AceTraderFx Aug 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Aug 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.18
Dollar’s rise from 105.45 to 106.07 last Friday, then intra-day break of said resistance suggests pullback from Thursday’s 106.21 high has ended and upmove from August’s trough at 105.11 would resume after consolidation and head to 106.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.
On the downside, only below 105.70 would risk weakness to 105.45, break may bring re-test of 105.11.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany GDP, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss non-farm payrolls, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price index, CaseShiller home price index, consumer confidence new home sales, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
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AceTraderFx Aug 26 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 26Aug 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.26
Despite dollar’s selloff from August’s near 3-week high at 107.04 to 105.11 last Wednesday, subsequent rise to 106.57 in New York yesterday suggests pullback has ended and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before re-test of 107.04, break needed to extend upmove from July’s 104.19 trough to 107.20/30 but 107.53 may hold.
On the downside, only below 106.00/10 would risk weakness to 105.70/80.
Data to be released later on Wednesday :
France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense.
AceTraderFx Aug 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Aug 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.02
Despite dollar’s selloff from Tuesday’s high at 106.57 to 105.81 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests pullback has possibly ended, above 106.17/21 would confirm this view and heads back to 106.55/57, where break would extend upmove from August’s 105.11 bottom to 106.80/90.
On the downside, below 105.70/80 would risk weakness to 105.45 before prospect of another gain.
Attention now shifts to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Annual Jackson Hole Symposium at 13:10GMT, where he is scheduled to address the issue of how the central bank will adjust its monetary policy to meet its inflation target. Elsewhere, U.S. will release its GDP at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts for GDP QQ and GDP deflator are -32.5% and -2.0% vs previous readings of -32.9% and -2.1%
AceTraderFx Aug 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Aug 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.11
Despite intra-day break of yesterday’s high at 106.70 to 106.94 in Asia, subsequent selloff on active safe-haven jpy buying on news of Japan PM Abe’s planned resignation suggests upmove from August’s 105.11 trough has made a temporary top there and weakness to 105.61, then 105.45 would be seen after consolidation, break needed to head back to 105.11/16…
On the upside, only above 106.55/57 would risk gain to 106.70, then possibly 106.94 again.
There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but one should pay attention to personal income and personal spending at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are -0.2% and 1.5% vs previous readings of -1.1% and 5.6% respectively.
AceTraderFx Aug 31 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 31 Aug 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.83
Despite dollar’s selloff from Friday’s 106.94 (Asia) high to 105.21 in New York on news of Prime Minister Abe’s resignation, intra-day strong rebound suggests further choppy trading inside recent 107.04-105.11 broad range would continue and stronger retracement to 105.90/00 may be seen before prospect of another fall.
On the downside, below Asia’s 105.30 low would bring re-test of 105.11, break should head to 104.80/90.
In the absence of major U.S. data today, pay attention to comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who is due to speak at 14:30GMT.
AceTraderFx Sept 01 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 01 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.74
Although dollar’s rebound from last Friday’s 105.21 low suggests choppy trading above August’s 105.11 trough would continue, as 106.09 has capped recovery in New York on Monday, consolidation with downside bias remains and below 105.21 would bring re-test of 105.11, break would head to 104.78/83.
On the upside, only above 106.09 may risk gain to 106.52/57 but 106.94 should remain intact.
Data to be released later:
Swiss manufacturing MPI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP, core HICP, unemployment rate, UK Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.05
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Friday’s high at 106.94 to 105.21 in New York, subsequent rebound to 106.15 on Tuesday suggests choppy trading above August’s trough at 105.11 would be seen with upside bias for gain to 106.50/60 before prospect of retreat.
Only above 106.70 would risk re-test of 106.94 while below 105.60 would head back to 105.30/35, then 105.11/21.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK BRC shop price index, nationwide house price index, Australia GDP, Germany retail sales, EU producer prices, Canada labour productivity rate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, factory orders.
AceTraderFx Sept 03 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 03 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.28
Although dollar’s rally from last Friday’s low at 105.21 to as high as 106.34 in Europe today suggests choppy trading above August’s 105.11 trough would continue and marginal gain would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should limit upside at 106.70/80 and yield retreat.
On the downside, only below 105.86 would risk stronger retracement to 105.56/62, then 105.21.
There is a slew of U.S. data to be released today but pay particular attention to U.S. jobless claims (12:30GMT) and ISM non-manufacturing PMI (14:00GMT). Street forecasts are 950k and 57.0 vs previous readings of 1,006k and 58.1 respectively.
AceTraderFx Sept 04 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 04 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.18
Despite yesterday’s rally to 106.55, subsequent fall to 106.01 in late New York on drop in U.S. Treasury yields suggests choppy trading inside recent 107.04-105.11 broad range would continue with downside bias, below 105.86 would bring stronger retracement to 105.60 but last Friday’s 105.21 low should remain intact.
On the upside, only above 106.55/57 risks gain to 106.94, then 107.04 before prospect of retreat.
Market focus is on the release of U.S. jobs report today at 12:30GMT as it will provide the Federal Reserve with what measures it should employ to counter the ongoing stagnant job growth. Street forecasts for non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average earnings mm are 1,400k, 9.8% and 0.0% vs previous readings of 1,736k, 10.2% and 0.2% respectively.
