AceTraderFx Sept 23 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 23 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.02
Despite dollar’s erratic rise from Monday’s a 6-month low at 104.01 to 105.19 in Asia today, intra-day retreat suggests first leg of correction has possibly ended and stronger retracement to 104.41/46 would be seen after consolidation, break would yield 104.28 before prospect of rebound later.
On the upside, only above 105.26/30 would risk gain to 105.51/56, then 105.85/90.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 24 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 24 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.36
Dollar’s rise from Monday’s 6-month low at 104.01 to 105.48 on Wednesday suggests medium term decline from March’s top at 111.71 has made a temporary bottom there and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another upmove to 105.81, then 106.00/10.
On the downside, only below 104.89/93 would risk stronger retracement to 104.63 but 104.41 should remain intact.
As there is no major economic data due from U.S. today, one should keep an eye out on the newswires as there are several Federal Reserve speakers who will be delivering speeches today.
AceTraderFx Sept 25 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 25 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.43
Dollar’s rally from Monday’s 6-month low at 104.01 to as high as 105.54 in Asia today suggests medium decline from March’s top at 111.71 has made a temporary bottom there and further headway to 106.05/09 would be seen after consolidation, then 106.29 later.
On the downside, only below 105.07 would risk stronger retracement to 104.89/93 but 104.41 should remain intact.
Pay attention to the release of of U.S. durable goods and durable goods ex-transport at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts are 1.5% and 1.2% vs previous readings of 11.4% and 2.6% respectively.
AceTraderFx Sept 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Sept 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.60
Intra-day brief break of last Friday’s high at 105.69 suggests upmove from last Monday’s 6-month trough at 104.01 has once again resumed and further gain to 106.05 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 106.29.
On the downside, only below 105.21 would risk stronger weakness to 104.89/93 but 104.41 should remain intact.
Economic data due on Tuesday :
EU/UK Brexit meeting, France consumer confidence, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP .
U.S. goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, redbook, CS home price, consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Oct 05 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 05 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.66
Despite dollar’s fall from last Wednesday’s 2-week high at 105.80 to 104.95 on Friday, intra-day rise on risk-on trade after meeting renewed buying at 105.29 (New Zealand) suggests pullback has ended and re-test of 105.80 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend upmove from September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 to 106.00/10 but 106.29 should hold.
On the downside, only below 104.93/95 would risk weakness to 104.69/74.
Data to be released later :
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Monday.
AceTraderFx Oct 08 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 08 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.98
Although dollar’s retreat from yesterday’s 3-week high at 106.10 suggests recent upmove from September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 has made a temporary top, as long as 105.79/80 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 106.26/29, then 106.50/55, however, loss of momentum should cap price below 106.70/75 today.
On the downside, only below 105.48/53 would risk stronger retracement to 105.26/29, then possibly 104.95/00.
Data to be released on Thursday:
UK RICS housing price balance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada leading index, housing starts and U.S. jobless claims.
AceTraderFx Oct 09 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 09 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.96
As dollar has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 105.82 (Asia), suggesting re-test of Wednesday’s 3-week high at 106.10 would be forthcoming, break would extend upmove from September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 to 106.50/55 before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.
On the downside, only a daily close below 105.80 would risk stronger retracement to 105.48/53.
Data to be released on Friday :
UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, France industrial output, Italy industrial output.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate, and U.A. wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
AceTraderFx Oct 12 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 12 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.54
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from September’s 6-month trough t 104.01 to a 3-week high of 106.10 last Wednesday, subsequent fall to 105.44 (Asia) today suggests temporary top is made and further weakness to 104.95/00 would be seen after consolidation before prospect of rebound.
On the upside, only above 105.82/86 would risk re-test of 106.10, break, 106.26/29.
On the data front, Germany will release wholesale price index at 06:00 GMT and we have a few ECB officials due to speak later, please refer to our EI page for more details.
AceTraderFx Oct 14 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 14 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.40
Dollar’s fall from last Wednesday’s 3-week high at 106.10 to 105.25 on Monday suggests upmove from September’s 6-month trough of 104.01 has made a temporary top and as price has retreated after yesterday’s rebound to 105.62, consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 104.95, break would head to 104.60/65.
On the upside, only a daily close above 105.62 risks gain to 105.98/00, then 106.10.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, PPI, core PPI, redbook.
AceTraderFx Oct 15 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 15 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.21
Despite dollar’s resumption of upmove from September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 to a 3-week high at 106.10 last Wednesday, subsequent fall to 105.04 in New York yesterday suggests temporary top is made and intra-day rebound would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another fall but 104.75/80 should hold, yield another bounce.
On the upside, only above 105.62 would risk gain to 105.80/82, break, 105.98/00.
Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia employment change, unemployment rate, China PPI, CPI, Japan tertiary industry activity index.
Swiss producer and import price index, France CPI 9EU norm), CPI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index, import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and Canada ADP employment change.\
AceTraderFx Oct 16 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 16 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.23
Despite dollar’s rebound from Wednesday’s 105.04 low to 105.49 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat and intra-day weakness to 105.20 in Asia suggests recovery has possibly ended and below 105.04 would extend decline from October’s 106.10 high to 104.50/55 before prospect of another bounce.
