AceTraderForex April 25: Daily Market Outlook on USD/JPY

Trading Discussion Currencies
689

AceTraderFx July 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 July 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.58
Intra-day selloff to a 4-month low at 105.39 suggests decline from March’s 111.71 peak has resumed and further weakness to 105.05 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 104.85/90 and yield correction.

On the upside, above 105.69/70 would risk stronger retracement to 106.16 but 106.43/48 should remain intact.

Data releases today :
Japan total industry activity, leading indicator, coincident index.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectation.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, Dallas Fed manufacturing business on Monday.

690

AceTraderFx July 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 July 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.50
Although dollar’s intra-day rebound from 105.23 in Asia on broad-based recovery in usd suggests recent decline has made a minor low at yesterday’s 4-month bottom at 105.12 and choppy sideways swings would be seen before prospect of another fall, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 104.60/70 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 108.08/18 would risk stronger retracement to 106.43/48.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. consumer confidence at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a dip to 94.5 from previous reading of 98.1. Market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday as the FOMC members commence their 2-day meeting today.

691

AceTraderFx July 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 July 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.05
Despite dollar’s resumption of medium term decline from March’s 111.71 peak to a fresh 4-month trough at 104.78 in New York yesterday on Fed’s dovish hold, subsequent rebound to 105.29 today on usd’s broad-based recovery suggests temporary low is possibly made, above 105.37/40 would yield retracement to 105.68/69 b4 prospect of retreat.

On the downside, below 104.78 would extend aforesaid fall to 104.60 but 104.40 should hold.

There is a slew of data to be released from U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to GDP QQ and GDP deflator at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are -34.1% and 1.1% vs previous readings of -5.0% and 1.6% respectively.

692

AceTraderFx July 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 July 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1868
The single currency’s rally to a 25-month peak at 1.1848 yesterday, then higher to 1.1888 in Asia today suggests medium-term uptrend remains in progress and further gain to 1.1899, then 1.1916/20 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 1.1946/50 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.1806 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.1769/73.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan unemployment rate, industrial output, consumer confidence, construction orders, housing starts, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia PPI.
France GDP, consumer spending, CPI (EU norm), CPI, Germany retail sales, UK nationwide house price, Swiss retail sales, Italy GDP, CPI, CPI (EU norm), retail sales, EU HICP, core HCIP GDP.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE, PCE price index, employment costs, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.

693

AceTraderFx Aug 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.76
Despite dollar’s resumption of medium term decline to a fresh 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 on Friday, subsequent rally to 106.05 in New York, then 106.43 in Asia today suggests temporary bottom is made and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 106.60/70, however, reckon 106.90 should hold.

On the downside, only below 105.50 would risk stronger retracement to 105.05.

There is a slew of manufacturing PMIs to be released from the eurozone today. Pay particular attention to Germany’s figure at 07:55GMT, which is expected to remain unchanged at 50.0.

694

AceTraderFx Aug 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.97
Dollar’s rally from last Fri’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 to 106.47 yesterday suggests medium term decline from March’s 111.71 peak has made a temporary low and subsequent retreat indicates first leg of correction is over and may head back to 105.59/64 before prospect of another rise but 106.90 would remain intact.

On the downside, only below 105.29/33 would bring stronger retracement to 104.78/83.

Data releases on Tuesday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI, CPI, Australia trade balance, imports, exports, retail sales, retail trade, RBA interest rate decision.
Swiss consumer confidence, France budget balance, EU producer prices.
U.S. redbook, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and New Zealand GDT price index.

695

AceTraderFx Aug 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.77

Despite dollar’s retreat from Monday’s 106.47 high to 105.52 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests pullback has possibly ended, above 106.19 needed to confirm and yield re-test of 106.47, break would extend near term upmove from last Friday’s 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 to 106.70/80.

On the downside, only below 105.29/33 would risk weakness to 104.95/00.

Data to be released on Wednesday :

Australia AIG construction index, New Zealand unemployment rate, labour cost index, employment change, Japan Jibun Bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI.

Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.

U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP national employment, trade balance, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.

696

AceTraderFx Aug 06 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 06 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.56
Although dollar’s retreat from this week’s high at 106.47 (Monday) to 105.33 in New York yesterday suggests first leg of correction from last Friday’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 has ended, as long as 105.29/33 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 105.87, then 106.19, break needed to bring re-test of 106.47.

On the downside, only below 105.29/33 would risk weakness to 105.05/10 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, UK BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, Markit construction PMI, Italy industrial output, and U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims.

697

AceTraderFx Aug 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.62

Dollar’s rebound from yesterday’s low at 105.31 to 105.64 in New York, then intra-day break above this level suggests near term decline from Monday’s 106.47 peak has possible ended there and further gain to 105.87 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend to 106.19, break, 106.47 again.

On the downside, below 105.29/31 would risk weakness to 105.05/10 before prospect of another bounce.

All eyes are on U.S. jobs data due out at 12:30GMT, on NFP, street forecast is for an increase of 1.6 million vs prev. reading of 4.8 million whilst unemployment rate is estimated to be 10.5% vs last reading of 11.1%.

