AceTraderFx Jun 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.97
Dollar’s retreat from Tuesday’s high at 107.63 to 106.68 in New York yesterday suggests recovery from last Thursday’s 106.58 4-week low has ended and subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings before recent decline from June’s 109.84 top resumes and head towards 105.99.
On the upside, above 107.18/22 would risk stronger retracement to 107.63 but 107.87 should remain intact.
Data release on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, Japan nationwide CPI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Germany producer prices, EU current account. U.S. current account, and Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.
AceTraderFx Jun 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.92
Dollar’s retreat from last Tuesday’s high at 107.63 to 106.68 on Thursday suggests recovery from June’s 4-week low at 106.58 has ended and subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings before recent decline from June’s 2-month peak at 109.84 resumes and heads to 105.99.
On the upside, above 107.12/18 would risks stronger retracement to 107.63 but 107.87 should hold.
U.S. will release May national activity index and May existing home sales later today.
AceTraderFx Jun 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.60
Yesterday’s selloff after initial rise from 106.75 to 107.21 and then break of 106.58 to a 6-week bottom at 106.08 in New York on usd’s broad-based weakness suggests re-test of May’s 105.99 trough would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from March’s 111.71 peak to 105.50/60 but 105.15 should hold.
On the upside, only a daily close above 106.75 would indicate temporary low made and risks 107.21, then possibly 107.57/63.
Data to be released later :
France business climate, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price.
AceTraderFx Jun 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.18
Dollar’s bounce from Friday’s low at 106.81 to 107.35 in New York, then to 107.37 in Asia today suggests pullback from Thursday’s 107.45 top has ended and subsequent retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before upmove from last Tuesday’s 6-week trough at 106.08 resumes and heads to 107.63 but 107.96 should hold today.
On the downside, below 106.81 would risk marginal weakness but 106.60/63 would remain intact…
AceTraderFx Jun 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Jun 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.73
Although dollar’s weakness after resumption of upmove from last Tuesday’s 6-week bottom at 106.08 to a near 3-week high at 107.88 in New York yesterday suggests minor top is made, intra-day rebound from 107.54 (Australia) has retained bullishness for gain to 108.54 before prospect of retreat due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only below 107.37 would risk stronger retracement to 107.05/10 but 106.81 should hold.
Athough there is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today, market focus is on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 16:30GMT.
AceTraderFx July 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.47
Yesterday’s selloff from 108.16 in Asia to 107.37 (New York), then 107.34 today suggests upmove from last Tuesday’s 106.08 low has made a temporary top there and subsequent rebound would bring consolidation before heading to 107.05/10 but 106.81 should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 107.88 would risk re-test of 108.16, break, 108.54.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss CPI, Italy unemployment rate, EU producer prices, unemployment rate.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, trade balance, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, Markit manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx July 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.49
Dollar’s selloff from Wednesday’s 108.16 high to 107.34 yesterday suggests recovery from last Tuesday’s 6-week low at 106.08 has made a temporary top there and subsequent rebound to 107.72 in post-NFP trading would bring choppy sideways swings before down, below 107.34 would yield stronger retracement to 107.05 but 106.81 should remain intact.
On the upside, above 107.88 would re-test of 108.16, break is needed for 108.40.
Data to be released on Friday :
UK GfK consumer confidence, Markit services PMI, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, France budget balance, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI.
U.S. market holiday.
AceTraderFx July 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.60
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Wednesday’s 108.16 high to 107.25 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests correction has possibly ended and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 107.88 would add credence to this view and bring re-test of 108.16, break would extend upmove from Jun’s 6-week 106.08 bottom to 108.40/50.
On the downside, below 107.25 would risk stronger retracement to 107.05, then 106.81 before recovery occurs.
In the absence of major economic data from U.S. today, investors should pay attention to comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Richmond Fed President Barkin at 18:00GMT, where both will participate in a webinar panel on “Perspectives on the Pandemic”.
AceTraderFx July 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.47
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Wednesday’s peak at 108.16 to 107.25 yesterday, subsequent rebound to 107.78 suggests pullback has possibly ended and intra-day retreat from 107.70 would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise, above 107.88 would bring re-test of 108.16 but break needed to head to 108.40.
On the downside, below 107.25 would risk stronger retracement to 107.05, then 106.81.
As there is no major economic data due from U.S. today, pay attention to comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments at 16:15GMT.
AceTraderFx July 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.82
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from June’s 6-week low at 106.08 to last Wednesday’s 3-week high of 108.16, subsequent selloff to 107.11 in New York yesterday, then intra-day break of this level suggests temporary top has been made and further weakness to 106.39 would be seen, however, reckon 106.08 would hold on first testing.
On the upside, above 107.39/43 would indicate low is made and risk stronger retracement to 107.70/78.
T.G.I.F., apart U.S. eco. data due out later today (see EI page for details), traders will also take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. stocks, further weakness mat pressure price lower whilst intra-day rebound would lift the pair higher.
