AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.67
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from Mon’s 3-month trough of 109.02 to 110.03 in Asian morning today, subsequent fall to 109.55 at European open on renewed U.S.-China trade tension suggests recovery has ended and price would head to 109.15/16 after range trading.
On the upside, only a daily close above 110.05 would risk gain towards 110.28/32, then possibly 110.60/70.
On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please see our EI page for details). Also we have a number of Fed officials speaking in New York session later (see EI page for details).
AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.12
Although dollar has retreated after Monday’s rise to a 1-week high at 110.32 in Asia, as 109.81 (New York) has contained weakness, upside bias is retained for recent upmove from last Monday’s 3-month trough at 109.02 to resume and extend to 110.50/60 before prospect of decline due to loss of momentum, below 109.50 would bring re-test of 109.02.
On the upside, only above 110.70 would risk stronger gain towards 111.05.
Market has shown muted reaction to early comments by Fed’s J. Powell. U.S. will release Redbook sales, existing home sales in New York morning. Also we have Fed’s Evans n Fed’s Rosengren speaking later today.
AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.39
Dollar’s rally from 110.07 in Europe to a 2-week high at 110.67 in New York on broad-based gains in U.S. stocks yesterday suggests recent upmove from last Monday’s 3-month trough of 109.02 has resumed and further gain to 110.85/95 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 111.05 should hold and yield retreat.
Below 110.07 would indicate temporary top made and extend weakness towards 109.81.
Above 110.05 risks gain to 111.35/38.
U.S. calendar is very thin with MBA mortgage applications being the only data due out ahead of release of FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT. We have a number of Fed officials delivering speeches today (see EI page for details).
For Asian traders, pay attention to a club lunch speech titled “The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (voting member) who is speaking at The Foreign Correspondents’ Club in Hong Kong at 05:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 110.25
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from May’s 3-month trough at 109.02 to a 2-week high of 110.67 on Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 110.13 in Asia today suggests temporary top is possibly made n consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.45/50 but 109.15/16 should hold and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 110.67 would risk one more rise towards 111.90/00 before retreat.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with weekly jobless claims, building permits, Markit mfg and services PMIs, new home sales and Kansas City Fed Mfg index. We also have a number of Fed officials speaking during New York session (please refer to EI page for details).
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.56
Although dollar has recovered to 109.75 in Asian morning after yesterday’s selloff, subsequent retreat suggests pullback has ended and recent decline from Tuesday’s 110.67 would resume and bring re-test of May’s 3-month bottom at 109.02, where break would extend fall from April’s 112.39 high to 108.50.
On the upside, only above 110.07 would prolong choppy trading and risk retracement towards 110.32/37.
U.S. will release Apr durable goods order at 12:30GMT and no speech is scheduled by Fed officials. T.G.I.F.
AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.54
Dollar’s selloff from last Tuesday’s near 2-week high at 110.67 to 109.28 Friday suggests early correction from May’s 3-month low at 109.02 has ended, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall and below 109.02 would extend decline April’s 112.39 high to 108.82/87, however, reckon 108.50 sup should hold.
On the upside, only a daily close above 109.75 would indicate temporary bottom made and risk retracement towards 110.07/10.
Data to be released today:
Japan coincident index, leading economic index, Swiss non-farm payrolls, UK market holiday, and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.30
Dollar’s intra-day retreat from 109.63 in Asia suggests recovery from last Friday’s 109.28 low has ended and below said sup would bring re-test of May’s 3-month trough of 109.02, break would extend decline from 2019 peak at 112.39 (April) to 108.82/87, however, reckon 108.50 sup should hold.
On the upside, only above 109.75 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.90/00 before retreat.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Swiss GDP, trade balance, exports, imports, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, import prices, France consumer confidence, Italy trade balance, UK BBA mortgage approvals, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.
AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.72
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from last Tuesday’s 110.67 to a 2-week low at 109.15 in Asia yesterday, subsequent strong rebound due to recovery in U.S. stocks in New York, then intra-day break of 109.75 res to 109.83 in Europe suggests temporary low made and retracement towards 110.26/37 may be seen before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.48 would indicate recovery has ended and yield 109.15 again, break would bring re-test of May’s 3-month bottom of 109.02.
On the data front, pay attention to release of U.S. Qi GDP, core PCE, weekly jobless claims, goods trade balance, whole inventories n pending home sales. Also, we have Fed’s Vice Chairman Clarida speaking at the Economic Club of NY at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.25
Dollar’s selloff on Friday due to safe-haven yen buying after U.S. President Trump threatened to raise Mexico’s tariffs and then break of previous May’s 109.02 low to a fresh 4-1/2 month trough at 108.07 in Asia today suggests medium term decline from April’s 112.39 high would extend to 107.30 after consolidation.
On the upside, only above 109.02 would confirm temporary bottom made and risk retracement towards 109.30/40.
Data to be released today:
Swiss CPI, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, UK manufacturing PMI.
Canada manufacturing PMI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite yesterday’s rally from a near 5-month low at 107.82 to 108.48 in New York on broad-based usd’s strength, subsequent retreat to 108.19 in Australia, then lower to 108.08 in Europe on U.S.-Mexico trade tension suggests recovery has possibly ended and decline from April’s 112.39 high would resume and extend towards 107.60/65 but 107.30 should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 108.72 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.00/10 before retreat.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, EU employment, GDP, ECB interest rate decision.
