AceTraderFx Feb 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Feb 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.80
Dollar’s decline to 109.58 near New York close yesterday, then intra-day fall below said support on selloff in U.S. stocks and yields suggests medium term upmove from 2019 33-month bottom at 104.46 has made a temporary top at last Thursday’s 9-1/2 month peak of 112.22 and further weakness to 108.32/35 would be seen after consolidation but oversold condition may keep price above 108.00.
On the upside, only above 109.58/68 would indicate temporary low made and risk stronger retracement to 110.00/10.
Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, nationwide house price, Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicator, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, trade balance, wholesale inventories, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GdP, production prices, budget balance.
AceTraderFx Mar 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent decline from Feb’s near 10-month peak at 112.22 to a 4-1/2 month bottom at 107.00 in New Zealand today, subsequent strong rebound in tandem with US yields suggests temporary low is in place, however, reckon 108.80/85 would cap upside and yield retreat later.
On the downside, below 107.76 would extend weakness to 107.52/55 but 107.00 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Monday:
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI
AceTraderFx Mar 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.98
Although dollar’s rally from Monday’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 107.00 suggests recent decline from Feb’s near 10-month peak at 112.22 has made a temporary bottom, subsequent retreat from 108.57 suggests recovery has ended and consolidation would be seen before re-test of 107.00, break, 106.82/85 later.
On the upside, only above 108.53/57 would risk stronger retracement to 109.00/05.
In the absence of major economic data from the U.S. today, investors should pay attention to comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner in London at 19:50GMT.
AceTraderFx Mar 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.35
Yesterday’s break of Monday’s low at 107.00 to 106.94 in New York due to surprise 50 b.p rate cut by the Fed, then to a 4-1/2 month bottom at 106.86 in Australia today confirms recent decline has resumed, subsequent rebound may head back to 108.00/06 before prospect of another fall, however, reckon 106.49 would remain intact.
On the upside, only above 108.06 would risk stronger retracement to 108.53/57.
Pay attention to the release of US ADP employment at 13:15GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 15:00GMT. Street forecasts are 170k n 54.9, down from previous readings of 291k and 55.5 respectively.
AceTraderFx Mar 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.78
Yesterday’s selloff below Wednesday’s low at 106.86 to 105.98 in New York, then to 105.68 today confirms recent decline from February’s 9-1/2 month high at 112.22 has resumed and price would head to 105.00/10 after consolidation before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 106.34 signals temporary bottom is made and risks stronger retracement to 106.51, then 106.86.
Data to be released later:
Germany industrial orders, France current account trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house prices, Italy retail sales.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, average earnings, trade balance, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate, trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Mar 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 102.45
Intra-day selloff below 2019 low at 104.46 (Aug) to a 3-1/2 year trough at 101.57 on plunge in U.S. Treasury yields suggests medium term decline has resumed, and as 103.06 has capped subsequent recovery, downside bias remains, below 101.57 needed to head to 101.15/20.
On the upside, only above 103.06 signals temporary bottom is made and risks stronger retracement to 103.50/55.
Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits on Monday.
AceTraderFx Mar 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.16
Dollar’s rally from a 3-1/2 year trough at 101.19 in New York yesterday suggests recent decline has made a temporary bottom there, subsequent weakness from 105.03 in Asia would bring consolidation before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 105.70/73 should cap upside and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 103.67 would head to 103.06/10, then 102.68.
In the absence of major economic data from U.S. today, investors should continue to keep their attention on the newswires together with keeping an eye on the U.S. Treasury yields and stock markets.
AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 103.72
Despite dollar’s rally from Monday’s near 3-1/2 year bottom at 101.19 to 105.91 on Tuesday, subsequent fall to 103.10 in Asia today suggests 1st leg of correction has ended and intra-day rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall, however, reckon 101.95/00 should remain intact.
On the upside, only a firm break above 104.25/30 would indicate temporary low made and yield gain to 104.75/80.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is for a marginal increase to 218k from previous reading of 216k.
AceTraderFx Mar 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.91
The greenback’s break of Tuesday’s high at 105.91 to 106.08 yesterday suggests upmove from Monday’s near 3-1/2 year low at 101.19 has resumed, as subsequent rebound after retreat to 104.51 in Australia today signals price would bring re-test of 106.08, break would extend to 106.34, however, reckon 106.86 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 105.27 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retreacement to 104.51/55 before correction.
Pay attention to the release of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a drop to 95.0 from previous reading of 101.0.
AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.56
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from last Monday’s near 3-1/2 year bottom at 101.19 to a 9-day high at 108.50 (New York) on Friday, intra-day gap-down open and then selloff to 105.74 in New Zealand on active safe-haven yen buying after Fed’s surprise rate cut suggests temporary top is made.
