AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.86
Dollar’s fall from Monday’s 107.76 high to 106.75 in New York yesterday suggests 1st leg of correction from May’s 105.99 bottom has ended and as price has fallen after recovering to 107.14, stronger retracement to 106.55/60 cannot be ruled out before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, above 107.35/36 would indicate pullback has ended and head to 107.63, then 107.76.
Although J. Powell’s scheduled speech Wed was market’s main focus this week, traders are eagerly awaiting release of weekly U.S. jobless claims n also continuing claims to gauge the latest damage done to U.S. jobs market due to coronovirus outbreak which is expected to add another 2.5 Americans out of jobs, making a y-t-d market forecast of around 25 million people filing for unemployment benefits.
AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.06
Although dollar’s rebound from Wednesday’s 106.75 low to 107.43 in Asia today suggests decline from this week’s high at 107.76 (Monday) has made a temporary bottom, intra-day retreat on renewed usd’s weakness signals recovery has possibly ended, below 106.87 would confirm and head to 106.75, break, 10.640/45, however, reckon 106.20/23 would remain intact.
On the upside, only above 107.43 would revive bullishness for gain to 107.63, then 107.76 but 108.03/08 may hold.
Data to be released on Friday:
Germany GDP, producer prices, PPI, France CPI, CPI (EU-norm), Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU-norm), EU employment change, GDP, trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, industrial production, capacity utilization, business inventories JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.
AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.16
Although dollar’s retreat from last Monday’s 2-week high at 107.76 to 106.75 Wednesday suggests first leg of correction from May’s 7-week bottom at 105.99 has ended, subsequent rebound to 107.43 on Friday, then retreat to 106.86 would bring further choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise, above 107.76 would head to 108.03/08.
On the downside, only below 106.75 would risk weakness to 106.51 but 106.20/23 should remain intact.
Data to be released later :
UK Righmove house price, Japan GDP, tertiary industry activity, Canada market .
U.S. NAHB housing on Monday.
AceTraderFx May 19: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.49
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Monday’s 107.76 to 106.75 Wednesday, subsequent erratic rise to 107.59 today suggests pullback has possibly ended, above 107.63 would add credence to this view and yield re-test of 107.76, where break would extend upmove from May’s 7-week bottom at 105.99 to 108.22/27, however, reckon 108.52/59 would hold today.
On the downside, only below 107.04 would prolong choppy trading and risk weakness to 106.75/78 before prospect of rebound.
Data to be released later:
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU construction output, ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook and Canada new housing price index.
AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.81
Despite dollar’s retreat from Tuesday’s 1-month high at 108.08 to 107.34 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound and intra-day firmness after US Trump’s China-bashing tweets suggests pullback has ended and upmove from May’s 7-week bottom at 105.99 would resume and head to 108.47/52, however, overbought condition should cap price below 108.85 today.
On the downside, only below 107.45/50 would risk retracement to 107.34 but 107.04 should remain intact.
U.S. will release a slew of economic data later today (please refer to our EI page for details), however, market focus is on U.S. weekly claims n continuing claims as the latest gauge on U.S. economy in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic. Also, we have Fed chief J. Powell and other Fed presidents scheduled to speak in New York session.
AceTraderFx May 25: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.73
Dollar’s rebound from last Friday’s low at 107.33 to 107.78 in New Zealand today signals pullback from Tuesday’s 1-month high at 108.08 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above said resistant would extend upmove from May’s 7-week trough at 105.99 to 108.52/59.
On the downside, only below 107.33 would risk stronger retracement to 107.04.
As U.S. markets are closed today for Memorial Day holiday, no economic data is due out and as London is also closed for Spring Bank holiday, trading will be quiet in N. American session.
AceTraderFx May 26: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.83
Dollar’s bounce from last Friday’s low at 107.33 to 107.92 in Asia today suggests correction from last Tuesday’s 108.08 high has ended and consolidation with upside bias remains, above said resistance would extend recent upmove from May’s 7-week trough at 105.99 to 108.52/59.
On the downside, below 107.63 would risk stronger retracement to 107.33/35 before rebound.
U.S. markets will re-open after Mon’s Memorial Day holiday n the U.S. will release a slew economic data (see our EI page for details). We also have Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaking later today at 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx May 29: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 May 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.18
Intra-day selloff on safe-haven yen buying due to renewed US-China tensions and break of 107.33 to 107.09 in Asia signals recent upmove from May’s 105.99 low has made a temporary top at 108.08 last Tuesday and mild downside bias would be seen, however, reckon 106.51 would remain intact, yield rebound.
On the upside, above 107.71 would risk gain to 107.94, break would bring re-test of 108.08.
T.G.I.F., however, on top of Trump’s press conference (no time is announced yet) , U.S. will release a slew of important data (please refer to our EI page for details). Last but not the least, Fed chief J. Powell will take part in a moderated virtual discussion at an institute at 15:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Jun 2020 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.56
Despite Friday’s selloff to 107.09 in Asia, subsequent strong rebound to 107.89 (New York) suggests correction from May’s 108.08 peak has ended and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise to 108.35, but 108.85 should remain intact.
Only below 107.33 signals recovery is over and risks stronger retracement to 107.09 but 106.86 would hold.
Data to be released today :
Germany market holiday, Germany market holiday, Markit manufacturing PMI, France market holiday, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss market holiday, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Jun 2020 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 108.74
Despite dollar’s intra-day retreat from a fresh near 2-month high at 108.84 in Asia to 108.43, subsequent rebound suggests correction has possibly ended and above said resistance would extend upmove from May’s 7-week trough of 105.99 to 109.06/09, however, reckon 109.37 (April’s top) should hold.
