AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 May 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 109.72
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from last Tuesday’s 110.67 to a 2-week low at 109.15 in Asia yesterday, subsequent strong rebound due to recovery in U.S. stocks in New York, then intra-day break of 109.75 res to 109.83 in Europe suggests temporary low made and retracement towards 110.26/37 may be seen before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 109.48 would indicate recovery has ended and yield 109.15 again, break would bring re-test of May’s 3-month bottom of 109.02.
On the data front, pay attention to release of U.S. Qi GDP, core PCE, weekly jobless claims, goods trade balance, whole inventories n pending home sales. Also, we have Fed’s Vice Chairman Clarida speaking at the Economic Club of NY at 16:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.25
Dollar’s selloff on Friday due to safe-haven yen buying after U.S. President Trump threatened to raise Mexico’s tariffs and then break of previous May’s 109.02 low to a fresh 4-1/2 month trough at 108.07 in Asia today suggests medium term decline from April’s 112.39 high would extend to 107.30 after consolidation.
On the upside, only above 109.02 would confirm temporary bottom made and risk retracement towards 109.30/40.
Data to be released today:
Swiss CPI, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, UK manufacturing PMI.
Canada manufacturing PMI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite yesterday’s rally from a near 5-month low at 107.82 to 108.48 in New York on broad-based usd’s strength, subsequent retreat to 108.19 in Australia, then lower to 108.08 in Europe on U.S.-Mexico trade tension suggests recovery has possibly ended and decline from April’s 112.39 high would resume and extend towards 107.60/65 but 107.30 should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 108.72 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.00/10 before retreat.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, EU employment, GDP, ECB interest rate decision.
U.S. trade balance, jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, Canada trade balance, exports, imports and Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Jun 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.58
Although dollar’s rally from last Wed’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 to 108.71 yesterday suggests recent decline from April’s 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low, as long as 108.71/72 res holds, downside bias remains for re-test of 107.82, but break needed to extend decline towards 107.55/65.
On the upside, only above 108.72 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.02, then possibly 109.25.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU Sentix index, and U.S. PPI, redbook.
AceTraderFx Jun 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.34
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from last Wed’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 to a 1-week high at 108.80 yesterday, subsequent retreat and intra-day break of 108.34 sup suggests temporary top made and weakness towards 107.90/00 would be seen after consolidation but below 107.82 needed to extend fall towards 107.77/80.
On the upside, only above 108.80 would risk gain towards 109.02, then 109.25 later.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France non-farm payrolls, and U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Jun 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.32
Despite dollar’s rebound from yesterday’s 108.22 low to 108.54 in New York, subsequent retreat and then intra-day break of said sup suggests correction from June’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 has possibly ended at 108.80 Tuesday and re-test of 107.82 would be seen after consolidation but 107.30 should hold.
On the upside, only a daily close above 108.80 would risk gain towards 109.02, then possibly 109.20/25.
On the data front, the U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, import and export prices.
Later today, Japan’s EconNib Motegi will meet with USTR Lighhizer for trade talks in Washington.
AceTraderFx Jun 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.21
Dollar’s erratic fall from this week’s high at 108.80 (Tue) to 108.17 yesterday suggests early correction from June’s 5-month bottom at 107.82 has ended and below 108.00/03 would encourage for re-test of 107.82, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above projected sup at 107.30.
Only above 108.53/57 prolongs choppy sideways swings and may risk another rise back towards 108.80 but reckon 109.02 should cap upside.
Data to be released on Friday :
Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI.
U.S. retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Jun 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.58
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Tue’s 108.80 high to 108.17 on Thur, Fri’s rally to 108.58 in NY after re-testing said sup, then intra-day gain to 108.70 suggests pullback has ended and above 108.80 would extend recent rise from Jun’s near 5-month trough at 107.82 towards 109.02.
On the downside, only below 108.17 would indicate correction has ended instead and yield weakness to 107.82 again.
Eco. calendar in the U.S. is pretty thin with NY Fed mfg index n NAHB Housing Market index being the only dat due out in NY morning.
AceTraderFx Jun 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.30
Dollar’s retreat from Monday’s 108.72 high and intra-day fall in Asia due to BoJ Kuroda’s comments suggests further choppy trading below last Tuesday’s 108.80 high would continue and below 108.17 would bring re-test of Jun’s near 5-month bottom of 107.82, but break needed to extend medium term decline from 112.39 (April) towards 107.30 before rebound.
On the upside, only above 108.80 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.02, break, 109.20/25.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions, EU trade balance, HICP, core HICP, ZEW economic sentiment.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook retail sales and Canada manufacturing sales.
AceTraderFx Jun 21: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.43
Despite dollar’s intra-day resumption of decline from Apr’s 4-month peak at 112.39 to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 107.06 in Asia, subsequent rebound on MOF’s comments suggests range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall to 106.90 but 106.75 should hold.
On the upside, only above 107.82 would indicate temporary low is in place and risk retracement towards 108.07, 108.44.
T.G.I.F. after a tumultuous week, U.S. will later release Markit mfg and services PMIs n existing home sales. Cleveland Fed’s Mester and Fed Gov. Brainard will participate at a Fed’s event in Ohio at 16:00GMT n S. Francisco Fed’s Daly will host an event at 19:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.37
Although dollar has staged a strong rebound after falling to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 107.06 on Friday, as 107.73 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains and below said sup would extend medium term decline from April’s 4-month peak at 122.39 to 106.90 but loss of momentum should keep price above 106.75 today.