As price has retreated after rebounding to 107.57 (Asia), downside bias is retained, below 105.74 would head to 104.90/00 while above 107.57 would yield 107.95/00.
AceTraderFx Mar 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.75
Despite dollar’s fall from Friday’s 9-day high at 108.50 to 105.15 in New York, subsequent strong rebound to 117.18 in Asia today suggests 1st leg of correction has ended and as price has recovered after retreating to 106.18, upside bias is retained for gain to 107.90/00 after consolidation.
On the downside, only below 105.59/60 would risk weakness to 105.15/20.
There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today and one should pay attention to industrial production and manufacturing output at 13:15GMT. Street forecasts are 0.4% and 0.3% vs previous readings of -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.
AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.02
Yesterday’s rise above last Friday’s high at 108.50 to 108.65, then to a 2-week top at 109.55 in Asia today suggests recent upmove from March’s near 3-1/2 year trough at 101.19 has resumed and gain towards 109.90 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 110.70 may hold and yield correction.
On the downside, only below 108.46 signals temporary peak made and risks weakness to 107.75, then 107.09.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is for a slight increase to 220k from previous reading of 213k.
AceTraderFx Mar 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.60
Despite dollar’s resumption of recent upmove from March’s 39-month bottom at 101.19 to a 3-week high at 111.36 in Australia today, subsequent fall suggests temporary top is made and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen, however, reckon 108.80/90 should hold, yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 110.05/10 would bring retracement to 110.50/60 before prospect of retreat.
In the absence of major U.S. economic data today, market focus will remain on the ongoing coronavirus pandemic related headlines and how global stocks react to the measures taken by several central banks to tackle the slowing global growth.
AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 110.32
Despite the greenback’s rise to a 3-week peak at 111.71 Tuesday, subsequent sharp retreat to 110.76 and intra-day fall below this level suggests upmove from March’s 3-1/2 year trough at 101.19 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.09, then 109.67, however, over sold condition would keep price above 109.32 and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 111.07 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended and risk re-test of 111.71 early next week, break, 112.22.
Data to be released on Thursday :
German GfK consumer sentiment, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, France business climate, Italy trade balance.
U.S. GDP, core PCE prices, PCE prices, trade balance, whoesales inventories, wholesale sales, initial jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.94
Despite dollar’s selloff below yesterday’s 109.22 low to a 1-week 108.25 bottom in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests decline from Tuesday’s 1-month 111.71 peak has made a temporary trough there and minor consolidation would be seen before prospect of another fall to 107.67/75 but 107.26 should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 109.22 would risk stronger retreacement to 109.71, then 110.16.
Data to be released later:
UK nationwide house price index, France consumer confidence, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada average weekly earnings, budget balance.
AceTraderFx Mar 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Mar 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.03
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Tuesday’s 1-month high at 111.71 to 107.13 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is made and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 108.25, where break would extend to 109.06, then 109.71.
On the downside, only below 107.13 would revive bearishness for weakness to 106.86, then 106.45.
Data to be released later:
UK nationwide house price, Swiss KOF indicator, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
pending home index, pending sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday
AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.62
Despite dollar’s strong bounce from Monday’s 11-day low of 107.13 to 108.72 at Asian open yesterday, subsequent retreat to 107.26 today, then recovery to 107.94 would bring choppy sideways swings before decline from last Tuesday’s 1-month peak at 111.71 resumes and extends to 106.76/80 before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 107.94 would risk stronger retracement to 108.10, then possibly 108.60/70.
On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, Markit mfg n services PMIs n construction spending.
AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.37
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from last Tuesday’s 1-month peak at 111.71 to a near 2-week bottom at 106.93 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound to 107.56 in Asia today suggests temporary low is made and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for stronger retracement to 107.90/00 before prospect of another fall.
On the downside, below 106.93 would yield marginal decline to 106.65/70 but 106.45 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK nationwide house price, Swiss CPI, EU producer prices.
U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, ISM New York index, durables ex-defence, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.17
Despite dollar’s decline from last Tuesday’s 1-month peak at 111.71 to retrace upmove from March’s near 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 to 106.93 on Wednesday, subsequent erratic rise to 108.29 today suggests temporary low made and marginal gain to 108.67/72 is likely before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, below 107.56 needed to head to 106.93/03, where break would extend weakness to 106.76 but 106.45 should remain intact.
Data to be released later :
France budget balance, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Apr 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.88
Although dollar’s strong rebound from last Wednedsday’s 106.93 low to 109.37 on Monday suggests recent decline from March’s 1-month 111.71 peak has made a temporary bottom, intra-day retreat to 108.68 in Asia on usd’s broad-based weakness would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 109.67/70 should hold.
On the downside, only below 108.18/20 would risk stronger retracement towards 107.56.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major