AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.92
Although dollar’s retreat from this week’s high at 109.37 (Monday) to 108.51 yesterday suggests near term upmove from April’s 106.93 low has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound to 109.09 on Wednesday would bring choppy sideways swings before extending gain to 109.67/71, reckon 110.09 should hold.
On the downside, only below 108.51 would risk stronger retracement to 108.18/20.
Thank God its Thursday as tomorrow is Easter Friday and then Easter Monday, a long holiday weekend for many centres. However, European n North American traders will await release of U.S. weekly jobless claims following last week’s blowout reading of 6.648 million of first time unemployment claims, street forecast ranges from 2.5-7.5 million, a reading closer to the upper range may lead to safe-haven usd buying.
AceTraderFx Apr 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from April’s 106.93 low to 109.37 last Monday, subsequent retreat to 108.22 Thursday, then yesterday’s selloff to 107.51 suggests correction has ended and re-test of 106.93 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from March’s 111.71 peak towards 106.76 before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 108.22 would prolong choppy trading and risks retracement to 108.51/52.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries. We have ECB President Lagarde n ECB’s Panetta participating G& FinMin and cenbank governors meeting in Germany via video conference later in the day.
AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.37
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from last Monday’s 109.37 to 106.94 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in Europe on renewed usd’s strength suggests choppy trading above April’s 106.93 bottom would continue and stronger retracement to 107.70/75 is likely before prospect of another fall, below 106.93 needed to extend downtrend from March’s 111.71 peak to 106.45/50, which should hold on 1st testing.
On the upside, only above 108.00/10 would risk gain to 108.51/52.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI section for details. Also, Atlanta Fed President Bostic is scheduled to speak at 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.76
Despite yesterday’s brief drop to 106.94 in Asia, subsequent rally to 107.86 in New York on usd’s strength, then 108.08 today suggests further choppy trading above April’s near 2-week bottom at 106.93 would continue and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 108.55/61, however, reckon 108.75/80 should cap upside.
On the downside, only below 107.26/36 would indicate recovery has ended, risks 106.94.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today but market’s main focus is weekly jobless claims which may show another blow out number after last week’s increase of 6.606 million people filed for jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.87
Despite dollar’s rebound from yesterday’s 107.17 (New York) low and then re-test of Thursaday’s 108.08 high, intra-day retreat on falling U.S. Treasury yields suggests choppy sideways swings would be seen, however, reckon said sup would remain intact and yield another rise, above 108.08 would head to 108.22 but 108.59/61 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 107.17 would risk weakness to 106.94 (Wednesday’s bottom).
Data to be released later:
Italy trade balance, global trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP.
U.S. leading index change.
AceTraderFx Apr 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.40
Despite dollar’s rebound to 107.94 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests recovery from last Wednesday’s low at 106.94 has ended at 108.08 last Thursday and consolidation with downside bias would be seen, below 107.17 would confirm this view and bring re-test April’s trough at 106.93, break would extend downtrend from March’s peak 111.67 towards 106.40/50 before prospect of correction.
On the upside, only above 108.08 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.50/60.
On the data front, U.S. will later release Redbook sales n then existing home sales.
However, market’s focus is performance of the Dow and S&P 500.
AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.65
Although dollar’s rebound from 107.29 to 107.89 in New York yesterday suggests choppy trading above April’s trough of 106.93 would continue and marginal gain is likely to be seen, reckon resistance at 108.08 would limit upside and yield another fall, below 107.17 would bring re-test of 106.93 later this week.
On the upside, only above 108.08 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 108.52, however resistance at 108.72 should remain intact and yield retreat.
U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with MBA mortgage applications (hardly worth mentioning these days), then monthly home price being the data due out later. Market will pay attention to performance in U.S. stocks after the Dow hit a 1-month high last Friday and has since fallen in last 2 consecutive sessions.
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.60
Dollar’s daily sideways swings following rebound from last Wednesday’s 106.94 low to 108.08 last Thursday suggests further gyration inside said broad range would continue, however, reckon said resistance would remain intact and yield retreat but 107.17 should hold on first testing.
Only above 108.08 would risk stronger retrace of decline from April’s 109.37 peak towards 108.22, break, 108.59/91 before down.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today but once again, traders will focus on release of initial weekly jobless claims, street forecast is for a reading of 4.15 million vs prev. number of 5.245 million, a higher number will lead to weakness in U.S. stocks and this will, in turn, trigger safe-haven usd buying esp. vs other G7 currencies.
AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar’s brief jump from 107.35 to 108.03 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests further choppy trading inside recent 106.94-108.08 broad range would be seen and below 107.29 would head towards 107.17, however, reckon 106.94 should hold on first testing.
On the upside, only above 108.08 would risk stronger retracement to 108.22 but 105.59/61 should remain intact.
Data to be released later:
UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, J Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. drable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada budget balance.
AceTraderFx Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.23
Intra-day selloff below last Fri’s low at 107.38 in post-BoJ suggests consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of April’s trough at 106.93, where break would extend recent decline from March’s 1-month peak of 111.71 to 106.76, then possibly 106.45/50 before prospect of correction.
On then upside, only above 107.35/35 would risk stronger retracement to 107.75, then 108.08.
No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, so order flows will have impact on intra-day price swings.