AceTraderFx Sept 07 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 07 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.17
Dollar’s rally from last Monday’s trough at 105.30 to 106.55 last Thursday suggests further choppy trading inside recent broad range of 106.94-105.21 would continue and as long as support at 106.01 holds, upside bias remains and above 106.55 would head to indicated upper level, break would extend to 107.10/20 before prospect of retreat.
On the downside, only below 106.01 would risk stronger retracement to 105.86, then 105.60.
Data to be released later :
Germany industrial output, UK Halifax house prices, EU Sentix index.
U.S. market holiday and Canada market holiday on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.92
Dollar’s erratic fall from last Thursday’s 106.55 high to 105.80 at European open today suggests recent upmove from 105.21 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains, below 105.60/61 would bring re-test of 105.21 but break needed to extend decline from August’s 107.04 peak to 105.11, then 104.80/90.
On the upside, only above 106.38 would risk stronger gain to 106.50/55, but 106.70 may hold.
Data to be released later :
Swiss unemployment rate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada housing starts, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
AceTraderFx Sept 10 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 10 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.05
Dollar’s rally from yesterday’s low at 106.80 (Europe) to 106.27 in New York on rebound in U.S. stocks and yields, then to 106.29 in Asia today suggests pullback from last Thursday’s 106.55 high has possibly ended and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 106.50/55, break would extend to 106.70/80 later.
On the downside, only below 105.80 risks stronger retracement to 105.60 but 105.35/40 may hold.
The U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data (see our EI page for details) and market focus is on the weekly jobless claims as well as continued jobless claims as weekly barometer on U.S. employment situation.
AceTraderFx Sept 11 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 11 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 106.21
Despite dollar’s selloff from last Thursday’s 106.55 top to as low as 105.80 on Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 106.29 in Asia yesterday suggests pullback has possibly ended and as price has rebounded after retreat to 105.99, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 106.55, break would extend to 106.70/80.
On the downside, only below 105.80 would risk stronger retracement to 105.60 but 105.21 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Friday :
Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate.
Canada capacity utilization, and U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Sept 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.98
Despite dollar’s rebound from last Wednesday’s 105.80 low to 106.29 on Thursday, intra-day retreat suggests further choppy trading inside recent 105.60-106.55 broad range would continue with downside bias, however, reckon 105.80 should contain weakness and yield another bounce, above 106.38 would head back to 106.55, then 106.70/80.
Only below 105.80 would risk stronger retracement to 105.60 but 105.30 would remain intact.
Data out today :
China house prices, Japan tertiary industry activity, industrial output, capital utilization.
UK Rightmove house price and EU industrial production on Monday.
AceTraderFx Sept 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.74
Although yesterday’s fall below last Wednesday’s 105.80 low to 105.56 in New York due to weakness in U.S. Treasury yields suggests decline from September’s 106.55 peak has resumed, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 105.21 and yield rebound.
On the upside, above 106.00/10 needed to head back to 106.26/29, then 106.50/55.
Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer and import price index, France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU labour costs, ZEW survey expectations, Canada manufacturing sales.
U.S. NY Fed manufacturing index, import prices, export prices, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization manufacturing output.
AceTraderFx Sept 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.25
Dollar’s erratic fall from September’s 106.55 high suggests re-test of August’s low at 105.11 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from August’s peak at 107.04 to 104.73/78, however, reckon July’s 4-1/2 month trough at 104.19 should hold on first testing.
On the upside, only above 105.81 would risk gain back to 106.00/04 before prospect of retreat.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, core PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, EU trade balance.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Fed interest rate decision, and Canada CPI, BoC core CPI, core CPI.
AceTraderFx Sept 17 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 17 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.81
The greenback’s fall to a 6-week trough at 104.81 in New York morning yesterday and intra-day break below this level to 104.70 signals erratic decline from August’s peak at 107.04 remains in progress and further weakness to 104.59 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above daily support at 104.19 and yield a much-needed rebound later.
On the upside, only above 105.17 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 105.54/56 but resistance at 105.81 should hold.
Pay attention to U.S. jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Street forecast is for a decrease to 850k from previous reading of 884k.
AceTraderFx Sept 18 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 18 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.60
Although dollar’s rebound from yesterday’s fresh 6-week low at 104.53 to 104.86 in Asia today suggests recent decline from August’s high at 107.04 has made a temporary low, intra-day retreat signals recovery has ended and weakness to 104.30/35 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon July’s 104.19 trough should remain intact.
On the upside, only a firm break above 104.86/90 would risk stronger retracement to 105.17.
Pay attention to the release of U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a slight uptick to 75.0 from previous reading of 74.1.
AceTraderFx Sept 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.13
Dollar’s intra-day break of August’s 4-1/2 month low at 104.19 signals medium term decline from March’s 111.71 peak has once again resumed and further weakness to 103.70/80 would be seen after consolidation, however, ‘loss of momentum’ should keep price above 103.55/60 today.
On the upside, only daily close above 104.63 indicates temporary bottom made, risks retracement to 104.86, break, 105.00/05.
Data to be released today :
UK Rightmove house price.
U.S. national activity index and Canada new housing index on Monday.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major