On the upside, only above 105.62 would risk stronger gain to 105.82.
Data to be released later :
Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), trade balance, EU trade balance, HICP, core HICP.
U.S. retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, University of Michigan sentiment index, and Canada manufacturing sales
AceTraderFx Oct 20 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 20 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 105.54
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from October’s 3-week high at 106.10 to 105.04 last Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 105.61 today suggests temporary low is made and marginal gain would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 105.82 should hold, yield retreat.
On the downside, below 105.31 would head to 105.04/09, break, 104.95.
On the data front, U.S. will release building permits, housing starts at 12:30 GMT, followed by redbook at 12:55 GMT. There will also be a few Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for more details.
AceTraderFx Oct 21 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 21 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.88
Dollar’s intra-day selloff on usd’s broad-based weakness and then break of previous October’s 104.95 low suggests recent upmove from September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 has made a temporary top at October’s 106.10 high and stronger retracement to 104.60/70 would be seen after consolidation but 104.41/45 may hold, yield rebound.
On the upside, only above 105.31/36 would risk gain to 105.50/55 but 105.82 should remain intact.
Data to be released later:
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, PSNB, PSNCR, DCLG house price index.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, and Canada CPI, core CPI, new housing price index, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos.
AceTraderFx Oct 22 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 22 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.60
Although dollar’s rebound after yesterday’s selloff to a near 1-month low at 104.35 suggests decline from October’s 106.10 high to retrace upmove from September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 has made a temporary bottom, intra-day retreat from 104.74 (Asia) has retained bearishness for weakness to 104.01/06 later.
On the upside, only above 104.95 would risk stronger retracement to 105.18/20, then 105.50/52.
Data to be released later on Thursday:
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, France business climate, UK CBI trends orders, EU consumer confidence.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, existing home sales, leading index, KC Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Oct 27 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 27 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.82
Despite dollar’s strong rebound from last Wednesday’s near 1-month low at 104.35 to 105.05 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat to 104.68 today suggests recovery has possibly ended and consolidation would be seen before re-test of 104.35, break would extend marginal weakness but September’s 104.01 trough should hold on first testing.
On the upside, only above 105.05/10 would risk gain to 105.30/40 but 105.74 should remain intact.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
France producer prices, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, redbook, monthly home price, CaseShiller home price index, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.
AceTraderFx Oct 28 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 28 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.19
Dollar’s intra-day firm break of previous October’s 104.35 low on cross-buying in yen suggests re-test of September’s 6-month trough at 104.01 would be seen after consolidation, where break would extend decline from 111.71 (March) to 103.66, however, loss of momentum should keep price above 103.10 today.
On the upside, only above 104.55/56 would prolong choppy sideways swings, risks retacement to 104.83/88.
On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications at 11:00 GMT followed by trade balance and wholesale inventories at 12:30 GMT.
AceTraderFx Oct 29 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 29 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.30
Although dollar’s rebound after yesterday’s fall to a 5-week low at 104.12 suggests recent decline has made a temporary bottom, intra-day retreat from 104.50 (Asia) signals recovery has ended and re-test of September’s 104.01 trough would be seen after consolidation, break would extend fall from 111.71 (March) to 103.80 but 103.66 should hold today.
On the upside, only above 104.88/93 would risk stronger retracement to 105.00/05, then, 105.20/30.
On the data front, U.S. will release third quarter GDP at 12:30 GMT, with street forecast at 31.0% versus prior reading of -31.4%. At the same time, weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims will be released, with Reuters poll at 775k and 7.700M respectively versus previous readings of 787k and 8.373M. As U.S. Presidential election closes in, traders should pay attention to related headlines.
AceTraderFx Oct 30 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 30 Oct 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.33
Although dollar’s strong rebound from yesterday’s 5-week low at 104.03 to 104.72 on usd’s broad-based strength suggests choppy trading above September’s 6-month 104.01 trough would continue, intra-day retreat to 104.13 in Asia indicates recovery has possibly ended but below 104.01/03 needed to extend medium term downtrend to 103.66 before correction.
On the upside, only above 104.72 would head to this week’s high at 105.05 (Monday), break, 105.30/40 later.
On the calendar front, there is a slew of data from U.S. today, please refer to our EI page for more details. Focus will be on personal income and person spending, with street forecasts at 0.4% and 1.0% respectively versus prior readings of -2.7% and 1.0%.
AceTraderFx Nov 02 : Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time : 02 Nov 2020 09:30GMT
USD/JPY - 104.80
Despite dollar’s resumption of decline from October’s 106.10 high to a 5-week low of 104.03 last Thursday, subsequent erratic rise to 104.74 Friday, then intra-day break there suggests choppy trading above September’s 6-month 104.01 trough would continue and marginal gain is likely, however, reckon 105.05 would cap upside and yield retreat.
On the downside, below 104.25/30 would head back to 104.01/03, then, 103.83/88.
On the calendar front, U.S. will release Markit manufacturing PMI at 14:45 GMT, followed by construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI at 15:00 GMT. Also, as president election closes in, traders should pay attention to related headlines.
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major