AceTraderFx July 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.03
Intra-day bounce from 106.79 in Asia suggests choppy trading above last Friday’s 106.65 low would continue with mild upside bias, however, reckon 107.11/16 should hold and yield another fall, below 106.65 would extend decline from July’s 3-week peak at 108.16 to 106.39, break, 106.08.
On the upside, above 107.39/44 signals temporary bottom has been made and risk gain to 107.70/78.
Data released today :
New Zealand food price index, UK Rightmove house price, Japan tertiary industry .
U.S. Federal budget on Monday.
AceTraderFx July 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.27
Dollar’s rally from last Friday’s low at 106.65 to 107.31 in New York yesterday, then 107.36 in Asia today suggests decline from July’s 3-week peak at 108.16 has made a temporary bottom and further gain to 107.78 would be seen after consolidation, break would head to 107.90/00 but 108.16 should hold.
On the downside, only below 106.96 would indicate recovery over instead, risks 106.65/70.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, Germany CPI, HICP, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW economic conditions, Swiss producer/import price index, EU industrial production, ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. core CPI, CPI real weekly earnings, redbook.
AceTraderFx July 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.95
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from last Friday’s 2-week low at 106.65 to as high as 107.43 yesterday, intra-day selloff in Europe on renewed usd’s weakness suggests recovery has possibly ended, below 106.79 would add credence to this view and bring re-test of 106.65, break would extend decline from July’s 108.16 peak to 106.39/44.
On the upside, only above 107.43 would prolong choppy trading and risk gain to 107.70/78, then 108.16.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output, DCLG house price index, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, NY Fed manufacturing index, import prices, export prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, and Canada manufacturing sales, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx July 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.96
Although dollar’s strong rebound after yesterday’s selloff from 107.30 (Asia) to 106.67 in New York suggests choppy trading above last Friday’s 2-week low at 106.65 would continue, however, reckon 107.13/16 resistant would hold and yield another fall, below 106.65 would extend decline from July’s 108.16 peak to 106.20/30 but June’s 106.08 bottom should hold on first testing.
Only above 107.13/16 would risk stronger retracement to 107.30, then 107.43 but 107.70/78 would remain intact.
Data to be released on Thursday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy trade balance, EU trade balance, ECB refinancing rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
Canada ADP employment change, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing index.
AceTraderFx July 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.11
Although dollar’s rebound from 106.67 on Wednesday suggests choppy trading above last Friday’s 106.65 bottom would continue and intra-day retreat from 107.39 would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 107.78 should cap upside and yield another fall to 106.84, then 106.65/67 again.
On the upside, above 107.78 would risk marginal gain and July’s 108.16 peak should remain intact.
Pay attention to the release of University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a slight uptick to 79.0 from previous reading of 78.1.
AceTraderFx July 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.19
Despite dollar’s fall from July’s 3-week peak at 108.16 to 106.65, subsequent erratic rise to 107.53 in Asia today suggests temporary bottom is made and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another upmove, however, reckon 108.16 would remain intact and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 106.94 (Friday’s low) would yield marginal weakness but 106.79/84 should hold.
Data to be released later today :
UK Rightmove house price, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Germany producer prices and EU current account on Monday.
AceTraderFx July 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.34
Despite dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s Asian high at 107.53 to as low as 107.04 (New York), subsequent rebound suggests choppy trading above July’s 106.65 bottom would continue and above 107.53 would head to 107.78 but 108.16 should remain intact.
On the downside, below 106.94 would yield re-test of 106.65, break would extend decline from Jul’s 108.16 peak to 106.39/44.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK PSNB, PSNCR, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports.
U.S. national activity index, redbook, Canad new housing price index, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.
AceTraderFx July 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.05
Despite yesterday’s fall from 107.36 in Europe to 106.69 (New York) on usd’s broad-based weakness, intra-day strong rebound suggests choppy trading above July’s bottom at 106.65 would continue and above 107.36/39 would head to 107.53, break, 107.73/78 later.
On the downside, only below 106.65 would extend decline from July’s 3-week peak at 108.16 to 106.39/44.
Data out on Wednesday :
Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, Australia Westpac leading index, retail sales.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price index, existing home sales, and Canada CPI, core CPI.
AceTraderFx July 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 107.16
Although dollar’s bounce from yesterday’s low at 106.72 in Asia to 107.28 (New York) suggests choppy trading above July’s 106.65 bottom would continue and stronger retracement to 107.36/40 can’t be ruled out, however, reckon 107.53 (reaction high on Monday) would hold and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 106.94 would extend to 106.88 but 106.65 would remain intact.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is 1,300k vs previous reading of 1,300k.
AceTraderFx July 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 July 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.19
Dollar’s selloff from 107.22 in New York yesterday and intra-day break of previous July’s 106.65 low suggests re-test of June’s 6-week bottom at 106.08 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from June’s 2-month peak of 109.84 to 105.15/25 before prospect of correction.
On the upside, only above 106.65/72 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risks 106.90, break, 107.22/28.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMI at 13:45GMT. Street forecasts are 51.5 and 51.0 vs previous readings of 49.8 and 47.9 respectively.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major