On the downside, only below 108.43 signals temporary top has been made and risks stronger retracement to 108.29 but 108.08 would remain intact.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK BRC shop price index, Markit services PMI, Swiss GDP, Italy Markit services PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU Markit services PMI, producer prices, unemployment rate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP national employment, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada labour productivity rate, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jun 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 109.06
Intra-day break above yesterday’s high at 108.98 confirms recent upmove from May’s bottom at 105.99 remains in progress and further headway to 108.37 (April’s peak) would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum may cap price below 108.52.
On the downside, only below 108.43 signals temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08 before rebound.
Ahead of Friday’s U.S. key jobs report, market waits release of weekly jobless claims as well as continued jobless claims to get the latest pule of the employment situation. Street forecast is look for 1.8 million filing for unemployment vs previous week’s reading of 2.12 million.
AceTraderFx Jun 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.97
Although dollar’s selloff on Monday from 109.69 in New Zealand to 108.24 (New York), then lower today confirms recent upmove from May’s trough at 105.99 has made a temporary top at Friday’s 2-month peak of 109.84 and mild downside bias would be seen, however, oversold condition should keep price above 107.39 and yield rebound.
On the upside, above 108.24 would head to 108.55/60 before prospect of retreat.
On the U.S. economic calendar, we have 2nd-tier data due out later today starting with Redbook sales, JOLTS jobs opening n wholesale inventtories n sales. The 2-day FOMC meeting starts today
AceTraderFx Jun 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.36
Although dollar’s selloff this week from Monday’s 109.69 high to 107.63 yesterday, then lower today suggests decline from last Friday’s 109.84 peak to retrace upmove from May’s 105.99 bottom has resumed, loss of momentum should prevent steep fall below 107.04/09 and yield rebound later.
Above 107.87 (Asia) would indicate temporary low is made and yield gain to 108.24, then 108.54.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Canada leading index, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, core CPI, CPI real weekly earnings, Fed interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Jun 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.87
Dollar’s selloff from Monday’s 109.69 high to 106.80 in Europe today on usd’s weakness confirms upmove from May’s 105.99 bottom has made a temporary top at last Fri’s 2-month peak at 109.84 and below 106.75 would head to 106.23, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 105.99 today.
On the upside, only above 107.46 would indicate trough made and risk stronger retracement to 107.82/87 but 108.24 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Thursday :
RICS housing price balance, France non-farm payrolls, Italy industrial output, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, PPI, core PPI.
AceTraderFx Jun 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.19
Dollar’s intra-day rebound from 106.59 in Asia after failure to penetrate yesterday’s low at 106.58 to as high as 107.32 suggests decline from June’s 2-month peak at 109.84 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 107.46 but 107.60/63 remain intact and yield retreat.
Only the downside, only below 106.58 would revive bearishness for further weakness to 106.46, then 106.00/10 before prospect of correction.
T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a slew of economic data, please refer to our EI page for details, however, traders are expected to take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. stock futures in Asian Europe, then performance of the Dow n S&P 500 in NY session. We have Richard Fed’s Barkin speaking at 14:00GMT n then 17:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.34
Despite dollar’s bounce from last Thursday’s 1-month low at 106.58 to 107.55 Friday in New York, then to 107.57 in Asia today, subsequent retreat to 107.01 suggests recovery has possibly ended and choppy sideways swings would be seen before prospect of another fall but 105.99 (May low) should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 107.57 signals temporary bottom has been made and risks retracement to 107.87, then 108.24.
Data to be released later :
UK house price Rightmove, China industrial output, house price, retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activity, Swiss import price, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm), EU trade balance.
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing and Canada manufacturing sales on Monday.
AceTraderFx Jun 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.32
Despite dollar’s bounce from last Thursday’s 4-week low at 106.58 to 107.63 in Asia today, subsequent retreat suggests correction has possibly ended and downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 107.01 after consolidation but below 106.58 needed to head to 106.20/25, however, reckon 105.99 should remain intact.
On the upside, above 107.63 would risk gain to 107.87, then 108.24.
Data to be released later :
Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU labour costs, ZEW survey expectations.
U.S. retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, redbook, industrial production, capital utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing index.
AceTraderFx Jun 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.34
Dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s high at 107.63 to 107.22 in New York, then 107.18 Asia today suggests recovery from last Thursday’s 4-week low at 106.58 has ended and subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another fall to 107.01, then 106.80 but 106.58 may hold.
On the upside, only above 107.63 would risk stronger retracement to 107.87, then possibly 108.24.
U.S. will release a slew of second-tier economic data (see EI page for details). Fed’s J. Powell will give his second testimony before the House Financial Committe on Capital Hill at 16:00GMT. We also have Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at the same time n then Cleveland Fed Present Mester will speak at 20:00GMT.
AceTraderFx Jun 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.96
Despite dollar’s rebound from last Thursday’s 4-week low at 106.58 to 107.63 Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 106.71 in Asia today suggests recovery has ended and recent decline from June’s 2-month peak at 109.84 would resume after consolidation and head to 106.20/25 but 105.99 (May bottom) should hold on first testing.
On the upside, only above 107.18 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risks 107.40/50.
Data to be released on Thursday :
trade balance, exports, imports, SNB interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, UK BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchases, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, leading index change, and Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index, wholesale trade.
THX for sharing this info
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major