On the upside, only above 107.82 would risk stronger retracement towards 108.07, break, 108.44.
On the data front, U.S. will later release Chicago National Activity index and Dallas Fed Mfg Business index.
AceTraderFx Jun 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.00
Despite Mon’s sideways swings after Fri’s strong rebound from 107.06 to 107.73 (New York), intra-day fall from 107.41 at Asian open and then break of said sup to a fresh 5-1/2 month low at 106.79 on active safe-haven yen buying suggests decline from 112.39 (Apr) would pressure price towards 106.24 before prospect of rebound later.
On the upside, only above 107.25 would indicate temporary bottom made and risk stronger retracement towards 107.50/60.
The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with U.S. building permits, Redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
Also we have New York Fed’s Williams speaking at 12:45GMT, then followed by Atlanta Fed’s Bostic at 14:00GMT n last but not least, Fed’s Chairman J. Powell will speak at forum in New York called “A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell,” at 17:00 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.04
Dollar’s intra-day rise from 107.66 in Asia and then break above Wednesday’s 107.84 high to 108.16 in Europe after media reported U.S.-China trade truce ahead of G20 summit suggests recent upmove from Tuesday’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 would head to 108.70/80 after consolidation before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 107.66 would indicate correction has ended instead and risks weakness to 107.37/41.
Data to be released later:
Italy MFG business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, Canada average weekly earnings.
U.S. GDP, PCE, pending home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Jul 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.03
Although the greenback has retreated after Monday’s gap-up open on weekend news that U.S. and China will resume their trade talks and gain to 108.53 and minor consolidation would be seen ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report, as said move suggests upmove from last Tuesday’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 has once again resumed, further gain towards 108.80 would be seen, however, over bought condition would keep price below 109.02/10 and yield a correction later this week.
On the downside, only below 107.06 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 107.57/60.
Data to be released on Friday :
Germany industrial orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price, labour productivity.
USA non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Jul 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.85
Dollar’s rally to 108.63 last Friday on robust U.S. NFP data, then to 108.80 yesterday and intra-day break of this resistance suggests upmove from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias is retained and above 108.63 would extend to 109.02/10, then 109.30 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 107.54 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger weakness to 107.25, then 107.06/10.
On the data front, U.S. will later release Redbook sales, JOLTRS jobs openings, however, all eyes are on Wednesday’s 2-day testimony before the Congress by Fed chief J. Powell as well as release of previous FOMC minutes. A number of Fed officials will be speaking in New York session, please refer to our EI section for details.
AceTraderFx Jul 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.95
Dollar’s rally to 108.63 last Friday on robust U.S. NFP data, then to 108.97 yesterday and intra-day break of this resistance suggests upmove from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias is retained and above 108.63 would extend to 109.02/10, then 109.30 before prospect of a correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 107.54 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger weakness to 107.25, then 107.06/10.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance.
U.S. mortgage applications, wholesale inventories and Canada BoC rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jul 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.07
Despite the greenback’s resumption of upmove from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 to a 1-month peak at 108.99 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff in New York session to 107.86 today on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish remarks to Congress suggests a temporary top has been made and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 107.50/54, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 107.21.
On the upside, only above 108.36 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 108.63, then 108.99 early next week.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, Canada new housing price index, U.S. weekly earnings, CPI, core CPI and Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Jul 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.27
Although the greenback has staged a recovery after yesterday’s resumption of Wednesday’s decline to 107.86 on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish remarks to the Congress, as 108.61 has capped upside in Asia today, downside bias is retained and below 107.86 would extend decline from 108.99 (Wednesday) to 107.50/54 before prospect of a correction due to near term loss of momentum.
On the upside, only above 108.61 would revive bullishness for a re-test of 108.99, break would yield stronger retracement of medium-term fall to 109.26/30.
Data to be released later:
Germany wholesale price index, EU industrial output, U.S. PPI, core PPI and export prices.
AceTraderFx Jul 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 107.94
Despite the greenback’s resumption of upmove from June’s 5-1/2 month trough at 106.79 to a 1-month peak at 108.99 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 107.86 Thursday on Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s dovish remarks to Congress, then to 107.81 today suggests a temporary top has been made and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 107.50/54, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 107.21.
On the upside, only above 108.36 would indicate said pullback has ended instead and risk gain to 108.63, then 108.99 early next week.
U.S. economic caldendar is pretty thin today with New York Empire State mfg index for Jul, street forecast is 0.5 bs previous reading at -8.6. We have Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams speaking in NY before the “LIBOR Transition Briefing: The Transition to Alternative Reference Rates” organized by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) at 12:50 GMT.
AceTraderFx Jul 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Jul 2019 09:30 GMT
USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite dollar’s fall from last Wednesday’s 5-week peak at 108.99 to 107.81 on Friday, subsequent rebound and yesterday’s rally to 108.37 (New York) on upbeat U.S. retail sales suggests temporary bottom made, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before price head back towards 108.99 again.
On the downside, only below 108.00 would risk weakness towards 107.81, then 107.71.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts n later Fed’s beige book at 18:00GMT. Kansas City President George will be speaking on economic outlook at a symposium in K.C. at 17:30GMT.