AceTraderFx Apr 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Apr 2020 03:30GMT
EUR/USD - 1.0835
Although euro’s strong rebound from last Friday’s 1-month bottom at 1.0728 to as high as 1.0861 yesterday (Europe) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is seen, loss of near term upward momentum should cap price at 1.0885/95 and yield decline.
A daily close below 1.0800 signals correction is over and yield weakness to 1.0757/62, then later re-test of 1.0728.
Economic calendar in the euro area countries is very thin with France’s March consumer confidence being the only data due out at 06:45GMT.
AceTraderFx Apr 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.04
Although dollar has rebounded after yesterday’s fall from 107.63 to 107.00 (New York), subsequent retreat from 107.34 and intra-day weakness suggests recovery has ended and re-test of April’s 106.93 low would be seen after consolidation, where break would extend decline from March’s 111.71 peak towards 106.45 before prospect of correction
On the upside, only above 107.34/38 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk 107.70/75, then possibly 108.03/08.
Data to be released later:
UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, redbook, CS home price index, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.42
Intra-day break below yesterday’s 5-week low at 105.56 confirms decline from March’s 1-month peak at 111.71 has resumed and further weakness to 106.00/10 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition should keep price above 105.40/50 and yield correction.
On the upside, only above 106.96/00 would indicate temporary bottom is made and risks gain to 107.34/38.
Data to be released later:
UK BRC shop price index, Australia CPI, Germany import prices, CPI, HICP, Italy production prices, Swiss investor sentiment, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE prices, PCE prices pending home sales, Fed interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.73
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from last Wednesday’s 6-week low at 106.37 to 107.49 last Thursday, subsequent retreat to 106.61 on Friday due partly to renewed U.S.-China trade tension suggests recovery has ended and intra-day sideways swings would bring range trading before prospect of another fall, however, oversold condition should keep price above 105.90/00 and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above Friday’s New York high at 107.07 would risk marginal gain but 107.49 should remain intact.
U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with ISM-NY bus. conditions, durable goods n factory orders.\
AceTraderFx May 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.69
Despite dollar’s rise from last Wednesday’s 6-week low at 106.37 to 107.49 on Thursday, subsequent fall to 106.61 on Friday, then 106.52 today suggests recovery has ended and intra-day bounce would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another decline, however, reckon 105.95/00 should hold and yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 107.49 would risk stronger retracement to 107.70/75 but 108.03/08 would remain intact.
Data to be released later today:
Swiss consumer confidence, CPI, France budget balance, UK Markit services PMI, EU producer prices.
U.S. trade balance, redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.
AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.28
Although dollar’s intra-day firm break of last Wednesday’s low at 106.37 to a 7-week trough at 106.22 (Asia) confirms decline from March’s 111.71 peak has once again resumed and further weakness to 105.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 105.64/69 and yield correction later.
On the upside, only a daily close above 106.62 would indicate temporary bottom is made and yield retracement to 107.00/07.
Data to be released later:
Germany industrial orders, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit construction PMI
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change.
AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.34
Yesterday’s break of Tuesday’s low at 106.43 to a 7-week trough of 105.99 confirms decline from March’s 111.71 peak has once again resumed and intra-day rebound would bring consolidation before prospect of another fall, below 105.99 would extend to 105.64/69 but 105.15/20 should remain intact due to loss of momentum.
On the upside, only above 106.62 would risk stronger retracement to 107.06/07.
Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, UK BOE interest rate decision, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchases, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vot unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut, Halifax house prices, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, labour costs, productivity, and Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.32
Despite dollar’s fall to a 7-week trough of 105.99 on Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 106.65 in New York yesterday signals decline from March’s 111.71 peak has made a temporary low there and as price has bounced from 106.23 to 106.45 in Asia today, consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway to 107.06/07 but 107.49 should remain intact.
On the downside, only below 106.20 may risk weakness to 105.99, break, 105.64/69.
T.G.I.F. but U.S. will release key jobs report and market focus is on unemployment rate in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic which has hit American economy the hardest. Street forecast is looking for U.S. unemployment to be between 16%-19% vs prev. month’s reading of 4%, if it’s higher, then we may see safe-haven usd and yen buying.
AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.21
Intra-day rise above last Friday’s high at 106.74 (now sup) confirms near term upmove from last Wednesday’s 7-week trough of 105.99 has resumed and further gain to 107.44/49 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 107.75/80 should hold and yield retreat due to due to overbought condition.
On the downside, only below 106.74 would risk stronger retracement to 106.37/40, then 106.23, break, 105.99.
The BOJ expanded stimulus on April 27 and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to keep borrowing costs low, as the government tries to spend its way out of the growing economic pain from the coronavirus pandemic.
AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.56
Although dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s 2-week high at 107.76 suggests near-term upmove from last Wednesday’s 7-week low at 105.99 has made a temporary top there, intra-day rebound from 107.36 (Asia) has retained bullishness and above 107.76 would extend aforesaid rise to 108.03/08, then 108.22 but 108.50/55 should remain intact today.
On the downside, only below 107.36 would risk weakness to 107.00/05, then 106.65/70 before rebound.
On the data front, U.S. will release core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings n Redbook sales. Normally, these inflation data are usually important, however, market’s focus has now shifted to weekly jobs claims n unemployment rate due to recent unprecedented economic downturn in the wake of coronavirus pandemic.
We also have a large number of Fed officials scheduled to speak later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major