testing.
Ahead of release of U.S. key inflation data later today, we have date dump from the euro area, pls refer to our Economic Indicator page for details n pay attention to EU’s bus. cimate n eco. sentiment at 09:00GMT.
ECB President Largade n Board member Panetta will participate in virtual G7 FinMin n cenbank Governors’ meeting.
We also have ECB’s Villeroy and Enria speaking at 07:00GMT and 11:00GMT respectively
AceTraderFx May 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 May 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2194
Despite euro’s resumption of decline from last Tuesday’s 4-1/2 month peak of 1.2266 to a near 2-week trough of 1.2133 Friday, subsequent strong bounce in New York due to broad-based usd’s weakness on falling U.S. yields suggests 1st leg of correction over and 1-2 days of sideways swings are in store.
Expect intra-day recovery to falter below 1.2245 and yield retreat but below 1.2133 needed to extend said fall to 1.2104/07.
On the data front, we have some inflation data from the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with CPI and then we have Germany’s CPI n HICP. London market is closed for Spring Bank Holiday.
AceTraderFx Jun 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 01 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2228
Although euro’s strong rebound from 1.2133 (Friday) to 1.2231 yesterday suggests 1st leg of correction from May’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 has ended, near term overbought condition would prevent strong gain and yield retreat, below 1.2184 needed to head back towards 1.2231.
Only above 1.2266 extends recent upmove to 1.2280/90 before prospect of a correction later this week.
Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, please refer to our EI page for details of a slew of eco. data.
Pay attention to German n EU’s mfg PMIs, if actual readings come in stronger than street forecast, the euro will head north.
AceTraderFx Jun 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2222
Despite euro’s strong rise from last week’s low of 1.2133 (Friday) to 1.2254 in New York morning yesterday, subsequent retreat to 1.2212 due to broad-based rebound in the greenback suggests further volatile trading below May’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 would continue with downside bias, below 1.2204 would add credence to this view but 1.2133 should remain intact.
Only above 1.2254 aborts bearish view and risks re-test of 1.2266, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.2300 today and yield correction.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand terms of trade, import prices, export prices.
UK BRC shop price index, Australia GDP, Italy market holiday, Germany retail sales, France budget balance, EU producer prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, and Canada building permits.
AceTraderFx Jun 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2210
Although euro’s decline from 1.2254 (Tuesday) to 1.2165 yesterday suggests further choppy trading below May’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 would continue, subsequent rebound due to falling U.S. yields signals volatile swings inside recent 1.2266-1.2133 range would be seen before a possible breakout occurs after Friday’s release of key U.S. jobs data.
As long as 1.2254 holds, downside bias remains but only below 1.2165 would head back towards 1.2133 whilst above 1.2254 risks re-test of 1.2266, break extends recent upmove to 1.2290/00 later.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, retail sales, trade balance, imports, exports, Japan services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.
Germany market holiday, Markit services PMI, Swiss market holiday, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. ADP employment change, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Jun 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2123
Euro’s intra-day selloff in New York session Thur on the back of jump in U.S. yields after robust U.S. ADP payrolls and then break of last week’s 1.2133 low to 1.2119 confirms decline from May’s fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 has once again resumed, oversold condition is expected to keep price above 1.2052 sup and bring recovery later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2165 (Wed low, now res) signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger gain to 1.2208/18.
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan all household spending, UK Markit construction PMI, EU retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transport, factory orders.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate, labor productivity rate, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Jun 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.4171
Despite resumption of recent erratic fall from May’s high at 1.2266 to a near 3-week low at 1.2105 (Europe) on Friday, intra-day jump to 1.2185 after U.S. payrolls missed market forecast strongly suggests pullback has ended and consolidation with upside bias is seen, above 1.2208/18 res area would encourage for gain towards 1.2266 later this week.
Only a daily close below 1.2133 aborts bullish view and risks re-test of 1.2105, however, ‘loss of downward momentum’ should keep price above 1.2052.
Thee only economic data due out today is Germany’s industrial oders. We also have ECB members Holzmann n Jochnick scheduled to speak at 08:00GMT n 12:30GMT respectively.
AceTraderFx Jun 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2185
Euro’s rally from 1.2105 to 1.2185 on Friday, then yesterday’s gain to 1.2201 (New York) strongly suggests early correction from May’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 has ended, intra-day retreat would bring consolidation before prospect of further gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below last week’s high at 1.2254.
On the downside, only a daily close below Mon’s 1.2145 low aborts bullish view and may risk weakness towards 1.2105.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, GDP deflator, GDP, Economy Watchers outlook, Economy Watchers current, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
UK BRC retail sales, Germany industrial output, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales, EU employment change, GDP, ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, trade balance, exports, imports, and U.S. trade balance, redbook, JOLTS job openings.
AceTraderFx Jun 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2176
Despite yesterday’s sideways move following early rally from last Friday’s near 3-week trough at 1.2105 to 1.2201 (Monday), as this move signals correction from May’s 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2266 has possibly ended, a daily close above 1.2201 would encourage for gain towards 1.2266 later this week.
Only a firm break of 1.2145 aborts bullish outlook and may risk re-test of 1.2105.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand manufacturing sales, Australia consumer sentiment, China PPI, CPI, Japan machine tool orders.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada leading index, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2178
Despite yesterday’s resumption of near term upmove from 1.2105 (Friday) to 1.2218 in New York due to falling U.S. yields, intra-day sharp retreat on safe-haven usd’s buying in reaction to weakness in U.S. equities suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with downside bias is seen ahead of key ECB monetary policy announcement and then release of U.S. inflation data.