U.S. trade balance, jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Canada trade balance, exports, imports and Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.58
Although dollar’s rally from last Wed’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 to 108.71 yesterday suggests recent decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low, as long as 108.71/72 res holds, downside bias remains for re-test of 107.82, but break needed to extend decline towards 107.55/65.
On the upside, only above 108.72 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.02, then possibly 109.25.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU Sentix index, and U.S. PPI, redbook.
AceTraderFx Jun 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.34
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from last Wed’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 to a 1-week high at 108.80 yesterday, subsequent retreat and intra-day break of 108.34 sup suggests temporary top made and weakness towards 107.90/00 would be seen after consolidation but below 107.82 needed to extend fall towards 107.77/80.
On the upside, only above 108.80 would risk gain towards 109.02, then 109.25 later.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France non-farm payrolls, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Jun 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.32
Despite dollar’s rebound from yesterday’s 108.22 low to 108.54 in New York, subsequent retreat and then intra-day break of said sup suggests correction from June’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 has possibly ended at 108.80 Tuesday and re-test of 107.82 would be seen after consolidation but 107.30 should hold.
On the upside, only a daily close above 108.80 would risk gain towards 109.02, then possibly 109.20/25.
On the data front, the U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, import and export prices.
Later today, Japan’s EconNib Motegi will meet with USTR Lighhizer for trade talks in Washington.
AceTraderFx Jun 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.21
Dollar’s erratic fall from this week’s high at 108.80 (Tue) to 108.17 yesterday suggests early correction from June’s 5-month bottom at 107.82 has ended and below 108.00/03 would encourage for re-test of 107.82, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above projected sup at 107.30.
Only above 108.53/57 prolongs choppy sideways swings and may risk another rise back towards 108.80 but reckon 109.02 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Friday :
Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI.
U.S. retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.58
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Tue’s 108.80 high to 108.17 on Thur, Fri’s rally to 108.58 in NY after re-testing said sup, then intra-day gain to 108.70 suggests pullback has ended and above 108.80 would extend recent rise from Jun’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 towards 109.02.
On the downside, only below 108.17 would indicate correction has ended instead and yield weakness to 107.82 again.
Eco. calendar in the U.S. is pretty thin with NY Fed mfg index n NAHB Housing Market index being the only dat due out in NY morning.
AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.30
Dollar’s retreat from Monday’s 108.72 high and intra-day fall in Asia due to BoJ Kuroda’s comments suggests further choppy trading below last Tuesday’s 108.80 high would continue and below 108.17 would bring re-test of Jun’s near 5-month bottom of 107.82, but break needed to extend medium term decline from 112.39 (April) towards 107.30 before rebound.
On the upside, only above 108.80 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.02, break, 109.20/25.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions, EU trade balance, HICP, core HICP, ZEW economic sentiment.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook retail sales and Canada manufacturing sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.43
Despite dollar’s intra-day resumption of decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 107.06 in Asia, subsequent rebound on MOF’s comments suggests range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall to 106.90 but 106.75 should hold.
On the upside, only above 107.82 would indicate temporary low is in place and risk retracement towards 108.07, 108.44.
T.G.I.F. after a tumultuous week, U.S. will later release Markit mfg and services PMIs n existing home sales. Cleveland Fed’s Mester and Fed Gov. Brainard will participate at a Fed’s event in Ohio at 16:00GMT n S. Francisco Fed’s Daly will host an event at 19:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.37
Although dollar has staged a strong rebound after falling to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 107.06 on Friday, as 107.73 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains and below said sup would extend medium term decline from April’s 4-month peak at 122.39 to 106.90 but loss of momentum should keep price above 106.75 today.
On the upside, only above 107.82 would risk stronger retracement towards 108.07, break, 108.44.
On the data front, U.S. will later release Chicago National Activity index and Dallas Fed Mfg Business index.
AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.00
Despite Mon’s sideways swings after Fri’s strong rebound from 107.06 to 107.73 (New York), intra-day fall from 107.41 at Asian open and then break of said sup to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 106.79 on active safe-haven yen buying suggests decline from 112.39 (Apr) would pressure price towards 106.24 before prospect of rebound later.
On the upside, only above 107.25 would indicate temporary bottom made and risk stronger retracement towards 107.50/60.
The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with U.S. building permits, Redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
Also we have New York Fed’s Williams speaking at 12:45GMT, then followed by Atlanta Fed’s Bostic at 14:00GMT n last but not least, Fed’s Chairman J. Powell will speak at forum in New York called “A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell,” at 17:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.04
Dollar’s intra-day rise from 107.66 in Asia and then break above Wednesday’s 107.84 high to 108.16 in Europe after media reported U.S.-China trade truce ahead of G20 summit suggests recent upmove from Tuesday’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 would head to 108.70/80 after consolidation before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 107.66 would indicate correction has ended instead and risks weakness to 107.37/41.
Data to be released later:
Italy MFG business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, Canada average weekly earnings.
U.S. GDP, PCE, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.