698

AceTraderFx Aug10 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.96

As dollar has rebounded after retreat from 106.05 in post-NFP New York Friday to 105.73 in Asia today, suggesting pullback from last Monday’s 106.47 high has possibly ended at 105.31 Thursday, above 106.19 would confirm and bring re-test of 106.47, where break would extend upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 to 106.65, then 106.85/90.

On the downside, only below 105.49 would risk stronger retracement to 105.31/33.

Data out today :
New Zealand ANZ business outlook, ANZ own activity, China PPI, CPI.
Swiss unemployment rate, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index and U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.

699

AceTraderFx Aug 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.11
Despite dollar’s retreat from August’s high at 106.47 to 105.31 last Thursday, subsequent erratic rise and intra-day break of 106.19 resistance suggests pullback has ended and above 106.47 would extend upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 to 106.65/70, however, loss of momentum may cap price below 106.90/00 today.

On the downside, only below 105.49/52 would risk weakness to 105.31/33.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Economy Watchers outlook, Economy Watchers current, machine tool orders, Australia NAB business condition, NAB business confidence.
UK BRC retail sales, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, , Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada housing starts, and U.S. PPI, core PPI, redbook.

700

thanks for the update bro

701

AceTraderFx Aug 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.80
Dollar’s rally from 105.94 in New York yesterday and then break of previous August’s 106.47 high to 106.68 on renewed usd’s strength, then 106.81 today confirms upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month bottom at 104.19 has once again resumed and further headway to 107.28/36 would be seen after consolidation, but 107.53 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the downside, only below 106.44/45 would risk stronger retracement to 106.00/05.

There is a slew of economic data to be released from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to CPI mm and yy at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are 0.3% and 0.8% vs previous readings of 0.6% and 0.6% respectively.

702

AceTraderFx Aug 13 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 13 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.63
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 to a near 3-week high at 107.01 in New York yesterday, intra-day retreat suggests temporary top is in place and stronger retracement to 106.45/47 would be seen before prospect of another rise, above 107.01
would extend to 107.28 but 107.53 should hold.

On the downside, only below 106.19/23 would risk weakness to 105.94, break, 105.69/73.

There is a slew of U.S. data to be released but one should pay particular attention to jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is 1,120k, down from previous reading of 1,186k.

703

AceTraderFx Aug 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.78
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 to a near 3-week high at 107.04 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests temporary top possibly made and choppy sideways swings would be seen before heading to 107.48/53, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 107.78 today.

On the downside, only below 106.47/57 would risk stronger retracement to 106.19/23.

There is a slew of data to be released from the U.S. today but one should pay particular attention to U.S. retail sales and retail sales ex-autos at 12:30GMT.
Street forecasts are 1.9% and 1.3% vs previous readings of 7.5% and 7.3% respectively.

704

AceTraderFx Aug 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.47
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from July’s 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 to a near 3-week peak at 107.04 last Thursday, Friday’s selloff to 106.44 in New York, then 106.41 today suggests temporary top is in place and stronger retracement to 106.19/24 would be seen before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 107.28 should hold and yield retreat.

On the downside, below 105.94 would risk weakness to 105.71, then 105.31/33.

Data to be released later:
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization.
UK Rightmove house .
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing index on Monday.

705

AceTraderFx Aug 19 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 19 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.41
Dollar’s resumption of decline from last Thursday’s 107.04 peak to a 2-week low at 105.11 at Asian open today suggests early correction from July’s 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 has possibly ended and subsequent rebound would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 104.73/78.

On the upside, only above 105.95 would risk gain to 106.06, then 106.30/40.

Data to be released later :
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index, EU current account, HICP, core HICP, Canada CPI, core CPI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, FOMC meeting minutes.

706

AceTraderFx Aug 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.03
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s near 3-week high at 107.04 to a 2-week bottom at 105.11, subsequent strong rebound on usd’s broad-based rally after release of FOMC minutes to 106.21 in Asia today suggests a temporary low has been made and further gain to 106.44/47 would be seen after consolidation but 106.65 may hold.

On the downside, only below 105.60 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 105.29.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany producer prices, Swiss trade balance, industrial production, exports, imports, EU construction output.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, leading index change, and Canada ADP employment change.

707

AceTraderFx Aug 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.45
Despite dollar’s selloff from August’s near 3-week high at 107.04 to 105.11 on Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 106.21 yesterday signals temporary bottom has been made and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another gain, above 106.04 would yield 106.21, then 106.60/65.

On the downside, only below 105.29 would risk re-test of 105.11 but oversold condition should keep price above 104.73/78.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs at 13:45GMT. Street forecasts are 51.9 and 51.0 vs previous readings of 50.9 and 50.0 respectively.

708

AceTraderFx Aug 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

flag_yen DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Aug 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 105.85
Despite dollar’s retreat from last Thursday’s high at 106.21 to 105.45 on Friday, subsequent rebound to 106.07 in New York suggests choppy trading above Wednesday’s low at 105.11 would continue and intra-day sideways swings would bring consolidation before re-test of 106.21, break would head to 106.44 but 106.65/68 may hold.

On the downside, only below 105.45 would risk weakness to 105.29, then possibly 105.11/15 later.

On the data front, the only data due out from the U.S. is Chicago Fed National Activity for July.