Above 1.2218 would signal correction from May’s 1.2266 peak has ended and gain towards there would follow whilst a daily close below 1.2145 would shift risk to downside for weakness towards 1.2105.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia consumer inflation expectations, Japan corporate goods price index.
UK RICS housing price balance, France non-farm payrolls, industrial output, Italy industrial output, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Jun 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2177
Despite euro’s intra-day brief fall from 1.2194 to 1.2144 on ECB Lagarde’s dovish comments, subsequent rebound due to usd’s weakness on the back of selloff in U.S. yields suggests pullback from this week’s 1.2218 high has ended, a daily close above there would encourage for further headway towards May’s peak at 1.2266 next week.
On the downside, only below 1.2144 prolongs this week’s daily wild swings and would risk marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2105.
The only EU eco. data due out is German wholesale price index. G7 starts its 3-day meeting in England later today, pay attention to comments by G7 officials. We also have ECB member Fernandez-Bollo speaking at an event at 12:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2118
Although euro’s rebound from 1.2095 (Europe) to 1.2130 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline has made a temporary low at Friday’s 4-week trough at 1.2093, as long as 1.2144 (previous sup, now res) holds, bearishness remains for subsequent weakness, ‘loss of momentum’ should keep price above 1.2052.
Only a daily close above 1.2093 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.2194 before prospect of retreat later this week.
The euro area countries will release a slew of inflation data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details. We also have some ECB members scheduled to speak in European session.
AceTraderFx Jun 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2124
Although euro’s retreat from 1.2148 to 1.2102 yesterday suggests correction from Friday’s near 4-week trough at 1.2093 has possibly ended, subsequent rebound is likely to bring sideways ahead of key FOMC announcement later today.
Below 1.2093 would extend recent decline to next chart objective at 1.2052 whilst a daily close above 1.2148 (Fed’s dovish hold perhaps) shifts risk to upside for stronger retracement towards 1.2194, break, 1.2218.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand current account, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, China industrial output, retail sales.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU labour costs, U.S. MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts, import prices, export prices, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, core CPI, wholesale trade.
AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1998
Euro’s selloff in post-FOMC New York session below previous June’s 1.2093 low on Wednesday to a 5-week trough of 1.1985 today following Fed’s hawkish tilt suggests recent rise from 2021 bottom at 1.1705 has ended at 1.2266 (May) and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, oversold condition may keep euro above 1.1919 (61.8% r of 1.1705-1.2266).
On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2052 dampens bearishness and may risk gain twd 1.2093 before prospect of another fall.
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDP, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP.
Canada ADP employment change, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, leading index change.
AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1908
Yesterday’s follow-through selloff to a 2-month low of 1.1893 following Wed’s surprise hawkish tilt by the Fed suggests recent decline would pressure price towards next chart objective at 1.1868,
oversold condition should prevent further steep decline.
Only a daily close above New York high at 1.1950 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.2000/05 before prospect of another fall next week.
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, Bank of Japan interest rate decision.
Germany producer prices, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index.
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AceTraderFx Jun 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1870
Friday’s resumption of recent decline to a 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1848 (New York) due to active safe-haven usd buying suggests euro would extend further weakness after minor consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum is likely to keep price above above 1.1786 and risk has increased for a correction.
On the upside, only above 1.1925 signals temporary low is made and yields retracement towards 1.1950 before retreat.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries. ECB President Lagarde will appear at the Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament at 14:15 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1907
Although euro’s rebound on Monday after initial re-test of Fri’s 2-1/2 month trough at 1.1848 suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is in store, as long as 1.1950 holds, downside bias remains, however, loss of near term downward momentum would keep price above 1.1800/10.
Only a daily close above 1.1950 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.20006 before prospect of retreat later this week.
On the data front, we have Italy’s industrial sales n then EU’s consumer confidence. We also have ECB’s Lane speaking on “The resilience of the euro” at 14:00GMT n then ECB’s Schnabel speaking at 17:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1933
Euro’s break of 1.1921/25 res to 1.1952 yesterday’s due to broad-based usd’s weakness following Fed J. Powell’s dovish testimony before the Congress confirms recent decline from 1.2266 (May) has made a temporary low earlier at 1.1848 (Friday), near term overbought condition should prevent strong gain and recon res at 1.2006 should cap upside and yield retreat later this week.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1921 would be the first signal recovery is over, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.1882.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, coincident index, leading indicator.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, building permits, current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales and Canada retail sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Jun 2021 03:00GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1930
Despite extending erratic rise from last Friday’s 9-week trough at 1.1848 to 1.1969 in New York morning on continued usd’s weakness after soft U.S. data, intra-day decline following hawkish comments by Fed officials suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with downside bias is in store.
Below 1.1911 signals correction is possibly over and heads back towards 1.1882, then re-test of 1.1848 next week. Only above 1.1969 risks marginal gain but loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 1.2006.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany import prices, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, France business climate, U.K. BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporation bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE vote unchanged, BoE vote cut.
U.S. durable goods, durable ex-transport, durables ex-defence, GDP, PCE prices, trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing and Cana average weekly earnings.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major